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2011 Arctic Sea Ice Thread

IJIS prelim today is 5115313 km2, a drop of over 150000 in the last 2 days.

There appears to be a lot of sea surface with a temp warm enough to melt the thin ice (cue Pink Floyd).
 
Happy birthday, Ben, and don't worry, sea ice extent it's not going to shrink almost one million square kilometres from yesterday's value and beat 2007's record (between 4.14 and 4.31). I still stand in my previous forecast of 4.55 millions -to be compared with the value that NSIDC will inform opportunely-, still a bit lower than 2008's minimum (4.63, same source) and second lowest so far. I'm saying that though this morning's extent (>30% coverage) was in fact higher than the 2008's value for the same date.

I consider not very probable this year's minimum to be the third lowest, and unlikely to be the fourth one, but certainly it's nearly impossible now that it becomes the new record lowest.

Of course, sea ice volume and multi-year ice extent/volume are surely already in their record lows, but the outgoing longwave radiation -OLR- is falling quickly in all the region though it's still massive the amount of heat flowing to the Arctic (a few days ago, OLR for North Pole and Buenos Aires were about the same value)
 
It’s also worth remembering that in 2007 the anomaly didn’t reach its peak until October when sea ice was still near its minimum at a time when it’s normally well into its winter freeze. Even with sea ice near record lows we won’t necessarily come anywhere near the record anomaly we hit in 2007.
 
Just to give an idea of arctic conditions, svalbard is still reporting temperatures several degrees above average for this time of year, not predicted to get even sub-zero lows for another week, and that only forecast to last a week.

A balmy 25 degrees predicted here in the north of Stockholm today, only 1 degree off the historical maximum for the date.

ETA: Svalbard max temperature for saturday is predicted to be 8 degrees. Was 6 degrees for same date in 2007.
 
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Just to give an idea of arctic conditions, svalbard is still reporting temperatures several degrees above average for this time of year, not predicted to get even sub-zero lows for another week, and that only forecast to last a week.

That forecast has changed now, not going subzero at all in the 7 day forecast.
 
If the Arctic has, what, 21 or 22 million square kilometres, its emerging lands are, what, 4 million square kilometres, and sea ice extent is currently about 5 million square kilometres, it's pretty safe to say that there are now some 10 to 15 million square kilometres (between a Canada and a Russia) that are comfortably installed in average temperatures above 0°C.

icerat, what is the purpose of all of that cherry picking?

The fact that the optimistic (or pessimistic?) IJIS is showing today the second increase of sea ice area (not extent) in the last fortnight is a clear sign of a melting season coming quickly to a halt. [Link - the image changes daily]
 
The picking was because I happen to live in scandinavia. No "cherry picking" for results was done since I didn't even look for other areas, just picked what I know.

The point is that Svalbard conditions are very similar to 2007, even warmer.

All the trend lines continue down, the "increases" are within error margin are they not?

Neven has the graphs up from IJIS, Cryosphere, and Norsex. None of them look like they've bottomed out yet.

For what it's worth, Baffin Island and Barroware also several degrees warmer than average, very similar to 2007. None of them are predicted to go sub zero in the next week.

There's still a lot of warm air (and water) up there.
 
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The picking was because I happen to live in scandinavia. No "cherry picking" for results was done since I didn't even look for other areas, just picked what I know.

For what it's worth, Baffin Island and Barroware also several degrees warmer than average, very similar to 2007. None of them are predicted to go sub zero in the next week.

Are you aware that this is written and not oral? It was not a harbinger of melting because you picked it, it is so because you happen to live there :D followed by Red Riding Hood's basket, full of cherries :D:D:D:D


Neven has the graphs up from IJIS, Cryosphere, and Norsex. None of them look like they've bottomed out yet.

Oh, wow! Variations in the red plot are meaningless just because the plot of other curves in other colours makes room for this to fulfil what you expect. Besides, "near to a halt" contradicted by "they've (not) bottomed out yet"? I don't think so.


All the trend lines continue down, the "increases" are within error margin are they not?

No, you're just speculating by repeating dialectical techniques you heard over there. If you are sure, cite here three different sources -not blogs, nor people, nor bare words- giving a sea ice extent, area and/or volume to the last dates, their figures for error margins and the method they were calculated ... or just continue to repeat what you hear over there -but don't try to make it pass as true-. You are just badly used to speak of error margins just for what is barely possible to become probable on your demand, just as about 95% of people does here and in other nightmarish sites like Watt's.

There's still a lot of warm air (and water) up there.

Define "warm" and define "up". You are joking, aren't you? It looks from your other post that you think that waters at 3°C at -300m are going to go up and displace waters at -2°C in the surface, just because they are there and they are "warmer", and that happening during the very MELTING process.

Put your ideas in order and mind your Ps and Qs, please. Your ideas about how does this works are as precise as this representation of "the pampas" :eek: :

 
Are you aware that this is written and not oral? It was not a harbinger of melting because you picked it, it is so because you happen to live there :D followed by Red Riding Hood's basket, full of cherries :D:D:D:D

I think you may need to go read up on one "cherry picking" means. Clearly you have a different definition.

Oh, wow! Variations in the red plot are meaningless just because the plot of other curves in other colours makes room for this to fulfil what you expect. Besides, "near to a halt" contradicted by "they've (not) bottomed out yet"? I don't think so.

Ok, so trend lines from multiple independent data sources are meaningless, but picking two individual data points, from one source, to predict "near to a halt" is just fine. Uhuh. :cool:

No, you're just speculating by repeating dialectical techniques you heard over there.

