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Weird Experience

That's pretty much what happened in the Project Alpha experiments: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Alpha

It's not that the scientists running the experiments were stupid, they just didn't think of all the ways someone could cheat (or trusted that cheating wouldn't occur). It doesn't necessarily mean they weren't experts in their fields.

One of the failures in imagination they made was not conceiving of how much effort someone will put into fooling someone else. I have been working (on and off) for the better part of a year to learn a particular coin sleight. The function is to convince the audience I have placed a coin in my hand when I have not.

When it becomes performance worthy, all of my effort will be invisible. That's the way I want it. All of the effort is expended to make something unnatural appear ordinary, and hence, invisible and unquestioned. If I were to say, "Now watch, I'm going to do something I've spent a year learning..." Well, that would entirely defeat the purpose.

The scientists cannot be faulted for not seeing what is never shown - the concealed expertise.
 
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I believe it was Penn Gillette who said that there's two types of magic effect - the first is so mind-bogglingly simple that nobody would ever think of it (say, distracting someone and bending a spoon with your hands while they're not looking), and the second is so complicated, elaborate and/or expensive to achieve that nobody would ever believe that someone would go to so much trouble to achieve such a small thing.
 
I believe it was Penn Gillette who said that there's two types of magic effect - the first is so mind-bogglingly simple that nobody would ever think of it (say, distracting someone and bending a spoon with your hands while they're not looking), and the second is so complicated, elaborate and/or expensive to achieve that nobody would ever believe that someone would go to so much trouble to achieve such a small thing.
David Blaine has apparently worked up a combination of the two types - sticking a long needle through his hand or his arm (bicep). The mind-bogglingly simple part is that it isn't a trick - he really sticks the needle through. The complicated, elaborate part is that he's obsessively been working on it for years, slowly creating a fistula with larger and larger needles, and carefully avoiding blood vessels & nerves. Now he can do it with studied insouciance and no blood loss - like an extreme piercing.
 
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David Blaine has apparently worked up a combination of the two types - sticking a long needle through his hand or his arm (bicep). The mind-bogglingly simple part is that it isn't a trick - he really sticks the needle through. The complicated, elaborate part is that he's obsessively been working on it for years, slowly creating a fistula with larger and larger needles, and carefully avoiding blood vessels & nerves. Now he can do it with studied insouciance and no blood loss - like an extreme piercing.

ew.
 
I've been obsessing about death lately. My wife is very spiritual, and yesterday she said, "Why don't you ask my mom (deceased, lived with us for years) for help? I know you're a skeptic, but it doesn't cost you anything". My wife then told me she gets signs from her mom all the time, mostly in the form of seeing license plates, particularly New Mexico. It has something to do with some experiences they had in New Mexico. I rolled my eyes (pareidolia, and all that).

But I said, OK, and mentally asked for a sign yesterday morning. A few hours later, we're walking out of a theater, and we walk down the wrong row of cars, looking for my car, and of course, there's a New Mexico plate. My wife gets all excited, and even I think it's a little strange, because we don't see them much in California (they're bright yellow plates). So we go down another row of cars and there's another New Mexico plate. And this is literally hours after she told me about the license plate thing.

I could laugh it off as coincidence (and no doubt anyone reading this probably is), but it was very strange. I commute an hour a day on the freeway and can't recall seeing a New Mexico plate in a long time. It's a small state, doesn't border California, I live in the sticks, and it's rare to see any non-California plate.

Anyway, I thought it was strange. Does anyone else have experiences like that?

bbm

If I read this correctly, since Fudbucker's wife sees (mostly) NM plates, then the weird event is about Fudbucker himself seeing two NM plates a few hours after mentally asking for a sign. In other words, it's more about the timing than the number of NM plates in his town, since seeing something all the time wouldn't make seeing two more a rare occurrence.

But, in order to conclude that seeing the plates was more than coincidence, wouldn't you also have to believe that;

1. When people die, they continue to exist somewhere else (a place or energy state of some kind),

2. That the place they go to allows them to monitor the living, and

3. They acquire an ability to influence the actions of the living?

Did Fudbucker explain this place/state or these abilities? I apologize if he did and I missed it.

The above conditions needed to support this claim is a deal breaker for me.

Scordatura
 
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... As has been pointed out to you already, a single data point (someone winning the lottery) happens on a weekly basis.


Like I keep saying: If someone claimed to be able to predict it once and actually did. That is a starting point to study that person to see how consistent they were. It is not 'proof' of anything other than that sometimes people win the lottery.
That is when the real science starts not when it concludes.

