Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Diocletus]

Yup, he did:



Pretty dumb. isn't it obvious that the cuts are from stabbing Kercher in the neck? I'll be that's what the German cops thought.

Oh, here are the legal scholar Micheli's thoughts on this (per TJMK):

The judge then took issue with Rudy’s description of events following the stabbing of Meredith. Rudy claimed that when he emerged from the bathroom he discovered a man with a knife standing over Meredith. In the resultant scuffle he suffered cut wounds to his hand. armed himself with chair to protect himself. before the attacker fled when he fell over because his trousers came down around his ankles. Micheli said that those who saw Rudy later that night didn’t notice any wounds to Rudy’s hands although some cuts were photographed by the police when he was later arrested in Germany.

So, Rudy didn't have cuts on his hand due to the attack . . . even though he said he did. LOL.

 

[Kaosium]

Attempting any precision from the age analogy is fraught with issues but here goes:

The chance of living to 105 when born (group eating meal) is .074%. Almost impossible just like not starting to empty in 2.5 or 3 hours. However if one lives to 100 the chance of making it to 105 is 14.6%.

You didn't notice the same thing in LJ's chart? Or the height analogy I used?


Look again at what happens to the percentages when everything left of 9:00 is eliminated or you remove the possibility they're shorter than 6'2". What you're looking for is there. Just as the chance of living to 105 goes from .074% at birth to 14.6% if you make it to 100, the chance of her having died between 9:00 and 9:20 goes from 1.9% to 95% simply by the fact we know she was alive at 9:00. The same factor increases the probability she died between 9:20-10:00 PM from 0.09% to 4.5% based on the results of that study which had a normal distribution (unskewed bell curve).

The linked "analysis" seems to be based purely on the bell curve and not the science of digestion but even so it says much of what I've been saying

No, it says the opposite. If you're talking about the caveat, then the answer to that is to look for more studies and greater samples. This has been done, but please, feel free to look for more. The best of course are the ones which take into account the starch from the pizza, are for a small to moderate meal and include alcohol. They all have one thing in common: no or almost no data after 3.0 hours, not a single subject starting emptying that late.

As for being based on the bell curve...hmmm...lemme put it this way: have you ever wondered why every one of those studies posted includes a curve and notes whether it's a normal distribution or skewed (for these studies) to the right? Why they all start going up and then start going down and always hit the bottom? There's really no zigging, or zagging, (pretty much) no frills no mess, but sometimes a 'tail' (always to the right)?

Those curves are based on the actual data, it's the data that creates the curve and just so happens to look like a bell curve, often with a tail to the right. Something like this.

If you're familiar with these, you can look at the figures for T1-4 (based off the actual data) and know what the curve is going to look like, much like you could look at the figures for a bar graph with 4 numbers such as 8-7-6-5 and know it will look like, (steps going down to the right). Look at that one I linked, which perhaps I should have done before when saying things like being on the 'far right' of the curve, and how you should [/i] know[/i] that anything to the left of the curve is going to be a higher probability. That's what the data says, those are just physical representations that illustrate what happens to the probability, often they look very similar to each other, even for wildly different subjects. A graph of the probability of rolling each number on a set of dice (2-12) looks very much like a graph of the heights of people in the US, a bell curve.

There's a reason for that, and it's not magic, proof of God or cheating, but it is one of the Secrets of the Universe and if I told you then you'd have to shoot me. That might not be fun for me and you could get in trouble, so we can't have that!

the linked "analysis"

a) Prob she died before 9pm = 0%
b) Prob she died between 9pm and 9.20pm = 95%
c) Prob she died between 9.20pm and 10pm = 4.5%
d) Prob she died later than 10pm = 0.5%

Of course, the caveat to all of this is that the bell curve isn't exceptionally precisely defined at such a far end of the curve. This of course is why I originally introduced a +/- 25% error to those numbers. However, even when such a large error factor is applied, it's patently clear that the overwhelming likelihood is that Meredith died well before 10pm, and that it's virtually impossible that she died later than 11pm (or at the very least was violently attacked any later than 11pm).​

I've said 5% but 9:30 instead of 9:20 IIRC but really since we don't know when or how much she ate (I've looked and so far nothing close to a measure of how many pieces of pizza or how much apple crisp and ice cream) the ten minutes has no significance.

