Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Samson]

You are the fool if you think this is a certainty. In fact most of the literature would say the kind of stress you are describing would speed the process. You know as in scared ********. (without poop in system)

I expected to be called on this, but I foolishly believe my narrative.

Stress is cited for delaying gastric processing by the way.

 

[Samson]

Sorry, don’t think you have that quite right, but it’s ok.

They didn't voluntarily join the prosecution?

 

[CoulsdonUK]

Coulsdon I really like answers. What do you think of C&V? Will you respect the US courts decisions? Etc.

Grinder

As do I although it is possible I missed your response to my post #3711, last paragraph in particular. That being said it is 2am in the UK and I need my ugly sleep so I’ll respond tomorrow (er, later today).

 

[Desert Fox]

They voluntarily joined the prosecution. They could have sprinted in the opposite direction, and Hellmann would have prevailed.

Even if they had just stepped back, might have allowed Hellmann to prevail

 

[Samson]

Even if they had just stepped back, might have allowed Hellmann to prevail

I exaggerate, but I know what I would have done and all NZers do when their loved ones are murdered. They become obsessive about independently researching the evidence. There is not a snowball's chance they would have fallen for this crock.

 

[andreajo]

I am glad for and respect your view here, but I am confounded by the case. It is driving me nuts, because I know Rudy broke in (it is impossible and unnecessary to generate the velocity to drive the glass shard into the shutter from inside), and I know that Meredith was shocked and surprised by Guede, and her digestive process halted right then. These facts are uncontestable (albeit contested by fools). If this is scientifically certain, anyone who prosecutes the two are guilty of wilful ignorance, and I condemn them for it.

Many people are not naturally good at or trained in scientific reasoning. Many people make decisions based on gut feelings, superficial impressions, and what is socially acceptable in their circles. Many people believe what they want, and interpret their observations as evidence to support what they would like to believe. Many people are incapable of letting go of a key idea once it has been acquired, especially if they would have to admit to being or doing wrong. Don't assume their ignorance is willful, and don't let it make you crazy.

A good system with built-in oversight helps to control for natural human error. The Italian system, with the built-in conflict of interest (combined civil and criminal proceedings) and its lack of rules of evidence, and its criminal calunnia charges if you say anything bad about the prosecution or police does not help to reduce natural human error.

 

[Samson]

Here is a paper to support my statement.

METHODOLOGY:

We investigated the gastric emptying rate in beagle dogs using a radio-labeled solid test meal and a gamma camera. The transport to an unknown environment served as a stress stimulus. This offers the advantage to mimic fairly well the clinical situation just before a diagnostic or therapeutic procedure. Control values were obtained after the third investigation, in which all dogs were accustomed to the environment.

RESULTS:

Regional analysis of the emptying curves from the whole gastric region revealed that the length of the lag phase increased with stress, but the post-initial emptying rate remained unchanged. Emptying of the fundus changed hardly, but the antropyloral motor activity decreased during stress.

CONCLUSIONS:

Gastric emptying rate is impeded during stress. It is necessary to limit the unnatural stress-stimuli, in order to mimic the clinical situation. Measurement techniques that influence directly gastric emptying or act as a stress-stimulus by themselves are undesirable. A radionuclide solid test meal is preferable and a regional analysis reveals the impairment of the antral motility as the mechanism of the delay of gastric emptying.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12239966

My independent researcher on TOD finalised with this after I furnished the following.

Edit to add

The court watched the actual autopsy performed by pathologist Dr. Lalli, who correctly closed the duodenum to prevent any slippage of the stomach contents downward. The duodenum was found empty showing that the stomach contents had not yet passed from the stomach. The stomach contents were measured to be 500 cc's and the findings indicated cheese and other items consistent with Meredith's meal.

Meredith's meal with friends began around 6:00 p.m. in the evening. She arrived home slightly before 9:00 p.m.

What further observations would you make associating this testimony with the two links?

death must have occured very soon after eating

Effectively this closes the correspondence.

My conclusion is that Meredith's gastric emptying was imminent when she arrived home.

According to the paper above, this may have been halted if she suddenly encountered stress. Of course the standard crime model has Rudy in the house when she arrives home, and therefore she was killed immediately, or after a time under extreme stress. Raffaele had yet to open the cartoon.

The second link is back up Grinder

http://www.vivo.colostate.edu/hbooks/pathphys/digestion/basics/transit.html

Furthermore the embedded glass shard required a large motion wind up to gain its bullet like velocity. I am working on the final proof.

