If anybody could pass the challenge, why would they?

[Jomante]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I'm probably going to get ripped to shreds for this, but this is a genuine curiosity. A little background:

10+ years ago a coworker in another office showed me a psi wheel. I was amazed because I didn't know how it worked. He played it up quite a bit, saying he got it from some mystic place and didn't know how it worked himself but somehow it read his "psychic waves" and sometimes he would look up at it as he was working and it would be spinning really fast. He then got it to spin inside a glass jar, and then he had me do it as well. I suspected it was a magic trick, but had no idea how it was working. When I got back home I couldn't figure out what it was called, until just recently. I'm a skeptic at heart, but I built one anyway to figure it out. I was totally stunned when, from 6 feet away, I made it spin. I wasn't using heat from my hand, and I focused hard to make sure I wasn't breathing differently or subconsciously blowing on it.

Long story short, I figured out that even though I was 6 feet away, when I moved my hand/finger, it was apparently disturbing the air currents enough to get it to move, and that was broken when I put it in a glass jar. But before that, for a brief moment, I had this thought:

Why would someone who had telekinetic ability ever want to take the JREF challenge? I know, I know, a million dollars, but that's chump change to someone who could actually do it and make much more WITHOUT anybody else knowing about it. I could make things float and convince people that I had God on my side and that they needed to give me their life savings. Or to make a more honest living I could rake in money by putting on incredible, unexplainable magic shows.

And consider the downside of having the ability known. Wouldn't just about every government in the world want to figure out how to exploit that capability? If I had the capability I'd be afraid that the governments would want to coerce me into doing something I didn't want to by manipulating my loved ones, or they'd want to subject me to millions of tests to try to figure out how it works so that they can train their elite squads with the capability, or even want to kill me and dissect my brain to figure out how I'm doing it.

Same situation for telepathy. What government wouldn't want the ability to read the mind of a terrorist, or of other government leaders, etc. It probably goes for a lot of "supernatural" powers.

It just seems to me that the million dollar challenge would only attract those who think they can deceive the people running the challenge.

So to my original question for the thread: If anybody could pass the challenge, why would they?

And you don't need to say "Nobody will ever pass the challenge." That's a given. This is a thought experiment.

 

[Weak Kitten]

Hmm, personally I would do it simply for the chance to test the ability with the help of a bunch of intelligent skeptics. If for no other reason than the fact that if they can verify that something is happening then I know it is not a personal delusion or something.

There is also the love of mankind and the desire to move scientific progress forward. If a paranormal ability could be tested and shown to work then all sorts of new experiments and theories could be developed. It could lead to amazing new technological breakthroughs the like of which we can only imagine now. The potential for everything from new entertainment types to new medical treatments could be wonderful.

Still, I must admit that if I did find myself able to do fine control telekinesis I would be sorely tempted to take a week in Vegas before starting actual scientific testing. If I felt guilty afterward I could always donate the winnings to charity.

 

[Moon-Spinner]

If I had a special "Gift", and could rake in big bucks, I think I would be more on the side of caution - I wouldn't let anybody know what I was able to do. It's hard to say what may come over me if put into that situation though.

So for me, I wouldn't take the million dollar challenge, and try to live under the radar.

 

[Brian-M]

I think the million dollar challenge exists for the purpose of dealing with people who claim to have these powers.

The people you who would use their powers dishonestly to deceive people or cheat at gambling, aren't going to go around claiming to have them.

For the ones who do claim to have these powers, it's a sort of put-up or shut-up kind of thing.

After all, if someone is trying to convince the general public that they genuinely have these abilities, then the reasons for not taking the test that you mention don't apply. Plus, it would convince a lot of people that they really do have these powers, which is what they're already trying to do, and earn them a million dollars to spend however they want.

So a skeptic can say, if you really have these powers, why haven't you taken the million dollar challenge?

