BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
Hope so!
2016 Arctic Sea Ice Thread
- Thread starter BenBurch
- Start date
Hope so!
macdoc
Philosopher
Yes ...I noted that ....if you read my posts you'd see I said the open season will get longer and longer - similar to that in the Great Lakes. The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere on earth with astonishing increases.....even in winter.
this is winter now.....
Yeah it's an El Nino year but the weakness in the jet stream which is shifting the Arctic vortex out of place is not El Nino generated.
The Arctic dipole has been discussed here since 2009 I think....it's where the continents are cooler than the surrounding oceans.
The change in biome in the Barents sea is just a taste of the shifts coming in the Arctic where it's not 1-2 degrees of change but 6-12 degrees C of change.
The heat along the western seaboard is destroying sea life all along the coast.
The Arctic is the canary.....and it's screeching...
http://mashable.com/2016/02/05/arctic-sea-ice-hits-record-low-for-january/#asnidvGTqiqBUnusually warm Arctic winter stuns scientists with record low ice extent for January
Computer model visualization of total precipitable water across the Arctic region.IMAGE: EARTH SIMULATOR
BY ANDREW FREEDMAN
FEB 06, 2016
Right about now, Arctic sea ice should be building up toward its annual maximum, making most of the region impenetrable to all but the most hardened icebreakers. Instead, January and indeed much of the winter so far has been unusually mild throughout large parts of the Arctic.
A freak storm brought temperatures to near the freezing point, or 32 degrees Fahrenheit, near the North Pole for a short time in late December and early January, and other storms have repeatedly acted like space heaters plopped on top of the globe, turning nascent sea ice to slush and eventually, to open water.
Nothing is as it should be for this time of year across a wide swath of the Arctic. Alaska has had not yet had a winter, with record warmth enveloping much of the state along with anemic snow depth.
this is winter now.....
Yeah it's an El Nino year but the weakness in the jet stream which is shifting the Arctic vortex out of place is not El Nino generated.
The Arctic dipole has been discussed here since 2009 I think....it's where the continents are cooler than the surrounding oceans.
The change in biome in the Barents sea is just a taste of the shifts coming in the Arctic where it's not 1-2 degrees of change but 6-12 degrees C of change.
The heat along the western seaboard is destroying sea life all along the coast.
The Arctic is the canary.....and it's screeching...
“For the Arctic this is definitely the strangest winter I’ve ever seen," said Mark Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado, which tracks sea and land ice around the world.
Arctic sea level pressure and air temperature anomalies during January 2016.
IMAGE: NSIDC.
For example, New York City received more snow on Friday morning alone — 2.5 inches — than Fairbanks, Alaska, which set a record for the lowest amount of snow between Dec. 1 and Jan. 31 since records began there in 1915.
Fairbanks had just 1.8 inches of snow during the period, which was more than 20 inches below average, and about the same amount of snow that fell in New York City in one hour during a blizzard on Jan. 22-23.
Near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic Ocean averaged a staggering 13 degrees Fahrenheit, or 6 degrees Celsius, above average during January, according to the NSIDC.
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CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
Indeed. One has to think that when the Sun is down for months on end there's going to be a chance of ice. Whether it would require ice-breakers is more debatable.
macdoc
Philosopher
No question - but the sun is not the sole factor these days by any means...heat is pumped up from the tropics and it's warming faster in winter....
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/thinning-ice-leads-winter-warming-arctic
BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
OK so we are above the three-weeks-ago maximum, so we have not yet reached maximum for the year, but it still is not looking good at all.
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
If somebody cares to compare extents to date.
Northern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere
- NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv (2015-2016)
- NH_seaice_extent_final.csv (1979-2014)
bytewizard
Master Poster
I have read many climate change threads and have not seen what seems to me to be answers to 2 of the most basic questions. I constantly read of temperature increases/decreases of .5 or 3 degrees, etc.. over time.
Question 1- What is the current average global temperature?
Question 2- If it is too high or too low, what temperature should it be and why that particular temperature?
Question 1- What is the current average global temperature?
Question 2- If it is too high or too low, what temperature should it be and why that particular temperature?
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#Absolute_temperatures_v._anomalies
Anomalies (ie changes compared to a baseline such as the 20th century average) are usually used when discussing climate change, rather than absolute temperatures. See the link for the reasons.
It's a rapid change in temperature that causes problems, rather than any particular value.
bytewizard
Master Poster
Thanks Pixel42
macdoc
Philosopher
It's also misleading to look at global averages when it is regional effects...particularly in the Arctic which show the most dramatic changes and challenges the biomes to react quickly.