I am satisfied there is no possibility of Guede being absent from the house at 9 05, as no other crime theory can account for a large noise being made with either an occupant or a dead body inside at the time of this throw.

 

[Samson]

Many people are not naturally good at or trained in scientific reasoning. Many people make decisions based on gut feelings, superficial impressions, and what is socially acceptable in their circles. Many people believe what they want, and interpret their observations as evidence to support what they would like to believe. Many people are incapable of letting go of a key idea once it has been acquired, especially if they would have to admit to being or doing wrong. Don't assume their ignorance is willful, and don't let it make you crazy.

A good system with built-in oversight helps to control for natural human error. The Italian system, with the built-in conflict of interest (combined civil and criminal proceedings) and its lack of rules of evidence, and its criminal calunnia charges if you say anything bad about the prosecution or police does not help to reduce natural human error.

Andreajo I still feel you are overlooking the solemn duty of the Kercher family to do the required study before joining the prosecution. I can never forgive people for this, and am now determined more than ever to do anything I can to help reverse the direction of this terrible travesty, but I do understand the points you make, thank you.

 

[andreajo]

Andreajo I still feel you are overlooking the solemn duty of the Kercher family to do the required study before joining the prosecution. I can never forgive people for this, and am now determined more than ever to do anything I can to help reverse the direction of this terrible travesty, but I do understand the points you make, thank you.

The duty belonged to the professionals whose job it was to get it right. Not a grieving family who put their trust in those professionals in an overwhelming situation. The Kerchers didn't have the emotional detachment, the training, or the information available to them to do what you wish they had done, and now they are entrenched.

Though i disagree, I likewise understand the points you are making. Thanks for the exchange.

 

[Grinder]

I expected to be called on this, but I foolishly believe my narrative.

Stress is cited for delaying gastric processing by the way.

Stress yes, fear not so much.

To say she was stressed is a huge understatement.

 

[RandyN]

Sorry none of the names mentioned above are familiar.



Not what I have been reading, did you see Reeva’s Mothers face when OP was apologizing earlier this week, nah that wasn’t forgiveness, no way.



Which facts? Those recorded in a judicial process or one’s being discussed on various discussion sites?



Really! I mean really? Are you surprised? Raffaele is in Italy more than likely facing a prison term or estrangement from his family (assuming he can escape from the European Union); whilst Amanda is at home with friends and family and more than likely will remain safe in America and you wonder why Raffaele sister might loathe Amanda; amazing. <snip>

I have not heard this. I suppose it could be true.

The facts of the matter should have Vanessa being angry and even loathing the corrupt legal system in Italy!

Don't forget that somewhere along the way Italy felt the need to sack Vanessa from her job. I have no details about that but, just guessing it sounds like a retaliatory move by Italy. Another reason for her to hate her corrupt society and county!

But Amanda? That would be like blaming the apple for being on the tree and tempting Eve... right?

As for the political matters? Girlanda and company were right to call for an investigation into this prosecution. What they did wrong is to go all cowardly and silent in light of continued and mounting evidence that the corruption didn't stop at the prosecutors office door.

Now it appears to have reached very high into the judicial halls of Italy. All the way the the top in fact. Unless someone has a very good explanation of how the ISC motivation report explains the overturning of Hellmann? Hellmann called the ISC actions "illegal". Other analysts called it illogical and dishonest.

Logically other than outright fraud, I cant think of a way to explain how the ISC allowed RG case to become a part of AK and RS case while clearly failing to provide AK and RS the opportunity to cross examine or participate in RG trial. This issue alone shows how backward and off track they actually are in Italy.

Not a bad system actually, just bad people working in it, with no system of checks and balances to correct the corruption...and so even the good guys have to start bending things just to get along...or else they quit...which is what many frustrated judges actually do there.

The Sollecitos live in a country with the worst judicial record of human rights violations in any Western country...so says the European Court Of Human Rights anyway. Only Turkey is worse and just barely...they are quite on par.

The charts and numbers are available and Italy can not deny their own record no matter how much they wish to diminish their sad state.

 

[Grinder]

Here is a paper to support my statement.

METHODOLOGY:

We investigated the gastric emptying rate in beagle dogs using a radio-labeled solid test meal and a gamma camera. The transport to an unknown environment served as a stress stimulus. This offers the advantage to mimic fairly well the clinical situation just before a diagnostic or therapeutic procedure. Control values were obtained after the third investigation, in which all dogs were accustomed to the environment.

