Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[RWVBWL]

Hi Dan O.,
Thanks for the replies!

Anyways,
here's a link with photographs which anyone curious about the knife tip hand cuts should view, and Meredith's left, upraised arm and hand also. Plus there are photo's of some of the bruising. From Old Perugia Shock:
http://web.archive.org/web/20110504...logspot.com/2008/10/pointing-at-murderer.html

Regarding her left, upraised hand, this is the same one that I've posted a photo of holding that possible, but missing, blonde hair. Look at the photo, it is not very bloody, just her index finger, as B. Nadeau wrote, that I quoted from the other day, it looks as if Meredith touched her wound maybe once? Her hand is not very bloody, I feel, from after viewing the neck wound photo again...

Here's what Sfarzo wrote about Meredith's arms and hands:
-Since there's blood on her left hand (picture above) and almost none on her right hand, we have to assume that her left hand was close to her neck when she was hit.
Another possibility is that someone was keeping her arms behind her back while someone else stabbed her. Right after the stab Meredith managed to free her left hand and brought it to the wound, while her right arm was still constrained behind her. In this way the one who was holding her arm sustained her until she fell down.

The photo's of the bruises have always made me wonder, especially since Meredith very likely died soon after the attack, if they were made previously by her boyfriend Giacomo before he left town on the holiday weekend. I've heard of lividity before, could be, hopefully RandyN can chime in on this...


The 2 knife blade tip cut photo could be, as you said, from the cat. Or a sharp knife tip, have a look again at the link. Where's the blood on Meredith's right hand though?
Thoughts?
RW

 

[Sonia]

How does Rudy accomplish that restraint with one arm out of action holding the knife? Once blood is drawn Meredith would be fighting for her life so there would definitely be defensive wounds, objects thrown across the room and Meredith would be facing her attacker.

For Dan O. and RWVBWL: Please consider that, after Rudy had overpowered Meredith and positioned himself behind her, all it would take for him to control her in that position would be a tight grasp of her long hair in his fist. By grabbing her hair close to the scalp with one hand, he could control her head or pull her head back, exposing her neck. The other hand would be free to wield the knife.

In fact, a clump of hair was torn from Meredith's scalp, roots and all, and ended up on the floor in all the blood mess.

I don't think men, many of whom wear their hair short their entire life, appreciate how very painful and immobilizing it is for a long-haired woman to have her hair grabbed in a fight. You can struggle a bit, and some hair can be torn out, but most will remain in the hand of the aggressor and prevent large self-defense movements. If Meredith also had her hands trapped by her sides by pulled-down clothing or placed down on the floor to hold herself up, her immobilization by the man behind her would have been complete.

Edited to add: Why does the blood on Meredith's index finger have to come from touching her wound? There was blood all over the floor and she was forced down onto the floor. There was plenty of blood splashed down there on the floor where Meredith's finger could have touched it.

 

[RWVBWL]

Excellent points Sonia,
most likely very true...

 

[RWVBWL]

Hi Kaosium,
From an Old Perugia Shock post on Feb. 15, 2008, here's why Dr. Lalli was fired:
He just got fired. He's not that busy any more. I thought I wouldn't be disturbing him, but still he refused to talk.
Luca --as soon as he delivered his report Wednesday -- got the goodbye from Luciano. A multi-year marriage ends under the cameras. All the happy days spent together, all those sweet causes of death, all those inviting corpses, forgiven. And for what? For a stupid interview.
Actually he had been talking quite a lot to media in the past few days. Five-seven sentences in all, that's a lot for Mr Close-mouthed Giuliano Mignini. That's too much.
The call I had this morning with Dr. Lalli should probably save us from elaborating strange theories about why he got sacked. The reason of it is exactly that. He talked about the case, which is against the law and he was fired for it. And not just the same old sentences stolen by the newspapers. This time he talked to Studio Aperto broadcast. Three sentences over the phone, which were recorded. And that was trouble. A sentence reported in a newspaper is one thing. Your own voice, which everyone can hear on TV, is another.