The earth has seen many extremes and biomes including humans adapt.
This change in 300 years has pushed us into global temps not seen since the Eemian
the troubling aspect is CO2 levels haven't been this high for over a million years.
Where it is we could cope with long term....hence the push to keep it to 1.5C above 20th Century average.
It's where it may go if we continue our current practices that is cause for concern....tho a loss of Arctic ice will come with economic benefits for some nations. Certain types of fisheries already have benefitted and transpolar major shipping is lining up.
There is no practical forseeable means of going back to pre-industrial levels - that would have its own set of consequences.
So we try and slow the process and cap the change at a global average 1.5 C above 20th century. That leaves the Arctic still 6C or so above the local average a the time. Huge change, many consequences in biome and weather.
Tracking the Arctic sea ice which has been in a rapidly declining spiral since we started satellite tracking in the 70s is a way of keeping track of the physical impacts on the Arctic the rising global temperature creates.
I find this a useful visual
the 2016 section may be thinner yet
This is an excellent resource for climate developed and maintained by working climate scientists
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/
The earth has seen many extremes and biomes including humans adapt.
This change in 300 years has pushed us into global temps not seen since the Eemian
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian
the troubling aspect is CO2 levels haven't been this high for over a million years.
Where it is we could cope with long term....hence the push to keep it to 1.5C above 20th Century average.
It's where it may go if we continue our current practices that is cause for concern....tho a loss of Arctic ice will come with economic benefits for some nations. Certain types of fisheries already have benefitted and transpolar major shipping is lining up.
There is no practical forseeable means of going back to pre-industrial levels - that would have its own set of consequences.
So we try and slow the process and cap the change at a global average 1.5 C above 20th century. That leaves the Arctic still 6C or so above the local average a the time. Huge change, many consequences in biome and weather.
Tracking the Arctic sea ice which has been in a rapidly declining spiral since we started satellite tracking in the 70s is a way of keeping track of the physical impacts on the Arctic the rising global temperature creates.
I find this a useful visual
the 2016 section may be thinner yet
This is an excellent resource for climate developed and maintained by working climate scientists
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
You are covered in nits?
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
You are asking the wrong question. The question is "what temperature are we all adapted to"?
BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
Guys, ICE discussion ONLY. Please.
I shall ask for some moderator action if this does not stop.
I shall ask for some moderator action if this does not stop.
Jules Galen
Banned
- Joined
- Jun 17, 2013
- Messages
- 3,726
From what I've read, that's a pretty accurate chart. I Thank You for posting it. As a a result, if these trends continue, then I think the Polar Bear better become an even better swimmer than he is now.
On the bright side, I hear the waves in the Arctic Ocean are just begging to be surfed, and it's going to get better as there is less and less Ice.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/surfing/9940164/Endless-winter-Arctic-surfing.html
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"During a recent mission off the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, a Norwegian Coast Guard icebreaker encountered unusual winter conditions for an area just 800 miles from the North Pole.
Open water."
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/i...-blue-arctic/?platform=hootsuite#.Vts63_krLre
"Larsen told me that he has observed “big changes” in the Arctic during his nearly 25 years at sea. In addition to shrinking in extent, “most of the ice we encounter now is young — just one year old.”
In the past, thicker, multi-year ice was dominant, including old ice greater than nine years of age. Today that oldest ice is almost gone."
Open water."
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/i...-blue-arctic/?platform=hootsuite#.Vts63_krLre
"Larsen told me that he has observed “big changes” in the Arctic during his nearly 25 years at sea. In addition to shrinking in extent, “most of the ice we encounter now is young — just one year old.”
In the past, thicker, multi-year ice was dominant, including old ice greater than nine years of age. Today that oldest ice is almost gone."
BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
15% extent bumped up but came down a bit and now is flat.
This is a terrible year for ice extent so far.
This is a terrible year for ice extent so far.
A 23 second video of Arctic ice loss in the just the last 26 years. The loss of multi-year ice is staggering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo1Boie7mtI
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo1Boie7mtI
.
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aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Let's keep it balanced and focus in what makes a summer minimum.
By February 29th the ice volume was 1,800 km3 below last year's, same date. But just 100 to 350 km3 below the ice volume during 2012, 2013 and 2014. The average thickness is slightly more now, or very similar.
BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
I think the amount of open water is significant as it changes the albedo at a time when the sun is returning.
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
That's only regionally relevant during June and July, or locally in lower latitudes, like Hudson Bay.
People should get some conclusion from the fact that both pole's sea ice maximums and minimums happen during September and March -and a bit earlier in Antarctica-.