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2011 Arctic Sea Ice Thread

Interesting. It looks now extremely unlikely -if not impossible- to break the previous minimum extent record (2007). In fact, the area with ice concentration higher than 30% has increased during the last couple of days, according to DMI, and the apparent average sea ice thickness got by dividing ice volume -provided by PIOMAS- by ice extent -no matter what set-, it has sort of stagnated. High pressures and colder conditions in the Arctic are expected for the next 15 days, so the season looks nearly over.

Anyway, ice volume for last day of July has dropped from 7,026 Km3 in 2010 to 6,494 km3 this year -as informed by PIOMAS- and multi-year ice will be from now on a stabilizing factor almost gone, so expect even stranger doodles in the ice extent graphs in years to come, as we're slowly entering new territories.

By the way, all the extents for August 2nd are convergent (6.5 to 6.7 million sq. km.). Don't be surprised if during next weeks the thin and scattered sea ice of previous weeks leads to ice extents larger than expected. Anyway, I still keep my forecast of 4.55 million sq. km. though I'm tempted to correct it to a higher value.

We are not in the record breaking part of this story. We are in the roller-coaster part, and we'll miss how just hysteresis could provide single explanations to what used to happen in the past. The canary is not dying in the cage; it's transforming in some strange squeaking creature.
 
I imagine the breaking up of older thicker ice into softer ice would actually result in a greater extent than it would normally by most measures, would it not? If it's anything like the baltic and the lakes around here, the slushy stuff really gets around.
 
aleCcowaN said:
Interesting. It looks now extremely unlikely -if not impossible- to break the previous minimum extent record (2007). In fact, the area with ice concentration higher than 30% has increased during the last couple of days, according to DMI, and the apparent average sea ice thickness got by dividing ice volume -provided by PIOMAS- by ice extent -no matter what set-, it has sort of stagnated. High pressures and colder conditions in the Arctic are expected for the next 15 days, so the season looks nearly over.

Anyway, ice volume for last day of July has dropped from 7,026 Km3 in 2010 to 6,494 km3 this year -as informed by PIOMAS- and multi-year ice will be from now on a stabilizing factor almost gone, so expect even stranger doodles in the ice extent graphs in years to come, as we're slowly entering new territories.

By the way, all the extents for August 2nd are convergent (6.5 to 6.7 million sq. km.). Don't be surprised if during next weeks the thin and scattered sea ice of previous weeks leads to ice extents larger than expected. Anyway, I still keep my forecast of 4.55 million sq. km. though I'm tempted to correct it to a higher value.

We are not in the record breaking part of this story. We are in the roller-coaster part, and we'll miss how just hysteresis could provide single explanations to what used to happen in the past. The canary is not dying in the cage; it's transforming in some strange squeaking creature.
Click to expand...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218
(not sure how to properly post this link to youtube vid of Monty Python Parrot sketch)
apologies for the sidetrack, but the segue was too good to pass up!
 
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aleCcowaN said:
Do you imply that sea ice extent will be resting? Some mateys would certainly agree :D
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Not sure that I would characterize "slush" as "sea ice," more like ex-"sea ice," bleeding demised, joined the choir invisible,...well, not quite pushing up daisies yet, but definitely in need of hospice.
 
BenBurch said:
Thing is, slush can spread out really far with not much wind. And I think that is what we are seeing.
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I recall last year (?) an alaskan (?) arctic scientist talking about his shock when up in amongst the ice to find the ship travelling at near top speed through what the satellites reported as ice cap but turned out to be little more than slushed up old ice.
 
The most recent global climate report fails to capture the reality of the changing Arctic seascape, according to MIT researchers.
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/arctic-ice-melt-0810.html

Established in 1988 by the United Nations, the IPCC issues reports that represent an average of many findings, and is sometimes criticized for forecasting according to the “lowest common denominator” of climate research. Still, many policymakers put large stock in its predictions, so Rampal says it is important to continuously evaluate and improve their accuracy.
After comparing IPCC models with actual data, Rampal and his collaborators concluded that the forecasts were significantly off: Arctic sea ice is thinning, on average, four times faster than the models say, and it’s drifting twice as quickly.
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So much for IPCC AR4 "alarmism".
 