 

[RandyN]

For Dan O. and RWVBWL: Please consider that, after Rudy had overpowered Meredith and positioned himself behind her, all it would take for him to control her in that position would be a tight grasp of her long hair in his fist. By grabbing her hair close to the scalp with one hand, he could control her head or pull her head back, exposing her neck. The other hand would be free to wield the knife.

In fact, a clump of hair was torn from Meredith's scalp, roots and all, and ended up on the floor in all the blood mess.

I don't think men, many of whom wear their hair short their entire life, appreciate how very painful and immobilizing it is for a long-haired woman to have her hair grabbed in a fight. You can struggle a bit, and some hair can be torn out, but most will remain in the hand of the aggressor and prevent large self-defense movements. If Meredith also had her hands trapped by her sides by clothing or placed down on the floor to hold herself up, her immobilization by the man behind her would have been complete.

Exactly!

I could never understand the argument about control during a fight of a rather tiny girl by an athletic young man. A hand full of hair and he can jerk her around at will. In fact I think this is exactly what he did near the bed...she was likely trying to climb the walls to escape this idiot and all he does is grab her by the hair and yank her backwards into the center of the room. BANG! she hits to floor backward and bruises both elbows in the process. He could have easily straddled her at that point ...pinning her under him with a knee on each arm...she is pinned...he still holds the knife. He could have easily cut her throat while facing her from this position...there is simply no way to know.

The bruises under her chin came earlier in the conflict possibly. But no doubt the clumps of hair are not something which can be ignored. It is the important clue that explains the whole control argument.

The Channel 5 presentation on this part was unrealistic. Put a 110 lb girl who is surprised by a muscular man half again that weight and she has little chance...an n'th degree black belt maybe...but this want not the movies...and MK was no Bruce Lee. She never had a chance.

 

[anglolawyer]

Diocletus,

Did the CSC really say that? I went looking for it, but I found this passage instead: "In Sollecito’s home a kitchen knife was found that was different from those supplied in the house on Via Garibaldi that he occupied, which appeared especially clean; on the handle of this knife, raised at the part of the handle where the blade begins, there was found a biological trace (track A) attributable to Knox: the place where the trace was found suggested that the knife had not been used in a horizontal direction, but at a certain angle, which suggested an act of slipping of the hand holding the knife in order to strike rather than to cut." (p. 8, highlighting mine)

This is the only case in which I can recall someone (Stefanoni made this argument originally IIUC) making such a detailed inference based the exact location of DNA. I think it is remarkable that Rudy's cuts don't count, but the location of the DNA does. Given the fact that DNA cannot be dated and the fact that Knox could have put her DNA onto the knife in any number of ways after the crime (whether she were guilty or not), this inference is astonishing. They have a superabundance of chutzpah to chide Hellman for lapses in logic.
ETA
"in light of the informative fact that three friends of Rudie (sic), that he was in touch with the day after the murder, excluded the presence of wounds on the hands of the aforementioned..." (p. 54)

That's interesting. Who were these guys and at which trial did they testify? I bet it turns out that they just didn't notice any cuts rather than that they each subjected Rudy to a whole-body forensic exam. I mean, if I don't want you to see cuts on the inner side of my fingers I can easily manage that unless you are really determined (why?) to locate them.

 

[RWVBWL]

So, Rudy didn't have cuts on his hand due to the attack . . . even though he said he did. LOL.

Hi Diocletus,
You've seen this recreation and comparison before, haven't you?


I'd think that if the cuts on Rudy's were shallow, they might not have bleed much.

Also, when out and about, hangin' with the boyz, most of us nowadays don't shake hands when we greet, just bump knuckles, like I did a short while ago when I bailed my brother in law's pad. (My sis is married to a younger guy, cool dude!)

That comparison photo above looks kinda convincing that it was knife related, not broken window related.
Thoughts?

