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2018 mid-term election

What's the gain in the House? I heard someone say it was 38. And to think given the massive gerrymandering. I read that the GOP won 50.3 percent of the votes in NC and won 10 of 13 seats. If the Gerrymandering wasn't so absurd it would have been close to 50.
 
In Arizone McSally has COnceded to Sinema.
Rumor has it that McSally will still reach the Senate....she will be appointed to McCain's seat but still it's a pick up for the Dems.
 
dudalb said:
In Arizone McSally has COnceded to Sinema.
Rumor has it that McSally will still reach the Senate....she will be appointed to McCain's seat but still it's a pick up for the Dems.
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The gov may have made the deal to get the national microscope off of them. It certainly wouldn't be from the WH. Donnie Johnny hate him some losers.

But I don't know if Ducey can handle Meghan In Your Face every night on the news. As McCain was dying McSally continued to slam him.

Are there any Arizonans in the house? The law is confusing. The gov was supposed to appoint an interim replacement until the next GE. Since the nominations were closed for the year and they didn't want to chance a brief nominating period where Sheriff Crazy got nominated, they waited. So now what does the replacement term equal? Two years until the 2020 GE? Or four to ride out McCain's original term? If it's just two years he should probably appoint McCain's daughter. It might hold back the rest of the blue wave that's taking over AZ. The dark red McSally area of the map is the northwestern quadrant (and not really 1/4). The Dems took 5/9 in the House. "Red State" Arizona is no more. (That'll happen when the two largest employers in the state are universities. )
 
dudalb said:
In Arizone McSally has COnceded to Sinema.
Rumor has it that McSally will still reach the Senate....she will be appointed to McCain's seat but still it's a pick up for the Dems.
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I don't see the governor doing that. McSally was rejected by voters - why appoint her? I actually think Jeff Flake has a chance at it. Of course I could be wrong.
 
Minoosh said:
I don't see the governor doing that. McSally was rejected by voters - why appoint her? I actually think Jeff Flake has a chance at it. Of course I could be wrong.
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I don't think a narrow margin loss means she was rejected by the voters.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I don't think a narrow margin loss means she was rejected by the voters.
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Well, let's ask the zero-sum man in the street.

"Excuse me, sir, are you going to pay for that ferret; I'm afraid you can't leave the store with it. Oh, sorry, that's your "hair"? Who'd a guessed, eh? So tell us, anonymous man in the street.... What do you call the person who finishes second in an election?"

"Loser!"

I hope the governor does appoint her because the cross-aisle fun would be wonderful. "Thank you, er, (gesturing air quotes) "senator", perhaps we could hear from the person who the people of your state actually elected, now!"
 
The Great Zaganza said:
changing to an Instant-runoff system would avoid having these losers that only 49% of voters wanted anyway.
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Yep.

One of the basic questions of how a democracy should run is whether it is more desirable for most voters to get their preferred candidate or most voters to get a candidate they are okay with.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
changing to an Instant-runoff system would avoid having these losers that only 49% of voters wanted anyway.
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Ranked choice voting would also do this without the additional cost of having another election. Additionally, given the obstacles to voting in the US making people go through that twice seems mean.
 
Stacko said:
Ranked choice voting would also do this without the additional cost of having another election. Additionally, given the obstacles to voting in the US making people go through that twice seems mean.
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Ranked Choice / Instant Runoff are the same thing.
 
Heck, if we are going to look at IRV, lets go a step further and implement single transferable vote at least for the House.
 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header
phiwum said:
iI guess I didn't realize all that. Perhaps I undersold their victory.

Losing four seats in the Senate is significant, popular vote notwithstanding.
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Tsukasa Buddha said:
Haven't lost 4 seats yet.
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With Sinema's victory, the Dems will only lose, at most, two seats in the Senate.

Of the two remaining, Florida seems a very likely Republican victory. Mississippi will have a runoff election, which will probably go Republican as well. But I suppose odd things can happen with a runoff election.

I mostly followed 538's poll results, they overestimated the Dems' chance, but not by much. The Republicans picked up one more Senate seat (assuming both outstanding Senate seats go GOP) and held onto (probably) one or two more House seats than the results that 538 showed to be most probable. There are (I think) ten more house seats still listed as undecided, four leaning Dem and six leaning GOP. That would match 538's "deluxe" pre-election forecast, but would be two fewer Democratic seats than the "classic" forecast showed.
 
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acbytesla said:
What's the gain in the House? I heard someone say it was 38. And to think given the massive gerrymandering. I read that the GOP won 50.3 percent of the votes in NC and won 10 of 13 seats. If the Gerrymandering wasn't so absurd it would have been close to 50.
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North Carolina state legislative districts follow the same pattern. Designed to give the Republicans a clear majority regardless of the will of the voters. When a Democrat managed to win the race for governor two years ago the legislature restricted the powers of that office in a lame duck session.

Wisconsin is following that example. After Scott Walker lost his bid for another term the state legislature started work on reducing the powers of the governor.
 
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SOme are saying McSally's mistake was in kissing up to Donald Trump. It cost her moderate voters.
Too bad, looking at McSally's record, she is the kind of Republican who, in another reality, I could have supported.
 
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