Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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Thanks Anglo I thought they found it but was too lazy to find a cite.

Eating of the mushroom is impossible because she must have been killed immediately on return because of the GE factors :rolleyes:

Although I haven't done research on this mushroom timing thing, since it wasn't in digestive state it couldn't have been eaten more than a few minutes before death. Now we can't know if she ate just as she returned or some time later. Was there a bottle of wine in the refrigerator or somewhere else? Chris has pointed out that no alcohol was found in the stomach so that would mean if she drank that night and didn't drink at the girls' she would need a few minutes alive after the drink.

The mushroom is very interesting in that it seems to prove that she didn't walk into an immediate attack.


You fixate on the raw mushrooms in the fridge to the point of speculating if there were mushrooms in some other fridge and ignore completely the leftover pizza in the oven. :boggled:

But the fact is that this object was never tested to determine if it was a piece of mushroom. And whether it was mushroom or apple, if it never reached the stomach, the digestion process would not have begun so there is no practical way to say how long it could have been trapped there.

Leftover pizza in the oven?
Right on, I learned something new once again! Thanks, Dan O.
Do you know if it had mushrooms on it?

RandyN said:
The food stuff never identified could have easily been mushroom...a rather common pizza topping in fact. Also mushroom vs apple is only possible if the apples were unpeeled...(doubtful). Otherwise the apples would be almost mush after simply cooking them....let alone after the digestive juices got to them. Mushroom OTOH is a tough little critter...you can test this yourself by boiling a peeled apple slice and a slice of mushroom together and see which one disappears first. It will be the apple...gone into sauce. The mushroom will be around for a long time...it may never break down in a reasonable time...kind of like corn or the hull of a corn kernel at least. (sorry)


Greetings,
The pizza at Robyn's flat was homemade, right?
Was the apple crumble desert homemade also? Or was it made fresh from the bakery of store like my local Vons? Or was it simply a frozen desert that needed to be re-heated? The texture of the apples would be a bit different in a frozen desert I'd think, I know they are in a Hostess Apple pie snack vs a real homemade Apple pie...

It's strange that the identity of that fragment isn't known to be, without doubt, apple or mushroom, for maybe it would help pinpoint the time of attack a little bit better...
RW
 
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My theory is 100% alive and well. Why can you not even advance a rough draft of what you think happened that night? Make a counter argument to mine so we can argue about the differences. Are you afraid because any statement you might advance could be proven wrong? Are you afraid that others will attack you as you are attacking me? Being wrong is the way progress is made. You put up theories and find out which ones don't hold up then you use what you have learned and construct a new theory. If you do this honestly, each iteration brings you closer to understanding the truth.

So far, Randy has done a much better job of questioning my position. He hit on a couple of key points that I had to review. I wish more of the followers of this case were able to make such constructive critical analysis.

You are embarrassing yourself Dan O. I think you may have stared at all this information for too long. I have no interest in debating the case with a person that honestly believes that Meredith's clothes came off by accident and that Guede accidentally raped her. Its beyond comprehension that you would put forth such a theory.

I came here to see if you really believed what you wrote. I have my answer.

I have explained many times what I think happened that night. And my beliefs are supported by evidence. It's all available online.

Have fun with your wild theories and your imaginary table that you keep them on. I hope you come back to reality soon.

I think JREF is a pretty cool place. I like listening to people debating various topics. This case has gone on far too long, and I think the thread has probably seen one too many theories at this point. Please stop and think about what you are saying.
 
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You know, I think Dan actually could make a case that, without the testing of the semen, there is no rock solid evidence that Rudy did assault Meredith sexually. It is doubtful he touched her genitals accidentally, but it's possible. To me, though, there would be no reason for him to move her or position her without a sexual motive. He would have just killed her and left.

When Luca Lalli first examined the body, he said he could not be certain of rape. It's funny how it went from that point to being all about rape in Mignini's mind.

Why did he take her clothes off?
 
Shouldn't there be another semen stain?

Question:
Where is the other semen stain?

Not the 1 on the edge of the pillow case, but the 1 that Rudy stepped in that got onto the bottom of his sneaker that he then transferred onto the middle of the pillow case near Meredith's left hip area.