I thought it would be recognized that by using 9:20 that analysis exceeded your parameters. The probabilities for 9:00 to 9:30 have to be higher than 9:00-9:20, which reduces the probability Amanda and Raffaele could possibly be involved.

As I also have said all along the death was clearly well before the original TOD of 11:30.

I have said that I believe that the phone activity shows that the TOD was no later than 9:45 or 9:55.

This is something that strongly corroborates that, and shows that the earlier it was the more likely.

At what point did Lalli change? What did he change? Was this before or after he was removed from the case?

He changed his estimate from 3-4 hours to 2-3 hours. The first I believe was in his report, the second happened during the trial. I think both were after he'd been removed from the case, he did his work but hadn't filed his report until after Mignini cashiered him. I wish I remember exactly why that was.

Introna in his testimony has TOD between 21:30 and 22:30 pm p)

LOL! Finally I get it! (I think)--You said something like that before and I couldn't figure out what you meant. I gather now you mean that military time doesn't need a 'PM' and some little bunny screwed the pooch on that one? Sorry, my mind automatically translates military time to normal time, I didn't even notice.

Read the first line or so from what you posted to me the other day.

Here the defense asks about 21:00:

DEFENSE – so that he may be regarded as the time of death at around 21.00 hours taking account of evidence that there have been offers, i.e. that the beginning of the meal would be for someone around 17.30?

Consultant-(IDREES) – Some by a reasoning that does not consider the extreme highest but the extremes that you consider the Medes and also willing to consider the hours we have more 18.30 18.30 three hours are emptying at 21.30 21.30 up is due to begin the attack.
​

I can't find where he has it before 21:30.

I posted it to you, citing Massei! If you don't find it in his testimony, look for his report if it's available. The British girls also had interviews with Mignini that aren't in their testimony as well, though some of it is represented in Massei.


Regarding the British girls and my 'damning with faint praise' comment regarding them being more likely to be involved than Amanda and Raffaele, I didn't say anything about Meredith being murdered before she got back to the cottage, did I?

Now, how exactly do you know it was at 9:00 PM?

Lemme go over their testimony with my Kook Mignini hat on and I'll find all sorts of 'inconsistencies.' Even you mentioned the testimony was 'vague' and they didn't know some things you expect they'd know--to some that's evidence they're lying therefore they must be guilty! The 'only' reason they couldn't know would be because it never happened and they're covering for their nefarious 'involvement' in Meredith's murder! They were the last people who saw her alive (outside Rudy--their pimp p) ) and what did they do when they got back to Britain? Started spreading malicious (but entirely irrelevant) gossip to defame Amanda--trying to implicate an innocent woman! Obviously they must be involved!

Then I put on my Stefanoni hat: Lemme at those samples taken from the cottage, especially Meredith's clothes, and allow me to use the same parameters for the bra clasp and knife. I could take their profiles, look down to the single digit picogram level and use mixed samples with numerous contributors and I'd find their profiles somewhere in those 200 or so samples. After all, Meredith spent the night there, a trace transfer under those conditions is probable if I look hard and long enough.


But that's damning with faint praise, of course, the British girls had nothing to do with the murder, but in a rational world they'd be (slightly) better suspects for those bound and determined to imprison additional people for Rudy's crime.

 

[Diocletus]

Rudy's Cuts

OK, I think I have tracked down the history of Rudy's cuts:

Rudy: I cut my hands fighting with Meredith’s killer.

German cops: Dear Perugia cops: Rudy has cuts on his hands. They look important to us, so we took some pictures . . . here you go.

Profazio: Yeah, I got those German pictures. Not impressed.

Micheli: Rudy is a liar. No one saw bleeding cuts on his hands before he went to Germany.

Massei: Profazio says the cuts were nothing. Introna says they were from using a knife. I know nothing.

Hellman: Rudy cut his hands breaking in.

Supreme Court: Notwithstanding Rudy's specious claim that he cut his hand fighting with the "real" killer, the fact is that no one saw bleeding cuts on Rudy's hands before he went to Germany, and so he wasn't cut. We know this because that's what we said in Rudy’s trial.


LOL. Does anyone know whether there is an ECHR rule against stupidity?

ETA: Borsini:

With regards to the hand injury that the defendant claims to have received in the scuffle with the aggressor, it was confirmed to exist in the photograph taken of his hand by the German police (however, difficult to see); it was however revealed by his friends Crudo and Maly, with whom, according to his version, he met on the same evening as the murder and, according to the statements of those two, on the evening of 2nd November, they had not at all noticed the injury, that should have been fresh and not bandaged.

