Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
I don't think I or the guy who wrote the article thought the race was a slam dunk. The article makes it clear that Hogan, the sitting Republican governor, is quite popular (although potentially vulnerable in a blue wave election). The point is that Jealous made an explicit argument for the Lost Tribe in his campaign (see the part that I highlighted in my post). The claim is that by rallying the base, they could somehow overcome Hogan's popular appeal. This is the Lost Tribe theory in a nutshell, that there is a group of voters who have disengaged but will suddenly turn out in droves if a candidate would only espouse policies sufficiently far to the left.
Rush Limbaugh and many other yakkers on the Right buy into it 100% as well, although of course they claim that the Lost Tribe consists of a bunch of conservatives wandering in the wilderness.
Since the article was about "winnable" governorships that the Dems are blowing their opportunity on, I pointed out (and rightly so, I feel) that it really is misleading to call that one "winnable". Hogan's too popular and even has (before Jealous was confirmed) bipartisan support from not-quite-blue-dog Dems.
And the other two, I think it's yet to be seen, but they're equally opportunities that the GOP created by nominating turds. Georgia's not yet purple and certainly not ready to go blue. Florida is in the mood to elect another Republican, I think. They came out in strength for Trump. I'd love to see the GOP lose all three but I don't think they get more than one and maybe not that.
Ergo, I think the article is mischaracterizing the situation. It's basically a plug for moderate corporatist Democrat candidates.