Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

[L.Y.S.]

That's what you get by invading: Tide of opinion turns against Russia in Ukraine’s east

More tidbits about the Russian protester busloads:


This is an interesting idea:



More from Donetsk: Ukraine crisis: separatist in Donetsk proclaims 'people's government'

The general sentiment of eastern Ukrainians is that they don't want Russia to separate the country by force. Hence why the Russians have pulled back to their military bases. There is still reasonable support for Russian integration in eastern Ukraine.

Your sentence hints that most of the protestors are genuine, even if a few were paid shills and provocateurs. Sounds eerily similar to the Euromaidan demonstrations if you ask me.

 

[Darth Rotor]

I'm rooting for an inexplicable wave of Nazi mass suicides.

They are not in a bunker in Berlin, it is not 1945.

snip ... Russia no longer fears the West: it's not because, as Republicans assert, that Obama is weak, but that Europe is too heavily tied to Russia economically.

Indeed. W didn't exactly impress on the Russia policy thing his own self.
*cut to Ray Charles singing Georgia on my Mind

The point remains strategically Europe is far less dependent on Russian gas than Russia is on the West's money.

Aye.

Putin's been humiliated in Ukraine.

Not seeing humiliated. Not seeing it at all. This dog and pony show is far from over.

China has decided it does not have a dog in this fight.

That is due to its being in the stew pot.

Except the problem is that those Russian troops aren't on their leased naval bases any more, but instead are on Ukrainian soil, surrounding Ukrainian military bases to block access in and out and seizing ferry ports.

Saw an interesting video today of a Ukranian air base incident. Russians firing over heads of a few hundred unarmed Ukranian servicemen. The two commanders seemed to be talking something over, and trying to keep their men from doing something stupid.

NATO is really really not on a cold war footing at this point.

Too busy bickering with each other.

1)Russia isn't a superpower any more.

Russia is a serious power, which is sufficient.

2)Russia has enough missiles to overwhelm anything the US can afford to build in any case.

Yep.

As for Ukraine arguably part of the problem is most of the west doesn't have a meaningful plan with regards to Ukraine.

Here's the plan: watch Ukraine go in to bankruptcy, as Greece was going to do.

No it is launching an invasion in breach of guarantees is has previously signed.

We have a winner! Somebody noticed.

You think John Kerry managed to plan a coup?

Ya gotta admit, that's funny: someone thinking that.

My guess is that reports of Putin's lack of sanity are exaggerated.

Yep.

This crisis will almost certainly result in Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO, putting them 300km from Moscow and encircling Russia's richest lands.

I bet a case of beer against.
Timeline five years, or ten years. Which is it?

In this case, Putin isn't insane, Merkel just has an intellectual blind spot that prevents her from understanding him.

Yep.

The point being that Putin's reactions cannot be categorized as those of an evil villain caricature.

Yep. I don't need Cohen's prose to grasp that.

Putin is clearly not a rational actor.

Yes he is. Rational. A bit of a jerk, and ruthless, but rational.

Except Russia is engaging in some pretty extreme imperialism here.

I don't think you grasp what extreme imperialism entails. Here's one example.
Mongol invasions of Syria
They were taking over Syria for an empire based in Mongolia in an era before powered transport existed.

Vlad is sending troops into an adjacent territory that was not long ago part of his country. Not extreme. European politics, as usual, for about 1500 years.

And as for this tidbit ...

... you're the one who is completely sidestepping the bigger issue here which is the NATO brand of cold war politics which it continues to use against Russia despite well the end of the Cold War. Let's side step the deliberate encirclement of Russia with hostile governments and the anti-missile defense system that the US wants in place in Eastern Europe, you know, the one that is a real threat to world peace ...

As Ron White once said: you can't fix stupid. I am not going to bother, and applaud those of you who gave it the old college try.

 

[Childlike Empress]

*giggles*

Just in:

[338] Abby Martin: I Stand by Everything I Said and the Corporate Media Missed the Point

Anybody of the specialists wanna invoke conspiracy? Just a bit too smooth, isn't it?

You go, Abby!