Pics again, which better show the location of the pillow with Meredith:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9962735&postcount=4192

Some pics from Injustice in Perugia which show the shoe prints are Rudy Guede's:
http://www.injusticeinperugia.org/footprints-04.html

This direct link to old Perugia Shock still works and has a good picture of the probable semen stain,
shown in normal light and with a crimescope
:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100806.../2009/10/defensive-strategy-for-knox-and.html

Some might doubt this as being semen.
From that above link to Perugia Shock:
Even for professor Francesco Vinci the reserve is total. But he's the wizard of all kind of traces, he's the morphologist, the number one in Italy and not only in Italy, the one who provided crucial results such the right attribution of the damning shoeprint at the beginning of the case. I managed to tear just one sentence out of him: I can only say that the stains look like having the typical luminescence of sperm.


The stain between Meredith's legs was not stepped in, there are no shoe ring imprints in it, right?
And that middle stain is only shoe rings, right?

So where's the other probable semen stain,
on the duvet in the photo that Bruce Fisher posted?
Was the duvet ever seen with a crimescope?
Am I wrong on wondering this?
RW
 
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Dan O. said:
Are you saying that sexual assault of a dying incapacitated girl seems logical? The whole of the evidence of sexual assault is that Meredith was naked and Rudy's DNA was found inside her. Any attempted sexual assault puts Rudy very close to this spurting neck wound and Meredith coughing out blood. Rudy would have blood spray all over his upper body. I just don't see that hapening in any reality. The most I can see is digital penetration and I don't see any rational for that so I posit the accident.



Hi Dan O.,
Might Meredith have been laying on her left side for a bit when Rudy raped her?
Her throat wound would be facing downward, his sneaker imprints a little easier to visualize. Just a thought, for if Meredith was still alive, she might have been moving and was in a different position when the rape 1st started, or ended, or when she died...
 
Why did he take her clothes off?
.
I wonder if the reason for some of Meredith's clothes being off is that when she came home she was intending to change into pajamas, or sweat pants, or maybe take a shower. She might have gone to her bedroom, kicked off her shoes, removed her socks, slid her jeans and panties off. Perhaps her way of taking panties off was to roll them down with the palms of her hands.

Maybe after that she went to the kitchen to get something and caught Rudy sneaking out of the bathroom. Or maybe Rudy peeked and caught a glimpse of her half naked in the bedroom.

Some questions that come to mind looking at that picture are:

  • - What caused that distinct dark red streak on the pillow?
  • - How did the body end up partly on top of the duvet? I don't think it is easy to drag a limp body onto a duvet on a slippery floor unless one is standing on the duvet to keep it from moving.
  • - Why were the bloody sheet, and bloody towel underneath the duvet (over by the bed)?
  • - Why are Meredith's right arm and right leg off to the side? Were they they used to drag Meredith over by the bed and onto the duvet?
  • - Why are the footprints on the pillow under her body? Did he push the pillow under her with his feet while lifting her on her left side?
  • - Why is there significant blood on the pillow under her right leg? Did it come from her leg? If not where?
  • - And one other, in the picture that was shown, where is the bra clasp relative to the pillow and the inspector's feet?
.
 
Ah, but for our purposes (and the court's purposes), the statistical analysis that matters is Bayesian conditional analysis.

That's to say, we must pose the following question: given that we know that the victim was still alive at 9.00pm, what are the probabilities of her dying at 9-9,30, 9.30-10, 10-10.30, 10.30+?

So even though it's statistically unlikely that Meredith died later than 9pm - the important thing is that we know this to be the case. The correct evaluation in the light of this conditional knowledge is to look at the shape of the probability distribution curve to the right of the time we know to be the effective "start" time on death (corresponding to 9pm in our case). If the "curve" were a horizontal flat line beyond this point, then effectively one could say that there's an equal probability of death occurring at any time later than 9pm (regardless of whether death later than 9pm is improbable in itself).

But the curve is not a horizontal flat line in this case. It's the end of a bell curve that slopes down to zero by around 10.30pm. And this effectively means that given we know that Meredith was still alive at 9pm, it's possible to state that it's still far more probable that she died between 9 and 9.30 than between 9.30 and 10, and that it's impossible that she died later than 10.30.


