• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

Status
Not open for further replies.
... or maybe it won't. The Tatars in there aren't exactly thrilled about being under Moscow again. If they acquire a significant radical wing, there could be all sorts of unpleasantness.

Crimean Tatars compose such a small amount of population in Crimea that their political impact will almost be negligible. The radicals will most likely be dealt with and dispersed.
 
Crimean Tatars compose such a small amount of population in Crimea that their political impact will almost be negligible.

12%. That's not insignificant, especially if they forget about politics and turn into other measures in large numbers.

The radicals will most likely be dealt with and dispersed.

Yes, in ways that would elicit a strong reaction if a Western power did it, but now it's just "dealing with them".
 
12%. That's not insignificant, especially if they forget about politics and turn into other measures in large numbers.

Insignificant enough for the minority to be marginalized, neglected, and only occasionally appeased by "charity". Same tactics all governments use on "undesirables".



Yes, in ways that would elicit a strong reaction if a Western power did it, but now it's just "dealing with them".

Nah no such thing, most of them will simply end up in prison, unemployed, and have the taxes raised on their land so that the area becomes effective gentrified.
 
Prime Minister, not governor. And "newly elected" comes with a fairly large asterisk.

The Supreme Council of Crimea voted to replace the old Prime Minister in a vote of no confidence with a super majority.

ETA: Caught the prime minister part, thanks
 
Seems like Russia is trying to bait Ukraine into an armed conflict and reinstall Yanukovych.
 
Last edited:
ANd I also think there is going to be a "Do we really want to be dependent on a thug like Putin for our Gas" feeling in Europe and they will be looking very hard for different suppliers.
Yep. And that sentiment has existed for years already as Putin has demonstrated not to be reliable as a trading partner, and instead of continuing country's transition towards democracy as originally hoped he has set up an authoritarian system with political oppression and election frauds making personally billions in the process.

Here's latest example of Putin's domestic policies: Aleksei A. Navalny, Russia’s leading opposition figure, was placed under house arrest on Friday and ordered not to use the Internet or telephone for two months, thus removing President Vladimir V. Putin’s leading critic from public life.

An interesting question: Why the two moths?

("but... but... but... it's not fascism when Putin does it... and it's not imperialism when Putin invades sovereign countries... and Putin using nationalism and military invasion in an effort to rip apart and annex other countries is not ultranationalism it's just uhm...uh...moderate panslavism...")

The EU's original idea behind the Nord Stream gas pipeline with Russia was too idealistic. Russia had needed economic support, financial help and investments for a long time and the EU was one of the parties providing those. With the Nord Stream pipeline the EU's thinking was that by trade and interdependency Russia would continue its transition towards democracy and prosperity. But Putin proved otherwise.

The decision to buid the Nord Stream ment that other viable pipeline projects such as Nabucco from south were scrapped in favour of Russian gas. And a decade ago the EU got about half of its gas from Russia. But since then there has been active policies for a more heterogenic energy mix and Russia's share has been on a long decline to the current 1/3. Gas from Norway and Quatar has been on a steady rise instead, and with the LNG terminals gas can be shipped from other parts of the world too.
 
Last edited:
Seems like Russia is trying to bait Ukraine into an armed conflict and give Russia an excuse to invade and reinstall Yanukovych.

Possibly quite accurate. They want a obedient puppy on the throne.

McHrozni
 
The Crimea is gone, because the majority of the local population prefers Russia over the new government in Kiev.
Majority by which referendum? How many people do actually support autonomy, how many independency, and how many prefers Russia?

And are we supposed to just ignore Russia's military invasion there?
Key areas, governmental buildings, trasport routes and communication hubs in Crimea have been occupied and are controlled by Russian troops. Crimean parliament was seized by armed troops and a new Crimean PM was installed.

Originally there was to be a referendum about Crimea's future May 25th with the presidential election. But the newly installed PM has moved it to be held already this month (probably because the Russians plan to use the impeached Yanukovich to sign it and has to happen before any election). And today he has declared that anyone not co-operating with the Russians will be imprisoned.

I'm sure the Crimean referendum will be 120% free and fair.
 
12%. That's not insignificant, especially if they forget about politics and turn into other measures in large numbers.
Just pointing out that the 12% is from 2001 census. That was 13 years ago, and the repatriation of Tatars back to Crimea has continued since then.

There has not been a newer census, but the actual share of Tatar population is significantly bigger now than is was 13 years ago with an average growth rate of 0.9% per year. At the same time the share of ethnic Russian population has been declining and also Ukrainian.