 

[anglolawyer]

One might to look at the Michelle Moore-Bosko crime scene
http://www.norfolkfour.com/images/uploads/pdf_files/Larry_McCann_Report.PDF

That's an interesting link and why I think this stuff is for the experts. I found this interesting:

ETA deleted for screwing up the page.

 

[RWVBWL]

Guede's fingers...

If Rudy had a not so bloody hand he would have used that to open the bedroom door. Both of Rudy's hands must have been bloody and there was nobody else in that room that could open the door for him.

Could be left if that short finger on the left is the little finger. But by it's shape and the geometry with the other fingers it could be the thumb folded under the first finger. If we had a full photo of Rudy's hand we could try to match it.

Rudy admits that he tried to write on the wall. But he could also have seen this print in the news since is was directly visible through the open patio doors in the early morning hours of November 3 and later nights. He tried to explain it but didn't really know how it was made. That they didn't get Rudy's profile from that print, especially the sample taken from the lower part in December is a mystery.
I just cannot see a scenario in which Meredith is able to make that print that fits with all the other evidence. It requires the knife to be out before Meredith is restrained. How does Rudy accomplish that restraint with one arm out of action holding the knife? Once blood is drawn Meredith would be fighting for her life so there would definitely be defensive wounds, objects thrown across the room and Meredith would be facing her attacker.

Greetings Dan O. and Anode,
Thanks for taking the time look at those pix and posting back.

I was looking for photo's of Rudy hands earlier, heck that was how I found a pic of Guede cookin'. Didn't someone cook up a storm at Mandu-Diaz's apartment the night she had her flat ripped off, that gold watch stolen, her cat killed when the place caught afire? Hmmmm...

So let me get this straight:
The investigators were not able to determine who left the bloody finger imprints on the wall above Meredith's bed?!?What the heck?

Are they Guede's? Or from someone else?


Here's the best I could find of Rudy's left hand:


He's got long thumbs:



His index, pointy finger is as long or a tad bit longer, than his ring finger,
my own is shorter...


The bloody wall finger imprints:
From a right hand or left hand?
Guede, Kercher, someone else?

 

[Desert Fox]

That's an interesting link and why I think this stuff is for the experts. I found this interesting:

ETA deleted for screwing up the page.

Most of the stuff is pretty understandable generally in my opinion.
I honestly think that with the murder of Meredeth, we will never know exactly where Ruby was in relation to her and exactly what he did and I am not sure that is gainful for either side to speculate. It is a case though that a single male was able to control a smaller female - I think Meredeth might have been in better "shape" because 1.67 meters and 50 kgs I am pretty sure is underweight.

 

[anglolawyer]

RWBVWL

Whose fingers made the blood smears on the side of the wardrobe? That has to be Meredith doesn't it?

 

[Kaosium]

You have no idea about this and neither do any of us. Did you read the stuff from the SA trial?

I read something about it, someone said it was controversial and inexact? Yeah, most of the time this would be essentially worthless, had Meredith eaten (her dinner) just before 9 PM or within an hour or so of that then this would be meaningless. It would tell us almost nothing. It is only because we know Meredith started eating that meal well before 8 PM and she had 500 cc of stuff in her stomach and nothing in her duodenum with reports of what she'd eaten being compatible with her having 500 cc in her stomach as a result and some of it even identifiable.

She was waaaaay late in starting if, IF, her duodenum really was empty and nothing had slipped lower and she had eaten at 6:30 or before and she was healthy and her drinking hadn't impacted the digestion either from alcohol in her system or from the hangover.

The basic argument that we will accept Lalli, we accept the dinner time and therefore she just must have been on the verge and couldn't have lived another 40 minutes isn't by any means a sure thing.