In fact, we actually have nested conditional probabilities to look at in this case, since (as you point out) there is also some ambiguity as to when the meal started. But that's OK. What we can do to deal with this ambiguity is run a series of analyses based on various different meal start times within the reasonable range.

So we could do:

Analysis 1: If the meal started at 5.30pm, then given that the victim was still alive at 9.00pm, what are the probabilities of her dying at 9-9,30, 9.30-10, 10-10.30, 10.30+?

Analysis 2: If the meal started at 6.00pm, then given that the victim was still alive at 9.00pm, what are the probabilities of her dying at 9-9,30, 9.30-10, 10-10.30, 10.30+?

Analysis 3: If the meal started at 6.30pm, then given that the victim was still alive at 9.00pm, what are the probabilities of her dying at 9-9,30, 9.30-10, 10-10.30, 10.30+?

Analysis 4: If the meal started at 7.00pm, then given that the victim was still alive at 9.00pm, what are the probabilities of her dying at 9-9,30, 9.30-10, 10-10.30, 10.30+?

Ironically (and perhaps counter-intuitively) a later meal start time actually makes it more statistically likely that Meredith died shortly after 9pm. The reason for this is the shape of the bell curve at and after (say) 2 hours after ingestion (corresponding in our case to a 7pm meal start time), compared to the shape of the bell curve at and after 3 hours after ingestion (corresponding to a 6pm meal start time). If this requires further explanation and clarification, I'll be happy to do so but will probably need to construct a number of graphs to illustrate the principles.

This is a good explanation, you are far better at explaining stuff than I am. FWIW once one utilises Bayesian stats one gets away from needing to use a 'bell' curve. Gastric emptying is probably better analysed using a gamma curve, this can have a long right tail and is not symmetrical. Classical frequentist stats would 'normalise' the distribution e.g. by using log of times, a better way is to use a non-normal distribution, which is now easy using modern computing but was historically very difficult.
 
:)

Kaosium – you brought them up [the 25% error bars].
Can you help out LJ here / refresh his memory ????

LJ – I hope you are not just making numbers up and then forgetting about them.

:):)

50% of data points lie between the 25% error bars centred on the median. Often used when data not normally distributed.
 
Question:
Where is the other semen stain?

Not the 1 on the edge of the pillow case, but the 1 that Rudy stepped in that got onto the bottom of his sneaker that he then transferred onto the middle of the pillow case near Meredith's left hip area.

Pics again, which better show the location of the pillow with Meredith:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9962735&postcount=4192

Some pics from Injustice in Perugia which show the shoe prints are Rudy Guede's:
http://www.injusticeinperugia.org/footprints-04.html

This direct link to old Perugia Shock still works and has a good picture of the probable semen stain,
shown in normal light and with a crimescope
:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100806.../2009/10/defensive-strategy-for-knox-and.html

Some might doubt this as being semen.
From that above link to Perugia Shock:
Even for professor Francesco Vinci the reserve is total. But he's the wizard of all kind of traces, he's the morphologist, the number one in Italy and not only in Italy, the one who provided crucial results such the right attribution of the damning shoeprint at the beginning of the case. I managed to tear just one sentence out of him: I can only say that the stains look like having the typical luminescence of sperm.


The stain between Meredith's legs was not stepped in, there are no shoe ring imprints in it, right?
And that middle stain is only shoe rings, right?

So where's the other probable semen stain,
on the duvet in the photo that Bruce Fisher posted?
Was the duvet ever seen with a crimescope?
Am I wrong on wondering this?
RW

I saw someone post this about a week ago. It has Professor Vinci's presentation translated. http://murderofmeredithkercher.com/failed-sexual-assault-investigation/
 
I don't understand why you think it important, he simply allowed for a huge margin for error as there's little data at the end of these curves. He was never trying to predict anything with the precision you seem to think he was, those error bars are proof of that. The numbers didn't come out rounded off because of the formula he had to use, is that what made you think he was stating it with absolute precision, despite the allowance of massive error bars like that?


Yeah - it's frustrating (but illuminating) when people are not prepared to debate in good faith. I guess some people just get a kick out of agitating for its own sake. Sad.