RESULTS:

Regional analysis of the emptying curves from the whole gastric region revealed that the length of the lag phase increased with stress, but the post-initial emptying rate remained unchanged. Emptying of the fundus changed hardly, but the antropyloral motor activity decreased during stress.

CONCLUSIONS:

Gastric emptying rate is impeded during stress. It is necessary to limit the unnatural stress-stimuli, in order to mimic the clinical situation. Measurement techniques that influence directly gastric emptying or act as a stress-stimulus by themselves are undesirable. A radionuclide solid test meal is preferable and a regional analysis reveals the impairment of the antral motility as the mechanism of the delay of gastric emptying.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12239966

My independent researcher on TOD finalised with this after I furnished the following.

Edit to add

The court watched the actual autopsy performed by pathologist Dr. Lalli, who correctly closed the duodenum to prevent any slippage of the stomach contents downward. The duodenum was found empty showing that the stomach contents had not yet passed from the stomach. The stomach contents were measured to be 500 cc's and the findings indicated cheese and other items consistent with Meredith's meal.

Meredith's meal with friends began around 6:00 p.m. in the evening. She arrived home slightly before 9:00 p.m.

What further observations would you make associating this testimony with the two links?

death must have occured very soon after eating

Effectively this closes the correspondence.

My conclusion is that Meredith's gastric emptying was imminent when she arrived home.

According to the paper above, this may have been halted if she suddenly encountered stress. Of course the standard crime model has Rudy in the house when she arrives home, and therefore she was killed immediately, or after a time under extreme stress. Raffaele had yet to open the cartoon.

The second link is back up Grinder

http://www.vivo.colostate.edu/hbooks/pathphys/digestion/basics/transit.html

Furthermore the embedded glass shard required a large motion wind up to gain its bullet like velocity. I am working on the final proof.

I am satisfied there is no possibility of Guede being absent from the house at 9 05, as no other crime theory can account for a large noise being made with either an occupant or a dead body inside at the time of this throw.

I really don't put any stock in this, Dogs don't exactly understand being raped and murdered and the stress isn't specific from your reporting.

The defense said the dinner occurred at 6:30 and as I have said before the research must be on a person that hasn't started the movemnet of chyme for 2.5 to 3 hours not on a average person.

Meredith could easily have lived until 10 or later.

Back to the dogs - don't really believe you've gone so low as to use a poor beagle - they were in environmental stress like being at the vets. They weren't confronted with eminent death nor could they have understood it in the way people do.

The court also correctly found that Meredith's DNA was on the knife and Raf's foot left the bloody print.

Personally I believe that some chyme had made it to the duodenum but that's a guess just like your medical expert.

The second link makes the case that there is great variance between people and that gastric emptying

The discussion above should help to explain why it is difficult to state with any precision how long ingesta remains in the stomach, small intestine and large intestine. Nonetheless, there have been many studies on GI transit, and the table below presents rough estimates for transit times in healthy humans following ingestion of a standard meal (i.e. solid, mixed foods).​

The graph is from ONE person.

I'll ask my dental assistant how long it takes on average for chyme to move in a person that was binge drinking the night before and still had a drink in her and hadn't started emptying for 2.5 to 3 hours.

My guess is 3.5 hours. Maybe I'll ask my vet as well.

 

[Kaosium]

Stress yes, fear not so much.

To say she was stressed is a huge understatement.

You're mistaken, Grinder. To wit:

Generally, the sympathetic division prepares the body for stressful or emergency situations—fight or flight. Thus, it increases heart rate and the force of heart contractions and widens (dilates) the airways to make breathing easier. It causes the body to release stored energy. Muscular strength is increased. This division also causes palms to sweat, pupils to dilate, and hair to stand on end. It slows body processes that are less important in emergencies, such as digestion and urination.

Dunno the etymology of being 'scared turdless' (or piddling ones pants) but I've a niggling memory it might be the result of the (immediate) scare being over and the parasympathetic division taking back over and that sometimes causing waste to be eliminated, i.e. bowels empty. So it isn't the actual scare but that stimulation ending and the body getting a little sloppy as it's returned to normal.

ETA: I suspect that might be related to the phenomena of burglars and such sometimes taking dumps at places they burgle. As they enter and their body and mind are prepared for conflict/danger the sympathetic division has control, but once they enter and they find no occupants the parasympathetic division takes back over and they end up having to use the bathroom.

 

[RandyN]

I am not belittling Raffaele situation, just that his families along with the Kercher family position is completely understandable given their specific circumstances.

