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Weird Experience

What, that single events have totally disconfirmed theories? How many living coelacanths do you think needed to be found before the belief "Coelacanths are extinct" was completely discomfirmed? I'll tell you how many: one was sufficient.

This was addressed here:

Cool, your favourite example of something that has never been proven to exist (the paranormal) is something that was widely known to have existed and wrongly thought to have been extinct.

OK, now all we need is for the paranormal to be widely known to exist and then wrongly thought to be extinct and it's a great example.

Again what you appear to fail to see is that a living example of something physical is not really a single data point, it is something which can be verified and studied objectively. It can be compared to all the other data points we have about this creature, cross referenced with other data we have on closely related creatures etc.

As with plucking some numbers out of the air once in a lifetime. We can compare it to all the other hundreds of thousands of people across the world who have plucked numbers out of the air and won the lottery once in their lifetime. What each individual ascribes it to is irrelevant, the maths shows that someone will do it so it's no surprise when someone does it.

You're conflating single events that can be factually shown to be true or false with single events that, in your world, have no obvious rational explanation, and concluding that the latter must, therefore, be attributable to inexplicable phenomena.
 
That's all true. In your zener cards example, the cards could be marked - 100 correct? No problem.

Except the experiment would happen under controlled circumstances, which I already stated. It's not "no problem" then. Are you saying you can't set up a controlled experiment where you're not sure the person is cheating? That every ESP test is slip-shod and cards are just tossed around with no controls? Please.

And yes, I admitted it's a bias. Will you admit the opposite bias is in play as well? That someone may default to a supernatural explanation when they can't readily come up with a normal one?

Of course the opposite bias is in play. Look at all the mediums that were conning people at the turn of the century (and are still conning people through cold reading). But why do you bring this up? Do you think one bias excuses another?

The really troubling bit is that a secular explanation really attempts to explain - in terms and ideas we are quite familiar with. What does a supernatural explanation do other than say, "I don't have a better idea?"

Scientific explanations say the same thing! Do you think we know what dark energy is, or dark matter, or why inflation happened, or whether there's a multiverse of universes? We only know approximately what 5% of the universe is made of. The rest is a total mystery. Nobody has a "better idea" than anyone else.

If we discovered someone with psi-talents (and apparently some people here would never be convinced a psi-talent could ever exist), we'd have a supernatural explanation for some kind of phenomenon. I'm sure we would investigate further, but it might always remain a mystery, like how life started on Earth. Some things are, in principle, non-discoverable. Tell me what it's like to fall into a black hole...



Is a supernatural explanation an explanation at all?

Of course, because all the competing explanations are discarded. Let's go back to someone who can pass every Zener test we throw at them, under every controlled condition possible. They get 10,000 out of 10,000 cards right. We put the person on the moon, and they still pass the tests. What other rational explanation is there? When you've eliminated every possible scientific theory, what else is there? Maybe there's not much explanatory power behind a supernatural explanation, but if it's the only one left standing, what else can you do?

To make it one, you'd have to then describe how the supernatural worked, and in some detail. If you managed that, wouldn't it simply become a natural explanation after all?

Sure, once you discovered how it worked it would fit into mainstream science, like all the other amazing discoveries that have changed science. Infections come from invisible organisms? Well, that's new. Better revise our theories on how people get sick. I swear, some of the people here would have been railing against germ theory. It's miasmic vapors, I tells ya!

Why is it that no one seems to be saying the effects of what we call 'dark matter' are supernatural forces? I mean, you have all the correct conditions: no obvious answer or explanation, mysterious and unexpected observations, no possibility (or none we can identify) of cheating...

Because there's no reason to invoke Dark Matter as anything supernatural. It doesn't explain reports of supernatural phenomenon, like NDE's or death bed visions. Neither does Dark energy. We essentially made it up to explain phenomenon that is inexplicable to us. Dark Energy and Matter are almost magical, when you really think about it.

I'm not so sure what it will turn out to be. I'm open-minded. My philosophy is, when 95% of the universe is a mystery, one should entertain a wide variety of explanations.