As you say, the error margins were specifically designed to show that even with generous leeway (which is appropriate, given the relatively low sample numbers involved in gathering the experimental data), a proper statistical analysis clearly indicates that a) it's to all intent impossible for an otherwise healthy young adult to have failed to pass any food from the stomach to the duodenum within 4 hours of ingestion, and b) it's hugely likely - given that we know that no food had passed from the stomach within some 2.5 hours of eating - that food transit from the stomach would start within 2.5 and 3 hours after ingestion (and an almost total likelihood that food transit would have started between 2.5 and 3.5 hours after ingestion). In other words, when applied to this case, it's hugely likely that Meredith died (or was mortally wounded) between 9pm and 9.30pm, and almost certain that she died between 9pm and 10pm. And it's impossible that she died any later than 10.30pm.
 
50% of data points lie between the 25% error bars centred on the median. Often used when data not normally distributed.


Yes. The bell curve of probability distribution for T(lag) is an asymmetric normal curve. This means that it obeys the basic properties (and shapes) of a normal curve, but that it's asymmetric around the median (which is the top of the curve).

The reason why it's asymmetric is simple: the left hand side of the curve is - by definition - hemmed in by t=0. A person cannot start to pass a meal from the stomach before they have even ingested it! What this means in practice is that the left hand side of the curve (i.e. to the left of the peak of the curve) is slightly squashed horizontally relative to the right hand side of the curve.

Other than that, though, the regular rules of normal distribution apply, provided that you use slightly different variances either side of the median. It also means that the median and the mean are not quite the same - as they would be in a pure normal curve. But it's perfectly possible - and perfectly appropriate - to apply standard normal curve analysis to the right hand side of the curve for T(lag).

Incidentally, as Kaosium has already pointed out, this curve must necessarily fall to zero either side of the median. And the recognisable shape of the curve, generated from experimental data, shows clearly that the curve must fall to zero within a fairly tightly-defined region on the right hand side of the curve, which corresponds to somewhere between 3 and 4 hours after ingestion.
 
Her conviction would “easily satisfy the conditions of the treaty,” said Prof Ku. “So it would be hard for the US to explain why she should not be handed over”.
Prof Ku may be technically correct. How will this sit with the American people? I find this of deep interest, because there is no chance that we would allow an Auckland woman be extradited when the science precludes her involvement in the crime for which extradition is being sought.
 
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Hi Dan O.,
Might Meredith have been laying on her left side for a bit when Rudy raped her?
Her throat wound would be facing downward, his sneaker imprints a little easier to visualize. Just a thought, for if Meredith was still alive, she might have been moving and was in a different position when the rape 1st started, or ended, or when she died...


That's exactly the position I suggested she was in when Rudy was trying to lift her by grabing the band of her bra and the inside of her right thigh. If you look at the clasp and visualize how it was attached to the bra and positioned on Meredith, you will notice that it is the top hook that is compleatly deformed while the bottom hook is unscathed. We can see how this happened when we visualize the process of the bra comming apart. When the right sholder strap has mostly unstitched from the band it will be pulling up on the clasp causing the clasp to rotate relative to the eyes on the other half of the band. This rotation allows the lower hook to slip out of it's eye and puts all the tension on the upper hook causing it to deform.

In the outline of Meredith on the pillow, we see that her left leg is straight and the right leg is bent out. Now imagine yourself in Meredith's place when Rudy tries to lift her. You are laying on your left side. He grabs the bra band behind your right sholder then he reaches his big hand between your legs to hook the right thigh as high up as possible in order to lift the body. Reach there with your own right hand and hook your fingers deep under your thigh. Where is your thumb?
 
.
I wonder if the reason for some of Meredith's clothes being off is that when she came home she was intending to change into pajamas, or sweat pants, or maybe take a shower. She might have gone to her bedroom, kicked off her shoes, removed her socks, slid her jeans and panties off. Perhaps her way of taking panties off was to roll them down with the palms of her hands.


There is conflicting information on those pants. They ended up by the bed almost neatly laid out and partially under the duvet. This was one of my other thoughts that Meredith came home and was making herself comfortable. The shoes would come off first slipping one off then untying the other. She pulls her pants off and if not done carefully the underpants will roll themself partway down her legs so she takes them off too. Then possibly the socks but the floor is cold and the socks got bloodied so maybe she left the socks on. Her next move would be to slip on her bunny slippers but they are out on the drying rack so she steps out of her room. That is when she comes face to face with Rudy who is trying to sneak out.



