On the basis of the above (and all of your post), you and I are barely disagreeing at all beyond the level of "angels on a pin head". So the following are just some quite general personal comments -
When you say “But he (Crossan) still seems to be a believer. Ehrman is not” , can we be clear that you are talking there about belief in God? Because if we are talking about Jesus (as we were/are), then both Ehrman & Crossan do say they believe Jesus is a matter of known “certainty“.
Yes, certainly. I should have been clearer -- I meant belief in God, or even belief in Jesus as savior. Don't completely know about Crossan. Ehrman doesn't seem to believe in either a transcendent God or Jesus as savior any longer. He clearly used to, though.
When you say that you “object to anyone who says that Jesus definitely, no question about it, existed too. I don't see any way to make such an absolute statement.”, I have to point out that you will in that case definitely need to object to Bart Ehrman and Dominic Crossan, and afaik almost all bible scholars, e.g. where Ehrman says in his book that “almost every properly trained scholar on the planet” agrees with his views and where he (Ehrman) repeatedly said in that book that Jesus “certainly” “definitely” “did exist”.
And on that particular point of such well known and supposedly most academically expert and agnostically sceptic scholars as Bart Ehrman being incautious enough to write repeatedly declaring “certainty” , people really ought to ask themselves what sort of level of academic prowess it is that has it’s most celebrated practitioners writing so incautiously as that in a commercial book which they must have known would be seen by millions of people?
It’s really inconceivable that even the most lightweight research scientist would write anything as incautious and unprofessional as that unless he/she really did mean to express such certainty and felt very confident indeed of defending his/her words.
IOW - that sort of repeated lack of care should tell people a great deal about the difference in academic rigor and expertise that exists within a field like Bible Studies compared to any properly objective field such as theoretical/mathematical physics where, as some here know, I spent most of my academic past. And I only chuck in that piece of personal info because several HJ people here, and one in particular, have repeatedly told myself and others that we are not academically qualified to criticise bible scholars like Bart Ehrman, and that any such remarks I may make about apparent lack of care and objectivity in their work is an “ad hominem” etc. Well some of us have spent decades in far more careful, precise and objective academic research where “evidence” of the kind reportedly relied upon by bible scholars would be rejected as so hopelessly flawed as to be inadmissible from the start.
Yeah, but....
There is no way to compare physics and chemistry to 'soft' pursuits like Bible Studies, History or Psychology. They are entirely different in their approaches.
With that said, yes, I basically agree that the careful approach is to admit ignorance. We are largely ignorant of the early first century and there is simply no possible way to find certainty about what occurred in that time. The best we can do is speak of possibilities and probabilities.
Personally I think it is a mistake, therefore, to think of it, in any way, similar to our knowledge of physics and chemistry. Not the same kettle of fish at all.
While I think Ehrman and Crossan go a little far in their pronouncements and in their certainty, I do not think it worth the trouble to argue about it. So, they feel they are certain. Well, I'm not.
Towards this end I think it wise to consider the distinction between physical and epistemic probabilities. What Ehrman and Crossan refer to are epistemic probabilities that they feel are certain or near certain. They feel confident in their belief that Jesus existed. It may still not be the case that Jesus actually did exist. They give their reasons why they feel epistemically certain -- meaning that they are fully convinced by the available evidence and supporting arguments. I feel less certain than they do, but I don't think there is any point holding their certainty against them. After all, they know much more about this than I do.
If we want to derive a more 'objective' view about all of this, the approach that Richard Carrier wants to employ is Bayesian analysis. That seems fine, but that type of analysis has always struck me as a way to make opinion look scientific. Personally, I think there is lots of wiggle room assigning prior probabilities, etc. so I am not as sanguine as he about that approach.
We are, I'm afraid, left with the way humans navigate the world.
What I think I'm hearing from you is that you would prefer a definite result -- a clear-cut yes/no answer to the question of Jesus' existence. Basically the sort of results one sees in the hard sciences. Even there, of course, we cannot speak of 100% certainty, but for all intents and purposes we can treat those results as 100% certain.
That doesn't exist in history. Even the 'best' ancient Greek historian -- or journalist -- Thucydides made up speeches that seemed like what he thought was said or should have been said in certain situations. We simply cannot rely on ancient testimony in the way that we can rely on scientific experiment.