Huh?

 

[Anode]

Hi all,
Here's a few more pix, and a coupla questions :

Rudy Guede, right handed?
[qimg]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/320x240q90/835/0mrb.jpg[/qimg]


The cuts on Rudy Guede's right hand when busted by German law enforcement:
[qimg]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/835/lv6h.jpg[/qimg]


When I look at Rudy's cut right hand, which I'd speculate was the hand holding the knife as he again and again, if the sole attacker, thrust it into Meredith's neck again and again, I visualize that his left arm and hand was holding Meredith in a strong embrace, right?

So his right hand should have been very bloody, his left hand not so, if at all, right?

Now look at the bloody handprint on Meredith's wall, above her bed:
[qimg]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/835/1f32.jpg[/qimg]


Compare your hand, and Guede's too, to that handprint.
I feel that this bloody handprint is a left hand, do you agree?
And Meredith's left hand was bloody, her right hand hardly at all.

I could see if that bloody wall print was a right hand, sure, it'd probably belong to Guede. But it looks like a bloody left hand.

If so, what was Meredith doing standing up against the wall after being stabbed in her throat numerous times?
Thoughts?

I don't know. That could be the right hand (from left to right) middle-ring-pinky fingers. Although it is weird that the ring finger appears longer than the other two.

It could also be the right hand index-middle-ring with a slight hint of a thumb closed up against the index on the far left of the print.

I just can't tell for sure.

 

[Grinder]

Grinder,

No you fail to understand, this does not prove she died before she arrived home, it just means that less than 1% of people will not have started to empty their stomach by then.

First where is there a study of gastric emptying beginning that shows the breakdown by 1/4 hour of when it starts? Not an Indian study of stomach contents or a tiny meal for analysis but a study of real meals and a measure of when the chyme begins to move.

Frankly I think you just made up the number although it is clear that Meredith was on the very slow end of it if, I say if, Lalli was correct that nothing was in the duodenum or the start of the small intestines AND they didn't let it slip down when moving her.

I think we have some bad data and no matter what system one uses Bayesian or Frequentist or whatever if it's garbage in it's garbage out.

The biggest source of uncertainty is the time of eating. This can also be addressed, ideally we need more information. My understanding is that they made the pizza sat down and watched a movie. This means that they ate during the movie.

Their testimony is available. They are quite unsure of events. They gathered in the late afternoon looked at photos and started the movie. At some point they stopped the movie and pizza was served. I have yet to find any mention of whether or not Meredith started eating then or later. At some later time around 8 maybe they had apple crisp and a variety of ice creams or maybe the slower to digest Gelato.

Part way through the apple pie was ready (45 minutes to cook 15 minutes to cool) probably popped in just before starting to watch the movie. The movie took about 2 hr and MK left about 20.30. So the likelihood is she ate about 18.30 but we could take a probability distribution with a sd of 15 minutes. In turn this gives a probability distribution of the upper limit, with a mid point of 21.00 but a 2sd distribution of 20.30 to 21.30.

The baking time and cooling wasn't mentioned. MK left about 20:45 but so what. GIGO. You are just making stuff up. About the only things we are sure of is that she did eat at the girls' house some time before 20:30 (most likely earlier but we don't have the data) and she had 500 cc of partially digested food in her stomach when she died.

Apologies for those who took my comment about stats being hard to understand personally. I meant explaining to juries. The real way to answer this question is using Bayesian stats and incorporating all the sources of data, the phone calls, the witnesses and the pathology. It should be done for Guede alone and for Guede, Knox, Sollecito.

Bayesian is just as vulnerable to GIGO as any method.

In the vast majority of cases emptying most likely starts within 1/2 an hour and certainly in 2 hours. I agree completely that if she had not started in 3 hours that she was very, very slow. Given what we know it is not possible to say because it was slow (if our facts are vaguely correct) that TOD must have been in just a few minutes at most. There is the drinking to consider. There is the hangover to consider. I wouldn't rule out the PLE missing a stomach ailment.

While I think that the most logical assessment of the timing issues exonerates the kids I don't think that the digestion proves they couldn't have been there.

