If anybody could pass the challenge, why would they?

[JollyRoger]

Im wondering, since nothing if free, in that everything has a price in some form or other. What price would you pay (material or otherwise) if you used these abilities on wall street to make Billions

 

[rjh01]

I agree with JollyRoger. If a person could predict the future they could make a fortune on the stock market. Imagine buying speculative stock just before they made a major announcement that sends their stock price up. Rinse then repeat.

 

[Ladewig]

I agree with JollyRoger. If a person could predict the future they could make a fortune on the stock market. Imagine buying speculative stock just before they made a major announcement that sends their stock price up. Rinse then repeat.

Be careful.
The IRS or SEC might have some questions for you if all your trades produce a 30% return or better and none of the stocks was held more than a week or two.

 

[r-j]

ouch

 

[xterra]

Ladwig's posting might be the answer to the question JollyRoger was asking:

Im wondering, since nothing if free, in that everything has a price in some form or other. What price would you pay (material or otherwise) if you used these abilities on wall street to make Billions

If one made too much money too quickly, there might be a presumption of illegal activity.

If as a defense, one demonstrated the paranormal ability, probably some other* organizations would be interested.


*Also known by their initials.

 

[Ladewig]

Ladwig's posting might be the answer to the question JollyRoger was asking:



If one made too much money too quickly, there might be a presumption of illegal activity.

If as a defense, one demonstrated the paranormal ability, probably some other* organizations would be interested.


*Also known by their initials.

I think with a bit of planning, suspicion could be avoided.
I would hate to have to convince one government agency that I was psychic while trying to convince another government agency that I wasn't psychic.

 

[JollyRoger]

Ladwig's posting might be the answer to the question JollyRoger was asking:

If one made too much money too quickly, there might be a presumption of illegal activity.

If as a defense, one demonstrated the paranormal ability, probably some other* organizations would be interested.

*Also known by their initials.

Since our traditionally called "woohoo super power" has not and I believe can not be proven scientifically for any number of reasons, demonstrating paranormal ability would seem highly unlikely if not impossible. In addition if you were charismatic enough to explain it away as, "I just did my homework, used logical deduction and a bit of luck" and the stock market worked out well for me, they might keep an eye on you but thier would be no illegal activity involved. However anything that gives you an unfair advantage over your opponent can be considered cheating.

 

[Diploid]

If I had a special "Gift", and could rake in big bucks, I think I would be more on the side of caution - I wouldn't let anybody know ... So for me, I wouldn't take the million dollar challenge, and try to live under the radar.

If these hypothetical magical powers existed and people were using them "under the radar" to make money by cheating casinos, for example, there would still be evidence that something is going on by way of the actual win rate at casinos exceeding the win rate predicted by probability theory.

Sure, no single individual could be identified, but the overall departure from probability theory would be very real, detectable, and the object of intense scientific study to determine what is happening.

The fact that casinos, lotteries, and countless other games of chance consistently perform exactly as predicted by probability theory is compelling evidence that these powers do not exist or that the people who have these powers don't care about making money or donating their winnings to a worthy charity.

 

[jsfisher]

If these hypothetical magical powers existed and people were using them "under the radar" to make money by cheating casinos, for example, there would still be evidence that something is going on by way of the actual win rate at casinos exceeding the win rate predicted by probability theory.

Sure, no single individual could be identified, but the overall departure from probability theory would be very real, detectable, and the object of intense scientific study to determine what is happening.

The fact that casinos, lotteries, and countless other games of chance consistently perform exactly as predicted by probability theory is compelling evidence that these powers do not exist or that the people who have these powers don't care about making money or donating their winnings to a worthy charity.

Why have you limited yourself to games of chance? Casinos and sports books offer other possibilities besides just games of chance. Parimutuel events, for example, would provide ample opportunity for income without much fear of detection.

 

[r-j]

However anything that gives you an unfair advantage over your opponent can be considered cheating.

So if I am smarter than my opponent, that is cheating?

 

[Diploid]

Casinos are just one example. Parimutuels also perform in accordance to expectations from probability theory. If someone were using magic to win horse races, horse race tracks would notice an aggregate departure from probability theory in their payouts, though there would be no way to identify the specific individual using magic to win.