I agree, this is not a precise business. That chart of LJ's (originally) included massive error bars taking that into account. The value of it is in illustrating just how dramatic the difference is for the people who think that once you get to the high numbers (over 6'2", over 100 years, more than 2.5 hours without passing anything to the duodenum) that everything is more or less equally probable. It's not, once you pass the median as you keep going to the right (more time) there's always a lesser number of people in every study ever posted, no matter what the median was. Since this one (highly likely) to be skewed to the right (because of outliers) then the percentages wouldn't be quite as dramatic, but it's still valuable for hammering this point home that there is a significant difference between 2.0 and 2.5 hours, for 2.5 and 3.0 hours etc. It's not 'well that doesn't matter much because we know we're at the far right (more time) and that Meredith was unusual.'

If it is such a slam dunk then by now the defense must realize it and have experts lining up to sign the document.

Our conversation is absolute proof that wouldn't do a damn bit of good.

Think about this way: if they ate at 6 everyone buys that nothing passed for 3 hours. No one is screaming (except me ) that something is wrong with the picture but if she ate at 6:30 that same 3 hours and 5 minutes puts the time at 9:35 or if they ate at 6:40 then it would be 9:45.

It's not an absolute, it cannot be, however the lesser times are going to be more likely than the higher times. I used a three hour cutoff to simplify things, but of course there's still a chance. It's just significantly less than 2.5 hours and significantly more than 3.5 hours and that last figure exceeds the longest (T-lag) time in any study ever posted in these threads or that I was able to find looking on my own.

At least one of the girls said 5:30 so are you prepared to accept 3 hours and 35 minutes in that case?

All that means is either the 5:30 figure is wrong or for it to be possible that Raffaele and Amanda were there when she was stabbed then after four hours Meredith still had 500 cc in her stomach and nothing in her duodenum which means her lagtime to start digestion would have been 40 minutes higher than anyone in any study that has been posted.

If we could be certain that she started eating at 5:30 then her being stabbed at 9:01 becomes as likely as it could be. But of course we cannot be certain of that and we have a number of reasons to think it's not true, one huge one being that no one has ever found an example of someone healthy having gone 3.5 hours without passing something.

Why doesn't someone produce a study of the emptying into the duodenum start times that is for a normal meal and not a test meal in a clinic. My guess is that it doesn't exist. What is the longest time someone went without emptying at all after eating a pizza?

Why do you think pizza would be wildly different than anything in any of those test meals?

When put together with other evidence it certainly adds to the probability of death before 9:45 or 9:55 and even adds to the probability of Meredith being killed shortly after arriving home, but with our knowledge of the science or the facts we can't say it had to have happened withing minutes (unless that could mean 50 minutes).

Of course you can't. If you've gotten the idea that I think it could be predicted with certainty to within minutes then that is mistaken. What I did do for a while is use 3 hours as an arbitrary cut off for a reasonable probability, the entire time noting there was an outlier in one study of 200 minutes so it couldn't be absolute.

I would love to have a group of gastriologists write a statement for the court to be included in the appeal stating that she had to be dead by 9:15.

I would love it if they just said that the possibility of Meredith having gone over three hours without passing anything to her duodenum is so remote it's not worth considering and that the likeliest figure is as early as it's possible for it to happened.

That's all I'm saying, Grinder. With illustrations of the fact that that there is a significant difference between 2.5 hours and anything longer.

 

[Kaosium]

Grinder could be right. There is no way to know exactly what the beginning volume in the stomach was. Perhaps it was 600 cc and 100cc passed beyond the duodenum prior to her death.

Possibly, but there's reason to think that didn't happen. Her duodenum was empty and the prosecution had the tapes of the autopsy. What they did was have Ronchi (IIRC) say it was possible that Lalli didn't properly tie off the duodenum or however they put it, meaning there was something there but it slipped out. However, had that happened then instead of Ronchi speculating that as a possibility they would have had him show the tapes and point out where that happened.

Another possibility I've read is that in moving the body something slipped out, so there was something there, (so she had started to pass material) but Lalli didn't find anything because of that. I'm certain you know more about the possibility of that than I do. However it doesn't change the basic argument. Even if she'd started passing something the fact she still had 500 cc's in her stomach suggests she must have started fairly recently and obviously hadn't completed.