 

[anglolawyer]

Hi Anglolawyer,
Always a pleasure to read your thoughts around JREF!

With that said,
it's the Massei quotes that this photog posted about that really got my attention, even if, what's the word, they're paraphrased. And as far as photog's go, esh at right behind my old surfshop in "DogTown" reknowned photog and artist John Baldesarri - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Baldessari - still has original studio. Why wouldn't I wanna read of a photogs thoughts? Heck, from what I gather, professional law enforcement officers and Officers of the Italian Courts got this brutal case soooo wrong in their theory and convictions! And like you and I have surely made a few mistakes when posting online about this tragic murder case we discuss, I wonder how wrong could this photog that I quoted, be?


Anyways it was Massei that convicted AK and RS in a group rape and murder...
Rudy Guede, - The Human Octopus?
Interesting write up...


ETA:
I gotta go wash some dishes for awhile at my lil' sisters house before she and her hubby get home,
ya know, to thank 'em for a nice dinner last night!
See ya all next time!
RW

Well, I really like your posts too actually. On the highlighted bit though, I just want to say I think I know my limitations. Large tracts of this case are the province of experts and, while I can hope to follow some of the arguments, I can't claim my own opinion or conclusions carry that much weight. Whether Meredith was attacked by one person or more is the province of experts. The balance of opinion in the trial and elsewhere is that one person could quite feasibly have produced what we see and nothing anyone has suggested, nor any forensic evidence showing the presence of others, leads me to doubt that view.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

A remarkable inference from DNA

Supreme Court: Notwithstanding Rudy's specious claim that he cut his hand fighting with the "real" killer, the fact is that no one saw bleeding cuts on Rudy's hands before he went to Germany, and so he wasn't cut. We know this because that's what we said in Rudy’s trial.

Diocletus,

Did the CSC really say that? I went looking for it, but I found this passage instead: "In Sollecito’s home a kitchen knife was found that was different from those supplied in the house on Via Garibaldi that he occupied, which appeared especially clean; on the handle of this knife, raised at the part of the handle where the blade begins, there was found a biological trace (track A) attributable to Knox: the place where the trace was found suggested that the knife had not been used in a horizontal direction, but at a certain angle, which suggested an act of slipping of the hand holding the knife in order to strike rather than to cut." (p. 8, highlighting mine)

This is the only case in which I can recall someone (Stefanoni made this argument originally IIUC) making such a detailed inference based the exact location of DNA. I think it is remarkable that Rudy's cuts don't count, but the location of the DNA does. Given the fact that DNA cannot be dated and the fact that Knox could have put her DNA onto the knife in any number of ways after the crime (whether she were guilty or not), this inference is astonishing. They have a superabundance of chutzpah to chide Hellman for lapses in logic.
ETA
"in light of the informative fact that three friends of Rudie (sic), that he was in touch with the day after the murder, excluded the presence of wounds on the hands of the aforementioned..." (p. 54)

 

[acbytesla]

Man, this argument drives me crazy. It's pretty clear that Meredith should have started to seen some gastric emptying by the time she arrived home. But there is no evidence of that which means from a digestive perspective Meredith TOD should have been within minutes of arriving home. Sure, it is possible that this could have delayed a few minutes but statistically speaking she was venturing into abnormal digestive rates within a half hour.

But I suppose we will argue this point for a long time.

 

[Desert Fox]

Well, I really like your posts too actually. On the highlighted bit though, I just want to say I think I know my limitations. Large tracts of this case are the province of experts and, while I can hope to follow some of the arguments, I can't claim my own opinion or conclusions carry that much weight. Whether Meredith was attacked by one person or more is the province of experts. The balance of opinion in the trial and elsewhere is that one person could quite feasibly have produced what we see and nothing anyone has suggested, nor any forensic evidence showing the presence of others, leads me to doubt that view.

One might to look at the Michelle Moore-Bosko crime scene
http://www.norfolkfour.com/images/uploads/pdf_files/Larry_McCann_Report.PDF

 

[Samson]

Man, this argument drives me crazy. It's pretty clear that Meredith should have started to seen some gastric emptying by the time she arrived home. But there is no evidence of that which means from a digestive perspective Meredith TOD should have been within minutes of arriving home. Sure, it is possible that this could have delayed a few minutes but statistically speaking she was venturing into abnormal digestive rates within a half hour.

But I suppose we will argue this point for a long time.