No, no, no! The Kercher family should be angry with Rudy Guede...but instead they appear ambivalent about him. The Kerchers should be angry with Mignini and Maresca because they obviously took them down some crazy path that after 6 years is as evident as being wrong, unfounded, not supported by any evidence at all!!!

Raffaele family needed him to lie and create a false story in order to get what they desired. How can they even justify such dishonesty? RS called his book Honor Bound...but its not about honor...its about not being a corrupt liar...plain and simple.

The evidence after 6 years is clear and indisputable. Italy can try covering the truth in smoke but at the end of the day...this is a simple case that a sensationalist (Mignini) blew it over the top on. In the end he will drag down dozens in the Italian judiciary and police forces.

This case is absurd enough to gain "Big Foot" status...and the crazier Italy makes it the more the skeptics will pick it apart and humiliate them.

Kerchers and Sollcitos and Knox should all be angry...first for Guede killing poor Miss Kercher and second for Italy allowing Guede the freedom to do that. And for then trying to hide their mistakes in the crazy imagination of G. Mignini. And finally angrier still for catching Guede and then slapping his hand and soon to be releasing him....these are not people firing on all cylinders...logically or honestly speaking.

 

[Grinder]

You're mistaken, Grinder. To wit:





Dunno the etymology of being 'scared turdless' (or piddling ones pants) but I've a niggling memory it might be the result of the (immediate) scare being over and the parasympathetic division taking back over and that sometimes causing waste to be eliminated, i.e. bowels empty. So it isn't the actual scare but that stimulation ending and the body getting a little sloppy as it's returned to normal.

ETA: I suspect that might be related to the phenomena of burglars and such sometimes taking dumps at places they burgle. As they enter and their body and mind are prepared for conflict/danger the sympathetic division has control, but once they enter and they find no occupants the parasympathetic division takes back over and they end up having to use the bathroom.

Damn I hate that

There has been plenty of cites going the other way. This was an argument of the PGP to say that the whole digestion argument doesn't work and IIRC one of our stars refuted it.

I don't really care because if you wish to assume that she hadn't started to empty for 2.5 hours and was then put in fear (stress) then TOD could be delayed even longer.

Bottom line is that the digestion won't give a better TOD than the phone activity.

At least you didn't give beagle stats.

 

[Samson]

I really don't put any stock in this, Dogs don't exactly understand being raped and murdered and the stress isn't specific from your reporting.

The defense said the dinner occurred at 6:30 and as I have said before the research must be on a person that hasn't started the movemnet of chyme for 2.5 to 3 hours not on a average person.

Meredith could easily have lived until 10 or later.

Back to the dogs - don't really believe you've gone so low as to use a poor beagle - they were in environmental stress like being at the vets. They weren't confronted with eminent death nor could they have understood it in the way people do.

The court also correctly found that Meredith's DNA was on the knife and Raf's foot left the bloody print.

Personally I believe that some chyme had made it to the duodenum but that's a guess just like your medical expert.

The second link makes the case that there is great variance between people and that gastric emptying

The discussion above should help to explain why it is difficult to state with any precision how long ingesta remains in the stomach, small intestine and large intestine. Nonetheless, there have been many studies on GI transit, and the table below presents rough estimates for transit times in healthy humans following ingestion of a standard meal (i.e. solid, mixed foods).​

The graph is from ONE person.

I'll ask my dental assistant how long it takes on average for chyme to move in a person that was binge drinking the night before and still had a drink in her and hadn't started emptying for 2.5 to 3 hours.

My guess is 3.5 hours. Maybe I'll ask my vet as well.

I am certain of my research results, partly because they accord with the crime as it occurred. My apologies for sounding dogmatic. So it's poor Raffy not poor Rudy now with a Bigfoot?
As I have said, I am sure the sinister British girls dined later than claimed, probably 7 30. I know the graph is one person, but the median time of 165 minutes for 50% gastric emptying is clearly many people. The single case has 80 minutes for 0% emptying. Binge drinking is fine within six hours of doing the test, though one is admittedly unlikely to indulge with a medical test pending.

 

[Kaosium]

Damn I hate that

There has been plenty of cites going the other way. This was an argument of the PGP to say that the whole digestion argument doesn't work and IIRC one of our stars refuted it.

That's because to keep the torture fantasies of some and the 11:45 ToD some proposed that digestion could be stopped over the course of hours. They took it too far in other words, that's just not going to happen.

