Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

[spin0]

No one is talking a Military response, but there are lot of nasty econmic sanctions the West can do to make Czar Vladamir the 1st pay a steep price.

As Russia doesn't have much export industries the economy is fully dependend on the exports of oil, gas and raw materials. If the west can together come up with ways to import less of those it will put hurt on Putin, badly, and also on his personal income.

Russia's exports in 2010 as a treemap:

(source)

 

[spin0]

Also from Slate: Vladimir Putin is miscalculating how easy it will be to control a Crimean mini-state

A very interesting assessment, thanks for posting.

What’s left out of most Western analyses of Putin’s brazen military intervention is the Crimea’s complete economic dependence on the mainland, which provides nearly all of its electricity and water and about 70 percent of its food.
...
It is impossible to sustain its 2 million people—including agriculture and the substantial tourist industry—without Ukrainian water. Current supplies aren’t even enough. In Sevastopol, home of the Black Sea Fleet, households get water only on certain days. In fact, on Feb. 19, when snipers were shooting protesters on the streets of Kiev, Sevastopol applied for $34 million in Western aid (note the irony) to improve its water and sewer systems.
The Crimea’s dependence on Ukraine for nearly all of it electricity makes it equally vulnerable to nonviolent retaliation.

Oh the irony in the highlighted part...

 

[Caustic Logic]

I finally looked into the parliament question a bit. It looks like the problem of frightened absenteeism wasn't as bad as I thought, but that's probably because it finally happened two days later than protesters demanded, after things had calmed down.

Between the Rada Wikipedia page and a maninstream news article, I gather this:
449 seats total, apportioned by last election. 250 held by ruling coalition, 199 by opposition parties. The article says:

In an emergency session, the Ukraine parliament voted 380 to 0 on Saturday to remove Yanukovych from office, saying he was guilty of gross human rights violations and dereliction of duty. Many of Yanukovych's allies were absent or abstained from voting.

First off, a vote of anything-to-zero, when important stuff is at stake like this, is usually taken as a bad sign, like a totalitarian is making them vote this way. But at any rate, that's a lot of votes cast. Only 69 apparently were absent, I'm guessing all from the opposition side. But even among the presumably 130 who appeared, they were unanimous in defecting with their votes to impeach the president, when there was until then, or even right then, no legal measure to do so. But everyone just knew it was the right thing. 100%.

Or, maybe, a few were just voting out of fear? Usually the votes are public, right? So reps can feel the pressure of the voters/stompers.

There will be Ukrainians with brains, in the West, east, and center, who will be seeing things about this most in the West don't see or care about, that make them unhappy with these recent events. The hotel snipers, for example, or the possible strong-arming of parliamentary opposition. They'll be trying to do something. I've wondered what. The CIA will be helping turn this back, if the cement's dry enough to bother.

Here's a Communist source, apparently, on Counter-revolution in Ukraine: mobilize against reactionary coup and fascist militias

Haven't read it yet but will. Looks interesting.

 

[The Big Dog]

Not to excuse that exactly, but considering one came before the other ...

The "protesters" at the Maidan, including apparently the un-advertised White Supremacist contingent, positioned themselves on at least one side of the parliament building in Kiev by about 1 PM on the 20th. Snipers in the hotel opened fire at about 1 PM, sealing the president's fate, morally. At 1:30, the "protesters" demanded a special session of parliament on getting rid of the murderer finally. All their MP friends and enemies should re-assemble there right now, and the "protesters" promised not to storm it and stomp heads in, unless they got mad. Then some special session was called, they invented impeachment and did it, but I think a number of MPs never showed up and that's why the votes have gone so quick.

So, this is kind of the flavor of the times in Ukraine, and Russia did not start that. They just escalated it and showed how much better (more firmly) they can do it than the West can with its sneaky proxy maneuvers. The situation and its underrated craziness is in fact such that Russia can even invade an area like Crimea and have the people thankful for it, inviting it, as it seems they have to some extent. That's because they all live there, and have to deal with the effects.

We (our leaders) don't, and are more free to play around with optional projects like "cementing Ukraine's future with the west, without provoking a Russian intervention," and just walk away if it goes to crap, and of course blame Putin for not just letting us cement whatever we want, wherever and whenever and by whatever means we want.

Odd, you seem rather obsessed with wiki and not very interested in Putin's invasion of the Sudetenland Crimea.

 

[angrysoba]

Maybe Yanukovych can be made president of his very own Republic of Salò.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Interesting video: Scraping Kharkiv Regional State Administration from the Nazis Is that a Svoboda flag hanging from the building? Not anymore. Same uploader, just uploaded, huge anti-putschist demonstration in Lugansk. Collection of similar videos from all over the east, Russian flags everywhere. Seems like not only Crimea doesn't accept the new overlords in Kyiv.