 

[Jomante]

Weak Kitten: I'm intrigued. Would you have no fear similar to the one I described if it became widely known that you were the only proven telekinetic person in the world? I get your point about wanting to prove that you have not deluded yourself. Does a mad man question if he is mad? Good point. Although you could never conclusively prove that you weren't insane because you could just as easily have created the other skeptics as a figment of your imagination, or maybe just a part of an extended dream.

 

[Jomante]

Brian-M: I agree with the purpose of the test, although that wasn't my initial question. But it brings me to the next point. If somebody ever did pass the challenge, wouldn't it just mean that they were really good in their deception? Because I don't think that somebody who really had a supernatural power would choose to prove it for any sum of money.

 

[Pup]

I think the million dollar challenge exists for the purpose of dealing with people who claim to have these powers.

Yep. People are already claiming to have these powers, so winning the challenge wouldn't make their ability any more public than they've already made it.

 

[yomero]

....
There is also the love of mankind and the desire to move scientific progress forward. If a paranormal ability could be tested and shown to work then all sorts of new experiments and theories could be developed. It could lead to amazing new technological breakthroughs the like of which we can only imagine now. The potential for everything from new entertainment types to new medical treatments could be wonderful.
....

I agree. If I had any paranormal powers, it would be very selfish of me to avoid making those abilities available to the rest of humanity. An analogous case would be if I were bitten by a rabid dog and survived without any vaccination or treatment. I would welcome any studies and tests that researchers would want to do. The first study would probably be to determine if I had indeed been inoculated with the virus. This corresponds to the Randi challenge; ascertain that something paranormal is happening. After that, look for possible explanations.

 

[Brian-M]

Brian-M: I agree with the purpose of the test, although that wasn't my initial question. But it brings me to the next point. If somebody ever did pass the challenge, wouldn't it just mean that they were really good in their deception? Because I don't think that somebody who really had a supernatural power would choose to prove it for any sum of money.

But we've already got people who are genuinely convinced they have supernatural abilities attempting to pass the challenge. This alone should be enough to conclude that some people, if they had supernatural abilities, would accept the challenge.

Plus there are who make money by convincing the general public that they have supernatural abilities. If someone who had genuine supernatural abilities were to take the same career path, they could significantly bolster their reputation by passing the challenge.

So there are situations where people with genuine supernatural abilities would be willing to take the challenge.

 

[wardenclyffe]

If it were me, I'd take the MDC. I'd win the million and then claim that it was all a trick. I would not reveal how the trick was done, but there's nothing to stop me from saying it was a trick after I collect the million. Skeptics around the world would heave a sigh of relief that it was only a trick and they'd have to be more careful in the future. It's just that simple.

If I were already making millions at the racetrack or the roulette wheel, then you are right, there'd be no reason to go for the million.

Ward

 

[Jomante]

Brian-M: Ok, I'll agree with that point. Although anybody convinced that they do have supernatural abilities could already be deemed as having questionable intellect....so probably would not be considering the potential consequences / downside of making the ability known.

 

[CMacDady]

Brian-M: Ok, I'll agree with that point. Although anybody convinced that they do have supernatural abilities could already be deemed as having questionable intellect....so probably would not be considering the potential consequences / downside of making the ability known.

Disagree. To claim that every person who truly believes they have supernatural abilities has low intellect, to a degree that they can not make rational decisions or ponder consequences rationally, is quite ridiculous.

You may find a handful of people that meet that standard but, it only takes one person out of the very many who have attempted, to believe they have supernatural abilities and are rationally intelligent to show that someone who might really have a supernatural ability would attempt the challenge.

This is not difficult. If you feed somebody biased information, without ever subjecting them to any contrary information, constantly you can have someone believe things quite easily.

 

[bruto]

It's an interesting question in a way. I think if I had a paranormal power I would probably not take the challenge if the power were actually useful. If I had a secret power that allowed me to win at casinos or whisk money out of bank vaults or cure diseases, I don't think the challenge would be the best way to exploit it.

But if, like so many of these things, it seems to be useless for anything but showing off, then why not? If all your power amounts to is a parlor trick like bending spoons, then you get a million bucks and a boost to a career of showing off.