But again, my point is that if magic existed and people were using it clandestinely to make money, then theory would be inconsistent with reality and this discrepancy would be the topic of intense scientific investigation to find out why. The fact that theory and reality jibe perfectly suggests that no one is using magic to skew the odds and win these games.

 

[bruto]

Casinos are just one example. Parimutuels also perform in accordance to expectations from probability theory. If someone were using magic to win horse races, horse race tracks would notice an aggregate departure from probability theory in their payouts, though there would be no way to identify the specific individual using magic to win.

But again, my point is that if magic existed and people were using it clandestinely to make money, then theory would be inconsistent with reality and this discrepancy would be the topic of intense scientific investigation to find out why. The fact that theory and reality jibe perfectly suggests that no one is using magic to skew the odds and win these games.

While I expect you're right and your idea works in the case of any kind of widespread magic, it remains theoretically possible that the occasional very prudent person could use it without skewing results enough to notice. I can conceive at least of a thoughtful person managing to husband a gambling advantage such that he won many small amounts in many places to great effect. Of course it would only work if the gift were very rare, and if all practitioners of it were very prudent. Highly unlikely.

 

[Pup]

If one had psychic powers, the solution would be to use them to influence things to go poorly for others, while influencing them to go well for yourself. Coin tosses would still land on heads 50% of the time in the long run, they'd just land more often on heads when you were betting. Statistically, that's just what we see--not a perfect 50-50 distribution, but some really lucky runs and some really unlucky ones.

If it was kept to a minimal level, no one would notice.

Some of these paranormal practitioners are really pushing the limit, though:

Arizona couple wins million dollar lottery twice in 20 years

Virginia Woman Wins $1 Million Lottery Twice in the Same Day

 

[jsfisher]

Casinos are just one example. Parimutuels also perform in accordance to expectations from probability theory. If someone were using magic to win horse races, horse race tracks would notice an aggregate departure from probability theory in their payouts, though there would be no way to identify the specific individual using magic to win.

Umm, no, they would not. The track doesn't care who wins and for a very simple reason. Their take is the same either way under a parimutuel scheme.

Their is a rather weak rule of thumb that the betting public is right about one third of the time selecting the eventual winner. What does probability theory say the expected outcome should be?

But again, my point is that if magic existed and people were using it clandestinely to make money, then theory would be inconsistent with reality and this discrepancy would be the topic of intense scientific investigation to find out why. The fact that theory and reality jibe perfectly suggests that no one is using magic to skew the odds and win these games.

You have fallen a bit short of making your case.

 

[deaman]

Magic and paranormal powers?

You wish.

 

[Scopedog]

Casinos are just one example. Parimutuels also perform in accordance to expectations from probability theory. If someone were using magic to win horse races, horse race tracks would notice an aggregate departure from probability theory in their payouts, though there would be no way to identify the specific individual using magic to win.

But again, my point is that if magic existed and people were using it clandestinely to make money, then theory would be inconsistent with reality and this discrepancy would be the topic of intense scientific investigation to find out why. The fact that theory and reality jibe perfectly suggests that no one is using magic to skew the odds and win these games.

Maybe psychics own the casinos and racetracks. The house always wins.

 

[Cuddles]

If someone were using magic to win horse races, horse race tracks would notice an aggregate departure from probability theory in their payouts

Maybe psychics own the casinos and racetracks. The house always wins.

A horse always wins.

More seriously, bruto has the most important point covered. If magic is extremely common, then yes, we would probably expect to notice its effects on probabilistic outcomes. But if instead it's quite rare, we shouldn't expect to notice anything of the sort. A casino can have income in the billions, and tens of thousands of gamblers every day. Someone with magic powers could make a very comfortable yearly income on the order of $100,000 and barely even be a rounding error. Alternatively, a single lottery win could have you set for life as long as you're not too greedy. If thousands of people win the national lottery every week, we'd certainly suspect something fishy were going on. But if one extra psychic person wins it every few decades, how could anyone possibly notice?

 

[rjh01]

Another way to earn money quietly big time would be via the stock market. If you knew that stock x was going to go up in price you could buy big and then after it goes up sell and make a huge profit. There are some people who make their living this way. Maybe psychic powers do exist and this is how they use them. No need to prove their abilities, except to themselves and they do that by getting rich.