 

[trustbutverify]

Crimean Tatars compose such a small amount of population in Crimea that their political impact will almost be negligible. The radicals will most likely be dealt with and dispersed.

Wow.

 

[trustbutverify]

Of course not. Why would they. Russia is neither the USA or Israel.

Oh yea. Almost forgot about that.

 

[Klimax]

...
Got it. What did you want to highlight here?
...

Nothing in particular, just saw it as good summary what happened there "back then". (just sort of closure, as we got now bit bigger problems like Russians being way too active again and scenario is way too close to scenario in 1938 to my liking)

 

[crescent]

Interesting video: Scraping Kharkiv Regional State Administration from the Nazis Is that a Svoboda flag hanging from the building? Not anymore. Same uploader, just uploaded, huge anti-putschist demonstration in Lugansk. Collection of similar videos from all over the east, Russian flags everywhere. Seems like not only Crimea doesn't accept the new overlords in Kyiv.

I don' doubt that some of that is real, but some could be astro-turf. Here is a quote from the BBCnews live feed:

09:34: Andrey in Donetsk, Ukraine

emails: I live in Donetsk and I am Russian-speaking Ukrainian. From Friday Donetsk is overcrowded with outsiders whose job is to pretend to be us (locals). On Saturday they staged the protest meeting with Russian flags, and even announced a people's governor, right on the square - a person who no one had heard about before. I do not know what is happened in other eastern Ukrainian cities, but it looks like the same scenario as in Donetsk.

I know it seems a bit CT-ish - but, then again, we had the soldiers without insignia identified as Ukrainian militias, right up until they started identifying the Russian military units they belonged to.

I doubt it is all fake, but paid demonstrations by outside provocateurs were an effective tactic in the consolidation of Soviet control in Eastern Europe after WWII.

 

[Giz]

Jesus... the Guardian actually making some cogent points about East/West foreign relations:

---
Obama said in his statement: "Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilising, which is not in the interests of Ukraine, Russia or Europe." But these are the words of a university professor thinking logically, rather than a savvy, cynical politician. For Putin, Russia's interest (and his own) would be massively served if US and European interference, as he sees it, in Ukraine is knocked back decisively.
...
So Putin's calculations are likely to prove right. The "costs" to Russia of its latest bit of neighbourhood vandalism may be limited to a US boycott of the next G8 summit, in June, a diplomatic freeze, or a wrangle at the UN security council, or some form of punitive trade measures or sanctions. If that sounds like a puny response, it is. It will not deter Putin, the unrepentant cold war warrior. It is just what his contemptuous soul expected.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/west-response-ukraine-vladimir-putin-russia
---

 

[332nd]

I don' doubt that some of that is real, but some could be astro-turf. Here is a quote from the BBCnews live feed:



I know it seems a bit CT-ish - but, then again, we had the soldiers without insignia identified as Ukrainian militias, right up until they started identifying the Russian military units they belonged to.

I doubt it is all fake, but paid demonstrations by outside provocateurs were an effective tactic in the consolidation of Soviet control in Eastern Europe after WWII.

Hmmm... for what its worth (which I admit ain't much) a guy on my football forum, who grew up in Soviet Ukraine has been saying the same thing & he's never been one for CTs.

 

[Childlike Empress]

I don' doubt that some of that is real, but some could be astro-turf. Here is a quote from the BBCnews live feed:



I know it seems a bit CT-ish - but, then again, we had the soldiers without insignia identified as Ukrainian militias, right up until they started identifying the Russian military units they belonged to.

I doubt it is all fake, but paid demonstrations by outside provocateurs were an effective tactic in the consolidation of Soviet control in Eastern Europe after WWII.

BBC, eh? Well, all those peasant protesters from Lviv region surely didn't arrive in Kyiv on their own money, just ask neoconcubine Nuland. A standard practice of color revolutions. But something like this needs preparation. This looks largely spontaneous but I wouldn't rule out that some of it isn't. Some oligarchs in Donetsk won't be happy with the development either.

 

[trustbutverify]

09:34: Andrey in Donetsk, Ukraine

emails: I live in Donetsk and I am Russian-speaking Ukrainian. From Friday Donetsk is overcrowded with outsiders whose job is to pretend to be us (locals). On Saturday they staged the protest meeting with Russian flags, and even announced a people's governor, right on the square - a person who no one had heard about before. I do not know what is happened in other eastern Ukrainian cities, but it looks like the same scenario as in Donetsk

Very interesting.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Jesus... the Guardian actually making some cogent points about East/West foreign relations:

---
Obama said in his statement: "Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilising, which is not in the interests of Ukraine, Russia or Europe." But these are the words of a university professor thinking logically, rather than a savvy, cynical politician. For Putin, Russia's interest (and his own) would be massively served if US and European interference, as he sees it, in Ukraine is knocked back decisively.
...
So Putin's calculations are likely to prove right. The "costs" to Russia of its latest bit of neighbourhood vandalism may be limited to a US boycott of the next G8 summit, in June, a diplomatic freeze, or a wrangle at the UN security council, or some form of punitive trade measures or sanctions. If that sounds like a puny response, it is. It will not deter Putin, the unrepentant cold war warrior. It is just what his contemptuous soul expected.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/west-response-ukraine-vladimir-putin-russia
---

Obama to Putin: You broke the law.

