Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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Kaosium – you brought them up [the 25% error bars].
Can you help out LJ here / refresh his memory :)

LJ – I hope you are not just making numbers up and then forgetting about them ;)


No - you brought them up, in a question directed at me.

Tell me more and I will try to help you. Don't ask others to do your work for you.
 
What possible difference would it make to Introna that Lalli said 2-3 hours instead of 2-4 hours? Try being specific.

6:30 + 3 hours = 9:30. It's nice when it can be shown the prosecution's numbers don't add up.



It doesn't say they did finish it After we ate the apple crumble with ice cream, then We did chat and then to the nine,
have gone because it was supposed to be just a meeting place for the
the afternoon​

If they watched to the end a more normal way to express it would be to say they watched the movie and went home rather explaining why they left just before 9.

The timing of everything except Meredith's arrival home is vague.



Using the run time of the movie doesn't add anything because they stopped on more than one occasion for eating, at other times to chat and it doesn't appear they watched to the end.

There's no evidence that occurred and the evidence you presented suggests otherwise. If they stopped the movie to talk and eat that suggests there was someone there interested in following it, which going from that brief snippet was probably not the person re-telling it there. If no one cared then what would be the point in stopping it? If they'd stopped it before to chit-chat and restarted so they could stop it for the apple crumble you gotta figure there was someone there still interested or they wouldn't even bother at all.

We also don't know if Meredith ate at the same time. Somewhere I saw a quote of one of the girls saying Meredith didn't feel well and ate lightly. I thought it was posted here. Nope it was at the link you gave me - Sophie Purton said that Meredith ate only part of her pizza.

Oh my! To be clear I'm not saying this is true as I can't find the source because it comes from CD.

Yes, we know Meredith ate at the same time, it's in what you posted.

Guess it was the royal we.

That was a joke, she said 'we ate' which it appears google translate rendered as 'we had eaten' or however it came out.

Yes at some point everyone will have GE. The study you sent me to at Chris' says the longest time in that study was 200 min which puts a 6:30 meal GE at 9:50 BUT that was for a tiny meal without the fat content of the pizza meal.

I don't know what makes you think that meal is significantly smaller than what Meredith was reported to eat, and it does contain the sorts of foods which the studies say take longer for the stomach to process or inhibit it.

The size of the meal is not a big factor in how long it takes for the gastric emptying process to start. It does of course affect the time it takes to go halfway (T (1/2) or complete.

Well that's kind of what I've been asking for. But I'd like to know what the results would be for a normal meal more like a pizza and apple pie. Also I'd like the numbers on 180 and 150 minutes without GE as clearly the shorter time would have more additional minutes for the remaining subjects.

Well you do know that 25% of that sample took longer than 102 minutes but by the time 170 minutes rolled around only two were left. That's what this means:

Chris Halkides VFW 7/1/12 said:
The median time was 82 minutes, with the 25% percentile at 66 min. and the 75% percentile at 102 min. Out of 82 subjects (Figure 1D), the longest value was 200 minutes, and the next longest was 170 minutes (each value corresponded to a single individual).

They dropped like flies, didn't they? Kinda like going from 80 to 110 years in age...
 
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I don’t know about that but you’d definitely save a quarter.

No - you brought them up, in a question directed at me.

Tell me more and I will try to help you. Don't ask others to do your work for you.

:)

Kaosium – you brought them up [the 25% error bars].
Can you help out LJ here / refresh his memory ????

LJ – I hope you are not just making numbers up and then forgetting about them.

:):)
 
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The tests with smaller easier to digest foods would have a quicker GE. The longest times would also be greater for bigger more difficult to digest food.

More difficult to digest is important, if you don't chew your food properly it will take longer too they say, but what really matters here is the substance that the stomach has to process and whether there's anything inhibiting that like alcohol and dairy products can. That's for the GE process to start, then the amount plays a bigger factor in how long it takes to go halfway or complete.

Two of the girls had the meal starting earlier but hey if it doesn't fit your theory...

I'm perfectly comfortable with any meal time starting from 6:00 to 6:30, which the actual evidence suggests. The one throwing the hardest facts out because they have trouble with improbabilities is you. The odd thing is that it doesn't actually matter that much to the basic argument, but I've despaired of trying to explain why.

I keep saying we don't have the "facts" needed for this to provide an alibi. As reported above one of the girls said Meredith was under the weather and didn't eat as much etc.

I know, I already said that. :)
 
:)

Kaosium – you brought them up [the 25% error bars].
Can you help out LJ here / refresh his memory ????