 

[Pup]

Another way to earn money quietly big time would be via the stock market. If you knew that stock x was going to go up in price you could buy big and then after it goes up sell and make a huge profit. There are some people who make their living this way. Maybe psychic powers do exist and this is how they use them. No need to prove their abilities, except to themselves and they do that by getting rich.

If too many people were predicting the future with psychic powers, though, it still wouldn't work. As "everyone" tried to buy before the stock had its big upswing, that would make the price go up too early, and if too many people were trying to sell at its peak, that would push the price down too soon.

Like casinos noticing the law of averages wasn't working if too many people were using psychic powers to win, a psychic would notice that his predictive powers weren't working, unless he'd be able to predict the effect that other psychics would have on the market and react in advance of them, to buy before psychics pushed the price up trying to buy. But other psychics would be depending on predicting what he (and others) were going to do, and therefore he "couldn't" change his behavior if the ability predict the future was real.

Hmm... Sounds like a time traveler's paradox. I bet it's in a science fiction novel somewhere.

 

[rjh01]

If too many people were predicting the future with psychic powers, though, it still wouldn't work. As "everyone" tried to buy before the stock had its big upswing, that would make the price go up too early, and if too many people were trying to sell at its peak, that would push the price down too soon.

Like casinos noticing the law of averages wasn't working if too many people were using psychic powers to win, a psychic would notice that his predictive powers weren't working, unless he'd be able to predict the effect that other psychics would have on the market and react in advance of them, to buy before psychics pushed the price up trying to buy. But other psychics would be depending on predicting what he (and others) were going to do, and therefore he "couldn't" change his behavior if the ability predict the future was real.

Hmm... Sounds like a time traveler's paradox. I bet it's in a science fiction novel somewhere.

I do agree with what you are saying. Of course "too many people" is a lot of people. Maybe may people use this power. It would be a lot easier to detect someone using their powers in a casino. I think they would notice anyone who won big multiple times in a short time.

 

[bruto]

I do agree with what you are saying. Of course "too many people" is a lot of people. Maybe may people use this power. It would be a lot easier to detect someone using their powers in a casino. I think they would notice anyone who won big multiple times in a short time.

Most likely true, especially owing to human nature. But imagine that I had a way to win consistently at gambling, and simply went into a casino and won a variable amount in the hundreds in an hour in various games. Cash out, go to another across town and repeat. There are hundreds of casinos in Nevada alone. You could spread it around further by investing some in the stock market and using powers there, and maybe the occasional lottery. Skip the Powerball and win a few thousand here and there on scratch-offs. With a little patience one could become quite rich in a short time without likely setting off any alarms.

 

[TjW]

I dunno. This all seems to be ignoring that the postulated person who has magical powers and is quietly using them to enrich him/herself isn't who the challenge is aimed at.

 

[Dr. Keith]

I dunno. This all seems to be ignoring that the postulated person who has magical powers and is quietly using them to enrich him/herself isn't who the challenge is aimed at.

Exactly. My understanding is that the challenge is directed at those who are using their claim of powers to make a living quite publicly.

 

[roryboryalice]

Exactly. My understanding is that the challenge is directed at those who are using their claim of powers to make a living quite publicly.

I refer you to the very first sentence of the conditions of the challenge.
That's my understanding of it.
Or did I just get trolled

 

[wardenclyffe]

It's open to all, but it's clearly aimed at people who are happy to take money from others in exchange for their paranormal services, but then are too "shy" to do a simple demonstration that will pocket them a million bucks.

Ward

 

[roryboryalice]

In my opinion it's aimed at anyone who can pass it. It's just a great tool to expose those people mentioned.

 

[xtifr]

In my opinion it's aimed at anyone who can pass it.

Um, since that would be the null set, I don't think that's a reasonable statement. It's aimed at anyone who claims to have psychic powers.

And yes, that means anyone who claims not to have psychic powers is automatically disqualified. Even if they're lying. But since no one actually has psychic powers, that's not really an issue.

It's just a great tool to expose those people mentioned.

Which is, indeed, the point. Randi didn't start this because he's on some quest to find a person with real psychic powers. It is primarily intended to expose and shame the frauds. But to work, it has to be an honest offer, so it is.

 

[TjW]

Um, since that would be the null set, I don't think that's a reasonable statement. It's aimed at anyone who claims to have psychic powers.