Don't forget to click the link in my sig to watch a few episodes of the amazing "Breaking the Set" show BEFORE PUTIN DELETES THEM!!!!!!1

 

[trustbutverify]

lmao you know what you said there is Bull. the United States is desperately hanging on to its superpower status amidst Russian resurgence and China's growing clout. the missile shield system in eastern europe, the increasing presence in South China sea and Africa, the destabilization in the middle east and unfriendly countries. You're the only one who believes syria wasn't targeted either. US almost bombed the **** out of it on fabricated pretext.

Any estimate for when the US will finally lose their superpower status? And do you think the world will be improved when they do?

 

[trustbutverify]

. Not seeing humiliated. Not seeing it at all. This dog and pony show is far from over.

I am seeing humiliated. In fact, I think it has contributed heavily towards what started out as an aggressive approach; moderated after international reaction came in hotter and heavier than expected:

Leaving a man who ordered the murder of dozens of protesters in power even temporarily was a bitter pill to swallow, but it had tacit Russian support because it saved President Vladimir Putin’s face. However, the crowds on Independence Square refused to accept the deal, and Yanukovych was forced to flee.

Parliament subsequently ratified his removal, but it was the mob, and especially the right-wing fighting groups like Praviy Sektor, who led, and the leadership who followed. Putin was humiliated, and he was given the pretext for claiming that Ukraine had fallen to a “fascist coup” as a justification, however flimsy, for rejecting the legitimacy of the new Ukrainian government.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Ukraine's Bleak Future

An article written by the Chicago Times about the most divisive issues Ukraine faces. Ukraine is a country which is even more corrupt that Russia. Apparently both sides of Ukraine's political spectrum are equally corrupt.

An interesting article for anyone who cares for the read.

 

[spin0]

I think all of the saber-rattling was to achieve one aim, and one aim only. For Russia to get Ukraine to back off with closer integration to the EU and NATO. I'm pretty sure that this has been at least semi-successful.

I agree regarding NATO. After the dust has settled I think Ukraine will be a militarily non-aligned country.

But how has Russia been successful regarding closer integration to the EU? Nothing in Russia's invasion has made Ukraine to back off from the Association Agreement with the EU.

Though Russia's use of blunt force might've cemented even more sentiment against Russia.

Yup, while I have no poll data to show it, I think it's safe to assume that with Russia's invasion its popularity among Ukrainians has gone down.

 

[L.Y.S.]

I agree regarding NATO. After the dust has settled I think Ukraine will be a militarily non-aligned country.

But how has Russia been successful regarding closer integration to the EU? Nothing in Russia's invasion has made Ukraine to back off from the Association Agreement with the EU.

Russia will most likely begin requesting repayment on Ukraine's debt. Ukraine will take quite the beating. 15 Billion Euros over the next two years is decent, but will hardly make up for the difference if Russia begins to turn on the heat in Ukraine.

Yup, while I have no poll data to show it, I think it's safe to assume that with Russia's invasion its popularity among Ukrainians has gone down.

I suspect there that there wasn't a dramatic decline for or against Russia, rather it potentially solidified previous positions. People who were slightly against Russia are probably very against Russia. People slightly for Russia have become more pro-Russian. Massive changes for or against, are likely small if not negligible.

 

[spin0]

The general sentiment of eastern Ukrainians is that they don't want Russia to separate the country by force.

With 74.2% in Feb poll the general sentiment of Eastern Ukrainians is that they don't want to unite to Russia.

There is still reasonable support for Russian integration in eastern Ukraine.

It's a minority opinion even in Eastern Ukraine: as per latest Feb poll uniting with Russia has only 25.8% support there.

Generally in Ukraine support for that has been on a long term downward trend, and it's a minority opinion even among the Ukrainians who identify as ethnic Russians. The support is strongest among the Communists and Party of Regions supporters. Correlation with age is very strong and support is by far strongest among people over 55, with very little support from the young.

 

[The Don]

Ukraine's Bleak Future

An article written by the Chicago Times about the most divisive issues Ukraine faces. Ukraine is a country which is even more corrupt that Russia. Apparently both sides of Ukraine's political spectrum are equally corrupt.

An interesting article for anyone who cares for the read.

Unfortunately I'd have to register - shame.

