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1,2,3,4,5,6 in the lottery

Skeptic Ginger said:
There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.
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I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago...

Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.

But I never play this system. The greatly improved odds on the rare occasions all six numbers fall within your chosen twelve are offset by the greatly reduced odds (compared to 8 random games) when they don't, so there's no real advantage.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing.
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Is a number wheel the same thing as what we call "systems" lotto?

In systems lotto you select more than 6 numbers which is equivalent to playing more lotto tickets.
A system 7 is equivalent to 7 tickets (7C6 = 7)
A system 8 is equivalent to 28 tickets (8C6 = 28)
etc.

You can also play a system 5 where one of the drawn numbers is a given or a system 4 where 2 of the drawn numbers are a given etc.
 
psionl0 said:
Is a number wheel the same thing as what we call "systems" lotto?

In systems lotto you select more than 6 numbers which is equivalent to playing more lotto tickets.
A system 7 is equivalent to 7 tickets (7C6 = 7)
A system 8 is equivalent to 28 tickets (8C6 = 28)
etc.

You can also play a system 5 where one of the drawn numbers is a given or a system 4 where 2 of the drawn numbers are a given etc.
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not entirely, your system 7 and 8 there guarantee the jackpot if the 6 numbers appear within the 7 or 8, most wheels are designed to give the lower prizes, like guaranteeing 3 or 4 numbers in one line if the 6 drawn numbers are from something like a pool of 18 numbers, and yes, they can also have key numbers included.

Here's one way of making money off wheeling:

http://www.lotterywheels.com/wheel_list.htm#6
 
Undesired Walrus said:
For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21.

People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself?
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I think I might have a theory on why people find this so hard to believe.


Obviously, the odds of drawing any specific set of numbers is identical to drawing any other specific set of numbers and I think people understand this. At the same time, I think people understand that the odds are much lower of drawing a "specific set" than a "random set". (This relates to the birthday paradox). Indeed with a game like Lotto the odds of drawing "any random set" are 1, whereas the odds of drawing a specific set are very very small.

I think where people come undone is that they think of a set with a clear pattern as "specific" but if they randomly select numbers, they think of it in terms of "any random set". Thus think their set has greater chance than a specific set with a recognised pattern. Of course, the moment you have a set, whether selected from a pattern or selected at random, it becomes a specific set, and therefore has equal odds of being drawn. I think a lot of people can't get this distinction through their head (indeed, it's the reason behind the birthday paradox).

It's kind of like people who refer to the statistical probability of an event that already happened and use it to argue that the event didn't happen (i.e. something else happened). This is quite popular with conspiracy theorists.
 
4 years ago this combination came out at loto-québec's 649.

23, 40, 41, 42, 44, 45

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5715/loto.jpg

Normaly the prize in the 5/6+ category is shared by 2-3 persons. That week 239 persons had to share the 5/6+ prize. :eek:

That proves, I guess, that a lot of people choose consecutive numbers and that this method is worse that choosing random numbers.
 
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gumboot said:
I think where people come undone is that they think of a set with a clear pattern as "specific" but if they randomly select numbers, they think of it in terms of "any random set".
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It's the same reasoning that people think that the odds of tossing 6 heads in a row is less than tossing 5 heads and 1 tail. This is true if it doesn't matter which toss is the tail.

However, tossing 5 heads followed by 1 tail is the same as tossing 5 heads followed by 1 head.
 
May be I'm missing something but G H I J K L only gives a maximum of 2 correct numbers - not 5 as claimed?


Brian-M said:
I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago...

Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.
Click to expand...
 
jasonpatterson said:
As has been mentioned repeatedly, yes, you're right, any given set of 6 numbers in a fair lottery is equally likely to occur.

What is true, however, is that any set of 6 numbers with a simple pattern is less likely to occur than one of the sets of 6 numbers with no obvious pattern. Obvious might not be the best adjective, but there are far more combinations of the (3, 8, 22, 24, 37, 45) variety (i.e. no obvious pattern) than there are of the (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) variety. There are an awful lot of obvious patterns, to be sure, but there are far more sets that have none.
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No.
 
jasonpatterson said:
If the game is fair, there's no way to increase your chances of winning aside from playing more times. Any given ticket is as likely as any other to win. I had to look up "lottery wheels," to be honest, but they just appear to be a mechanism for generating lots of lottery combinations.
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No.

You don't seem to understand probability.
 
Brian-M said:
I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago...

Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.

But I never play this system. The greatly improved odds on the rare occasions all six numbers fall within your chosen twelve are offset by the greatly reduced odds (compared to 8 random games) when they don't, so there's no real advantage.
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(Are you sure about your wheel? Because getting 5 numbers in 8 games of 12 numbers seems much better odds than I recall. We have a 6 number game and I believe one can play 7 numbers and guarantee 4 with 4 plays. But never mind that question, I'll take your word for it for this discussion that your wheel is correct.)

Anyway, let's think about this. In each of the 8 games you have an equal chance of winning be it 5 numbers or 6.

So that would suggest you have the same odds as a quick pick. But you are playing 12 numbers rather than 6 numbers. I do believe that gives one better odds.
 
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Brian-M said:
I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago...

Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.
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I don't think that can be right.

There are 792 combinations of 5 choices represented by the 12 numbers.

Each Game you pick covers only 6 combinations of 5 choices, giving you at most 48 choices for the eight games.

Unless I've missed something here, you can cover eight numbers with ten games, or seven numbers with four games. You can't cover twelve numbers with eight games.

EDIT: I realized my mistake. Of the 792 combinations, six of them will be represented in the lotto draw. So you only need to cover, optimally, 132 combinations, which means you can do it picking just 22 games.
Similarly, you can theoretically cover ten numbers with eight games. That factor of 6 really makes a difference.
 
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Matty1973 said:
May be I'm missing something but G H I J K L only gives a maximum of 2 correct numbers - not 5 as claimed?
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Sorry, I got a 9 number system mixed up with a 12 number system - the absence of J, K and L in the games should have tipped me off to the mistake. I should have written...

Pick 9 numbers: A B C D E F G H I

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the nine numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.
 
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