This is a probability argument based on the data of every study even done on gastric emptying. It's that half hour between when Meredith got home at 9:00 PM and the earliest it was possible for Raffaele and Amanda to be at the cottage, 9:30, that really matters (now--before they just had to show how silly the idea it was more than 5 hours). That half hour will always exist and in every single trial ever done on T(lag) where T(lag) is greater than average (meaning you're on the right side of the curve) that half hour makes a significant difference. There's always more people who went 1.5 than 2.0 hours. Always more who went 2.0 than 2.5 etc.

So lets say she did have 100 cc in her duodenum that slipped out, it would still mean her digestion stopped when she had 500 cc still in her stomach so it was definitely interrupted. Digestion from that point is (more or less) linear from that point forward, right? So it doesn't actually change the likelihood much. Because we know she had gone so long and was definitely in the group of people who were taking longer than average, it still is much more likely she was at the point of 100 cc having been passed at 9:00 PM than she reached that point at 9:30 PM.

Put very simply, since we know she was taking longer than usual the fact she had 500 cc in her stomach means she's much more likely to have had her digestion stopped a half hour earlier than later. At least that's what all the studies say regardless of what the median for T(lag) is. Because of the generally linear nature of digestion from that point forward it just changes it from the basic T (lag) argument to T (lag) + 100 cc in the duodenum, and that's still much more likely to have been a half hour earlier than later.

Once you're longer than the median that half hour always matters and the difference is always significant. At least that's what the studies say.

 

[Kaosium]

Hi Kaosium,
From an Old Perugia Shock post on Feb. 15, 2008, here's why Dr. Lalli was fired:
He just got fired. He's not that busy any more. I thought I wouldn't be disturbing him, but still he refused to talk.
Luca --as soon as he delivered his report Wednesday -- got the goodbye from Luciano. A multi-year marriage ends under the cameras. All the happy days spent together, all those sweet causes of death, all those inviting corpses, forgiven. And for what? For a stupid interview.
Actually he had been talking quite a lot to media in the past few days. Five-seven sentences in all, that's a lot for Mr Close-mouthed Giuliano Mignini. That's too much.
The call I had this morning with Dr. Lalli should probably save us from elaborating strange theories about why he got sacked. The reason of it is exactly that. He talked about the case, which is against the law and he was fired for it. And not just the same old sentences stolen by the newspapers. This time he talked to Studio Aperto broadcast. Three sentences over the phone, which were recorded. And that was trouble. A sentence reported in a newspaper is one thing. Your own voice, which everyone can hear on TV, is another.

Thanks! Do you remember what he said? I can't recall what the issue was.

 

[Samson]

I read something about it, someone said it was controversial and inexact? Yeah, most of the time this would be essentially worthless, had Meredith eaten (her dinner) just before 9 PM or within an hour or so of that then this would be meaningless. It would tell us almost nothing. It is only because we know Meredith started eating that meal well before 8 PM and she had 500 cc of stuff in her stomach and nothing in her duodenum with reports of what she'd eaten being compatible with her having 500 cc in her stomach as a result and some of it even identifiable.



I agree, this is not a precise business. That chart of LJ's (originally) included massive error bars taking that into account. The value of it is in illustrating just how dramatic the difference is for the people who think that once you get to the high numbers (over 6'2", over 100 years, more than 2.5 hours without passing anything to the duodenum) that everything is more or less equally probable. It's not, once you pass the median as you keep going to the right (more time) there's always a lesser number of people in every study ever posted, no matter what the median was. Since this one (highly likely) to be skewed to the right (because of outliers) then the percentages wouldn't be quite as dramatic, but it's still valuable for hammering this point home that there is a significant difference between 2.0 and 2.5 hours, for 2.5 and 3.0 hours etc. It's not 'well that doesn't matter much because we know we're at the far right (more time) and that Meredith was unusual.'