A good point, Stray Cat, and one that's not immediately obvious.






Fudbucker,

I'm just checking to see if everything's OK. I re-read your original post and realized that your "obsessing about death" might not be an entirely academic obsession. If you are in a dark place and if this thread (or my posts in it) have contributed to that darkness, I apologize. I hope all's well.

Ward

I'll add my best wishes to yours, wardenclyffe.
Take care, Fudbucker.
 
bbm

If I read this correctly, since Fudbucker's wife sees (mostly) NM plates, then the weird event is about Fudbucker himself seeing two NM plates a few hours after mentally asking for a sign. In other words, it's more about the timing than the number of NM plates in his town, since seeing something all the time wouldn't make seeing two more a rare occurrence.

My wife never sees them, actually. Once in a blue moon on the freeway. I'm sure I've seen them in the past, but as I said, it's a rare occurance.

But, in order to conclude that seeing the plates was more than coincidence, wouldn't you also have to believe that;

1. When people die, they continue to exist somewhere else (a place or energy state of some kind),

2. That the place they go to allows them to monitor the living, and

3. They acquire an ability to influence the actions of the living?

Yes, those would have to be live possibilities if one were to be open to the non-coincidence explanation of what happened. However, none of those three represent extraordinary claims to me. I don't know what happens when we die, no one does, and there are wide-spread phenomena such as death-bed visions, NDE's, and massive numbers of anecdotal accounts of poltergeist activity and other strange phenomena. Perhaps these can all be explained on a materialistic model, but many scientists are unconvinced so far, and research is ongoing in all these areas.

Did Fudbucker explain this place/state or these abilities? I apologize if he did and I missed it.

The above conditions needed to support this claim is a deal breaker for me.

Scordatura

Fair enough, but as there is serious research ongoing in these areas, I think you're jumping to a hasty conclusion by ruling out a supernatural explanation. I have had a few strange experiences, and people I trust, who have nothing to gain by lying, have reported even stranger experiences. These experiences are hard to reconcile with strict materialism.
 
Fudbucker,

I'm just checking to see if everything's OK. I re-read your original post and realized that your "obsessing about death" might not be an entirely academic obsession. If you are in a dark place and if this thread (or my posts in it) have contributed to that darkness, I apologize. I hope all's well.

Ward

Well, here's what happened: OCD runs in my family, and sometimes I get a thought stuck in my head that won't go away. I'm a healthy 38 year old, but I started to obsess about dying and the thought started gathering momentum. I've been an atheist/agnostic all my life and the thought of non-existence after I die really put a scare in me (I was totally high on weed at the time too, which I'm sure didn't help).

I've been through this before, so I went to the doc and they put me on Zoloft. That was a very bad mistake. I had a horrible reaction to it, and if my wife hadn't been with me over the weekend, I would have either called the hospital or done something more drastic. I've never felt that bad in my life and wouldn't wish it on anyone. I can see how some people have killed themselves on Zoloft. I stopped taking it and started Prozac today (which worked for me in the past), and I may do some therapy.

I'm touched by your concern. Hopefully, the Prozac (and time) will do the trick. I'm still obsessing, but I'm functioning at least.
 
And a few more coincidences have happened:

1. After I saw the New Mexico plates, I asked my wife what other "signs" she gets from her deceased mother. She said the Carlsbad Street Fair was her and her mother's favorite event. Two days later, a big Jeep is in front of me and, sure enough, has a Carlsbad license plate cover. I wasn't even checking for anything like this. It was staring me in the face at a stoplight. OK, so kind of strange. Carlsbad is in the same state, but about three hours drive from where I live.

2. And this happened today:

I went to the doctor and told him about my horrible episode with Zoloft. He gave me a scrip for Prozac, and being a born again Christian (the doc, not me), told me I might as well pray to God, it can't do any harm. So what the Hell, I pray for a sign. I'll humor the doc, since I could tell he felt terrible over my adverse reaction to Zoloft.

Now, a little history: I went though an obsessive episode like this about 15 years ago, where I couldn't stop thinking about dying. A therapist at the time really helped me out (along with Prozac). When the episode was over, I stopped going to see him and we went our separate ways.

Back to today: I was dropping off my Prozac scrip at the local Costco today, and the person in front of me looks strangely familiar. It's the same therapist who helped me out so long ago with this exact same issue. We talked for awhile, and he said that while he doesn't take new patients (He's 70 now), he does help out old patients and gave me his number. There are approx. 300,000 people within 20 miles of this Costco.

I'm having a hard time chalking up what happened to coincidence.
 
I'm having a hard time chalking up what happened to coincidence.