Putin to Obama: You miscalculated.

Obama: We were cementing stuff there.

Putin: We are cementing now. Our spout's closer.

Up next: the crazy event everyone's upset about, and the crazy precipitating events they'd rather not know too much about, need to fizzle each other out somehow. pull the cement or rinse off if wet enough.

A sane middle needs to emerge to reject both the Euro-Fascist putsch and the Russian invasion. But the latter is necessary to force that pause and re-think the Western rush was hoping to avoid. Therefore, if it gets no worse, and is reversed as soon as practicable, I applaud the ****, more or less.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Jesus... the Guardian actually making some cogent points about East/West foreign relations:

BS. It's just what you want to hear. It's hilarious how you guys keep pretending that Putin is a "cold war warrior" when the only reason you hate him so much is the propaganda by the guys who see him standing in the way of their world domination scheme "Project for a New American Century" (Nuland's husband being an important figure). Bizarre.

Read an interesting interview (German) with a guy leading the Carnegie Centre in Moscow yesterday. Headline: "What the West thinks doesn't matter to Putin anymore". Thesis: The tasteless smear campaign against the Sochi Olympics was the straw that finally broke the camel's back in that Putin and the Russian public have realized that they can do what they want, the "Western" propaganda machine will always smear them and has demonized Putin personally so much that he can do a lot of nasty things before the reality comes even close to the image. Hence we have no public statement from him.

I say, finally. Let them foam at the mouth, they're lost swimming in their own kool aid, disgusting self-righteousness, overall viciousness and utter stupidity anyway. If the incompetent fool Janukovic had internalized that and hadn't tried to please everyone and give the Fascists almost everything they demanded to avoid "bad press", that escalation wouldn't have happened and those people would still be alive.

 

[spin0]

Very interesting.

Also many Redditors from the area have been pointing out the same thing.

ETA: They have been also saying that pro-russia protests are apparently traveling around in Russian buses, and tend to appear as small compared to previous Euromaidan protests:

ETA: Not sure what's up with those pro-russia protests, but that's what I hear from local redditors. They have also noted that some of those protesters apparently live in Moscow according to their vkontakte/instagram/facebook accounts.

 

[Darth Rotor]

First off, I want to thank all contributors of the past few days for the wealth of entertainment, E into JREF, and occasionally an insight or two. Y'all really done good.

Oh, that's surprising. I stand corrected.

Preserved for posterity.

Exclusive: How Ukraine Wooed Conservative Websites

Is that code for "how the Jews interfered in Ukraine" or is my decoder ring from the wrong year?

Hmmm developments seem interesting. I am almost certain the story is far from over. I suspect that civil war will be instigated. We'll see.

Why did you use the term "instigate" and whom do you think will be applying "instigate" as an active verb?

My Polish ex couldn't decide if she hated Germans or Russians more.

Have her try this: odd days German, even days Russian, just like when we were gas rationing in 1974.

And Ukraine isn't a black hole?

Checked with S Hawking, he says it's a gray hole.

I knew it was Zionist Nazis behind all this mess.

Jesus wept, with joy.
If something can get Nazis and Jews to unite together for a common purpose, then we are one step closer to heaven on earth. If you apply "tax collector" from the Gospels as a model for "universally despised member of society" you get, in late 20th early 21st century "Nazi" as universally despised ... and yet, Jesus hung with the tax collectors, trying to make a point. Sorry, relig/philosophy digression there, won't do it again.

What does worry me are the 150,000 Russian troops massing on the border.

Doesn't bother me in the least. It's not my border.

I can say one thing about Yanukovych though, he is extremely incompetent.

In othernews, water is wet.

Its ukraine. If you are hoping for left wingers it isn't going to happen :

http://pando.com/2014/02/24/everything-you-know-about-ukraine-is-wrong/ I'm failing to see a problem.

Damn, that's interesting.

EU isn't really doing much at all. Individual memebers are being more active.

Just wrist muscles getting a workout.

If Crimea wants to be ruled by a dictator in the making (Putin) what's the negative impact for Ukraine? Is the fear that the shirtless wonder won't stop there?