LJ – I hope you are not just making numbers up and then forgetting about them.

:):)

I don't understand why you think it important, he simply allowed for a huge margin for error as there's little data at the end of these curves. He was never trying to predict anything with the precision you seem to think he was, those error bars are proof of that. The numbers didn't come out rounded off because of the formula he had to use, is that what made you think he was stating it with absolute precision, despite the allowance of massive error bars like that?
 
If memory serves, Diocletus has been explaining that there are two lines of competing judicial authority. The first says: comity of nations, nations must be free to enter into treaties and it's not for the courts to subvert the activity of the executive. So, if the treaty says Italy only has to file the certificate of conviction to extradite then that's all there is to it. The second is: the executive cannot deprive a US citizen of his constitutional rights by treaty with a foreign power so if there are grounds for believing Amanda's basic rights (due process, DJ etc) then the treaty must take a back seat.

Ultimately, there is no resolving these two principles. Which one is uppermost will depend on all sorts of things and those things will vary over time. IOW anybody who proclaims that the outcome of extradition proceedings will be X or Y should be viewed with caution. It's not possible to know the outcome.

US v. Bond might tell us. Could be the next big Supreme Court decision.
 
US v. Bond might tell us. Could be the next big Supreme Court decision.

Diocletus and AngloLawyer may wish to read Reid v. Covert.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reid_v._Covert

The United States Supreme Court in 1957 said:
The Court agreed with the petitioners, concluding that as United States citizens they were entitled to the protections of the Bill of Rights, notwithstanding that they committed crimes in foreign soil......

Justice Black declared: "The concept that the Bill of Rights and other constitutional protections against arbitrary government are inoperative when they become inconvenient or when expediency dictates otherwise is a very dangerous doctrine and if allowed to flourish would destroy the benefit of a written Constitution and undermine the basis of our government.".....

The court initially ruled against Mrs. Covert but changed its mind and issued a new decision in her favor after her lawyer, Frederick Bernays Wiener, famously made a successful petition for rehearing. This is the only time the Supreme Court has changed its mind as the result of a petition for rehearing.​
 
The tests with smaller easier to digest foods would have a quicker GE. The longest times would also be greater for bigger more difficult to digest food.




Two of the girls had the meal starting earlier but hey if it doesn't fit your theory...

I keep saying we don't have the "facts" needed for this to provide an alibi. As reported above one of the girls said Meredith was under the weather and didn't eat as much etc.


What alibi?

You have already made the point that computer interaction cant provide an alibi for both. I agree with that btw.

And so no TOD figure between 9:27 and around midnight matters at all anyway. All we who believe computer interaction can be a "one person deal" only must then forget alibi or else go with the prosecution "super witness" alibi. IIRC several courts and prosecutors and appealers have claimed that TOTO is reliable and highly detailed.

So there you have it! The prosecution has "proved" that the TOD was 10...no 10:30...no 11...NO 11:30!!! I don't think any of the idiots have claimed after midnight...yet. Which just might be the best thing for them to do now since it allows for Toto's alibi... that proves their innocence, to be quashed. Why didn't Mignini think of this earlier?

It is not just Toto we are left to rely on either...we have the tow people too. We have RG. Nara. Other ear witnesses. None who confirm a murder after midnight which has to be a requirement if Toto remains in this case.

So there I have solved it. At least the part against the wrongly accused AK and RS.

BTW I recall reading somewhere exactly what Grinder is asserting. That MK was not feeling well (hangover would be my guess) and that she picked at and hardly ate her food. Now that may have come from one of the true crime writers...or even Barbie or Vogtie...I don't recall. But this was claimed by someone...not in court though maybe I think. :-)

Grinder knows this stuff...he plays with people like a cat with a toy...he knew about the alcohol problem Lali created. He knows about all these troubling examples of sloppy, less than professional behavior. All understandable in a society system where peer review can be illegal and even actionable.

Italy = more lawyers per capita than anywhere else on earth! Check it out.


And lawyers in general are the scum of the earth...except for Anglo. :-)
 
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The issue of extradition that Diocletus quotes more than likely relates to the extradition of people between the States, not internationally.

Article IV of the Constitution refers to this, and interestingly enough, there is discussion on whether or not this right of mandatory extradition between the States applies to Puerto Rico, which is a territory of the United States and not a State itself.

International extradition is, as it says, 90% a political consideration and that's before considering whether or not a US citizen's rights are being infringed in the other 10%.
 