If I thought I could actually pull off a million dollar trick, and if I could do it legally, then why not? A million bucks, and you prove something, if not paranormal ability.

 

[Jomante]

Disagree. To claim that every person who truly believes they have supernatural abilities has low intellect, to a degree that they can not make rational decisions or ponder consequences rationally, is quite ridiculous.

LOL, that was intended as tongue-in-cheek and in retrospect would have been better to use the word judgement instead of intellect.

No, I tip my hat to Brian-M. I had figured that anybody who had those abilities for real would definitely not come forth due to the risks involved vs potential payoff, and he proved by example that some of the ones who try the challenge now think they really have supernatural abilities and are not just con artists. So apparently some people don't consider the risks, or weigh them differently. I know I sure wouldn't, though.

 

[jojonete]

While this is not the main subject in the thread, this part of the OP puzzles me:

10+ years ago a coworker in another office showed me a psi wheel.
[...]
He then got it to spin inside a glass jar, and then he had me do it as well.
[...]
Long story short, I figured out that even though I was 6 feet away, when I moved my hand/finger, it was apparently disturbing the air currents enough to get it to move, and that was broken when I put it in a glass jar.

If air currents are broken in a glass jar, how did your co-worker got it to spin inside one?


And, given I'm here, I'll answer the main question:

If anybody could pass the challenge, why would they?

• Some people wouldn't take the challenge even if they had paranormal powers. I even started once a thread about the idea that someone could avoid the challenge thinking it's not legitimate (though nobody seemed to agree with me).
• Some other people would take it, and indeed have taken it.
• Some people are making their powers as public as they can, and they're making money using those powers. The challenge is mainly directed to these people, they all avoid the challenge as much as they can, and it's hard to imagine why they're not willing to make a million dollars for using some powers they use daily to make much less money.

 

[Brian-M]

It's an interesting question in a way. I think if I had a paranormal power I would probably not take the challenge if the power were actually useful. If I had a secret power that allowed me to win at casinos or whisk money out of bank vaults or cure diseases, I don't think the challenge would be the best way to exploit it.

Although, winning the MDC due to this ability would be a terrific advertisement for a magic-healing business that could rake in millions of dollars per year. The prize from the MDC could cover the start-up costs.

 

[Jomante]

While this is not the main subject in the thread, this part of the OP puzzles me:

If air currents are broken in a glass jar, how did your co-worker got it to spin inside one?

It was a magic trick. Only a fraction of the memory came back before I finished the experiment. When I put the jar over it and it stopped, then I recalled him showing me how it was done.

Not sure if this would count as revealing a magician's trick, since the psi wheel is a common woo item, so I'll hide this as a spoiler:

He showed me a squeeze bulb mounted under his desk, tube attached.

 

[TheGoldcountry]

I think the million dollar challenge exists for the purpose of dealing with people who claim to have these powers.

The people you who would use their powers dishonestly to deceive people or cheat at gambling, aren't going to go around claiming to have them.
For the ones who do claim to have these powers, it's a sort of put-up or shut-up kind of thing.

After all, if someone is trying to convince the general public that they genuinely have these abilities, then the reasons for not taking the test that you mention don't apply. Plus, it would convince a lot of people that they really do have these powers, which is what they're already trying to do, and earn them a million dollars to spend however they want.

So a skeptic can say, if you really have these powers, why haven't you taken the million dollar challenge?

Is it dishonest or cheating to use your own inherent abilities to win a game or challenge, if you don't break any of the stated rules? If you psychically "know" the cards in blackjack or poker, do you consciously ignore your own knowledge? Casinos actively encourage people to use craps and roulette "systems" because they know it's BS and they will rake in the money. If you went and told a pit boss that you were going to use your psychic powers to win at blackjack, he would probably laugh at you and get you to a table as fast as possible. Would you feel any guilt then? Does an athlete feel guilty when his superior reflexes and eyesight help him win?

(Keep in mind that if you were too obvious about winning, past a certain statistical probability, the casino would toss you out on the pavement, teeth first, whether they knew how you were winning or not (card counting, spying, whatever). But that's a different discussion.