Unfortunately communications to the Crimea were disconnected, so cannot prode link to primary source, but here's the relevant part in wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Ethnic_groups
The population of the Crimean Peninsula has been consistently falling at a rate of 0.4% per year.[66] This is particularly apparent in both the Russian and Ukrainian ethnic populations, whose growth rate has been falling at the rate of 0.6% and 0.12% annually respectively. In comparison, the ethnic Crimean Tatar population has been growing at the rate of 0.9% per annum.


ETA: And here's relevant table with the effect of ethnic cleansing of Tatars and earlier trends:
HOCBEHo.png
 
Last edited:
Anyone curious about the case of the Vesti journalist I took an interest in, there was an update on the 27th with lots of details. Witnesses, and video, say a gang of men in black SUVs took over a crossroads outside Kiev the night of the 18th, as protesters poured in. They attacked cars, smashed windows in, and tossed in "grenades," maybe stun grenades only. Vyacheslav was one such, got out of the car and was filmed beaing beaten horribly with pipes. A nearby woman then shielded him when he could run to her. He stayed awake ten minute til the ambulance got there and then died in the hsopital. Nothing about guns. Weird story. The deaf Olympics gold medalist kid too died this night from a "grenade." And ten cops were shot dead, here or in Kiev unclear ATM

Report + image links and partial translation, lower half of this section
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:Ukraine_2014#Vesti_Journalist

Yanukovych regime thugs? The report that the suspect was captured were (or became) untrue, Vesti adds. Authorities are on it, no solid suspect, they say. They'll find some I suppose. Or not.


...may be recorded as the man who made up Viktor Yanukovich's mind to cut and run.

...

"Emotions were overflowing because we had lost a great number of people. Suddenly these politicians come and say 'Yanukovich will stay as president and there will be elections.' I have a clear position. Yanukovich is a terrorist, Terrorist Number One, for Ukraine," Parasiuk said.

...

"Our kinsmen have been shot and our leaders shake hands with this killer. This is shame. Tomorrow, by 10 o'clock, he has to be gone," Parasiuk declared.

Got it. What did you want to highlight here?

This unlikely scrappy hero might make the history books, sure. Likely long before the sniper in the green helmet and his friends get their proper slot. But who knows?

For the record that article cites "his comrades and other protesters among the 80 or so people killed on the capital's streets last week in three days of fighting against Yanukovich's police." 82 dead I hear, 11-17 police, about 67 others, largely militants moving in on the seat of government, and partly people shot from the Hotel Ukraine with its problems, plus also an unclear number killed at a crossroads outside Kiev the 18th/19th (see above), a couple heart attack victims, and a kid who got sick and died after returning home, and an IT specialist beaten to death in the torching of the regions party HQ.

Terrorist #1, 82 counts of murder at the ICC, sounds like the right solution. Right?
 
... while under siege in the Parliament building. You don't think that's relevant?
And not only under siege as the parliament building was actually entered and seized by troops in Russian gear but without identifying insignia.
 
Last edited:
And not only under siege as the parliament building was actually entered and seized by troops in Russian gear without identifying insignia.

Not to excuse that exactly, but considering one came before the other ...

The "protesters" at the Maidan, including apparently the un-advertised White Supremacist contingent, positioned themselves on at least one side of the parliament building in Kiev by about 1 PM on the 20th. Snipers in the hotel opened fire at about 1 PM, sealing the president's fate, morally. At 1:30, the "protesters" demanded a special session of parliament on getting rid of the murderer finally. All their MP friends and enemies should re-assemble there right now, and the "protesters" promised not to storm it and stomp heads in, unless they got mad. Then some special session was called, they invented impeachment and did it, but I think a number of MPs never showed up and that's why the votes have gone so quick.

So, this is kind of the flavor of the times in Ukraine, and Russia did not start that. They just escalated it and showed how much better (more firmly) they can do it than the West can with its sneaky proxy maneuvers. The situation and its underrated craziness is in fact such that Russia can even invade an area like Crimea and have the people thankful for it, inviting it, as it seems they have to some extent. That's because they all live there, and have to deal with the effects.

We (our leaders) don't, and are more free to play around with optional projects like "cementing Ukraine's future with the west, without provoking a Russian intervention," and just walk away if it goes to crap, and of course blame Putin for not just letting us cement whatever we want, wherever and whenever and by whatever means we want.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom