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2018 mid-term election

I agree that a lot depends on these elections - but it's not just Congress - there are also governorships and AG positions up for grabs. As long as Democrats manage to do well somewhere I'll remain a bit hopeful.

The state houses are very important this election and all of them up to 2024 when reapportionment viz the 2020 Census will start coming into play. In the precursor world of the Reagan years Republicans were (wisely) making plans to tackle organization at state levels, strictly in preparation for a census yet to come for ten years. And it worked. The Dems need more Virginias and less North Carolinas. A governorship alone isn't enough; they need to take state assemblies in purple states (or "take back", e.g.VA, PA, OH, MI).

ETA: The Dems may actually even-out the governorship tallies. Even RCP has the Dems projected to gain 8 governor's mansions.
 
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True.
No question Democrats could find plenty of Silicon valley types that would design a Blue Map for 2024 that would gerrymander Republicans out of legislature altogether.
And the new SCOTUS made it clear that this would be ok.
 
I received two different political ads in the mail on the same day, that both essentially said "The Democrats are coming for your guns." We've been hearing that for so long, it must be a very complicated and elaborate plan.
 
Some mixed news regarding polling and the midterm election predictions.

From: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...se-chances-are-down-does-that-make-any-sense/
...President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency... His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent...
...
Republicans have been moving in the wrong direction in our House model, however. The three different versions of our model — Lite, Classic and Deluxe — each show slightly different results, but they all have Republicans at or near their all-time lows. GOP chances of retaining control of the House are down to 14 percent (about 1 chance in 7) in the Classic model, our default version.


(Yes I do recognize that polling is not always accurate and events can cause shifts prior to the election. But, the source of this particular piece was the one that gave Trump a higher chance of victory in 2016 than other sources.)
 
Some mixed news regarding polling and the midterm election predictions.

From: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...se-chances-are-down-does-that-make-any-sense/
...President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency... His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent...
...
Republicans have been moving in the wrong direction in our House model, however. The three different versions of our model — Lite, Classic and Deluxe — each show slightly different results, but they all have Republicans at or near their all-time lows. GOP chances of retaining control of the House are down to 14 percent (about 1 chance in 7) in the Classic model, our default version.


(Yes I do recognize that polling is not always accurate and events can cause shifts prior to the election. But, the source of this particular piece was the one that gave Trump a higher chance of victory in 2016 than other sources.)

I have to confess. I think polling is less accurate than ever. Good polling is dependent on getting a representative sample. In the days when everyone had a landline and before voice mail and call screening this was tough, but a hell of a lot easier. While im still convinced it can work, it may be less reliable. I bet that the margin of error is much larger than their estimates.
 
2018 is the perfect time for Forecasting to redeem itself - or prove it is worthless:
There are so many races for Congress, Governor or AG that we should get massive data about who was right or wrong.
 
Socialism is evil, y'all.

At this point, it's basically "We are going to spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children, what it once was like in America when men were free.".

I guess the other party is no longer just people who disagree with you, but downright the enemy of civilisation.
 
Some mixed news regarding polling and the midterm election predictions.

From: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...se-chances-are-down-does-that-make-any-sense/
...President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency... His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent...
...
Republicans have been moving in the wrong direction in our House model, however. The three different versions of our model — Lite, Classic and Deluxe — each show slightly different results, but they all have Republicans at or near their all-time lows. GOP chances of retaining control of the House are down to 14 percent (about 1 chance in 7) in the Classic model, our default version.


(Yes I do recognize that polling is not always accurate and events can cause shifts prior to the election. But, the source of this particular piece was the one that gave Trump a higher chance of victory in 2016 than other sources.)

Apparently, Trump has some faith in the polling: He's cranked the outrageous lying and fear-mongering up to 11 to compensate, as you'd expect from a sociopathic con-artist. Both sides know it's all about turnout.
 
Some mixed news regarding polling and the midterm election predictions.

From: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...se-chances-are-down-does-that-make-any-sense/
...President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency... His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent...
...
Republicans have been moving in the wrong direction in our House model, however. The three different versions of our model — Lite, Classic and Deluxe — each show slightly different results, but they all have Republicans at or near their all-time lows. GOP chances of retaining control of the House are down to 14 percent (about 1 chance in 7) in the Classic model, our default version.


(Yes I do recognize that polling is not always accurate and events can cause shifts prior to the election. But, the source of this particular piece was the one that gave Trump a higher chance of victory in 2016 than other sources.)

The thing about the House race is you always have local issues which can be more importsant then the national issues.
 