So why isn't dark matter the A-number-one example of supernatural forces?

Because it was invoked to explain phenomena that is inexplicable. There's no proof dark matter or energy exist. We suppose Dark Matter/Energy exists because it's a convenient way to explain certain observations. It's all highly speculative without a shred of evidence to support it. It's like the Multiverse- it explains cosmic fine-tuning, but there's no evidence other universes exist. Inflation theory got a boost the other day, but multiverse theory was popular before that.
 
The obvious conclusion is that it's not a prediction at all, but a trick. We see it all of the time on magic shows, albeit in variant forms.

Would you agree?

LOL, so psi-experiments are the equivalent of magic shows? There's no way to test psi abilities without eliminating the possibility of cheating? Are efficacious drug trials also examples of cheating?

OK, whatever. Scientists who study these things are idiots with no idea how to set up a controlled experiment. If someone demonstrates a psi-ability, it's either phenomenal luck, or cheating.

Got ya, this forum is a joke, and good luck with that.
 
Except the experiment would happen under controlled circumstances, which I already stated. It's not "no problem" then. Are you saying you can't set up a controlled experiment where you're not sure the person is cheating? That every ESP test is slip-shod and cards are just tossed around with no controls? Please.

I mentioned I do magic. I am very familiar with appearances that fool people, sometimes deeply and profoundly. "Controlled circumstances" is one of the things built into a good magic trick.

"Of course the cards were shuffled - I shuffled them myself!"
"There's no way he could have known."

etc., etc.

LOL, so psi-experiments are the equivalent of magic shows? There's no way to test psi abilities without eliminating the possibility of cheating? Are efficacious drug trials also examples of cheating?

OK, whatever. Scientists who study these things are idiots with no idea how to set up a controlled experiment. If someone demonstrates a psi-ability, it's either phenomenal luck, or cheating.

Got ya, this forum is a joke, and good luck with that.

Here are some options we can choose from:
1) A miracle happened.
2) An improbable, but possible event happened.
3) The appearance of a miracle or improbable event was simulated by trickery.
4) There is some unknown factor giving the appearance of a miracle or improbable event, but no intentional trickery.
5) I am fooling myself by some means, either a perception or interpretation error.

Among those, it is up to us to decide which is more likely in any particular case. Repetition by other investigators in different circumstances will tend to decrease the likelihood of some of them as well. Repetition also allows us to vary different parameters slightly to figure out which part of the experiment is essential to the outcome.

The need for replication is what makes one-off miracles hard to study.
 
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This is a joke, right? If someone correctly predicted a number out of 100 decillion possible numbers, you would conclude it's a fluke? That is your position, that it's a one-time lucky guess?

This is starting to get embarrassing. Nobody here can possibly believe that. Is there anyone who supports this? Is this what passes for "skepticism" around here? What on Earth did I stumble into in this subforum?

I am simply pointing out that in order to win the Million Dollar Challenge, the applicant would have to do it twice. I did not write the rules for the MDC.

Ward
 
LOL, so psi-experiments are the equivalent of magic shows? There's no way to test psi abilities without eliminating the possibility of cheating? Are efficacious drug trials also examples of cheating?

OK, whatever. Scientists who study these things are idiots with no idea how to set up a controlled experiment. If someone demonstrates a psi-ability, it's either phenomenal luck, or cheating.

Got ya, this forum is a joke, and good luck with that.
Stop muddying the waters. You gave a hypothetical example (minus details of the conditions) - I offered the most likely explanation and asked whether you agreed or not. You went off on a tangent. Answer the question: do you agree that in the hypothetical example that you gave trickery is the most likely explanation, or are you moving the goalposts now and saying that we should assume that the possibility of cheating should be discounted, because the more you move the goalposts like that the more your hypothetical becomes fantasy, thereby moving away from rational and meaningful consideration. You can't have it both ways - a fantasy world demands fantasy explanations. We, however, live in the real world, which has no place for your fanciful examples, which warrant no attempt at rational explanation.