I am not clear why it would take a long time to argue the point, and there certainly isn't much time left. If and when Nencini files a report with the two at Raff's place 9 30, the defence could have a media blitz ready to go declaring dramatic new evidence places them at home when the victim was already deceased. The fact the evidence is not new is immaterial. I really don't understand the lethargy in the USA. It seems very straightforward to me, but everyone is used to expressing their ideas and see the show move right along without being noticed.

 

[Grinder]

Man, this argument drives me crazy. It's pretty clear that Meredith should have started to seen some gastric emptying by the time she arrived home. But there is no evidence of that which means from a digestive perspective Meredith TOD should have been within minutes of arriving home. Sure, it is possible that this could have delayed a few minutes but statistically speaking she was venturing into abnormal digestive rates within a half hour.

But I suppose we will argue this point for a long time.

You have no idea about this and neither do any of us. Did you read the stuff from the SA trial?

She was waaaaay late in starting if, IF, her duodenum really was empty and nothing had slipped lower and she had eaten at 6:30 or before and she was healthy and her drinking hadn't impacted the digestion either from alcohol in her system or from the hangover.

The basic argument that we will accept Lalli, we accept the dinner time and therefore she just must have been on the verge and couldn't have lived another 40 minutes isn't by any means a sure thing.

If it is such a slam dunk then by now the defense must realize it and have experts lining up to sign the document.

Think about this way: if they ate at 6 everyone buys that nothing passed for 3 hours. No one is screaming (except me ) that something is wrong with the picture but if she ate at 6:30 that same 3 hours and 5 minutes puts the time at 9:35 or if they ate at 6:40 then it would be 9:45.

At least one of the girls said 5:30 so are you prepared to accept 3 hours and 35 minutes in that case?

Why doesn't someone produce a study of the emptying into the duodenum start times that is for a normal meal and not a test meal in a clinic. My guess is that it doesn't exist. What is the longest time someone went without emptying at all after eating a pizza?

When put together with other evidence it certainly adds to the probability of death before 9:45 or 9:55 and even adds to the probability of Meredith being killed shortly after arriving home, but with our knowledge of the science or the facts we can't say it had to have happened withing minutes (unless that could mean 50 minutes).

I would love to have a group of gastriologists write a statement for the court to be included in the appeal stating that she had to be dead by 9:15.

 

[acbytesla]

You have no idea about this and neither do any of us. Did you read the stuff from the SA trial?

She was waaaaay late in starting if, IF, her duodenum really was empty and nothing had slipped lower and she had eaten at 6:30 or before and she was healthy and her drinking hadn't impacted the digestion either from alcohol in her system or from the hangover.

The basic argument that we will accept Lalli, we accept the dinner time and therefore she just must have been on the verge and couldn't have lived another 40 minutes isn't by any means a sure thing.

If it is such a slam dunk then by now the defense must realize it and have experts lining up to sign the document.

Think about this way: if they ate at 6 everyone buys that nothing passed for 3 hours. No one is screaming (except me ) that something is wrong with the picture but if she ate at 6:30 that same 3 hours and 5 minutes puts the time at 9:35 or if they ate at 6:40 then it would be 9:45.

At least one of the girls said 5:30 so are you prepared to accept 3 hours and 35 minutes in that case?

Why doesn't someone produce a study of the emptying into the duodenum start times that is for a normal meal and not a test meal in a clinic. My guess is that it doesn't exist. What is the longest time someone went without emptying at all after eating a pizza?

When put together with other evidence it certainly adds to the probability of death before 9:45 or 9:55 and even adds to the probability of Meredith being killed shortly after arriving home, but with our knowledge of the science or the facts we can't say it had to have happened withing minutes (unless that could mean 50 minutes).

I would love to have a group of gastriologists write a statement for the court to be included in the appeal stating that she had to be dead by 9:15.

The one thing I do agree with you on is that any way you look at it, Meredith's digestion is on the slow to very slow side and something should have passed into her duodenum by 9:00 PM, but we know that didn't happen. Borrowed time essentially. My guess is that Meredith began her meal from 6:00 PM to 6:45....But of course the variable factor is just when did Meredith eat any of the meal? I think the 5:30 time is impossible and even 6:00 PM is not likely.

