I posted the below on the 24th of August. Let's revisit it in the light of the first debate, shall we?
Personal opinion (Ben can speak for himself here too, especially if what he means isn't what I mean) is that simply put, the states which Obama has already locked up count for so many votes that Romney will have to pull a miracle in the tossup states in order to win.
[Figures from 538 today]
The following states are currently listed at 75% or better for Obama to win:
California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine (all districts), Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.
Total locked-up electoral votes: 243 (270 to win).
To this we can now add New Hampshire (80%) and Wisconsin (81%), making a total of
259 electoral votes which Obama has locked up.
The following states are currently at 75% or better for Romney to win:
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska (all districts), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Total locked-up electoral votes: 191
To this we can add North Carolina (80%), for a new total of
206.
In November, this means Obama needs to get 27 votes from any combination of the remaining "tossup" states (which total 104 electoral votes) and the election is done. Romney, on the other hand, needs to make up 79. Right there, that's a pretty big structural advantage simply because the vast majority of the major EV states are already out of play for Romney -- the biggest remaining is Florida which is a dead heat: 53.2% for Romney that he _absolutely must win_ at all costs. If you live in Florida, expect to see nothing but shrillness on your TV for "commercials" for the next 2.5 months.
The numbers here, of course, have changed. Obama now needs only 11 votes' worth of swing states to reach 270, while Romney is still looking for 64 vote himself. But the state (ha!) of affairs changes significantly now.
Ohio (72% Obama), Virginia (58% Obama), or Florida (54% Romney) end the 'game' immediately. Colorado (53% Obama) plus Iowa (66% Obama) would also do so.
These are the only five "swing" states left with any plausible volatility in polling, and to say that Romney faces an uphill challenge now would be an understatement. He must split his resources between at a minimum three states (Ohio/Virginia/Florida), none of which he can afford to lose, and cannot ignore a Colorado/Iowa split. Obama can pick a single state (right now it appears to be Ohio, judging from the ads during the Reds/Giants game) and focus his efforts more effectively; if Romney ever _did_ have a fund-raising edge, it's long since been neutralized by his failure to hold even where it mattered.
Ohio (18 votes) currently predicted at 69.5% for Obama
Wisconsin (10) at 70.4% for Obama
Virginia (13) at 63.3% for Obama
Iowa (6) at 63.5% for Obama
New Hampshire (4) at 74.2% for Obama
Since I wrote the above, Ohio and Iowa have trended towards Obama, and Wisconsin and New Hampshire are effectively out of play. Virginia has drifted slightly but, of course, the President doesn't need to win there to be re-elected.
My prediction? I'll give Obama Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Virginia on top of the "locks" above, and Romney should take all the rest. That makes it:
Obama: 288
Romney: 250
Two states from my prediction are already in the 'good' column. Let's see how the other two do, shall we? Oh, and Obama voters can come in off the frickin' ledge. Yeesh, y'all look silly out there.