Decide where you want to play Fudbucker - fantasy world or real world, and then observe the applicable laws.
 
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Right, they're not non-existent, but if I said, you, CainKane, will see at least one N.M. plate this afternoon, and you see two, are you telling me you wouldn't wonder about how I predicted that? What if I told you your tire would blowout on the freeway today and it happened?

Better yet; what if both happened, say one day apart.
See, that`s the stuff that happens to me. My record is about 4 oddities dealing with my rare thoughts, then being on tv, within 1 hour!
 
.. If someone demonstrates a psi-ability, it's either phenomenal luck, or cheating...
Up to now it has been yes.

Well actually, that's not exactly true. What we find is that when people demonstrate psi-ability, most of the time they simply have no idea that what they are doing is unremarkable. Like seeing some out of state plates and incorrectly concluding it could be special because they have no idea if it's special or not, having not done any actual research to test how special or not it is.

Or the old lady who has played the lottery for two decades and eventually she wins and believes it conclusively proves the numbers that came to her in a dream 20 years ago were sent by God.
 
Of course, because all the competing explanations are discarded. Let's go back to someone who can pass every Zener test we throw at them, under every controlled condition possible. They get 10,000 out of 10,000 cards right. We put the person on the moon, and they still pass the tests. What other rational explanation is there? When you've eliminated every possible scientific theory, what else is there? Maybe there's not much explanatory power behind a supernatural explanation, but if it's the only one left standing, what else can you do?
Ah right, so what you're saying is that in a world where the paranormal conclusively exists, we can collect enough evidence to show it exists.

Yes, I agree.

What next?
 
Ever played the license plate game with your kids? Start looking for out of state plates, and you will see them everywhere. Start looking for a specific state, and you'll find them.

One thing you can do is to keep a license plate journal, and make a special point of looking at license plates as you walk past cars in any parking lot (I don't recommend doing this while driving! ;)). See how many out-of-state plates you find on a daily basis, which states, and roughly how far from your area they traveled.

I have DATA. Real, live data. See the attachment. Click on it for a larger image.

Just for ***** and giggles, I started to keep track of the out-of-state license plates I saw. My rules are:
- No trucks
- No RVs
- I have to be in my car when the plate is spotted
- No trolling in college or university parking lots

As you can see via the California entry that I started on August 23rd of last year. As you can also see, I spotted a NM plate about 11 days later.

I acknowledge that I live in a tourist trap but the coverage period is over last winter which is serious downtime for tourism here.

I think, Fudbucker, that your spotting of NM plates should not be considered all that unusual. You've stated that you are in an out-of-the-way place. Can you be more specific.

Plates.jpg
 
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I think there's a difference between assigning personal meaning to unpredictable events in our lives (Castaneda's 'affirmations from the world around us'), and believing those unpredictable events are intentionally and purposefully directed at us.

I suspect most people regularly do the former - thinking how lucky they are when something beneficial happens, or how unlucky they are when something detrimental happens, or attaching some personal meaning to coincidences, unusual events, and so-on. I think it's a natural tendency.

Religious and spiritual types may see intentional agency in these things, but the rest of us know rationally that it's just blind chance at work, and as this thread has shown, a little critical thought should suggest that it isn't reasonable to believe the universe is arranged purposefully around our individual interests and concerns.
 
For a little entertainment, google: What person has won the most lotteries.
Oddly, while i scrolled the site choices, there was something about a helicopter on one of those sites. Well, last night when i was on the Malaysia jet thread in our Social & Current Events subforum, a poster responded to my post to say only a helicopter could be put down in one piece out in that rough ocean. And its the fact i pondered about that person`s post regarding the helicopter. So, am i entitled to play woo music now? Lol.
Coincidences of all sorts i have a hunch we all categorize them into say 3 groups, in our heads: a plain old, non-spectacular coincidence...or a fairly decent coincidence, but nothing to start bowing before God about... and the absolutely astounding coincidence where you think there is no way anything short of the spirit world could be responsible, and maybe you should start taking up believing in God again.
 