 

[Grinder]

The one thing I do agree with you on is that any way you look at it, Meredith's digestion is on the slow to very slow side and something should have passed into her duodenum by 9:00 PM, but we know that didn't happen. Borrowed time essentially. My guess is that Meredith began her meal from 6:00 PM to 6:45....But of course the variable factor is just when did Meredith eat any of the meal? I think the 5:30 time is impossible and even 6:00 PM is not likely.

Tesla on this we agree but why do accept the empty duodenum when the most logical mistake would be that her emptying had begun. The stomach contents indicate that some period of time had passed since eating. We don't know withing minutes how long and we don't know when she started eating.

The assumption s being made here are that the duodenum work was accurate and that she started eating before 7 or 7:30. All the studies we have seen have people beginning to empty withing 2 hours. The clinical trial said that if after 1 hour there was more than 90% of the meal left in the stomach the person was abnormally slow. If after 2 hours there was more than 60% and after 3 hours more than 30% (done from memory) then abnormally slow.

Meredith should have had no more than 50% of her meal left even if she started at 6:30 unless something was wrong with her which changes everything or she didn't eat until 8 or 8:15.

Let's say she was killed before 9:15 and that gives the kids their alibi what did Rudi do for 45 minutes or however long he stayed before the call came in at 10:13 - I'm just curious not trying to make any specific point.

 

[acbytesla]

Tesla on this we agree but why do accept the empty duodenum when the most logical mistake would be that her emptying had begun. The stomach contents indicate that some period of time had passed since eating. We don't know withing minutes how long and we don't know when she started eating.

The assumption s being made here are that the duodenum work was accurate and that she started eating before 7 or 7:30. All the studies we have seen have people beginning to empty withing 2 hours. The clinical trial said that if after 1 hour there was more than 90% of the meal left in the stomach the person was abnormally slow. If after 2 hours there was more than 60% and after 3 hours more than 30% (done from memory) then abnormally slow.

Meredith should have had no more than 50% of her meal left even if she started at 6:30 unless something was wrong with her which changes everything or she didn't eat until 8 or 8:15.

Let's say she was killed before 9:15 and that gives the kids their alibi what did Rudi do for 45 minutes or however long he stayed before the call came in at 10:13 - I'm just curious not trying to make any specific point.

Well then, we might as well as throw out all the scientific evidence in total then Grinder. Average median T-1/2 time is 127 minutes. which is 2 hours 7 minutes. That is the median time. which means right in the middle, so a 6:30 to 7:00 meal and being somewhat slow to digest at 9:00 PM makes sense...but barely....and makes 10:00 PM absurd. Or should we chalk it up that they can't do anything right at all when it comes to forensic testing in Perugia?

 

[Grinder]

Well then, we might as well as throw out all the scientific evidence in total then Grinder. Average median T-1/2 time is 127 minutes. which is 2 hours 7 minutes. That is the median time. which means right in the middle, so a 6:30 to 7:00 meal and being somewhat slow to digest at 9:00 PM makes sense...but barely....and makes 10:00 PM absurd. Or should we chalk it up that they can't do anything right at all when it comes to forensic testing in Perugia?

Think your confusing T(lag) with T(1/2)

The mean +/- SD of half gastric emptying time (T1/2) of a fluid test meal was determined to be 80.5 +/- 22.1 min and for T(lag) to be 40.3 +/- 10.2 min. However, the T1/2 and T(lag) of solid meals did not fit to normal distribution and thus median and percentiles were determined. The median time of T1/2 for solids was 127 min (25-75% percentiles: 112.0-168.3 min) and 81.5 min for T(lag) (25-75% percentiles: 65.5-102.0 min). No significant correlation was found between gastric emptying and age, sex or BMI.​

 

[acbytesla]

Think your confusing T(lag) with T(1/2)

The mean +/- SD of half gastric emptying time (T1/2) of a fluid test meal was determined to be 80.5 +/- 22.1 min and for T(lag) to be 40.3 +/- 10.2 min. However, the T1/2 and T(lag) of solid meals did not fit to normal distribution and thus median and percentiles were determined. The median time of T1/2 for solids was 127 min (25-75% percentiles: 112.0-168.3 min) and 81.5 min for T(lag) (25-75% percentiles: 65.5-102.0 min). No significant correlation was found between gastric emptying and age, sex or BMI.​

T Lag is the beginning of the emptying...agreed. even so this is the median average.. It also is from a very light meal eggs and bread essentially. So according to T-LAG, 25 to 75 percent fell between 65 minutes and 102 minutes. 25 percent fell outside that range. But are we to assume that Lalli, didn't tie the stomach off? He insists that he did.