Some questions that come to mind looking at that picture are:

  • - What caused that distinct dark red streak on the pillow?
  • - How did the body end up partly on top of the duvet? I don't think it is easy to drag a limp body onto a duvet on a slippery floor unless one is standing on the duvet to keep it from moving.
  • - Why were the bloody sheet, and bloody towel underneath the duvet (over by the bed)?
  • - Why are Meredith's right arm and right leg off to the side? Were they they used to drag Meredith over by the bed and onto the duvet?
  • - Why are the footprints on the pillow under her body? Did he push the pillow under her with his feet while lifting her on her left side?
  • - Why is there significant blood on the pillow under her right leg? Did it come from her leg? If not where?
  • - And one other, in the picture that was shown, where is the bra clasp relative to the pillow and the inspector's feet?
.

All of the red is probably Meredith's blood. I haven't seen photos with enough clarity to piece together what painted it there.

It is possible that the duvet was already on the floor. Meredith was doing laundry that day and may have washed the sheets. The objects on the bare bed were not pulled off when the duvet was moved. There is a square shadow in the blood splatter in front of the wardrobe that could be where the clean folded sheets were.

At some point, Rudy grabbed the pillow on the edge leaving his bloody palm print. What Rudy was doing when he left the shoeprints on the pillow is difficult to say. The way to solve this is to take all of the theories and cooriograph the movements to see which ones are physically possible.

The best I can determine from the available photographic record is tha the bra clasp was initially discovered directly under the center of the pillow. But then we know from other events that these inspectors had a habit of putting things back in different locations for the photo op. Also, once it was photographed, why was it left there? Or, was it left there??
 
There is the potential for ambiguity as to the meaning of the term lag phase in some of the papers I have read. There appear to be two definitions that are not numerically identical. One refers to the point at which 10% of the test meal has emptied, and the other is related to an inflection point in a graph where time is the x-axis.

Hellmig et al. (2006) wrote, “Integrated software solutions calculated half gastric emptying time (T1/2) and the lag phase (Tlag) as the point of maximum gastric emptying according to Ghoos et al. and Maes et al.14,15 The 13C breath test applied followed a standard protocol used in numerous preceding studies.”
14 Ghoos YF, Maes BD, Geypens BJ et al. Measurement of gastric emptying rate of solids by means of a carbon-labeled octanoic acid breath test. Gastroenterology 1993; 104: 1640–7.
15 Maes BD, Hiele MI, Geypens BJ et al. Pharmacological modulation of gastric emptying rate of solids as measured by the carbon labeled octanoic acid breath test: influence of erythromycin and propantheline. Gut 1994; 35: 333–7.

A paper by Siegel et al., (Gut, 1988, 29, 85-89) uses the following equation: y(t) = 1-(1-e-kt) β. Some papers use b instead of β. The function y(t) is the fraction of the meal remaining at time t. The parameter β is “the extrapolated y-intercept from the terminal [linear] portion of the curve as shown in Figure 1.” These authors wrote, “TLAG, which is numerically equal to ln(β/k) and is the time in minutes when the second derivative of the function is equal to zero (Figure 1). I played around with this equation about a year ago. IIRC TLAG was indeed the inflection point of the curve when the y-axis was presented on linear scale(Figure 1 is shown with a logarithmic scale), hence the title of my previous comment on this subject.

Chen et al. (J. Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2003, 18, 41-46) used the same formula as Siegel and coworkers: “Scintigraphic GE data were fitted by a modified power exponential formula y(t) =1-(1-e–kt)β, presented by Siegel et al.,16 where y(t) is the fractional meal retention at time t, k is the GE rate per minute, t is the time interval in minutes, and β is the extrapolated y-intercept from the terminal portion of the curve.” They wrote, tlagS “signifies that 10% of the test meal is emptied.” The S indicates data measured by scintillography.