And yes, that means anyone who claims not to have psychic powers is automatically disqualified. Even if they're lying. But since no one actually has psychic powers, that's not really an issue.



Which is, indeed, the point. Randi didn't start this because he's on some quest to find a person with real psychic powers. It is primarily intended to expose and shame the frauds. But to work, it has to be an honest offer, so it is.

I think the "honest offer" part is probably what throws a large number of those it is aimed at. The concept is foreign to them.
Thus the large number of threads here claiming that it must be a cheat, somehow.

 

[deaman]

All we can ever see, is exactly what we are.

 

[xtifr]

Anyway, bottom line, even if we pretend that there is a class of person who actually has psychic powers, but who keeps those powers hidden in order to use them for profit (and really, not one of these people is willing to further the cause of science, and gain the fame and wealth that would automatically accrue from an honest demonstration, which would go way way beyond the mere million dollars being offered here? Not a single one?)—even if we pretend that, it doesn't help those who do openly claim to have psychic powers, but refuse to take the challenge, or the gullible fools who follow and support them.

"Someone still might actually have psychic powers just be hiding them" doesn't help Geller or Edwards or Brown or the countless other scammers who aren't hiding their claims. So this whole discussion is somewhat pointless.

 

[roryboryalice]

Um, since that would be the null set, I don't think that's a reasonable statement. It's aimed at anyone who claims to have psychic powers.

This is pretty much the same thing. Even because of the slight difference - It doesn't change my point at all. So you're just a genius for pointing out the slight difference.

And yes, that means anyone who claims not to have psychic powers is automatically disqualified. Even if they're lying. But since no one actually has psychic powers, that's not really an issue.

Which is, indeed, the point. Randi didn't start this because he's on some quest to find a person with real psychic powers. It is primarily intended to expose and shame the frauds. But to work, it has to be an honest offer, so it is

.

I watch every single James Randi video there is, this is not true.
This is 100% why it was STARTED, yes.
But that's not the goal of the challenge anymore.
It was started to expose and shame the frauds.
Now they are looking for anybody with real powers.
Now it is just a great tool to expose frauds.
Don't confuse the 2

 

[r-j]

Unlike all the other internet discussions.

 

[roryboryalice]

I only meant to quote

It is primarily intended to expose and shame the frauds.

in my last post for the second part. My bad.

 

[Cuddles]

It was started to expose and shame the frauds.

Yes.

Now they are looking for anybody with real powers.

No.

 

[Diploid]

No.

Seems to me we should always keep an open mind, even for things that are almost-certainly false.

I don't buy into woo of any kind for one second and I never have, but as an intellectually honest person I have to take the epistemological default position that something that almost-certainly doesn't exist still tacitly might exist... however infinitesimally small the chances.

On the other hand, I hold this same position on the existence of god, Santa and the Tooth Fairy. I don't believe in any of them, but to hold an affirmative disbelief is no different than faith (affirmative belief).

But with that said, I don't generally admit this to believers because they will simply hear what they want to hear, omitting the nuances at the crux of my comment, and later accuse me of saying things I did not say.

 

[TjW]

Seems to me we should always keep an open mind, even for things that are almost-certainly false.

I don't buy into woo of any kind for one second and I never have, but as an intellectually honest person I have to take the epistemological default position that something that almost-certainly doesn't exist still tacitly might exist... however infinitesimally small the chances.

On the other hand, I hold this same position on the existence of god, Santa and the Tooth Fairy. I don't believe in any of them, but to hold an affirmative disbelief is no different than faith (affirmative belief).

But with that said, I don't generally admit this to believers because they will simply hear what they want to hear, omitting the nuances at the crux of my comment, and later accuse me of saying things I did not say.

Why would that be better than a default position that things without evidence for them don't exist?

 

[petrov2500]

About the casino thing, I found someone who claims that precognitive powers won't help you win at roulette or slot machines. http://das-sporking.livejournal.com/141379.html

Here are the relevant portions:

Do you know what’s really dumb about this? Alice can’t make the casinos sweat. She can’t. Slot machines—this includes things like video poker, which comprise about 70% of the modern slot machines, rather than the traditional one-armed bandits—do not give full return on your money. According to a survey done from 2001 to 2002, the best you could hope for from a Vegas slot machine at that time was 93.42%. That means that if you put a dollar token into the machine and won, you’d get 93 cents back. And that’s the best. Most slots averaged around 85 to 89 cents. Of all casino games, slots are the ones that earn the most money for the house and that pay the least to the winners.

