Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[acbytesla]

Where on earth did you learn to think and write in this crude fashion? God help us.

Sorry, this is definitely crude, and I really don't want to think and write like this. Dan O has suggested that Rudy's DNA "accidentally found it's way inside Meredith. He as posited a theory that Rudy lifted Meredith by her bra strap and by between her legs and his finger or thumb just happened to be at that spot.

In response, I probably went over the top describing his theory too crudely. I sincerely apologize if I offended you.

 

[Bill Williams]

I take no position, really, on the latest controversy in this forum, except to say that the "method" of argumentation I sense Dan O. is using is reminiscent of what has gone wrong over all. If pushed I'm not sure how strong I'd stick to that observation, and am comfortable leaving it to others.

Strangely, though, I cannot call the kettle black. I, too, have become wedded to theories where perhaps the theory is too closely adhered to in sifting through evidence, rather than the other way around.

What I'm eternally grateful for is that this thread (so far) has been exempt from Godwin's Law. It states that in internet discussions, esp. the vigourous ones, someone soon calls their opponent a Nazi. So far this thread has not so devolved.

 

[Bill Williams]

Sorry, this is definitely crude, and I really don't want to think and write like this. Dan O has suggested that Rudy's DNA "accidentally found it's way inside Meredith. He as posited a theory that Rudy lifted Meredith by her bra strap and by between her legs and his finger or thumb just happened to be at that spot.

In response, I probably went over the top describing his theory too crudely. I sincerely apologize if I offended you.

Way, way too crude for me. Thanks for the apology and the quick response to SuperCal's concern.

 

[Grinder]

I really hate these pictures. It saddens me deeply.

While I respect Dan immensely, I do believe he is way off track on this. We all do go off on tangents sometimes and I respect his mind for exploring it. But never the less, I tend to agree with Bruce on this. It is wild speculation that tries to imagine every move and I don't think you can do that with this evidence. There is a 99.5 percent chance that Meredith was sexually assaulted or raped as is the term today for any penetration and probably much less than the remaining .5 percent chance that it happened in the way that Dan is imagining.

I don't like this whole avenue of discussion because I don't really see how it makes a difference as to AK and RS's guilt or innocence.

Even the GE discussion is unpleasant.

What I really hat though is totally made up percentages when they come from pure speculation.

The same guy that claimed a 9:20 scream that people here accept to fit their theory also said the sex was consensual and the police at first suspected that it was.

Where on earth did you learn to think and write in this crude fashion? God help us.

I agree but wish you hadn't of put the expression up again.

Regardless of one's position on guilt there is no reason for these kind of graphic wordings.

 

[Planigale]

Even in the US, courts have a preference for thought experiments and the opinions of "certified experts" over actual experiments. Perhaps because the legal rules were developed before widespread acceptance of the scientific method.

I had previously expressed the opinion that AK / RS defence were poor. Recently as AK has posted documents from the court case I think the defence tried to cover most bases but they were just ignored. I actually think they did a reasonable job.

I have just read the defence ballistics expert who did experiments on throwing rocks through windows to demonstrate that' the rock must have been thrown from the outside. While not having access to the presentation, the transcription is quite convincing, and makes all the points others have made with regards to the impact on the internal shutter and distribution of glass. The prosecution and civil parties' lawyers focussed on such things as the defence expert witness was a firearms specialist and not an engineer (so the empirical observations were irrelevant?) and did they try throwing the stone through the window with closed external shutters (even the judge thought this was tiresome). There seems to be no prosecution expert to refute the defence. So we have an unopposed defence expert opinion, the prosecution et al. utilise ad hominem attacks and fatuous 'this was not exactly identical to what might have been the distribution of the furniture and external shutters' arguments to cancel out the experimental facts. I think once one considers the work done by the defence experts on the foot prints, break in, etc. I think the defence made pretty good case, the extraordinary thing is how good arguments were just ignored. Some form of rhetorical case won out over the experimental facts.

 

[acbytesla]

I don't like this whole avenue of discussion because I don't really see how it makes a difference as to AK and RS's guilt or innocence.

Even the GE discussion is unpleasant.

What I really hat though is totally made up percentages when they come from pure speculation.

I actually appreciate the opinion on the percentages, I guess is it is my way of saying that I think the odds of Dan O's theory on this is somewhere between slim and none.

I admit to speculating a little about what happened that night inside the cottage and I think that really is absurd too. I think we can confidently say that Rudy murdered Meredith with a knife and put his finger inside Meredith. The rest is really conjecture and actually assigning odds is just kind of gamblers approach but there never will be a payoff on this because we will never know.

 

[RWVBWL]

I don't like this whole avenue of discussion because I don't really see how it makes a difference as to AK and RS's guilt or innocence.
<snip>

I disagree, here's why.
AK and RS were convicted, with Rudy Guede of a group murder.