 

[angrysoba]

Putin is clearly not a rational actor. He has gone clear over the moon which makes him scary. He'll take Russia down with him as he tries to make his delusions reality.
Remember when you fight crazy people you always need to bring much more firepower than normal because they fight in ways you can't predict.

Putin has been completely isolated from all dissenting opinion for a long time now. This almost always leads to a leader becoming unhinged. The "mad dictator" isn't a lazy slur it is a pragmatic description of what almost always happens in these situations.

You have merely presented more opinion on top of previous assertions. This is not evidence. And when you said "you always need to bring more firepower than normal, what are you now suggesting? I hope you're not getting any crazy ideas.

Besides, we really don't know enough about how isolated he is from dissenting opinion. From my viewpoint it appears that Putin is one of those best-have-them-on-the-inside-pissing-out-than-on-the-outside-pissing-in type of people, apart from those who he has jailed or murdered, naturally.

That one was the most outrageous, but I doubt it was much over the top, if any. The rest are entirely valid.

UNSC procedure prevents nations from voting in some matters that concern them. Not all of them, though.

I don't see the problem with that. Ukraine talking about developing nuclear weapons in response to US, UK and Russia cheating them of their legal arsenal has major implications for Iran. Namely that any security guarantees will be null and void when convenient.

Ukraine has been invaded by a nation in posession of the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world. There isn't a clearer example of a legitemate need for nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Ukraine gave up it's arsenal in exchange of security guarantees, and one of the signatories was the invader, the other two didn't stop it. It's debatable whether this would win them friends, but they currently sorely lack actual friends anyway. That's assuming the diplomacy in the background is as limited as it looks, which may not be the case. Putin has claimed he has no intention of annexing Crimea, which might have been a result of some quiet threats.

McHrozni

Still doesn't make an imagined Ukrainian threat to stockpile nuclear weapons any less laughable. In fact, the idea that Ukraine will suddenly become a nuclear power is crazy talk. And if you are worried about Iran now feeling less trusting towards western promises of security in return for abandoning its nuclear weapons programme, then I wouldn't worry about it. There was never going to be any trust there anyway and Plan B is just to return to threats and sanctions.

Besides, for those who are saying that Putin must have been crazy to go into Crimea, probably should re-read what they were saying on the first page of this thread, which was that south and eastern Ukraine will probably embrace Putin.

Ukraine has a problem in the form of a substantial Russian minority in the east and south. A very large percentage of those people would prefer a union with Russia or Russia-serving Ukraine. It's an offshoot of Soviet colonialism, which offers no good solutions. I hope for the best, but fear the worst.

McHrozni

Not so much Russophilic as outright Russian. They colonized the area with Russians when the Crimean Tatars "left for Siberia on their own free will" if you know what I mean.
That said, there weren't any Lenin statues in Lviv either.

It's one of the problems Ukraine has - a substantial Russian minority, who apparently favors servitude to Russia by a substantial margin. Add in a few billion carrots from Kremlin, plus it's hard stick, and you have yourself a major problem.

McHrozni

Well, the piece at least allows some doubt for the veracity of the report, which is initially what I doubted, although I doubt the situation it is purportedly based on too, which is that Putin is now a loony.

A fun to read assessment of Putin's appearance today: Putin's Press Conference Proved Merkel Right: He's Lost His Mind

I think this scenario is very plausible:

I don't and I turn out to be correct.

btw, for those who question Putin's sanity without being able to type Mrs. Merkel's name correctly: The NYT "leak" was refuted by her Chancelleresses' press agents as correctly translated in this article which contains some other interesting information.

Anyway, it seems incredibly unlikely that anyone's going to go to war on behalf of Ukraine. Britain and the rest of the EU don't really have any muscle anyway, and I think the US is trying to avoid that kind of thing.

However, my good professor suggests that travel bans to the Russian middle class may be a good idea. I certainly know that they like their European holidays. Making things uncomfortable for the elite may make them turn against Putin.

 

[spin0]

Russia will most likely begin requesting repayment on Ukraine's debt. Ukraine will take quite the beating. 15 Billion Euros over the next two years is decent, but will hardly make up for the difference if Russia begins to turn on the heat in Ukraine.

You avoided the question. I asked: But how has Russia been successful regarding closer integration to the EU?

