Sol, go home, your mother is calling you.
Let's summarize the small part of this unwieldy thread that I've participated in.
Kleinman proposes a simple probabilistic model for evolution, and claims it demonstrates that multiple selection pressures slow the rate of fixations. He gives a nonsensical answer for the rate. I spend five minutes thinking about his model and find the correct answer - which is that the rate of fixation under N pressures scales as N/Log(N), an
increasing function of N. Put another way, the time required for N fixations only grows as Log(N), so 1,000,000 fixations take only about 14 times as long as 1.
I point this out to kleinman, who first denies it, and then admits he was wrong, saying
kleinman said:
I don’t claim to be an expert in probability theory.
But after admitting that, he flipflops back and continues to claim that the rate decreases (while continuing to ignore all evidence to the contrary, which is all evidence). This is clearly not rational behavior, and there are two possibilities: that he knows he is wrong and is simply lying, or that he is in denial and truly believes. If he's lying he will refuse a bet with real money, but if he actually believes he is correct he should accept eagerly.
Therefore I offer him a bet on the subject, which, after some prodding he
accepts (or rather he accepts his own version of it). He wants to bet using the program ev, which is more or less just a complicated version of the simple model I had analyzed.
After it becomes clear that I'm entirely serious on betting real money, he pauses to think and realizes again that he's wrong (probably by experimenting with ev and finding it out for himself - something you'd have thought he would have done around 6,000 posts ago). So then he chickens out, flipflops yet again, and withdraws from the bet, hence proving himself both a hypocrite and a liar.
So, folks, what's next for the amazing kleinman? How many more flipflops will he take? Will the thread continue, now that he's admitted twice that his core contention is wrong? Will the repeated humiliations finally take their toll and shame him into silence? Or will he be forced by foolish pride into accepting this bet, costing himself $10,000?
Any predictions?