I don't really care because if you wish to assume that she hadn't started to empty for 2.5 hours and was then put in fear (stress) then TOD could be delayed even longer.

Not that long though.

Bottom line is that the digestion won't give a better TOD than the phone activity.

The evidence of her duodenum and clinical studies suggest that the most likely time she was stabbed was when she returned home, with the percentage chance it happened after that declining rather rapidly with each passing minute until there's no data whatsoever for that occurring with someone who could be considered healthy.

At least you didn't give beagle stats.

Be careful with Kiwis and the digestion argument. It was behind a paywall, but the best clinical studies done on this subject which were posted here (and even included light alcohol consumption BTW) were by a New Zealander with an ironic name, something like 'McQuack,' who was doing research for diabetes medicine as I recall. If the one you mock has access to that med database you're going to be in for a very rough time of it indeed!

Off the top of my head I don't think anyone in any study has ever gone more than four hours, the ones that went more than three hours being extremely rare to begin with, and as Tagliabracci (I think ETA: Introna or something rings more bells after reflection) noted before Massei it's not exactly a normal distribution Guassian curve, like a bell curve (but they don't have to all be shaped exactly like bells and this one cannot be) but the principles are the same and you've not just skied down the slope you've flattened out completely by 3.5 hours.

The problem here for the innocentisti is that it cannot be proved impossible that one could go more than four hours, just that no one has ever done that. Some of Kevin Lowe's best posts in these threads were in demonstrating that just because Meredith had to be in the top ~4% of the length doesn't mean anything is therefore equally likely: she was still human. Her place on that curve with a 9:10 PM ToD was in the top ~4%, (might have been 3%--dun recall for sure) which is roughly the same as human males in excess of 6'2" (which operates on similar principles). Rare, but hardly that difficult to find. Putting her ToD at 10:30 (like Guede's trial) had her at the extent of recorded data, roughly akin to the odds of an eight foot male. 11:45 meant she was the equivalent of a male being ten feet tall or so.


You cannot prove that a ten foot male could not exist, just as you cannot prove Meredith did not go five hours without passing anything to her duodenum, only that no known human has ever done it as far as we know.


You can, however be skeptical of that claim, and you can show it was more likely to be at 9:15 than 9:30, a helluva lot more likely to be 9:30 than 10:00 PM, and that no one has ever gone more than 4 hours as far as we know, and that includes studies which allow for a small consumption of alcohol.

 

[Kaosium]

It was Horowitz, not McQuack, I must have gotten his name mixed up with another guy who lives where the stars are strange and has been cited numerous times in this thread: Quickenden or something who wrote numerous papers regarding luminol. Note when employing his studies sometimes it's the 'control' you have to use as he may be doing the study to show something regarding slower gastric emptying in his diabetes patients.

Incidentally here is a brief post where I tried to draw a picture of the data that came from Chris Halkides' post to illustrate this concept and when my memory of the information that's buried in these eight threads was clearer.

 

[JREF2010]

Mr. Maresca has been quite a force for the prosecution.

Of course, all of this would require them to believe differently than they do, or at least require them to retreat to a position of neutrality.

Excuse me for snipping these two points of your post, but I really agree. In the very beginning I saw in the news pictures the prosecution and police surrounding the victim family as a powerful chess-play for the prosecution.
To have the victims family sitting on the side of the prosecution would sway most neutral jurors, right?

If a juror doesnt really have a intelligent vote, or just an undecided vote, one could easily be swayed to the position of the victims family. I know I could. Its a powerful "play" to win the victims vote, and Maresca accomplished this in a big way. To read the victims family wants them guilty is a powerful thing, in my opinion.

Why Maresca was drooling like a wolf to convict, instead of sitting stoic and impartial and allowing the courts to see the evidence, only he knows.

the unfortunate power of politics would be my guess.

I strongly agree with you, if the two remain guilty, Maresca had huge hand in this mess of convicting innocent people to prison.

 

[Samson]

It was Horowitz, not McQuack, I must have gotten his name mixed up with another guy who lives where the stars are strange and has been cited numerous times in this thread: Quickenden or something who wrote numerous papers regarding luminol. Note when employing his studies sometimes it's the 'control' you have to use as he may be doing the study to show something regarding slower gastric emptying in his diabetes patients.

Incidentally here is a brief post where I tried to draw a picture of the data that came from Chris Halkides' post to illustrate this concept and when my memory of the information that's buried in these eight threads was clearer.

We get a lunar eclipse here tomorrow, must be why I'm getting mad as hell. I realise you people have probably been through this phase.