The issue of extradition that Diocletus quotes more than likely relates to the extradition of people between the States, not internationally.

Article IV of the Constitution refers to this, and interestingly enough, there is discussion on whether or not this right of mandatory extradition between the States applies to Puerto Rico, which is a territory of the United States and not a State itself.

International extradition is, as it says, 90% a political consideration and that's before considering whether or not a US citizen's rights are being infringed in the other 10%.


It is worth noting that the Feds could show up in Washington State to arrest Knox and that Washington State may have an issue with that. State rights still mater in the less than united United States.
 
definitions of T(lag)

There is the potential for ambiguity as to the meaning of the term lag phase in some of the papers I have read. There appear to be two definitions that are not numerically identical. One refers to the point at which 10% of the test meal has emptied, and the other is related to an inflection point in a graph where time is the x-axis.

Hellmig et al. (2006) wrote, “Integrated software solutions calculated half gastric emptying time (T1/2) and the lag phase (Tlag) as the point of maximum gastric emptying according to Ghoos et al. and Maes et al.14,15 The 13C breath test applied followed a standard protocol used in numerous preceding studies.”
14 Ghoos YF, Maes BD, Geypens BJ et al. Measurement of gastric emptying rate of solids by means of a carbon-labeled octanoic acid breath test. Gastroenterology 1993; 104: 1640–7.
15 Maes BD, Hiele MI, Geypens BJ et al. Pharmacological modulation of gastric emptying rate of solids as measured by the carbon labeled octanoic acid breath test: influence of erythromycin and propantheline. Gut 1994; 35: 333–7.

A paper by Siegel et al., (Gut, 1988, 29, 85-89) uses the following equation: y(t) = 1-(1-e-kt) β. Some papers use b instead of β. The function y(t) is the fraction of the meal remaining at time t. The parameter β is “the extrapolated y-intercept from the terminal [linear] portion of the curve as shown in Figure 1.” These authors wrote, “TLAG, which is numerically equal to ln(β/k) and is the time in minutes when the second derivative of the function is equal to zero (Figure 1). I played around with this equation about a year ago. IIRC TLAG was indeed the inflection point of the curve when the y-axis was presented on linear scale(Figure 1 is shown with a logarithmic scale), hence the title of my previous comment on this subject.

Chen et al. (J. Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2003, 18, 41-46) used the same formula as Siegel and coworkers: “Scintigraphic GE data were fitted by a modified power exponential formula y(t) =1-(1-e–kt)β, presented by Siegel et al.,16 where y(t) is the fractional meal retention at time t, k is the GE rate per minute, t is the time interval in minutes, and β is the extrapolated y-intercept from the terminal portion of the curve.” They wrote, tlagS “signifies that 10% of the test meal is emptied.” The S indicates data measured by scintillography.

The next paragraph covers the 13C octanoic acid breath test. They use two formulas, the second of which is “y = m(1-e–kt)β (where y is the percentage of cumulative recovery of the dose of 13C in the breath, t is the time in hours, and m, k and β are constants, with m being the total cumulative 13C recovery when time is infinite).” They define tlagB = (-1/k)•ln(1-(0.1)1/β), where the B indicates breath test data.
16 Siegel JA, Urbain JLC, Krevsky B et al. Biphasic nature of gastric emptying. Gut 1988; 29: 85–9.

Nusynowitz and Benedetto (J. Nuclear Medicine, 1995, 35, 1023-1027) implied that the lag phase is a “period of minimal or absent emptying…”. They also wrote, “A power-exponential or modified power exponential function has been proposed and extensively employed (3,8,13), but this empirical fitting procedure is neither necessary nor desirable.” They use something called the starting index (SI) as a measure of the lag phase.

Abell et al. (Am J Gastroenterol 2008;103:753–763) wrote, “The GE curve can be analyzed in several mathematical ways to determine both the emptying rate and the lag phase. A curve fitting procedure such as a dual exponential equation (modified power exponential) has been used, namely, y = 100[1 – (1- e −kt) b] where y is the percent remaining at time t, k is an exponential emptying rate constant (fraction of amount present at time t), and b is the y-intercept of the terminal exponential with slope = −k. The lag time can be then calculated as ln(b)/k. Slope and lag time may be helpful to interpret borderline results.”
 
