1,2,3,4,5,6 in the lottery

[Skeptic Ginger]

This was interesting:

In a famous occurrence, a Polish-Irish businessman named Stefan Klincewicz bought up almost all of the 1,947,792 combinations available at the Irish lottery. He and his associates paid less than one million Irish pounds while the jackpot stood at 1.7 million pounds. The syndicate did have a ticket with the winning numbers. However, so did two other players, and the jackpot was split three ways. With the "Match 4" and "Match 5" prizes, though, Klincewicz's syndicate made a small profit overall.

 

[Dan O.]

There have been a number of lottery syndicate stories including in the US. Any lottery system that has a progressive pot will eventually reach the point where the estimated payout exceeds the cost of the ticket. A syndicate has a double advantage in that not only can they cover the entire board without duplication, they also get a hugh tax advantage that allows them to deduct the cost of all the tickets. For most individual players, they won't have enough winnings to cover their losses and the winners will only have a small cost of the ticket that can be deducted.

 

[NoahFence]

I once bought 5 10 dollar scratch tickets after winning $100 on a 2 dollar.

One of the biggest myths was that the beginning and ending of the book was a no-go. You've probably seen people ask for the ticket #s for this reason. When they gave me the tickets, I noticed that they were #'s 001-005. I brought them home anyway, resigned to my fate.

Got $100, $50, $50, $40, $500

I am not kidding. Needless to say I no longer believe in lottery myths.

 

[Pixel42]

I would imagine your best chance of not having to share the payout if you do win is to pick whatever numbers came up the previous week. They have exactly the same chance of coming up this week as any other combination, but you'll likely to be the only person playing them.

 

[Ladewig]

I would imagine your best chance of not having to share the payout if you do win is to pick whatever numbers came up the previous week. They have exactly the same chance of coming up this week as any other combination, but you'll likely to be the only person playing them.

Ah but what if someone else has the same idea. Obviously you should use the numbers not from the previous draw, but the draw before the previous draw. Oh wait, someone else might have that idea - use the numbers from the draw before that one, that's the way to ensure no one requests your combination of numbers.

 

[Ladewig]

Obviously, the odds of drawing any specific set of numbers is identical to drawing any other specific set of numbers and I think people understand this.

Do you have any evidence to support this assertion?

I am not talking about the odds, I am talking about your claim that the general population understands the point you were making. Here in the U.S., there is a great deal of mathematical illiteracy. Actually, the fact that these types of lotteries exist at all is prima facie evidence of such innumeracy.

 

[alexi_drago]

I would imagine your best chance of not having to share the payout if you do win is to pick whatever numbers came up the previous week. They have exactly the same chance of coming up this week as any other combination, but you'll likely to be the only person playing them.

You think you're the only person to have thought of this?

In the uk lottery, nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 number from the previous draw.

But if you'd played that from the start, out of 1680 draws you'd have matched

3 balls 28 times
4 balls 1 time

 

[epepke]

The chance of winning is exactly the same. The chance of winning anything is significantly lower. Lotteries report that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are the most commonly picked numbers. So if you win, you can expect to split the prize with hundreds of people.

 

[jhunter1163]

This reminds me of our family story:

In the group of 14 people made up of my parents and their five children and my uncle's seven children, three share May 23 as a birthday, two share November 19 (including myself) and two share March 2. Now, I know that it only takes 23 people to get to a 50% probability of a match, but the odds of all these matches occurring in such a small group has to be pretty high* (I think it has been calculated at something like 1 in 750,000.)

* And yes, I know that since it's happened, the odds are 1, so we can dispense with that right now.

 

[alexi_drago]

This reminds me of our family story:

In the group of 14 people made up of my parents and their five children and my uncle's seven children, three share May 23 as a birthday, two share November 19 (including myself) and two share March 2. Now, I know that it only takes 23 people to get to a 50% probability of a match, but the odds of all these matches occurring in such a small group has to be pretty high* (I think it has been calculated at something like 1 in 750,000.)

* And yes, I know that since it's happened, the odds are 1, so we can dispense with that right now.

Hmm, valentines day and something else the people in your family celebrate around july/august?

 

[Comrade Raptor]

I once bought 5 10 dollar scratch tickets after winning $100 on a 2 dollar.

One of the biggest myths was that the beginning and ending of the book was a no-go. You've probably seen people ask for the ticket #s for this reason. When they gave me the tickets, I noticed that they were #'s 001-005. I brought them home anyway, resigned to my fate.

Got $100, $50, $50, $40, $500

I am not kidding. Needless to say I no longer believe in lottery myths.

I can beat that.

One time I was coming home from work with a work-buddy and we stopped into the all-night gas station. I saw that there were 3 pull-tab tickets left from the special Christmas batch. Never bought them before. So I said, give me those and if I win $100 on each we'll split it 3 ways.

And I did.