Scientists who study these things are idiots with no idea how to set up a controlled experiment.

Not idiots, just not looking out for the right things. That's why professional sceptics are often magicians, rather than scientists - they know what to look for. That's why experiments which have demonstrated psi ability have fallen apart once a magician had a look.

There's a documentary I once saw with James Randi (I believe it was the same one where he tested about 10 dowsers by burying pipes under a large "bridge" made of dirt in Australia, if that helps anybody identify it) in which there is a scientist who makes the same assumption that you make - that because he's a scientist he'll be good at spotting trickery. Randi absolutely gobsmacks him by demonstrating "impossible" spoon-bending in front of him. The scientist had no idea how he'd done it, not because he's stupid, but because he's not a magician.
 
LOL, so psi-experiments are the equivalent of magic shows? There's no way to test psi abilities without eliminating the possibility of cheating? Are efficacious drug trials also examples of cheating?

OK, whatever. Scientists who study these things are idiots with no idea how to set up a controlled experiment. If someone demonstrates a psi-ability, it's either phenomenal luck, or cheating.

Got ya, this forum is a joke, and good luck with that.

Fudbucker, this is a serious question: what did you expect when you posted here? Slightly different question, what were you hoping for? Please answer.
 
Fudbucker, this is a serious question: what did you expect when you posted here? Slightly different question, what were you hoping for? Please answer.

I'd be interested inthat answer too. But in the OP, he says he was just wondering if anyone else had similar experiences--somaybe that's all he "expected"--a poll of experiences.

I sympathize at what he perceives as close-mindedness. In another thread i mentioned that if I saw Bigfoot in some remote location with very little chance of hoax, and if my mental health was decent, I would have no problem 'believing' my senses despite not having strict scientific proof. At some point, you have to trust your own instincts and senses--as has been pointed out, nothing is 100% certain. Yet, many here would conclude they 'must' be insane, or that a hoax no matter how improbable has occurred, because there is no 'evidence' that BF exists.

But the OP here is IMO slipping into the very trap he rails against. He says up front "It was probably a coincidence" and then goes on for pages defending the idea that it might be paranormal by invoking examples of trillion to one odds. He seems unwilling--close-minded, if you will, to simply accept the more logical explanation--not only that, he seems unwilling to put his proposition to the test (as others have pointed out, looking for the plate owners, doing the stats). You can't have it both ways.
 
But the OP here is IMO slipping into the very trap he rails against. He says up front "It was probably a coincidence" and then goes on for pages defending the idea that it might be paranormal by invoking examples of trillion to one odds. He seems unwilling--close-minded, if you will, to simply accept the more logical explanation--not only that, he seems unwilling to put his proposition to the test (as others have pointed out, looking for the plate owners, doing the stats). You can't have it both ways.

Agree, but I think you actually can have it both ways. In fact, preserving the sense of mystery is essential to make the incident meaningful and important. I don't believe he wants to find out. Even trying to find out pollutes the mystical flavor - treating them as if such thing were capable of analysis. And what happens if it turns out to be something mundane?
 
Yesterday my family and I driving on a four-lane highway in Georgia for a little over an hour, and since I wasn't driving, I amused myself by noting out-of-state plates. I saw two New Mexico plates, oddly within about ten minutes of each other. I also saw Minnesota, California, and even one Alaska plate, among others. FWIW, we weren't on a major route to Florida.
 
Fudbucker,

I'm just checking to see if everything's OK. I re-read your original post and realized that your "obsessing about death" might not be an entirely academic obsession. If you are in a dark place and if this thread (or my posts in it) have contributed to that darkness, I apologize. I hope all's well.

Ward
 
OK, whatever. Scientists who study these things are idiots with no idea how to set up a controlled experiment.

That's pretty much what happened in the Project Alpha experiments: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Alpha

It's not that the scientists running the experiments were stupid, they just didn't think of all the ways someone could cheat (or trusted that cheating wouldn't occur). It doesn't necessarily mean they weren't experts in their fields.
 

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