Senate slipping away as Dems fight to preserve blue wave

In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.

Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats’ narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.

Public and private polling suggests the GOP is getting more excited as Nov. 6 approaches.

-- Associated Press (Oct 23, 2018)


The blue trickle. Better luck next time, Dimms!
 
I will say the biggest impact, even beyond the actual results, of this midterm is going to give us a clearer picture going forward of is to what degree Trump is influencing mainstream politics.

Trump has made the midterms, like everything, all about him and, at least from where I'm sitting here in NE Florida, how close to Trump you are is the only talking point any of the candidates want to throw out so to what degree Trump supported candidates win or lose will be good political information going forward for all political stripes.
 
Senate slipping away as Dems fight to preserve blue wave

In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.

Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats’ narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.

Public and private polling suggests the GOP is getting more excited as Nov. 6 approaches.

-- Associated Press (Oct 23, 2018)TSenate slipping away as Dems fight to preserve blue wave

In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.

Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats’ narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.

Public and private polling suggests the GOP is getting more excited as Nov. 6 approaches.

-- Associated Press (Oct 23, 2018)
The blue trickle. Better luck next time, Dimms!

Strange euphemisms for fear and gullibility.
 
. . . "The Democrats are coming for your guns." . . .
Had a biologist from our state wildlife agency come speak to one of my classes last week. Ours is one of those agencies that takes $0 in state taxes: funding comes from licensing, excise taxes on guns, ammo, and fishing kit, etc.

For years they've been flush with cash from – their words (in private, at least) the "Obama Bump" – which is a big increase in cash flow 'cause so many people are worried that Obama's coming for their guns and ammo. The more folks stockpile the more our agency has cash to blow on important stuff like more studies of deer, turkey, and quail. :rolleyes: This continues, despite Obama being in arguably less a position to do that now than when he was President (0.00, in both cases).

Anyway, my speaker explained after class that a lot of resentment is building across state agencies because of this. Whilst the wildlife folks are rolling in the dough, all the other agencies are broke.
 
A little more good news for the Democrats on the polling front.

From: https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...trump-has-a-lot-of-impact-on-who-they-back-in
The USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released Thursday found that 58 percent of likely voters said Trump will have "a lot" of impact when they head to the voting booth. Just more than one-third -- 35 percent -- of the respondents said they will oppose Trump and 23 percent will vote to support him.

So, they have a slight edge for people who are using the mid-terms as a 'referendum' on how Trump is doing.
 
The joy of electronic voting:

The secretary of state’s office said Friday that there have been reported issues with Hart eSlate voting machines, which are used in around 30 percent of counties statewide and feature a wheel for selecting candidates and buttons to move from screen to screen. But it says they are caused by voters themselves and often occur when they complete and submit ballots too quickly.

“The Hart eSlate machines are not malfunctioning, the problems being reported are a result of user error — usually voters hitting a button or using the selection wheel before the screen is finished rendering,” said Sam Taylor, spokesman for the office of Secretary of State Rolando Pablos, who was appointed by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

...

Still, in a statement to supporters, Cruz cited “multiple reports” of race selections changing and added “once you select the Republican party ticket, please be patient and do not select ‘next’ until the ballot has populated all of the selections.”

An advisory to county clerks and elections administrators issued earlier this week by Keith Ingram, the secretary of state’s office’s director of elections, said, “We have heard from a number of people voting on Hart eSlate machines that when they voted straight ticket, it appeared to them that the machine had changed one or more of their selections to a candidate from a different party.”

The Texas Democratic Party called the issue “a malfunction,” said it was causing Democrats to inadvertently vote for Cruz and accused the secretary of state’s office of not doing enough to warn voters of potential issues.

Party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said in a statement that “Texas’ Republican government blamed voters and did nothing.” He called for a statewide public service announcement to warn voters, training for poll workers on the issue and removal of “all malfunctioning machines.”

Taylor said Friday that his office “has already trained election officials across the state” while also instructing “election administrators to post additional signage in multiple languages” and requiring county officials to keep “a detailed, meticulous log of any malfunctioning machines, and remove any machines that are malfunctioning.”

Taylor also said his office “has no legal authority whatsoever to force any” voting machine vendors “to make upgrades if their voting systems are otherwise in compliance with federal and state law,” and that Hart eSlate’s system was certified in 2009. He said counties are responsible for purchasing their own new voting equipment.

“We will continue to educate Texas voters using existing resources,” Taylor said, “and urge all Texans casting a ballot to take their time, slow down, and carefully review their ballot before casting one.”

Linky.
 

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