What do you think is the most likely explanation: some entity manipulated various cars and people to cross paths with you, or that the events were, in fact, simple coincidences which you noticed because you could attach a meaning to them.
 
A long time ago, I was having a schizophrenic relapse. At the time, I thought I was God's messenger. I asked God to give me a sign that I was chosen to be his spokesman.

Next thing, a car passed by with the registration plate of TT-MO. In my native language, it basically translates to "You wish, You're a d***head, and up yours"
 
And a few more coincidences have happened:

1. After I saw the New Mexico plates, I asked my wife what other "signs" she gets from her deceased mother. She said the Carlsbad Street Fair was her and her mother's favorite event. Two days later, a big Jeep is in front of me and, sure enough, has a Carlsbad license plate cover. I wasn't even checking for anything like this. It was staring me in the face at a stoplight. OK, so kind of strange. Carlsbad is in the same state, but about three hours drive from where I live.

2. And this happened today:

I went to the doctor and told him about my horrible episode with Zoloft. He gave me a scrip for Prozac, and being a born again Christian (the doc, not me), told me I might as well pray to God, it can't do any harm. So what the Hell, I pray for a sign. I'll humor the doc, since I could tell he felt terrible over my adverse reaction to Zoloft.

Now, a little history: I went though an obsessive episode like this about 15 years ago, where I couldn't stop thinking about dying. A therapist at the time really helped me out (along with Prozac). When the episode was over, I stopped going to see him and we went our separate ways.

Back to today: I was dropping off my Prozac scrip at the local Costco today, and the person in front of me looks strangely familiar. It's the same therapist who helped me out so long ago with this exact same issue. We talked for awhile, and he said that while he doesn't take new patients (He's 70 now), he does help out old patients and gave me his number. There are approx. 300,000 people within 20 miles of this Costco.

I'm having a hard time chalking up what happened to coincidence.[/QUOTE]

Surely bumping in to your old doctor at any point during which you were having such obsessive thoughts would have seemed like an unbelievable coincidence? A coincidence, sure, but not one with odds as long as you are assigning to it.
 
What do you think is the most likely explanation: some entity manipulated various cars and people to cross paths with you, or that the events were, in fact, simple coincidences which you noticed because you could attach a meaning to them.

The license plates are, perhaps, simple coincidences. Running into my old therapist who helped me with this same episode, and whom I haven't seen in over a decade, goes beyond "simple coincidence".

ETA: a simple coincidence would be running into Joe Schmoe, after not seeing him for a long time. What makes this non-simple, is that not only were the odds long, but the result was extremely meaningful to me- people are telling me to pray for a sign (yes, I know how silly that sounds here), I do, and I run into my old therapist who just happened to help me get over this exact same crisis 15 years ago? After all these years, I run into that guy? Are you kidding me? Maybe coincidence, but certainly it goes beyond simple.

But I have no explanation. Only that it's extremely odd. If there is a supernatural realm, I don't see why people couldn't be manipulated on a subconscious level. We just would have no causal mechanism to explain it. There is no reason to rule it out a priori, unless you want to suggest there's a logical contradiction there.

Nor am I going to rule it out a posteriori for the reasons I gave: NDE's, deathbed visions, and accounts of paranormal activity from believable witnesses are so widespread, I don't think we're justified in assigning an extremely low prior probability to supernaturalism. Perhaps a low prior probability, but what would the justification be for assigning an extremely low probability?
 
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It seems I messed up the formatting of my previous post, and chopped out my answer to these:

Perhaps these can all be explained on a materialistic model, but many scientists are unconvinced so far, and research is ongoing in all these areas.

I believe the word "many" is overstating things by several orders of magnitude.

1. After I saw the New Mexico plates, I asked my wife what other "signs" she gets from her deceased mother. She said the Carlsbad Street Fair was her and her mother's favorite event. Two days later, a big Jeep is in front of me and, sure enough, has a Carlsbad license plate cover. I wasn't even checking for anything like this. It was staring me in the face at a stoplight. OK, so kind of strange. Carlsbad is in the same state, but about three hours drive from where I live.

The licence plates are something you were amazed by the coincidence of because it happened within hours of your wife mentioning them, and because there were two of them. This was 2 days later, and there was just the one. And isn't New Mexico more than 3 hours' drive from where you live?

The license plates are, perhaps, simple coincidences. Running into my old therapist who helped me with this same episode, and whom I haven't seen in over a decade, goes beyond "simple coincidence".