 

[Dan O.]

Hi Dan O.,
Interesting theory.
As I know of your in-depth knowledge of this case,
here's a couple more questions for you...

Bedroom light on or off?

On according to Rudy. Though there is debate whether he was referring to the wall light or the desk lamp. The rest of the house lights were off.

The sweatshirt jacket was pulled down, that's interesting, something I'd not heard of before. Hard to believe that a novice thug, from what I gather RG was, would think quickly enough to do that, hmmm.

It's a standard procedure in the movies. If Rudy was thinking he wouldn't have murdered Meredith so you can't use his thinking, fast or slow as an excuse.

If that did happen, why would there be a need to restrain Meredith's arms, where the bruising on her elbows happened?

There was apparent bruising at the elbows but this could be just an artifact of the blood settling in the lowest point as the defense pointed out.

He was holding her with both of his hands on her elbows, where was his knife at this time? If he was holding her elbows tightly enough to bruise her, what did Meredith do when he would have had to have released 1 or both of her arms and pulled her sweatshirt down?

The knife doesn't need to be out until after she is restrained. Perhaps Rudy grabs her around the chest with both arms and tries to pull her straight down. The jacket slips off her shoulders as she struggles and thus pins her arms. The jacket trick doesn't need to be a deliberate act.

Was her sweatshirt found zipped or unzipped, I don't recall?

It appears unzipped in the photos of November 3 and December 18. This would need some experimenting to see how much of a restraint an unzipped jacket oiled half way down would create.

And what about the tiny knife tip wounds on her hands?

Have you seen these wounds? If you are defending yourself agains a knife you aren't going to get little pricks on your hands.

I occasionally get little pricks on my hands and arms and it has nothing to do with knives. Cats sometimes get too playful and they go into attack mode where they grab and hold your hand. The claws come out in this maneuver and they will often leave marks. The will also do this if you are doing something they don't like such as cleaning a wound when they don't trust what you are doing.

Her sneakers had 1 untied and the other still tied, right?

Or was that left?

It's common for people to kick sneakers off without untying them. But if one is too tight you have to release the knot.

What about her pants, wear they found unzipped or un-buttoned?

If these are indeed men's jeans as Raffaele states Meredith was wearing that morning, they appear to be unbuttoned but I cannot say for certain about the zip. None of the photos we have or video cover the collection of the pants.

Here's another twist:
Do you think that Rudy left a semen stain on the pillow case? It looks like he also stepped in some too. If so, when do you feel that Rudy did this, for it changes your scenario a bit, for Rudy has to get undressed too, unzip his pants, pull down his underwear. Did you think he did so before cleaning up in the bathroom or afterwards when he re-entered Meredith's bedroom?

If he did, it would have to be from before Meredith came home. As much as everyone wants to vilify Rudy, the footprint tracking that stain is impossible once the pillow is under Meredith.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Bayesian is just as vulnerable to GIGO as any method.

In the vast majority of cases emptying most likely starts within 1/2 an hour and certainly in 2 hours. I agree completely that if she had not started in 3 hours that she was very, very slow. Given what we know it is not possible to say because it was slow (if our facts are vaguely correct) that TOD must have been in just a few minutes at most. There is the drinking to consider. There is the hangover to consider. I wouldn't rule out the PLE missing a stomach ailment.

While I think that the most logical assessment of the timing issues exonerates the kids I don't think that the digestion proves they couldn't have been there.

I think we've been mocking this exact dumb argument for literally years now.

An analogous argument would be "We know the defendant was unusually tall, and we know lots of different things affect people's height which makes everything VERY CONFUSING! Therefore the defendant could perfectly well have been three and a half metres tall. We can't rule it out!"

The problem is that no matter how many real or imagined confounding factors you drag in, what will never change is that the earliest part of the post-9pm period will always be by far the likeliest time of death, and the later you push back the time the less likely it will get. You can't get around that with any number of imagined stomach problems which none of her friends and family ever heard about, imagined drinks her friends say she never had or for that matter anything else. You are trying to flatten out a bell curve and it just can't be done.

 

[Dan O.]