The next paragraph covers the 13C octanoic acid breath test. They use two formulas, the second of which is “y = m(1-e–kt)β (where y is the percentage of cumulative recovery of the dose of 13C in the breath, t is the time in hours, and m, k and β are constants, with m being the total cumulative 13C recovery when time is infinite).” They define tlagB = (-1/k)•ln(1-(0.1)1/β), where the B indicates breath test data.
16 Siegel JA, Urbain JLC, Krevsky B et al. Biphasic nature of gastric emptying. Gut 1988; 29: 85–9.

Nusynowitz and Benedetto (J. Nuclear Medicine, 1995, 35, 1023-1027) implied that the lag phase is a “period of minimal or absent emptying…”. They also wrote, “A power-exponential or modified power exponential function has been proposed and extensively employed (3,8,13), but this empirical fitting procedure is neither necessary nor desirable.” They use something called the starting index (SI) as a measure of the lag phase.

Abell et al. (Am J Gastroenterol 2008;103:753–763) wrote, “The GE curve can be analyzed in several mathematical ways to determine both the emptying rate and the lag phase. A curve fitting procedure such as a dual exponential equation (modified power exponential) has been used, namely, y = 100[1 – (1- e −kt) b] where y is the percent remaining at time t, k is an exponential emptying rate constant (fraction of amount present at time t), and b is the y-intercept of the terminal exponential with slope = −k. The lag time can be then calculated as ln(b)/k. Slope and lag time may be helpful to interpret borderline results.”


If I understand this a little, it basically means that some don't register T(lag) until a point later in the digestion than first chyme entering the duodenum. So if a study had 80 min as the median or 180 min as the longest, the movement had started earlier if we are looking at what we have called T(lag) if the study used the point of inflection instead.

It's early here and the coffee is just kicking in so perhaps I'm not getting it or your point.

It does make sense that the big consensus study I've referred to had T(lag) between 10 and 30 minutes which would line up with the shorter methodology. Maybe?

If in fact "real" T(lag) is much shorter than the 80/120 minute results then it heightens my belief that Lalli missed something, Meredith ate just
before leaving or her medical condition caused significant delay.

If I understand the two definitions of T(lag) it as if this science is run by Italians making the conclusions compatible with whatever one wants.

How can a science have two definitions for the same thing that is seemingly important to determining someone's health.

Chris if this is all wrong please let everyone know and if you think the explanation is too boring please PM it to me.
 
...The stain between Meredith's legs was not stepped in, there are no shoe ring imprints in it, right?
And that middle stain is only shoe rings, right?

So where's the other probable semen stain,
on the duvet in the photo that Bruce Fisher posted?
Was the duvet ever seen with a crimescope?
Am I wrong on wondering this?
RW


You might be wrong. After a short period of time the semen leaving the initial stain will have soaked into the fabric. It needs to be still fresh enough to adhere to the bottom of Rudy's shoe but there is no thickness to be spread out.

There is a coincidence of the one bloody shoe print lining up with the transferred semen stain. But there is no semen stain showing at the other shoe prints. These may have been created at different times and not part of the same track.
 
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This is a different point. It's not the fast track procedure per se that caused the problem but the fact the ISC required findings in A & R's trial to agree with earlier findings in Rudy's, especially the finding that there were multiple killers.

It would seem that changes of the internal system of justice wouldn't negate a treaty. If we had a treaty with Italy when the system supposedly switched over to an adversarial system did that require an amended or new treaty?

That would have been a much bigger change.

As I understand it the Constitution protects all people, not just citizens, while IN the United States of America not all citizens no matter where in the world. It protects people from being tried twice IN the USA not worldwide. The Italian system is not unique and is accepted as a reasonable approach by international law.

The way they handled the fast track, the Lumumba calunnia and the civil lawyers in the trial seem just plain wrong but seemingly legal there.
 
Leftover pizza in the oven?
Right on, I learned something new once again! Thanks, Dan O.
Do you know if it had mushrooms on it?


This comes from Filomena's testimony. She and Marco prepared a pizza at the cottage on Halloween night I believe when Meredith returned home briefly and then left for dinner with her friends. It is the testimony or complaint of the landlord where we learn it was still in the oven when she got the property back. I don't recall what was on it but with fresh mushrooms in the fridge, why wouldn't they have been used?
 
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