Because in the events I see no Russian success regarding that, not even in your wishful beating of Ukraine. How has Russia been successful? I say it hasn't been, to the contrary.

I suspect there that there wasn't a dramatic decline for or against Russia, rather it potentially solidified previous positions. People who were slightly against Russia are probably very against Russia. People slightly for Russia have become more pro-Russian. Massive changes for or against, are likely small if not negligible.

Foreign country invades, and you assume it must have only negligible effect on opinions? Get real.

 

[Childlike Empress]

However, my good professor suggests that travel bans to the Russian middle class may be a good idea. I certainly know that they like their European holidays. Making things uncomfortable for the elite may make them turn against Putin.

I watched the video you posted of his encounter with McGovern at Am-I-Good-Man. Frankly, this guy is a propagandist plain to see from the first sentence he speaks, and he's certainly not on the "political left" as he wants us to believe during the stunt. I would be careful to draw any conclusions from what he says.

Anyway, my opinion, back to more important stuff: We had collected some interesting video analysis on our wiki that are from relatively short after the events, pointing to a sniper third force (not the guys seen in front of the October Palace). One investigator complained that there's no official investigation into this.

Last night I posted the piece with the interior minister talking about a "very serious investigation" pointing to a third force, allegedly "not Ukrainian".

And now just breaking we have another leaked phone call, this time between EU Ashton and the Estonian foreign minister from last week, talking about that there "is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition" and they were shooting at both police and protesters! You can read the money quotes over at RT but the video is worth listening to in full.

The Estonian says that it's "disturbing that the new coalition [...] doesn't want to investigate what exactly happened" and Ashton says that "I think we do want to investigate" ... maybe it was her who pressured the interior minister into finally investigating?

At least we know they know (and that will likely have made the rounds since last week), and we know where they think the evidence is pointing to.

 

[angrysoba]

We had collected some interesting video analysis on our wiki that are from relatively short after the events, pointing to a sniper third force (not the guys seen in front of the October Palace). One investigator complained that there's no official investigation into this.

Last night I posted the piece with the interior minister talking about a "very serious investigation" pointing to a third force, allegedly "not Ukrainian".

And now just breaking we have another leaked phone call, this time between EU Ashton and the Estonian foreign minister from last week, talking about that there "is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition" and they were shooting at both police and protesters! You can read the money quotes over at RT but the video is worth listening to in full.

The Estonian says that it's "disturbing that the new coalition [...] doesn't want to investigate what exactly happened" and Ashton says that "I think we do want to investigate" ... maybe it was her who pressured the interior minister into finally investigating?

At least we know they know (and that will likely have made the rounds since last week), and we know where they think the evidence is pointing to.

My thoughts? (did you erase something?)

To be honest, I do not know. I do not know, for example, whether or not Ashton pressured anybody to investigate, or that there was no investigation going at the time. From what I remember, an investigation did begin, or so I thought from a BBC clip.

Hmmm...a 3rd force, "not Ukrainian"? Do you suspect the Russians are behind this?

Like I say, I really do not know. From what I understand, and from what the Estonian foreign minister was saying, it seems there is huge distrust of the new coalition. Not surprisingly; I certainly don't trust them myself given some of the CVs they have. However, if that is the case then it would not surprise me that Olga Bogomolets might point the finger at the coalition.

By the way, the foreign minister mentioned the name Poroshenko as a popular figure among the Maidan. Is this him?

I'm interested to see what will happen in the elections, if they go ahead, which is also something I fear will be postponed by somebody or another.

Anyway, I am not particularly optimistic about much that's going on there.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Yes, considering what's slipped already, how smart and many the Ukrainian people are, any dodginess from the new regime, common sense, anything ... without even hearing the audio I'm willing to believe that Ashton call happened;

Plus Putin's astute handling of the Crimea affair, offering to undo it in return for undoig what those snipers et al. did - simply return to the last sane moment! Brilliant! (or did I read the deal wrong?) Together, it's curtains for the Kiev Cabal, with popcorn moments ahead. Hopefully not too awkward.

I've been and will stay a bit behind, but I started looking at that detailed investigative article with crime scene photos and stuff ... looks very interesting. Worth a look and a new tab for Google Translate (and a bit of guessing/moving on...)