Running in to him would have been an amazing coincidence when your troubles started up again, too. Or if it had happened right after you first saw your current doctor. Or after your wife had mentioned the possibility of you taking up therapy again. Or after you'd thought about taking up therapy again. Or when you were given your first prescription. Or running in to his wife. Or running in to another patient you used to see in the waiting room. Or running in to a friend you had at that time who you've not seen since. Or finding a picture of the dog you owned when you were having therapy. Or seeing 2 more New Mexico licence plates.

And so on. There's any number of things you can attach significance to after the fact.

What makes this non-simple, is that not only were the odds long, but the result was extremely meaningful to me- people are telling me to pray for a sign (yes, I know how silly that sounds here), I do, and I run into my old therapist who just happened to help me get over this exact same crisis 15 years ago? After all these years, I run into that guy? Are you kidding me? Maybe coincidence, but certainly it goes beyond simple.

And this is why assigning meaning to events after the event is the wrong way to go about things.

Let's say that you're rolling 10 ordinary, fair dice. Then you add all the pips together, and look at the number. Is it meaningful? Well, let's see.

Say you get 10, well that's the lowest number it's possible to get, so that must be meaningful. 60 is the highest, so that must be meaningful. 11 is the lowest number that's got identical digits and it's the lowest prime. 25 is the only odd number where the last digit is the square root of the number. 36 is the only even number where the last digit is the square root of the number. 16 is the lowest cube. 55 is the highest number that's got identical digits. 35 is slap-bang in the middle. We all know about the significance of 13. And of 23.

And so on.

The point is, if you attach meaning to something after the event, then you can attach meaning to anything you like, and everything can have meaning.

Or, to put it another way - it's like the Birthday Problem. Have you heard of this one? It's a probability problem that seems absolutely wrong, but is 100% correct. If there is a room full of strangers, then how many people need to be in that room to make it more likely than not that two of them share a birthday? I'll spoiler the answer, but genuinely take a guess before looking:.

23


Seems low, doesn't it? Seems like it should be more unlikely that two strangers share a birthday. But the maths works out.

There are two points here. The first is that humans are very bad at accurately assessing probabilities. The second is that part of where people go wrong in thinking about this is in not realising that it's not two specific people or 1 specific birthday, but any two people and any day of the year.

And that's how this ties in to your example. You seeing your old therapist isn't a specific person or a specific birthday, it's any person and any birthday. The coincidence could have been any number of things other than meeting your old therapist, and it would still have seemed significant to you. It's not one thing, but one of a large number of things that could have occurred which would have seemed significant to you.
 
My wife never sees them, actually. Once in a blue moon on the freeway. I'm sure I've seen them in the past, but as I said, it's a rare occurance.



Yes, those would have to be live possibilities if one were to be open to the non-coincidence explanation of what happened. However, none of those three represent extraordinary claims to me. I don't know what happens when we die, no one does, and there are wide-spread phenomena such as death-bed visions, NDE's, and massive numbers of anecdotal accounts of poltergeist activity and other strange phenomena. Perhaps these can all be explained on a materialistic model, but many scientists are unconvinced so far, and research is ongoing in all these areas.





Fair enough, but as there is serious research ongoing in these areas, I think you're jumping to a hasty conclusion by ruling out a supernatural explanation. I have had a few strange experiences, and people I trust, who have nothing to gain by lying, have reported even stranger experiences. These experiences are hard to reconcile with strict materialism.


Hi Fudbucker,

Thanks for clarifying. I took the bolded part of my message [ My wife then told me she gets signs from her mom all the time, mostly in the form of seeing license plates, particularly New Mexico. ] to mean that your wife received signs from her dead mother frequently (“all the time”), in the form of seeing NM license plates.

As for the rest, after reading many posts in the different forums here I've found that nearly every person claiming to have knowledge about the paranormal says exactly the same thing as you do: that they, along with reputable people, have witnessed the event. They want me to accept their claim based only on their word. A big problem (for me) is that in order to do that I would have to believe all of them, even when their claims conflict with each other.

One woman says psychics are fakes but the voice of her dead father she hears within audio recordings is real. She also says demons, in the form of sea creatures, have attacked her and her family. Another person says a psychic is real because he told her that her grandmother owned a pair of slippers.

Yet another person claims an apparition gave them a mysterious key when they spent the night at a bed and breakfast that doesn't exist. And then there are all the people claiming to have seen Bigfoot, or a UFO.

They all want me to believe them because they said so and they have witnesses. And they all expect me to choose their claim as genuine and discard all other explanations that don't agree with theirs. It's reasonable of me to ask for more compelling evidence before I accept one's claim, yet when I do, I'm told every time that I'm just being closed-minded.