 

[MikeSun5]

It just seems to me that the million dollar challenge would only attract those who think they can deceive the people running the challenge.

Well, those and the people who are themselves convinced they possess superhuman abilities. During my studying of cold reading and mentalism a long time ago, I went to a few palm/tarot readers (already knowing the techniques they use) to see if I could glean any tips or ideas. Every single one of them had heard about cold reading but insisted they used intuition and/or a medium instead (they did not. They used cold reading). Two of them in particular had come across extremely intelligent.

The thought of having some secret knowledge or power is so enticing, even smart people are convinced of dumb things. I'm convinced of it.

So to my original question for the thread: If anybody could pass the challenge, why would they?

Easy cash. If you're greedy enough to use your magic powers to make dishonest money, why not make $1million honestly with no risk?

 

[MontagK505]

<snip>
Easy cash. If you're greedy enough to use your magic powers to make dishonest money, why not make $1million honestly with no risk?

If you had actual powers that could turn even a modest profit, you might not want to draw attention to yourself.

I'm reminded of a movie titled "Next" where a guy had the ability to see up to two minutes into the future. (fiction of course) Interesting enough, he used his ability as part of a magic act and he would use his ability in casinos to supplement his income. But he was smart enough not to over do it so he wouldn't get his knee caps broken or worse.



.

 

[rjh01]

There is one thing that has not been raised. If one person has the ability then many people are also likely to have this ability and society would have adjusted to that fact. For example first prize at Lotto would be much smaller than expected. Casinos would ban psychics. There would be ads for psychics in the employment pages. None of these exist.

 

[TheGoldcountry]

There is one thing that has not been raised. If one person has the ability then many people are also likely to have this ability and society would have adjusted to that fact. For example first prize at Lotto would be much smaller than expected. Casinos would ban psychics. There would be ads for psychics in the employment pages. None of these exist.

As I said before, casinos welcome self-proclaimed psychics, because they win in the long run. The only people who win in casinos are either card counters, which is almost impossible nowadays, if you don't have an eidetic memory combined with a genius level aptitude with statistics, or cheaters who use mechanical means to win.

 

[rickps]

saying it was a trick after I collect the million. Skeptics around the world would heave a sigh of relief that it was only a trick and they'd have to be more careful in the future. It's just that simple.

I don't think skeptics would heave a sigh of relief. If someone did pass the challenge, I, for one, would be excited at the new knowledge to be had. I think this applies to most skeptics.

 

[Brian-M]

The only people who win in casinos are either card counters, which is almost impossible nowadays, if you don't have an eidetic memory combined with a genius level aptitude with statistics, or cheaters who use mechanical means to win.

You don't need an eidetic memory to count cards. You just have to remember a couple of numbers and add/subtract from these values as the cards are dealt. You don't need a genius level aptitude with statistics either. The math has already been done for you, and can be found at sites like: www.cardcounter.com

I'm not sure how effective it is, though. Presumably casinos replace their stacks of shuffled decks long before they're used up, and it takes a lot of hands to be played before enough cards are counted to be effective.

 

[TheGoldcountry]

You don't need an eidetic memory to count cards. You just have to remember a couple of numbers and add/subtract from these values as the cards are dealt. You don't need a genius level aptitude with statistics either. The math has already been done for you, and can be found at sites like: www.cardcounter.com

I'm not sure how effective it is, though. Presumably casinos replace their stacks of shuffled decks long before they're used up, and it takes a lot of hands to be played before enough cards are counted to be effective.

I know what you're talking about; I have had a small amount of success with one or two deck games, but they cannot be found nowadays. If you can win at blackjack playing against six decks, bravo.

Also, when I did play against one deck, the dealer would notice and reshuffle after one or two hands, effectively negating whatever marginal advantage I had acquired.

ETA: Also, it gets to the point where it becomes real work. I only ever went to casinos to have fun with friends; when it becomes a real job, it goes downhill quickly. I find poker more interesting, because you at least can have fun socializing while you play (though some people have their own arbitrary rules, destroying whatever fun was there to be found).