Not more to say except in video form, in a moment here...

 

[Childlike Empress]

Hmmm...a 3rd force, "not Ukrainian"? Do you suspect the Russians are behind this?

Are you joking? I suspect the interior minister could try to blame it on the Russians while the evidence leads to his political friends, like suggested in the phone call.

Yes, that's the right Poroshenko.

 

[Caustic Logic]

What happened at the interior ministry is the key to what they mean by the sponsor nation(s) of the third force. They ran the police accused of killing peaceful protesters. Didn't the Minister get sacked? If this is a new Svoboda investigation, they're saying Russia. They captured a sniper at the hotel, probably some Russian staying there they learned about and kidnapped. That plus the found orders could make a nice little package, esp. if found orders specify Russian snipers.

If there's continuity, these are the same investigators considering the masked men behind the attack outside Kiev on the 18th, the killers of their police that day, the rioters, snipers, and alleged mercenaries ... Wow. I suspect quiet deals will be sought to keep that from ever being said out loud.

ETA: I don't like the look of this:

Following the events of the past weekend, as a result of which Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovich was stripped of his powers, the Ukrainian Parliament elected opposition lawmaker Arsen Avakov as interior minister on Saturday until the formation of a new coalition government.
Avakov takes over the powerful post after lawmakers on Friday dismissed Vitaly Zakharchenko, an ally of embattled President Viktor Yanukovich, following two days of carnage in the capital, Kiev.

His is the interior ministry not looking at the forensics, apparently, but yes talking nations. Nation. Russia. He's lying. This is a ******* murder investigation, but they don't want to consider the scene and the details.

That Ashton call had better be real, or someone else better wake up soon.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Ukraine: This was NOT a Nazi Putsch

Vladimir Putin in Moscow claims the people who overthrew the Ukrainian government were in a foreign-backed conspiracy and were largely neo-Nazis. And so is the resulting government, he claims. But this claim is questioned by the relative lack of white supremacist imagery amongst the peaceful protesters on the Euro=Maidan, and by the explanations of the new post-revolution government and its supporters. These argue that in fact the new order in Kiev, while many do admire Adolf Hitler and take pride in their White heritage, is very anti-Nazi, as well as anti-Russian, anti-Communist, and a bit anti-Jew, etc. Who to believe? Try yourself and your eyes and ears. Watch now.

(4:59)

 

[uke2se]

Ukraine: This was NOT a Nazi Putsch

(4:59)

That your work? 'Cause it ain't Ukraine saying anything.

Just watched it. It's propaganda that's already been discussed in this thread. Fascists on both sides. The difference is that you support the fascists on one side, and those of us who support the Ukraine's right to freedom from Russia condemn the fascists on both sides.

 

[spin0]

Like I say, I really do not know. From what I understand, and from what the Estonian foreign minister was saying, it seems there is huge distrust of the new coalition. Not surprisingly; I certainly don't trust them myself given some of the CVs they have. However, if that is the case then it would not surprise me that Olga Bogomolets might point the finger at the coalition.

Well, she isn't:

Olga Bogomolets said she had not told Mr Paet that policemen and protesters had been killed in the same manner.

"Myself I saw only protesters. I do not know the type of wounds suffered by military people," she told The Telegraph. "I have no access to those people."

But she said she had asked for a full forensic criminal investigation into the deaths that occurred in the Maidan. "No one who just sees the wounds when treating the victims can make a determination about the type of weapons. I hope international experts and Ukrainian investigators will make a determination of what type of weapons, who was involved in the killings and how it was done. I have no data to prove anything.

"I was a doctor helping to save people on the square. There were 15 people killed on the first day by snipers. They were shot directly to the heart, brain and arteries. There were more than 40 the next day, 12 of them died in my arms.

"Our nation has to ask the question who were the killers, who asked them to come to Ukraine. We need good answers on the basis of expertise."

Mr Paet's assertion that an opposition figure was behind the Maidan massacre was not one she could share.

Source: The Telegraph - Ukraine crisis: UN envoy 'threatened by gunmen' in Crimea - live

Looks like RT has put a hefty amount of spin on that leaked conversation.