When I look at Rudy's cut right hand, which I'd speculate was the hand holding the knife as he again and again, if the sole attacker, thrust it into Meredith's neck again and again, I visualize that his left arm and hand was holding Meredith in a strong embrace, right?

So his right hand should have been very bloody, his left hand not so, if at all, right?

If Rudy had a not so bloody hand he would have used that to open the bedroom door. Both of Rudy's hands must have been bloody and there was nobody else in that room that could open the door for him.

Now look at the bloody handprint on Meredith's wall, above her bed:
[qimg]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/835/1f32.jpg[/qimg]


Compare your hand, and Guede's too, to that handprint.
I feel that this bloody handprint is a left hand, do you agree?

Could be left if that short finger on the left is the little finger. But by it's shape and the geometry with the other fingers it could be the thumb folded under the first finger. If we had a full photo of Rudy's hand we could try to match it.

Rudy admits that he tried to write on the wall. But he could also have seen this print in the news since is was directly visible through the open patio doors in the early morning hours of November 3 and later nights. He tried to explain it but didn't really know how it was made. That they didn't get Rudy's profile from that print, especially the sample taken from the lower part in December is a mystery.

I just cannot see a scenario in which Meredith is able to make that print that fits with all the other evidence. It requires the knife to be out before Meredith is restrained. How does Rudy accomplish that restraint with one arm out of action holding the knife? Once blood is drawn Meredith would be fighting for her life so there would definitely be defensive wounds, objects thrown across the room and Meredith would be facing her attacker.

 

[RandyN]

Man, this argument drives me crazy. It's pretty clear that Meredith should have started to seen some gastric emptying by the time she arrived home. But there is no evidence of that which means from a digestive perspective Meredith TOD should have been within minutes of arriving home. Sure, it is possible that this could have delayed a few minutes but statistically speaking she was venturing into abnormal digestive rates within a half hour.

But I suppose we will argue this point for a long time.

Grinder could be right. There is no way to know exactly what the beginning volume in the stomach was. Perhaps it was 600 cc and 100cc passed beyond the duodenum prior to her death. These are amounts that can never be certain. Did they forget to mention the 10 chocolates? (there were no chocolates as far as I know) Anyway...

This single piece of evidence...the stomach contents... is helpful but not something that can or should stand alone.

As for Lali and the body temp... IIRC he was there quite early (2-3 PM) and his request to examine the body was denied until Stefanoni arrived from Rome. It may have been her order but Mignini was certainly in charge at the scene during this time...in fact he was always ultimately in charge including after Stefanoni arrived since she also worked under him.

I recall that they kept Lali on site but he had no access for at least 12 more hours...this data is somewhere...times etc.

It is all illogical because as well as body temp Lali would have examined a host of other factors that could have helped him hone in on a better TOD.

After watching the police and prosecutor work during this case though I understand better why they do what they do. From the prosecutors perspective it is better for his case if he has lots of wiggle room. He doesn't want facts. He doesn't want evidence. He wants room to speculate because in Italy apparently they don't bother much with facts and evidence. That's why no one investigates the wall, the "staged break-in scene", no one cares when blood and hair are missing from the window area or from the victims hands or body.

This game the Italians play would never make muster in honest courts. But in Italy it appears that volume of speculation trumps value of evidence. How else can a prosecutor present 3 different motives and 4 different TOD and no time line for the case for guilt.

In fact the prosecutions own witness Toto certainly gives a perfect alibi to both AK and RS, and yet the full realization of that convoluted conclusion never connects to anyone in the Italian courts apparently. They pick the part they need...AK and RS were in the park and therefore lied ...all while ignoring the fact that Toto testifies twice....that AK and RS are in the park from 9:27 until around midnight! HELLO!!!

This in itself is so absurd, that to argue the one part (broken alibi) without the whole (absent from crime scene during all possible TOD's) should automatically justify having one instantly committed to an insane asylum.

But in Italy the judicial system has proved itself to be comprised of dim witted idiots... going by the depth of unusual conclusions made at several different levels...including the top level which seems the craziest of all.

I cant wait to see how this all pans out in the end. Italy cant dodge this anymore. They had a chance after Hellmann...not anymore though.

Two weeks until the next big joke out of Italy. It wont matter what this guy uses as an excuse for his conclusions...they just say stuff...recall Yummi...no matter how illogical of stupid or insane. Talk and pound tables...idiots!