If I had the ability to “know” the truth based on anecdotes alone, I'd be off writing my application for the million dollar prize instead of this post.

Scordatura
 
It seems I messed up the formatting of my previous post, and chopped out my answer to these:



I believe the word "many" is overstating things by several orders of magnitude.

Maybe so, but the number of people who believe something, of course, has nothing to do with whether it's true or not. And in defense of my point, I believe something like 30% of scientists believe in God, which would constitute "many". And there is research going on in the areas I talked about, and certainly not every scientist doing the research is convinced in a materialistic explanation.



The licence plates are something you were amazed by the coincidence of because it happened within hours of your wife mentioning them, and because there were two of them. This was 2 days later, and there was just the one. And isn't New Mexico more than 3 hours' drive from where you live?

Yes, my wife accurately (or at least talked about) a rare event that then happened twice just hours later. It wouldn't be rational to not be surprised by that, unless my wife predicts or talks about this stuff all the time, which she doesn't.

New Mexico is several states away from California. Carlsbad, which she also talked about (and I saw a few days later), is about three hours from where I live. Not as impressive as the N.M. plates, but another "hit" for my wife.



Running in to him would have been an amazing coincidence when your troubles started up again, too. Or if it had happened right after you first saw your current doctor. Or after your wife had mentioned the possibility of you taking up therapy again. Or after you'd thought about taking up therapy again. Or when you were given your first prescription. Or running in to his wife. Or running in to another patient you used to see in the waiting room. Or running in to a friend you had at that time who you've not seen since. Or finding a picture of the dog you owned when you were having therapy. Or seeing 2 more New Mexico licence plates.

I see what you're saying here, but it doesn't ring true. The last time this happened to me was 15 years ago. I've moved three times since then, I've gotten married, had a kid, etc. I have almost no mementos from that time. I never met the therapist's family. The therapist, himself, is the best reminder of that time in my life, and out of hundreds of thousands of possible people, I run into him.

Nor was I actively looking for a "sign", or going through old things. I was just dropping off a prescription and he was literally two feet away from me. Your explanation, therefore, is not a satisfactory one. Running into my old therapist, while I happen to be going through an identical crisis, is exceedingly strange, and while there are other "strange" events that could also fit the bill, none would carry the relevance that has, and nothing else strange happened that day.



And so on. There's any number of things you can attach significance to after the fact.



And this is why assigning meaning to events after the event is the wrong way to go about things.

Not at all!

If you rolled a six-sided die and got 66666666666666666666666666666666's, you would certainly attach meaning to the event, after it happened. You would, rightly, conclude the die is loaded. We attach meaning to events after they happen all the time.

Take the fine-tuning problem in physics. The values of the physical constants are what they are. Yet they are so exceedingly coincidental that multiverse theory is invoked to explain it away. This is a perfect example of meaning being attached to an event after it's already happened.

When very strange results are obtained (like a supposedly RNG that spits out 3.14, or someone winning a lottery ten times in a row), explanations have to be offered. The stranger the result, the less likely the "chance" hypothesis is true.

Let's say that you're rolling 10 ordinary, fair dice. Then you add all the pips together, and look at the number. Is it meaningful? Well, let's see.

Say you get 10, well that's the lowest number it's possible to get, so that must be meaningful. 60 is the highest, so that must be meaningful. 11 is the lowest number that's got identical digits and it's the lowest prime. 25 is the only odd number where the last digit is the square root of the number. 36 is the only even number where the last digit is the square root of the number. 16 is the lowest cube. 55 is the highest number that's got identical digits. 35 is slap-bang in the middle. We all know about the significance of 13. And of 23.

And so on.

The point is, if you attach meaning to something after the event, then you can attach meaning to anything you like, and everything can have meaning.

Not at all. If I roll 10 ordinary fair dice and get 3.141592653, I'm going to conclude someone messed with the dice. Don't tell me you would assume they were fair dice after getting a result like that. You wouldn't, would you?

Or, to put it another way - it's like the Birthday Problem. Have you heard of this one? It's a probability problem that seems absolutely wrong, but is 100% correct. If there is a room full of strangers, then how many people need to be in that room to make it more likely than not that two of them share a birthday? I'll spoiler the answer, but genuinely take a guess before looking:.

23


Seems low, doesn't it? Seems like it should be more unlikely that two strangers share a birthday. But the maths works out.

I'm sure it does, but let me ask you what you would conclude if everyone in the room (50 people) all had the same birthday? I would not believe it was chance, as the odds of that being true are astronomically low. Would you believe it was chance?
 

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