Real questions:
What were Amanda and Raffaele doing if Rudy Guede was having sex or digitally raping Meredith until he possibly ejaculated? Were they sitting on the bed watching? Standing around and watching?

Why is only Rudy's DNA, his fingerprints, his shoe prints found conclusively in Meredith's bedroom that night she was murdered?


Look, I've mentioned before how I had to go to civil, not criminal, court to defend myself from rape allegations from a gal I knew. Do you folks know how freaked out that experience was for me? This gal wanted a lot of money from me as I ran a small, well known surfshop. And during court, full of complete strangers, I had to discuss all of the little intimate details from that evening, night, and next morning, everything which proved I was innocent of raping this woman, a friend...

I can relate to Amanda and Raff a bit,
havin' to go to court for something serious, something horrible, that you did not do!

When we discuss all of the little, important intimate details of this brutal murder case, everything continues to point to Rudy Guede. That Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito are indeed innocent and were wrongly convicted, once, and now recently, again.

I'm sorry if the little details bother some folks,
and if I've offended anyone, well I'll try not to next time...
RW

 

[Bruce Fischer]

Is this a fact now? The transplanted stain certainly shows the characteristic rings of Rudy's shoe. But can you definitely attribute it to only Rudy's shoe to the exclusion of all others? What about Meredith's new boyfriend from the lower flat? Has it been assertained that he did not have similar shoes? We know that the prosecution had a pair of similar shoes that they acquired on the 6th but they had a different number of rings. Where is the graphic that shows the alignment of the rings in the second stain with Rudy's shoe?

The print matches Guede's shoes. Are you going to suggest that another person had similar shoes at a previous time that just happened to ejaculate in Meredith's room and then jump around on her pillow? I believe that Meredith's pillow was stepped on for the first time on the night of her attack. Shoe prints on a pillow are not a normal occurrence.

http://www.injusticeinperugia.org/Vinci.pdf

 

[RWVBWL]

Hi Dan O.,
When I look at the bedroom photo's, I wonder how Rudy Guede, if in a zombie state of mind, did not make and track many more bloody shoeprints around while inside Meredith's bedroom nor when going to the bathroom to fetch towels, or also when he went back to clean himself up...

It's a dissociative state not diminished capacity. People in this state function normally and are able to perform complex tasks including cooking meals and driving a car. They just are not conscious of what they are doing. You've seen the reports of the Spanish girls that Rudy was staying with.

Hi Dan O.,
It's a bitchin' day here in L.A. and I should be at the beach,
instead I was just watching the Nov. 2, 2007 Crime Scene police video...

Found here:
http://murderofmeredithkercher.com/

There's a direct link to it here:
https://mega.co.nz/#!O4Zh3QxY!MLLxQsnTnxYs-zyAwlsjoak4-yw9QIPILsefu8ZDq08


If anyone hasn't seen it, download and watch it,
it's interesting viewing it after reading the Rudy Guede zombie comparison...
RW

 

[Dan O.]

I actually appreciate the opinion on the percentages, I guess is it is my way of saying that I think the odds of Dan O's theory on this is somewhere between slim and none.

Most people just present probability numbers that have more to do with their biases than they have to do with reality. To do probabilities right you would need to back each intermediate result with statistics and combine the probabilities in the chains using Baysian math.

 

[JREF2010]

What ever happened to that pillowcase and the stain in it?

I'll probably always believe it was tested and the Monica Napoleoni/ Lying Squid's did test it, and have hidden the results because it didnt support their persecution of Amanda.

How could a forensic team not test it?

We already know the Migninni and others like Stefonani lied through this case.
The hard-drives etc.. blahblahblah

That's why there is such great support for Amanda and Raffaele, because most anyone can see the corruption and lying of the Prosecution/Team.

 

[acbytesla]

Most people just present probability numbers that have more to do with their biases than they have to do with reality. To do probabilities right you would need to back each intermediate result with statistics and combine the probabilities in the chains using Baysian math.

I agree, I just sort of pulled that out of my backside....but so are the starting odds of most bets at a race track. Granted that changes as soon as the actual betting starts.

 

[anglolawyer]

I agree, I just sort of pulled that out of my backside....but so are the starting odds of most bets at a race track. Granted that changes as soon as the actual betting starts.

You should report yourself to the mods for that personal attack.

 

[acbytesla]

You should report yourself to the mods for that personal attack.

You really are sick.... you know that??

 

[Samson]

You have said this many times and the TV people proved you were right.