Our conversation is absolute proof that wouldn't do a damn bit of good.



It's not an absolute, it cannot be, however the lesser times are going to be more likely than the higher times. I used a three hour cutoff to simplify things, but of course there's still a chance. It's just significantly less than 2.5 hours and significantly more than 3.5 hours and that last figure exceeds the longest (T-lag) time in any study ever posted in these threads or that I was able to find looking on my own.



All that means is either the 5:30 figure is wrong or for it to be possible that Raffaele and Amanda were there when she was stabbed then after four hours Meredith still had 500 cc in her stomach and nothing in her duodenum which means her lagtime to start digestion would have been 40 minutes higher than anyone in any study that has been posted.

If we could be certain that she started eating at 5:30 then her being stabbed at 9:01 becomes as likely as it could be. But of course we cannot be certain of that and we have a number of reasons to think it's not true, one huge one being that no one has ever found an example of someone healthy having gone 3.5 hours without passing something.



Why do you think pizza would be wildly different than anything in any of those test meals?



Of course you can't. If you've gotten the idea that I think it could be predicted with certainty to within minutes then that is mistaken. What I did do for a while is use 3 hours as an arbitrary cut off for a reasonable probability, the entire time noting there was an outlier in one study of 200 minutes so it couldn't be absolute.



I would love it if they just said that the possibility of Meredith having gone over three hours without passing anything to her duodenum is so remote it's not worth considering and that the likeliest figure is as early as it's possible for it to happened.

That's all I'm saying, Grinder. With illustrations of the fact that that there is a significant difference between 2.5 hours and anything longer.

I believe it is sensible to propose that murder of Meredith 101 will include the following findings of fact soon.
1. Rudy Guede was in her house when she arrived home.
2. She was almost immediately under extreme stress that
3. Meant her digestive processes ceased forthwith.
Her precise time of death becomes less important. To all intents and purposes her physiology was in hiatus.

The next part in the proof is to reverse the staged break in meme. This is no less difficult, as Hendry has proved the converse.
But the physiology places a pre 9 pm intrusion leading to stress or death as axiomatic. IMO.

 

[Samson]

Hi Kaosium,
From an Old Perugia Shock post on Feb. 15, 2008, here's why Dr. Lalli was fired:
He just got fired. He's not that busy any more. I thought I wouldn't be disturbing him, but still he refused to talk.
Luca --as soon as he delivered his report Wednesday -- got the goodbye from Luciano. A multi-year marriage ends under the cameras. All the happy days spent together, all those sweet causes of death, all those inviting corpses, forgiven. And for what? For a stupid interview.
Actually he had been talking quite a lot to media in the past few days. Five-seven sentences in all, that's a lot for Mr Close-mouthed Giuliano Mignini. That's too much.
The call I had this morning with Dr. Lalli should probably save us from elaborating strange theories about why he got sacked. The reason of it is exactly that. He talked about the case, which is against the law and he was fired for it. And not just the same old sentences stolen by the newspapers. This time he talked to Studio Aperto broadcast. Three sentences over the phone, which were recorded. And that was trouble. A sentence reported in a newspaper is one thing. Your own voice, which everyone can hear on TV, is another.

FYI RWLBWV,

A house for sale.

http://translate.google.com/transla...ery/raffaele+sollecito/sort/latest&edit-text=

Your idea that I indepentently wished for. Future proofing.

ETA the link is faulty, but says Raffaele visited the villa at no 7 today.

 

[Kaosium]

I believe it is sensible to propose that murder of Meredith 101 will include the following findings of fact soon.
1. Rudy Guede was in her house when she arrived home.
2. She was almost immediately under extreme stress that
3. Meant her digestive processes ceased forthwith.
Her precise time of death becomes less important. To all intents and purposes her physiology was in hiatus.