Alice glided off toward the long roulette tables, and I cringed as I thought of the havoc she would wreak.

Again, there’s not a lot she can do. First of all—again, she’s visibly too young to be in the casino without a parent or guardian, let alone not old enough to bet. Second, even assuming that someone thought she was a young-looking twenty-one-year-old with zero fashion sense, she wouldn’t be making any money. The odds on a roulette table are weighed in favor of the house, and the tables pay out—at most, for payout depends on the kind of bet you make—47 cents for every dollar spent.

And since you have to buy the roulette chips with real money, and then bet with the chips—well, the casino’s already got your cash. And the cash of everyone else at your table. And the cash of everyone else at every other table. And any chips that you lose. And any chips that anyone else at your table loses—and at every other table. Even if you win consistently—and you can’t win every time or that will arouse suspicion—the house still wins. The house is taking in more money than it is paying out.

And big wins are often used as advertising gimmicks. People hear that one person has one and believe that they’ll be next. Which helps bring in more gamblers and more money.

So even if she gets to bet, Alice is not going to wreak havoc. Alice is barely going to be a ripple in the casino’s day.

I think it goes without saying that the part about the roulette is completely wrong. But what about slot machines? I know they typically use pseudo random number generators, so someone with precognitive powers should be able to see which ones are due to win and thus beat the average payout.

If slot machine PRNGs use a timestamp as a seed (does anyone know if slot machines typically seed with timestamps?) this could make it difficult for the psychic as the seed could be made to vary every millisecond. In order to win, the psychic would have to press that play button at exactly the right moment--this would only work if the premonitions are specific enough down to the millisecond and if the person can "use the force" do guide them in pressing the button.

Perhaps the best psychic countermeasure for slot machines would be to have them use a payment management system instead of PRNG. By payment management system I mean linking all the machines and having them pay out a fixed percentage of their intake.

 

[jsfisher]

About the casino thing, I found someone who claims that precognitive powers won't help you win at roulette or slot machines. http://das-sporking.livejournal.com/141379.html

Here are the relevant portions:

I think it goes without saying that the part about the roulette is completely wrong. But what about slot machines? I know they typically use pseudo random number generators, so someone with precognitive powers should be able to see which ones are due to win and thus beat the average payout.

It is completely wrong about slot machines, too. Yes, they have a built-in expected hit rate to give a payout expectation of less than one for even wagers (or random wagers for that matter). Still, you can use precognition in two ways. First, you could wander around the casino sniffing for a machine about to hit big. That's the one you slip a coin into.

Second, if you prefer to just stay seated in front of one machine, you could vary our wager. Minimum when the machine is about to post a loser; maximum when any payout is due.

If slot machine PRNGs use a timestamp as a seed (does anyone know if slot machines typically seed with timestamps?) this could make it difficult for the psychic as the seed could be made to vary every millisecond. In order to win, the psychic would have to press that play button at exactly the right moment--this would only work if the premonitions are specific enough down to the millisecond and if the person can "use the force" do guide them in pressing the button.

If I remember correctly, the random number generator is free-running and keys of off button presses (a bit of human intervention, there) and such, to select the next number. Shouldn't matter, though. Precognition means you can see a future outcome, not necessarily the path that gets to it.

 

[petrov2500]

If I remember correctly, the random number generator is free-running and keys of off button presses (a bit of human intervention, there) and such, to select the next number. Shouldn't matter, though. Precognition means you can see a future outcome, not necessarily the path that gets to it.

So its as if an invisible wheel was spinning and each space on the wheel corresponds to a particular outcome of the actual slot machine reels. When someone presses the play button the "invisible wheel" stops on the current space and gives the corresponding result.

So even if the "invisible wheel" moves to fast for the psychic to reliably manipulate, he/she should still be able to make a profit by waiting for the jackpot to come due and try to press the button as best he/she can. On the long run, this will probably be enough to overcome the house edge, unless the machine generates random numbers at an extremely fast rate.

 

[Cuddles]

Seems to me we should always keep an open mind, even for things that are almost-certainly false.

What does that have to do with my post, which was a statement on what the purpose of the MDC is?