So, what are we left with? No one wants to admit the answer is 'feelings'. The way we navigate the world is largely based on feeling what is right and what is wrong. There are reasons why we think some things are right and some things wrong and different people have different thresholds for evidence they accept for right and wrong.
Those sorts of feelings are part of what we mean by epistemic probability. There are plenty of situations where we have excellent evidence and we can provide terrific arguments and be relatively certain of the results. There are other situations where the evidence is really terrible -- and the historical Jesus is just one of those situations.
My take -- if you want to pin me down -- is this: when it comes to the distinction between physical probability and epistemic probability, I think there is no way to establish any certainty
at all about the physical probability of Jesus' existence. I agree with you that we really would need better evidence to speak of Jesus as actually existing in the past (with certainty). He may well have and I think that someone who the stories hand on did But that person, even if he did exist, is probably (as a wise poster on this forum in the past said) in the same category as Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz -- based on a real person but virtually none of what happened to her in the stories has anything to do with the actual Dorothy.
As far as epistemic probability, I am convinced by the available evidence that it is more probable that such a person existed even though I know the evidence is piss poor. The primary reason I think that is the other option is total mythology. For total mythology to be true there must be an originator. The mythological originator is either Paul or someone else. If someone else then that person is lost to history so I have no way to know anything about the creation of the mythology. If Paul, then we have some evidence in his writings that he was not the originator of the myth, only a propagator. Yes, this requires that I believe those bits of evidence from Pau, but I do, so shoot me.
When you say “Most academic HJ research does not concern itself with Jesus as messiah -- that is a matter of faith. HJ 'research' concerns if he existed and what he might have actually done if he existed” … afaik, there is actually no Jesus originally described except for the biblical Jesus of peoples faith. The idea of a HJ is something relatively modern. But the only evidence for any Jesus, is that biblical writing which does not describe belief in a so-called “HJ” at all. The evidence (such as it is in the bible) is evidence of a miraculous supernatural Jesus … or rather, to be precise, it’s only evidence of peoples beliefs in a supernatural messiah that none of them had ever known except through generations of belief in OT prophecy drawn from centuries before Paul and the others were even born.
Well, there are a few references to Jesus as a person in Paul's letters, but IIRC there are only four and they are just throw-away lines.
The Jesus described in Mark is not supernatural (before death), but certainly miraculous. But miracles were considered part and parcel of the schtick of 'great men' in the ancient world. One of the problems reading this material is that we cannot look at it with modern eyes and see things the way the ancients did. They considered miracles part of their world, at least in stories if not in real life. Herodotus' writings are full of the miraculous and supernatural, including a serpent woman and something to do with Herakles IIRC.
So, the existence of the miraculous is neither here nor there when it comes to modern scholarship trying to piece out what might or might not have been historical about the guy.
If by “extra biblical material” you mean the usual sources such as Tacitus and Josephus, then I’m afraid that is of absolutely no credibility at all in respect of it‘s ultra brief mention of “Jesus“. We have been through this before very many times, but very briefly - the fact is (apparently) that none of that extra-biblical writing is known in extant form (i.e. actually existing) except from copies made around 1000 years and more after the original writers had all died. And that vast discrepancy in the dates alone, makes any such extra biblical sources inadmissible as reliable writing about a messiah that none of those non-biblical writers could possibly have ever themselves known anyway.
Really, the bible scholars (and everyone else) is stuck just with the bible. And that is quite obviously neither reliable as a source (only anonymous copies available from long after the events), and not remotely credible in what is says (impossible miracles on almost every page).
Actually I specifically mentioned only two things, both from Josephus and neither concerned the passages about Jesus directly. One is a reference to James, the brother of Jesus and the other to John the Baptist. Josephus attests these people as existing, and they show up in the Christian writings -- John in the gospels and James in one of Paul's letters. It is the reference to James, as Jesus' brother (arguable what was meant by brother, I know) in Josephus and Paul that provides the evidence for Jesus as historical that sways me, even given the problems in interpretation. The other reason that I think he actually existed is that I simply cannot make the pure mythology approach work to my satisfaction (he either existed or he didn't exist, so there is either minimal Jesus or Jesus as pure myth as an option). If someone could provide a really good pure myth explanation that explains all the evidence I am certainly willing to change my mind.