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<snip>
Dating the semen stain because it was tracked by Rudy's bloody shoe is a fine theory but it doesn't work with Meredith's body positioned on the pillow. To try and force the theory to work you have to move the body out of the way when it is inconvenient and then move it back. This is reminiscent of Mignini's double body swap. When you have to add these extra actions for no other reason but to hold onto your theory it is an indication that their is something wrong with the theory.
<snip>


Hi Dan O.,
I too have wondered about the final positioning of Meredith's body on her pillow in relation to Rudy's shoe prints.

What if she was still alive when placed on the pillow and the movements were her own?
 
It is possible that there was some failed sexual activity.
I have to be honest, his defense that they had consensual sex indicates that he did rape her.


Let's assume for the moment that Rudy left his semen on the pillow before Meredith had returned to the cottage. You tell me how Rudy is going to explain this to his friends, to the police, to his lawyer when he knows what they found and where they found it.
 
In fact the fast track trials were introduced long after the treaty was signed. The fast track trial of Rudy meant that he was effectively silenced, despite being the only witness that could describe how the crime he accused Amanda and Raffaele of committing, occurred. Is it possible anywhere else to accuse a person of murder, as an eyewitness, and avoid being called to testify?

This is a different point. It's not the fast track procedure per se that caused the problem but the fact the ISC required findings in A & R's trial to agree with earlier findings in Rudy's, especially the finding that there were multiple killers.
 
Another possibility for that is it might have...come up...during the attack. I think Rolfe suggested that.


Grinder's research said:
These claims were essentially repeated at the hearing on April 3, 2009 (see pages 36 and following the hearing transcripts, April 3, 2009) in which the presence of a fragment of mushroom in the opening of the lower stretch of oesophagus was confirmed, thus in a phase of non-digestion;


Kaosium said:
There's been pictures posted of the fridge with the mushrooms, I think Fine used to post them. It would not surprise me if that was actually a mushroom she snacked on when she came home, perhaps opening the fridge soon after she entered with Rudy in the bathroom. It could also just be misidentified apple crisp and the mushrooms in the fridge a coincidence.


Hi Kaosium,
I'm getting caught up on my reading, thanks for the reply.
It seems from Grinder's post that the fragment was noted to be in a phase of non digestion. If it was apple, it was in Meredith stomach at 1 time for a while as she was kickin' it, relaxing with her friends. So wouldn't the digestion process already have been working on this fragment and have been visible to a coroner if it came back up during the attack?

Also do you have any idea, if it was a mushroom that she snacked on when she came home, how long it would take this mushroom fragment to drop down into the opening of the lower stretch of oesophagus? Mere minutes? 1/2 an hour? Longer?

Meredith gets home at 9:00, starts to get comfortable for the evening, has a bite to eat since she didn't eat much at Robyn's, and is attacked soon afterwards.

Wouldn't the time it took for that mushroom to reach the opening of the lower stretch of oesophagus help pinpoint the time of this attack and her ToD?
Thanks, RW
 
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Diocletus and AngloLawyer may wish to read Reid v. Covert.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reid_v._Covert


That looks like a subtly different point to extradition because there was no quid pro quo. The alternative to overseas US military personnel being tried under a special jurisdiction would simply have been that they be tried locally by the Brits (in this case) which would just be expensive for the latter and might require intrusive and unwanted access to US bases to investigate.

The alternative to putting extradition in place is that folks can commit crimes in your country and then run away to Italy (say) and thereby get off scot free. Over time, that is capable of being seriously corrosive to social order so some relaxation of strict constitutional guarantees is necessary to make it work. That doesn't mean handing over God-fearing Americans to the North Koreans to be summarily shot but just turning a blind eye to some of your treaty partners' quaint little foibles now and then.
 
This is a different point. It's not the fast track procedure per se that caused the problem but the fact the ISC required findings in A & R's trial to agree with earlier findings in Rudy's, especially the finding that there were multiple killers.

It probably is a different point, but all details may be relevant at an extradition request. Let us suppose an American court takes a closer look than is usual at such a request, and they notice that a co-accused said it was Amanda that committed the offence, and the court asks to see his testimony. The Italians say he did not testify, they are asked why, and they say he was convicted at a fast track trial before Amanda's, which means he now has the right to permanent silence. The American court can say this procedure is new since we signed the treaty. We want him questioned or extradition is refused.

Once again, he should be the star prosecution witness. The loop hole that allows him to make a damning accusation, and be believed should gravely concern the American court.

The question remains, could this happen in England? Or America?
 
Alcohol and Dairy...