So I followed through.

Think my work-buddy had more fun sharing that story than I did.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
Obviously, the odds of drawing any specific set of numbers is identical to drawing any other specific set of numbers and I think people understand this. At the same time, I think people understand that the odds are much lower of drawing a "specific set" than a "random set". (This relates to the birthday paradox). .....

The Birthday Paradox

The birthday problem asks whether any of the people in a given group has a birthday matching any of the others — not one in particular. (See "Same birthday as you" below for an analysis of this much less surprising alternative problem.)
In the example given earlier, a list of 23 people, comparing the birthday of the first person on the list to the others allows 22 chances for a matching birthday (The second person on the list to the others allows 21 chances for a matching birthday, third person has 20 chances, and so on. Hence 22+21+20+....+1 = 253), but comparing every person to all of the others allows 253 distinct chances (combinations): in a group of 23 people there are pairs.
Presuming all birthdays are equally probable,[2][3][4] the probability of a given birthday for a person chosen from the entire population at random is 1/365 (ignoring Leap Day, February 29). Although the pairings in a group of 23 people are not statistically equivalent to 253 pairs chosen independently, the birthday paradox becomes less surprising if a group is thought of in terms of the number of possible pairs, rather than as the number of individuals.

So are you saying people wrongly understand that the odds are much lower of drawing a "specific set" than a "random set" or are you saying you believe the odds are lower and it is common knowledge?

I'm confused.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I can beat that.

One time I was coming home from work with a work-buddy and we stopped into the all-night gas station. I saw that there were 3 pull-tab tickets left from the special Christmas batch. Never bought them before. So I said, give me those and if I win $100 on each we'll split it 3 ways.

And I did.

So I followed through.

Think my work-buddy had more fun sharing that story than I did.

I can beat that story with my true anecdote. I was hitching across Canada with a friend and we were just out of Banff unable to get a ride because there were so many other people in the same spot. So we went hiking off down the road instead. A few miles later my shoe fell apart. It was totally unusable and there was nothing I could do but hike barefoot which was going to be seriously difficult. But literally right there on the side of the road was a pair of Puma tennis shoes that fit perfectly. They were so comfortable they became my favorite shoes until they wore out.

What are the odds?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I can beat that.

One time I was coming home from work with a work-buddy and we stopped into the all-night gas station. I saw that there were 3 pull-tab tickets left from the special Christmas batch. Never bought them before. So I said, give me those and if I win $100 on each we'll split it 3 ways.

And I did.

So I followed through.

Think my work-buddy had more fun sharing that story than I did.

OK, I'm skeptical here. I do believe you but I have a question. Those pull tabs have [x] number of guaranteed wins and they usually cross off the numbers as they are won. With 3 winning tabs left wouldn't anyone have been able to see there were 3 $100s left and only 3 tabs? I must be having a false memory about seeing x'ed out numbers on pull tab cases.

 

[epepke]

You think you're the only person to have thought of this?

In the uk lottery, nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 number from the previous draw.

There's a fun hack based on this. It works in Florida, at least. Wait until the winning numbers are announced and go gt a ticket with the same numbers before midnight. Show it to someone who is really into the lottery, and they go into fits of apoplexy until they note the time (which they never do, but you can tell them and laugh at them).

People just aren't thinking here.

 

[alexi_drago]

I know that any combination is as likely as any other combination so the numbers from the previous draw have the same odds as any other combination but is it a different question to ask what are the odds of the same six numbers showing up in two consecutive draws?

 

[Matty1973]

This reminds me of our family story:

In the group of 14 people made up of my parents and their five children and my uncle's seven children, three share May 23 as a birthday, two share November 19 (including myself) and two share March 2. Now, I know that it only takes 23 people to get to a 50% probability of a match, but the odds of all these matches occurring in such a small group has to be pretty high* (I think it has been calculated at something like 1 in 750,000.)

Based on the distribution of birthdays in your family would I be correct in saying you are 48 years old?

All the best

Psychic Matt

 

[Brian-M]

In the uk lottery, nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 number from the previous draw.

Assuming you count the two supplementary numbers, that's 8 numbers per draw.

I'm guessing that if nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from the previous draw, then nearly 58% of the draws would have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from any given set of 8 possible numbers.

 

[jhunter1163]

Based on the distribution of birthdays in your family would I be correct in saying you are 48 years old?

All the best

Psychic Matt

You would be. I'd be duly amazed if I didn't have the month and year of my birth in my username.

ETA: And if I didn't have my date of birth in my public profile. It isn't exactly a secret.

 

[alexi_drago]

Assuming you count the two supplementary numbers, that's 8 numbers per draw.

I'm guessing that if nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from the previous draw, then nearly 58% of the draws would have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from any given set of 8 possible numbers.

It's just counting the 6 main numbers, there's only 1 bonus number but I was ignoring that.