 

[wardenclyffe]

I don't think skeptics would heave a sigh of relief. If someone did pass the challenge, I, for one, would be excited at the new knowledge to be had. I think this applies to most skeptics.

I'd be excited by the new knowledge, too. But if someone won the million and then said that it was only a trick. I'd be angry that the skeptical community had been tricked, but I'd be relieved that the laws of physics did not have to be re-written. That's how a real psychic can win the MDC and not risk being kidnapped by the CIA. I don't believe they would be kidnapped by the CIA, but that's an excuse they use.

Ward

 

[Lamuella]

let's say that I have a genuine paranormal ability, and I want people to know about it. Let's say for example that I can communicare with another individual by psychic means. If I wished to monetize this ability, it would be in my interests for as many people to know about it as possible, partly because it would open up a lot more revenue streams, partly because it would minimize the chances that I could be "disappeared" by black helicopters.

What better way to start a major publicity drive than by having the world's most famous skeptic proclaim that he had tested me and been unable to disprove my powers?

 

[Cuddles]

partly because it would minimize the chances that I could be "disappeared" by black helicopters.

This is the point missed by all the people arguing that you'd want to keep it quiet to avoid being kidnapped by the CIA, or whatever. In fact, it would work exactly the opposite way around. If you try to keep it quiet, then you're essentially just a random nobody who can easily be disappeared. Sure, it might be less likely that they'll notice you in the first place, but if they do there'd be essentially nothing to stop them doing whatever they want. However, if you're world famous as the only person ever to have actually proven psychic powers, you'd be essentially untouchable. You can't kidnap world famous supermen without people noticing.

Of course, all that kind of misses the rather obvious point that the CIA wouldn't try to kidnap you in the first place. Remember, the CIA has already spent a lot of time and money investigating psychic powers. They had people who really believed in magic conducting experiments on real claims with real people. At no point did it involve kidnapping anyone. And this was back when they were happy to experiment on people with biological and chemical weapons without telling anyone, so it's not like there would have been some kind of taboo or supervision preventing them from doing it if they felt they really needed to. It was just completely unnecessary.

 

[Lamuella]

if you want a really interesting look at the military and CIA attitude to psychic powers, I can heartily recommend The Men Who Stare At Goats by Jon Ronson. The film is less good (although still pretty good), but the book is just incredible.

 

[Jomante]

This is the point missed by all the people arguing that you'd want to keep it quiet to avoid being kidnapped by the CIA, or whatever. In fact, it would work exactly the opposite way around. If you try to keep it quiet, then you're essentially just a random nobody who can easily be disappeared. Sure, it might be less likely that they'll notice you in the first place, but if they do there'd be essentially nothing to stop them doing whatever they want. However, if you're world famous as the only person ever to have actually proven psychic powers, you'd be essentially untouchable. You can't kidnap world famous supermen without people noticing.

News headline:
"World Famous Telekinetic Cuddles Dead" followed by a story of how you died while piloting a plane over the Appalachians, or better yet over the great lakes. "Now" says Mr. CIA guy, "nobody will be looking for you. Let's focus again on making that nuclear power plant in Iran blow up."

And best of all, it'll only be the kooks and conspiracy theorist that would be saying "no, Cuddles is alive and being secretly held by the CIA".

LOL, I crack myself up.

ETA: The CIA doesn't have to kidnap you if you voluntarily choose to do what they are telling you to do. Maybe you wouldn't have qualms about causing a nuclear meltdown in Iran, but I would knowing the number of lives it would affect.

 

[tuoni]

"World Famous Telekinetic Cuddles Dead"

I had to re-read this a couple of times...

 

[Cuddles]

News headline:
"World Famous Telekinetic Cuddles Dead" followed by a story of how you died while piloting a plane over the Appalachians, or better yet over the great lakes.