The next part in the proof is to reverse the staged break in meme. This is no less difficult, as Hendry has proved the converse.
But the physiology places a pre 9 pm intrusion leading to stress or death as axiomatic. IMO.

I disagree with the last. I think she returned home at 9:00 or so. What is more likely (than her being murdered before 9:00 PM) is what has been proposed by Randy N, that she'd passed 100 cc or so and it got 'lost.' In other words she actually started passing to her duodenum at say 8:00 but for whatever reason it wasn't in her duodenum because it slipped out.

However as I pointed out it doesn't make that much difference. T (lag) + having passed 100 cc (or whatever) at 9:00 is far more likely than at 9:30. It doesn't change the argument that much because the latter is essentially a linear process. As a matter of fact all it does it move it to the left (less time elapsed) and thus to a steeper part of the curve if it's skewed to the right as it almost certainly is.

Incidentally I realize if you go out looking at T(lag) studies right now a number come up on the first few pages showing results with medians around 30 minutes or so. There's many more studies with longer times which take better account of the conditions relevant to this case, especially including the one I've been posting about and Grinder just quoted part of the abstract of with a median of about 80 minutes with the outlier of 200 minutes. That was published in a peer review journal as well, it's more reliable, not less than some of the others.

 

[Samson]

I disagree with the last. I think she returned home at 9:00 or so. What is more likely is what has been proposed by Randy N, that she'd passed 100 cc or so and it got 'lost.' In other words she actually started passing to her duodenum at say 8:00 but for whatever reason it wasn't in her duodenum because it slipped out.

However as I pointed out it doesn't make that much difference. T (lag) + having passed 100 cc (or whatever) at 9:00 is far more likely than at 9:30. It doesn't change the argument that much because the latter is essentially a linear process. As a matter of fact all it does it move it to the left (less time elapsed) and thus to a steeper part of the curve if it's skewed to the right as it almost certainly is.

Incidentally I realize if you go out looking at T(lag) studies right now a number come up on the first few pages showing results with medians around 30 minutes or so. There's many more studies with longer times which take better account of the conditions relevant to this case, especially including the one I've been posting about and Grinder just quoted part of the abstract of with a median of about 80 minutes with the outlier of 200 minutes. That was published in a peer review journal as well, it's more reliable, not less than some of the others.

Maybe I was not clear, if flexibility on TOD is contingent on making the most important evidential component being subject to variability prescribed by physiological stress, then let the time of entry to her home be fixed, and conclusions flowing from this, accord to the certainty that Rudy was present.

I know I have not made myself clear, but best endeavours.

 

[Kaosium]

I think we've been mocking this exact dumb argument for literally years now.

An analogous argument would be "We know the defendant was unusually tall, and we know lots of different things affect people's height which makes everything VERY CONFUSING! Therefore the defendant could perfectly well have been three and a half metres tall. We can't rule it out!"

The problem is that no matter how many real or imagined confounding factors you drag in, what will never change is that the earliest part of the post-9pm period will always be by far the likeliest time of death, and the later you push back the time the less likely it will get. You can't get around that with any number of imagined stomach problems which none of her friends and family ever heard about, imagined drinks her friends say she never had or for that matter anything else. You are trying to flatten out a bell curve and it just can't be done.

That's the sad part, some don't realize that nothing will change the fact it's more likely Meredith was killed earlier than later and that the difference is significant. That half hour will always exist and will always be significant.

 

[Kaosium]

Maybe I was not clear, if flexibility on TOD is contingent on making the most important evidential component being subject to variability prescribed by physiological stress, then let the time of entry to her home be fixed, and conclusions flowing from this, accord to the certainty that Rudy was present.

I know I have not made myself clear, but best endeavours.

If you were not clear, it might be because I don't think I've been lately and you must have caught it from me!

Or (more likely) 'the fault is no doubt mine' for failing to comprehend your statement.

The prosecution and their online fanclub cannot accord that certainty. It removes the reasonable possibility that Raffaele and Amanda were involved and that's all that matters to them.