There's a channel 6 video too? Wow. What's in it. Joking aside, what explanation can there be for not using that footage to show the judges how easy the climb was. We have had those parkour guys leaping about and a picture of a young lawyer standing on the lower grill. This was a film of the actual window of the actual apartment but the defence teams chose not to show it. I just hope Nencini makes a complete twat of himself and pronounces the climb impossible!

IIRC Massei also ruled out the rock-put because nobody could possibly get the rock through the 11" gap in the shutters. That one drives Randy nuts which is the only reason it doesn't do the same to me. As if the shutters were superglued into the 11" gap position overnight and not subject to the effects of the wind. That has to be one of the most bat **** crazy theories of the whole case (and in a contest in which competition is extremely fierce).

Whatever.

The rock is actually way smaller than the gap, but I am tiring of positing that all the evidence points to a max velocity throw, very noisy, and no one was in the house, not even a dead body. The real break in is by an order of magnitude the easiest thing to prove, and the defence should be spending weeks per trial on this till the complete morons that depend on a staged break in for their infantile theories are exposed.

Grimbal (Graham Rhodes) says

You are one sick person Explain how nobody on the defense managed to climb through the window since it's a shear wall with no handholds at all except one nail which was not bent anyway. So did Guede fly or did he bend the nail back to its original position. You can't come over the roof because there's nothing to hang onto except the guttering which case the entire window frame would have been taken by Guede. Talk about clutching at straws. Tell me do you really enjoy this because all you are doing is making a complete fool of yourself

Harryrag says

harryrag > 15 days ago

You haven't provided any proof that there was a shard of glass embedded in the exterior of one of the shutters.

7 △ ▽

So the shard was photo shopped. Er no. These people need that staging for their sanity. They have lost the plot.

 

[Samson]

When people make arguments that if she ate later it would make the 9:00-9:30 time more likely one sees the confirmation bias. .

Grinder, I found this comment of London John's curious too. But in this context I agree. There is a statistical problem.
1. A very normal healthy young woman is murdered, extremely rare.
2. The autopsy demonstrates she was suffering a very rare medical condition, delayed gastric emptying.

To resolve these statistics it is necessary to move the meal commencement as late as possible, and the time of death as early as possible. For example, 7pm and 9pm. Even then it is extreme. I prefer 7 30pm and 9pm.

 

[Samson]

Where on earth did you learn to think and write in this crude fashion? God help us.

Supercalifragilistic, this thread is dedicated to discovery of the precise events of that date, and much more besides. People are craving a sensible narrative that has two young people slaughtering Meredith in the space of twenty minutes. I presume because you believed they did, you will describe the events, or alternatively theorise on the total time from beginning to end of this grisly killing.

 

[anglolawyer]

You really are sick.... you know that??

the nicest thing anybody said to me all day.




PS I think it should be 'White House'.

 

[Bruce Fischer]

No matter what comes of the 7 year conversation here, I do want to point out that Dan O has the best avatar on JREF. That's one cool cat.

 

[Grinder]

Grinder, I found this comment of London John's curious too. But in this context I agree. There is a statistical problem.
1. A very normal healthy young woman is murdered, extremely rare.
2. The autopsy demonstrates she was suffering a very rare medical condition, delayed gastric emptying.

To resolve these statistics it is necessary to move the meal commencement as late as possible, and the time of death as early as possible. For example, 7pm and 9pm. Even then it is extreme. I prefer 7 30pm and 9pm.

Samson - I think the point LJ was making is that if she ate later it would be more likely that the GE would started between 9 and 9:30 which is true BUT it is also true that the probability that it would be between 9:30 and 10 would also go up. In essence if there is a graph with the X axis being time of day by having the commencement of the meal later the whole graph shifts to the right. Unless the meal is moved to just before 9 the probabilities increase in the 9 - 9:30 time but they also increase after 9:30.

We don't know exactly what and when she ate and from the studies it's hard to judge how long a pizza as described mixed in with apple crisp would take to digest.

LJ assertion is further damaged by his mother using stewed apples instead of fresh ones in that crumble he enjoyed as a boy

This whole odds thing is not the way to look at it anyway. Some horses that go off at 50 to 1 win. Sure it makes it less likely but if there is only a one percent chance does that rule it out (50 to 1 is 2% I know)?

The other side would say that with the knife, the footprints, the bathmat print, the staged break-in and their behavior it doesn't matter that Meredith should have started GE because she didn't.

Think of it this way. If the known location of an alleged shooter was at a distance from a victim, from which a trained marksman only had a one percent chance of hitting the victim, would that let him off? How about if his DNA was found on the bullet and prints on the gun?

For me this logic is just the reverse of the PGP listing a bunch or stuff that doesn't point to guilt but just doesn't look right and when added up makes them guilty.

If it truly could be proven that she couldn't have lived past 9:05 that would be one strong case for innocence.