News headline:
"CIA caught faking evidence of celebrity's death"

As I noted above, the CIA didn't kidnap people when they were investigating psychics at a time when there would have been virtually no consequences for doing so (see here for a list of things they were happy to do over a period of 25 years or so). Now that they're much less able to get away with things, you really think they'll suddenly decide it's a good idea now even though it wasn't back then?

Of course, there's another related point that I haven't noticed mentioned yet - no ability in the entirety of human history has ever been restricted to a single person. If one person does prove to the world that magic is real, they're certainly not going to be the only one that has them. Far more likely is that any shady organisations would go after (most likely trying to recruit rather than kidnapping) all the other who must be around but aren't being followed by the entire world's media.

ETA: The CIA doesn't have to kidnap you if you voluntarily choose to do what they are telling you to do.

Well no. But how exactly is this relevant to a thread about people refusing to make their magic powers public for fear of being kidnapped by the CIA? If they're happy to do whatever the CIA wants, they're hardly going to be scared of the CIA finding out what they can do.

 

[Jomante]

News headline:
As I noted above, the CIA didn't kidnap people when they were investigating psychics at a time when there would have been virtually no consequences for doing so (see here] for a list of things they were happy to do over a period of 25 years or so).

That's what I was trying to address with my second part of the post. The CIA wouldn't have to detain anybody if they were willing accomplices. But I think that's getting to your point you are making that people came forward willingly then so why wouldn't they now?

I guess it comes to a person's own fears. I would have the fear that the CIA, KBG, or some other government agency would try to get me to do something against my will. I don't think it's an entirely unfounded fear, and others have expressed similar concerns so it's not just me. Why wouldn't others have the same fear? Different levels of human trust, I guess. Or maybe rationalizing that "it won't happen to me"

 

[SkepticScott]

First off, many of the claimants are dowsers, and many of them claim to be able to teach others. They'd have no worries about the government.

Secondly, there's a range of usefulness of powers, and government agencies are only a problem in the middle of the range. If the power is not useful, it would win the JREF's $1M, but not be worth the government's time or money. You can't make a very useful weapon out of forcing someone to urinate.

If the power is extremely powerful and useful, such a person could take on the CIA and win. Again, there's no issue.

It's only in the middle that people would have to worry, so it a factor of "human trust" and power.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

...
If anybody could pass the challenge, why would they?
...

The logical thing would be to ask someone who has participated in the challenge or intends to do so.

 

[Pixel42]

The logical thing would be to ask someone who has participated in the challenge or intends to do so.

The last challenge I followed at all closely was that of Connie Sonne, and as I recall she thought that the entities who were responsible for her powers were telling her that it was time to reveal them to the world.

 

[Cuddles]

That's what I was trying to address with my second part of the post. The CIA wouldn't have to detain anybody if they were willing accomplices. But I think that's getting to your point you are making that people came forward willingly then so why wouldn't they now?

No, the point I'm making is that it's completely irrelevant. The point at hand was whether people might try to hide magic powers for fear of some shadowy government agency trying to exploit them. Obviously if someone is happy to work for said agency voluntarily, they can't possibly be worried about their magic powers being known.

I guess it comes to a person's own fears. I would have the fear that the CIA, KBG, or some other government agency would try to get me to do something against my will. I don't think it's an entirely unfounded fear, and others have expressed similar concerns so it's not just me. Why wouldn't others have the same fear?

Again, irrelevant. The simple fact is that many people demonstrably don't have the same fear. There are thousands of people all over the world loudly proclaiming their magic powers and desperately trying to get as many people to hear about them and believe in them. As I said, no ability is unique to one person. That you are scared of the CIA, or whoever, is irrelevant, since there are clearly plenty of people around who aren't.

 

[Lamuella]

here's an associated question:

Why would someone who advertises having psychic powers and believes they could take and win this challenge not do so?

 

[Ysidro]

Cuddles is right here. To assume that we don't k now of psychics because they're hiding is to assume every single one of them is doing it. Perhaps there's a massive conspiracy of superhumans! Maybe they already run the world!!!

Or maybe not.

 

[Cainkane1]

I'd do it for the money.