The size of the meal is only a minor factor in when it begins to digest (this matters more for the half-time, T1/2, of course). It's the substances that are tougher to break down or which inhibit that process (alcohol, dairy) which really matter according to what those studies say and what their results should be screaming loud and clear! Stop looking at studies designed to be easy to digest, or just conclude that they just say more clearly that Meredith couldn't have been alive at 9:30 PM and go after the English girls!


Grinder's research said:
we prepared the pizza, we have eaten, then
We looked at the pictures of Halloween to your computer and then
We started to watch the movie but we were talking,
R.G. 08/08-2/13/2009 c/KNOX AMANDA MARIE + 1
13
so every now and then stopped the film then we
share; then, in mid-films, we have prepared a
apple crumble, which is a kind of Apple Pie, then
After we ate the apple crumble with ice cream, then
We did chat and then to the nine,
have gone because it was supposed to be just a meeting place for the
the afternoon.


Using the run time of the movie doesn't add anything because they stopped on more than one occasion for eating, at other times to chat and it doesn't appear they watched to the end. We also don't know if Meredith ate at the same time. Somewhere I saw a quote of one of the girls saying Meredith didn't feel well and ate lightly. I thought it was posted here. Nope it was at the link you gave me - Sophie Purton said that Meredith ate only part of her pizza.


Greetings,
I too recall that Meredith ate only some of her pizza. I wonder how many slices or bites of pizza 500 cc of food matter works out to be?

Meredith ate some ice cream, (dairy) and had alcohol in her system too.
No wonder her digestion is causing so much discussion!
RW
 
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Hi Dan O.,
I too have wondered about the final positioning of Meredith's body on her pillow in relation to Rudy's shoe prints.

What if she was still alive when placed on the pillow and the movements were her own?


Starting with the presumption that Meredith is on the pillow when she is raped and Rudy withdraws just in time to leave the semen on the pillow between her legs. That Stefinoni screwed up and failed to test for pre-ejaculate secretions inside Meredith can be accepted accepted as a given. Then Meredith has to move far enough off the pillow for the mid-sole of Rudy's shoe to land on this fresh stain but not before it has had a chance toddy and soak into the fabric enough so it doesn't smear. Rudy then steps in Meredith's blood and creates a sequence of several more footprints on the pillow before Meredith is moved back to exactly the same position on that pillow.

It's this required coincidence that for me destroys the value of the position of the original stain in saying that Meredith was raped. Do people believe that the stain would have the same evidentiary value if it were found instead on a different part of the pillow or even on some other object like the chair?
 
That looks like a subtly different point to extradition because there was no quid pro quo. The alternative to overseas US military personnel being tried under a special jurisdiction would simply have been that they be tried locally by the Brits (in this case) which would just be expensive for the latter and might require intrusive and unwanted access to US bases to investigate.

The alternative to putting extradition in place is that folks can commit crimes in your country and then run away to Italy (say) and thereby get off scot free. Over time, that is capable of being seriously corrosive to social order so some relaxation of strict constitutional guarantees is necessary to make it work. That doesn't mean handing over God-fearing Americans to the North Koreans to be summarily shot but just turning a blind eye to some of your treaty partners' quaint little foibles now and then.

Speaking of... there is this from a "white paper" discussing the history of internatonal extradition from a U.S. perspective.....

An international extradition
treaty obligates the host country to surrender to a requesting country a person charged with or
convicted of an offense in that country. The willingness of countries to accept limitations on their
state sovereignty stems from four purposes which provide the theoretical foundation for
international extradition: (1) to obtain reciprocal return of fugitive offenders; (2) to facilitate the punishment of wrongful conduct, and thereby promote justice; (3) to avoid harboring within their borders those who may commit offenses similar to those which they are accused of committing in another jurisdiction; and (4) to avoid international tensions caused by one country's refusal to
return a particularly sought-after accused offender.

The white paper suggests that many of the constitutional guarantees available regularly to Americans might not be applicable in the "court process", even if that court is in the USA presiding over the extradition of a US citizen. Things like "the right to be faced with your accuser" might not apply practically speaking.... in the sense that the US does not need to have a full trial, only have a trial resembling a preliminary hearing, to establish probable cause.

Then again, the rulings even of the US Supreme Court to facilitate easy extradition does not seem, acc. to the white paper, to have had totall effect.... "It has been the unfortunate practice of nations however, to act under preconceived notions of sovereignty to evade existing extradition treaties under which foreign nationals could have been properly extradited."

I believe that this is a reflection that extradition is in fact mainly a political process, quite apart from the simple legal mechanism which a treaty puts into place. The white paper also talks about the many things that can happen between nations even when treaties do not exist.
 
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