Umm, no. Only read one and half posts from that site, and don't recall any talking about margin of error.

If you are sure, cite here three different sources -not blogs, nor people, nor bare words- giving a sea ice extent, area and/or volume to the last dates, their figures for error margins and the method they were calculated

To be honest I just guessed they were probably within the margin of error. I posed the question to you, since you were the one using them to make a claim.

You are just badly used to speak of error margins just for what is barely possible to become probable on your demand, just as about 95% of people does here and in other nightmarish sites like Watt's.

Clearly living in scandinavia has damaged my english comprehension, since I don't understand what the heck you mean here.

Define "warm" and define "up".

"up" is north of me on a map. It's a pretty standard usage, cartographically speaking.

In this context I'd define "warm" as warmer than normal, and warm enough to make a difference.

You are joking, aren't you? It looks from your other post that you think that waters at 3°C at -300m are going to go up and displace waters at -2°C in the surface, just because they are there and they are "warmer", and that happening during the very MELTING process.

From my other post? I haven't even mentioned water temperature. You do realise though that if it's 3 degrees at 300m it's probably not got going to be -2 in the top 100-150m, which is what you need to start getting sea ice again, even if it's -2 at the surface.

ETA: Check out polar water temperatures. Not many plotted, but certainly not conducive to ice formation where they are.

Put your ideas in order and mind your Ps and Qs, please. Your ideas about how does this works are as precise as this representation of "the pampas" :eek: :

I'm not swedish btw, but it was entertaining nevertheless.
 
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Going part by part (like Jack the Ripper said)

I think you may need to go read up on one "cherry picking" means. Clearly you have a different definition.
No, I read what you linked, and it is the same definition. You may think that you have to get information and discard it to "cherry pick". It could be unspecified confirmation bias with the Svalbard case, but you didn't left any doubt when you said "Just to give an idea of arctic[sic] conditions... svalbard[sic]" (#230) so you were playing with the ambiguity of the term "idea"; it was an isolated example because you live a thousand miles from there and are affectively attached to the place, but it wasn't meant to represent the whole Arctic, not even a part. So what is "an idea of Arctic conditions"?

About your cherry- pickings, lets see then now in detail:
For what it's worth, Baffin Island and Barroware also several degrees warmer than average, very similar to 2007. None of them are predicted to go sub zero in the next week.
Your link for what you name Baffin Island says for Friday August 26th 2011:
max 6°C ( 1° below the average to date, 3° below the max for the same date of 2007), min 4°C (equal to the average low to date, 4° below the low for the same date of 2007).

Your link to what you name Barrow says for Friday August 26th 2011:
max 14°C ( 8° above the average to date, 7° above the max for the same date of 2007), min 3°C (2° above to the average low to date, equal to the low for the same date of 2007).

So, your "are also several degrees warmer than average, very similar to 2007" is just a lie. In fact, "several degrees warmer" and "very similar" look about the same difference, and warmer or cooler, it all depends on the place. So, again, it was just a plain lie.

Ok, so trend lines from multiple independent data sources are meaningless, but picking two individual data points, from one source, to predict "near to a halt" is just fine. Uhuh. :cool:
I bet you have no idea what the graphic plots. Your independent sources, the first one is dependent -cryosphere today- and the other two plot the same two increases in sea ice area I've already talk, but in the case of the graphic of NORSEX, the graphic looks doctored in the region of interest -look here to the big image in the same site, I can't copy or hot-link it here because it is too large, and I'm not going to clip that part because it could look like it was me who doctored it-.

I hope you at least will understand that the amount of ice today -area, extent or volume- is heavily dependent of the amount of ice yesterday and not dependent on the values to date for other years, Won't you? So you better behave and acknowledge that:

1) The Arctic is a very big area and much of it can be freezing while other parts are still warming. (Indeed, that is what happens with the banquise now)
2) Near to a halt means that: near to a halt, not halted neither reversing, so abandon your obvious efforts to strawmanize me.
3) You can't dismiss that during the last fortnight at least 4 days -maybe 5 or 6- were of sea ice growing. Don't try to attribute that to error margins unless you can point where you previously doubted of the diminishing values owing to error margins or point to the calculations of those margins itself, otherwise it is a malafide argument you resort now just to "win" a debate no matter how.

You are simply seeing what you want to see, no matter you have to say the contrary of what your own cherry-picked sources say. You also do as if you don't understand what cherry-picking or other biases are.

There's a lot more to what you've said, but I'll get to it later, because you are very costly -it is easier destructing than constructing and it takes me 30 lines to counteract three lines of your wishful thinking- as this exceeds my daily dose of English practise.
 
Yes, the pack is just some dozen yards from the winning post and some are squeezing their tickets and shouting in the hope that tragic nag they betted on will come first in spite of it coming last by far.

There's no worst than someone who "believes" in AGW and twist everything to fit within his belief. Such nasty behaviour is typical from the so-called "deniers" and must be reserved exclusively to them. When a person stopped thinking and started to believe he is lost to any valuable purpose, even if he believes in a purpose that I consider valuable.

It is regrettable such spirit of expecting the sudden melting of all the Arctic or a hurricane to kill ten thousand WASP people just to say "you see, you see, I was right, this and that exist" and prove the opponents wrong or agitate a reluctant public opinion.

Some year really soon the record of 2007 will be broken, an it will be by a lot, just like 2007's record itself was. This is definitively not the year and that was highly probable since the beginning of last northern winter, and it has become more and more certain as the weeks passed.
 
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