I noted this from model studies a few years ago, but more evidence the pattern to Arctic sea ice melting is likely to be periods of rapid decline interspersed with periods of relative stability of a decade or more.

On the bright side this means ice free summers probably won't come as soon as current trends seem to indicate. Unfortunately we are also like to hear chorus of "sea ice has stabilized, global warming is over!!!" from the usual suspects even though these relatively stable periods are exactly what the models predict.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811113956.htm
 
lomiller said:
I noted this from model studies a few years ago, but more evidence the pattern to Arctic sea ice melting is likely to be periods of rapid decline interspersed with periods of relative stability of a decade or more.

On the bright side this means ice free summers probably won't come as soon as current trends seem to indicate. Unfortunately we are also like to hear chorus of "sea ice has stabilized, global warming is over!!!" from the usual suspects even though these relatively stable periods are exactly what the models predict.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811113956.htm
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"How do your models explain this? Eh? Eh?"

An ice-free Arctic will be highly symbolic when it happens. Such an event will surely get a lot of coverage (so to speak).
 
New NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News; http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/081611.html

After a period of slow melt from late July through early August, Arctic ice extent is again declining at a brisk pace, but remains higher than for 2007, the record low year. Data also indicate continued thinning of the ice. With about a month left in the sea ice melt season, the amount of further ice loss will depend mostly on weather patterns.

<SNIP>

Data indicate that the Arctic ice cover continues to thin. Sea ice thickness is also an indicator of the health of the ice cover; thick ice is resistant to melt. Specialized buoys managed by the U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory help supplement limited satellite measurements of sea ice thickness. The buoys provide accurate data at specific locations, and can tell us whether thickness changes are due to surface melt, melt at the bottom of the ice floe, or ice growth. These buoys are deployed on thick multiyear ice, which provide long-lasting, stable platforms.

Data from six of these buoys through July 20 show that this year, the ice surface is melting faster than the underside of the ice. As the sun starts to sink on the horizon, surface melt will slow. However, ocean waters warmed during the summer will continue to melt the ice from below, reducing ice thickness and extent into September.

<SNIP>
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Holly patience. :rolleyes:

The melting season is nearly over. It's only left to know if the minimum extent is going to be above or below 2010's value, not 2007's. Sea ice volume will be probably a new record low. Ice integrity and concentration is now recovering above 80°N. We are 30 days away of nights being longer that daylight in all the Northern Hemisphere. Outgoing longwave radiation is dropping fast in all the Arctic, but temperatures don't fall accordingly, meaning ice melting is quickly slowing down and close to a halt, or recovering in high latitudes and residually melting in lower latitudes close to open waters.

This has been a pretty normal season -if "on the trend" is normal-. One of the last ones, I'm afraid.
 
aleCcowaN said:
Holly patience. :rolleyes:

The melting season is nearly over. It's only left to know if the minimum extent is going to be above or below 2010's value, not 2007's.
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I don't know; what about 2008's level? It is under threat.

As icerat has pointed out, neven's blog makes interesting reading.
 
Mr Clingford said:
I don't know; what about 2008's level? It is under threat.

As icerat has pointed out, neven's blog makes interesting reading.
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There's no much to compare with 2008 other than the raw plots. From today's date to the yearly minimum we have 2006 and 2010 as years with slow and fast area change. I think this part of the year resembles 2006 better, but even copying 2010's trend there's no record breaking.

I didn't read that blog -and lots of blogs- but I see no special oceanic condition to get a "flash melt" now. If someone thinks that September 1st can come with weather conditions capable to promote ice melting from above, he needs a primer on climatology.

According to MASIE (NSIDC) now sea ice is still shrinking in Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, East Siberian Sea and Greenland Sea, it has nearly disappeared from Barents Bay and Barents Sea -so shrinking in no longer expected from there- and it's nearly stabilized or beginning to grow in Laptev Sea, Kara Sea, the Canadian Archipelago and most importantly, the Central Arctic, which accounts now for 60% of the remaining ice area.
 
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