2016 Arctic Sea Ice Thread

[aleCcowaN]

Arctic sea ice volume reached a maximum last April 21st, with ~22,700 cubic kilometres.

Same date but 1,700 below last year's and about 1000 and 500 below 2007's and 2012's.

Nice to have met you. Bye!

 

[BenBurch]

And (though off topic a bit) look at Greenland.

 

[lomiller]

NSIDC has a provisional fix for their date set and the satellite issues that caused it to be pulled, and the news isn't good at all.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

[Mikemcc]

Tamino has a 'good' update on this. Given that I am in the UK, variability in the outflow from Greenland and the Arctic are not amounting to an entertaining outlook for the UK climate.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/05/16/arctic-dive/

 

[macdoc]

Staring down the barrel of the storm gun..

How many named storms since Nov??

 

[BenBurch]

Looks like most of the thick, old ice is about to be swept down the Fram Strait...

 

[BenBurch]

A remarkable amount of open water for this season;

 

[macdoc]

Yup ....summer conditions in May
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/en...=Science&section=australia&utm_hp_ref=science

good animation

 

[BenBurch]

Svalbard is effectively ice-free. In May. I think this might be the year.

 

[CapelDodger]

Svalbard is effectively ice-free. In May. I think this might be the year.

Someone had to say it first. I've held myself back, but it's taken a white-knuckle effort recently.

 

[BenBurch]

I am watching the NSIDC concentration map, and it is really clear that ice mass is falling as precipitously as ice extent. Huge areas go from white to blue every day. And a lot of the think ice not bound to coastlines is moving towards the Fram Strait right now. A substantial amount has already rounded the bend.

 

[BenBurch]

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.png that's the link to that map - they have made it hard to find recently.

 

[BenBurch]

Here is where I wish we had MHaze still. I'd love to see him spin THIS.

 

[Meadmaker]

Oops. I had to delete the original contents of this post. Posted in the wrong thread. Ironically, a thread about flat earth belief had recently posted a polar projection map, and I thought I had clicked the link to that thread instead of this one. I'll leave it to others to note any other similarities.

ETA: As long as I'm here, I would like to thank Ben for this series of threads. Very informative.

 

[BenBurch]

You're most welcome.

 

[Mikemcc]

Svalbard is effectively ice-free. In May. I think this might be the year.

Ok, it's primarily driven by a huge El-Nino, but if this is the first year to experience effectively ice-free conditions then it does vindicate Prof Maslowski. Even he back off from his initial prediction of 2016 +/- 3 years

 

[macdoc]

Does anyone here know the earliest date IPCC projected + 1C globally even on the extreme projection.

My search shows 2020-2025 ....hard to read the graph accurately but certainly did not seem before 2020.
We seem to be looking at 1.3+ in 2016 and I think 1.2 in 2015 ....- that might put the decade over +1 tho a chilly La Nina might knock that down.

The way the ice is disappearing I'm thinking albedo changes are going to come into play at both ends of the seasons.

How much weight is the insane "above average" temps in the Arctic given in a global assessment.?

 

[CapelDodger]

Here is where I wish we had MHaze still. I'd love to see him spin THIS.

So many have dropped by the wayside. Alas poor Haig, Herald of The Pause; drowned in a freak hunting accident, so I've heard.

 

[CapelDodger]

Ok, it's primarily driven by a huge El-Nino, but if this is the first year to experience effectively ice-free conditions then it does vindicate Prof Maslowski. Even he back off from his initial prediction of 2016 +/- 3 years

Aren't you glad you didn't?

This has been high on the list of "failed predictions" since at least 2010, having been recast as "around 2013", and always seemed a very good bet to me. Or rather, it seemed a bad bet that no sufficient event would happen in that period to create ice-free conditions. For diminishing values of "sufficient".

 

[macdoc]

Alas poor Haig, Herald of The Pause; drowned in a freak hunting accident, so I've heard.

Seriously ...or just an excuse to vanish?