Check the rail, port, fuel, and road networks. Have you answered the question yet?

Trying to insist on strict legality at this point is just going to result in a bunch of arrests of rather rich people and further instability.

Ooh, and on youtube some neat bondage flicks of rich people in prison. Someone will bake a buck.

Demographics regarding identity, ethnicity and language are much more nuanced than you have implied with the oversimplifications.

Thanks for the map.

And just as I predicted Yanukovych has fled to Putin's loving arms in Russia.

Are we back to this "talented Mr Putin is a homo" meme again?

What I've understood from those that are there is that there are Jews on both sides.

What? Jews have a diversity of political interest? Alert the press!

Protip: If you're insisting that you weren't ousted in a news conference from another country, you were ousted.

Well played.

Well, they certainly don't look like worried citizens' militia on a ad-hoc protest.

Considering the militias I, some years ago, had to assist in the bloody destruction of, these guys are a bit more organized.

Strange days. Russian-speaking Ukrainians petition Putin to refrain from sending troops.

Good luck with that. Vlad is not famous for listening.

Bandits in Kyiv? Take over an airport in Crimea, just in case. Seems legit!

Indeed, it does. Nations have interests, not friends.

Does anyone else think that Russia could invade simply to reinstall Yanukovych and "monitor" the upcoming elections?

I don't think they'll back that horse, he is the Diem(1963) who cannot generate local support. Vlad ain't that dumb.

The question then is whether or not Russia wants to be provoked. Because if they do, I'm sure they can make sure they get provoked.

See above. Vlad didn't get to where he is by being dumb.

The naval base is located directly in the city. You mean to tell me that they simply couldn't just give the weapons to some locals and tell them to do "x"?

No, you can't. It isn't that easy.

Only imperial stormtroopers are so precise....

Per actual Star Wars canon, those guys can't hit much that they shoot at.

The Russians will most likely take control of Crimea after being 'invited' by local pro-Russian politicians and citizens in a fanfare of patriotic spin so Putin can bury the fact that his efforts to bring Ukraine back into Russian sphere of influence have been an abject failure.

The US and EU know this and will make loud diplomatic noises but do nothing so long as Putin sticks to Crimea.

That's the way to bet.

Russia’s Senate Approves Use of Military Force in Ukraine
Sweet. Just like W's Senate and House did for him in Iraq. Nothing like precedent to make international legal scholars giggle like schoolgirls.

Yup, the imperialist American puppet Nazi Joos with false flags who forced Putin to further stabilize situation with tanks.

Give 'dem Jews credit for being versatile. Come one, you know you can!

Nothing to see here, just local private militias or something, not Russian troops!

As above, seem a bit more organized ...

Is there anywhere the tentacles of the imperialist American puppet Nazi Islamist Joos with false flags can't reach??

Uranus. Someone had to say it.

IMHO we have just seen the start of "Cold War 2".

Well, that sucks, if true. Cold War 2 will be won by China, and nobody else.

Realistically, the Crimea is gone.

Uh, no, it's right where it was yesterday. All that may change is who seems to be in charge. This happens, see human history for the last 6000 years.

As a young American who can't remember the Cold War, I can give a damn what Russia does so long as it doesn't extend past the non-Baltic republics of the former Soviet Union. .

You and I need to sit down IRL with a beer so I can 'splain a few things to you. I'll buy the first four rounds.

Obama said in his statement: "Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilising, which is not in the interests of Ukraine, Russia or Europe."

His estimation of interests may or may not be on the mark.

 

[dudalb]

Kerry sounded really tough this morning. I suspect that economic sanctions are going to happen, at least on the US's Part. If for other reason then Obama cannot be seen as weak on this with the midterm elections right around the corner.

 

[spin0]

Pro-russia demonstration in Simferopol, Crimea reportedly gathered about 200 people. In the images they have surrounded a statue of Lenin to protect it: google-translated article

And according to poll conducted by Kiev International Institute of Sociology Feb 8-18 only 41% of Crimeans support a "union" with Russia: google translated article
But I'm sure the upcoming Crimean referendum conducted under Russian occupation will be 130% free and fair and show the actual overwhelming support for annexation into Russia.

I'd like to know what was the actual poll question: was it about joining the customs union or something else? I tried to find further data on that new poll, but unfortunately the KIIS site is under update.

Also a demographic breakdown would be interesting as support for Russia tends to be highest among over 70 year olds and lowest among the young. The correlation with age has been very strong in other related polls, and support for Russia has also correlated with low education, and ethnic identity.

Here's a graph demonstrating the strong effect of age from an earlier poll:

And in another poll by KIIS majority of Ukrainians support the EU over Russia's customs union.

(poll conducted 24 Jan to 1 Feb 2014 among 2400 respondents, error +/- 2.0%)