Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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From what I have read from oro guilt posters, the believe Amanda lied about finding the door open. As everyone knows, people should immediately assume murder, rape and mayhem upon finding a door open instead of something implausible like your flatmate not locking the deadbolt.

Thanks for playing. I like these thought experiments as I think they are useful. Why would she make that up. It ended up making her look suspicious. The faeces was enough to justify hooking Raf back for a second look.
 
A sub group of the PGP camp...

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I am perplexed why you and others speculate in this way? There is no evidence that Amanda secretly left Raffaele's flat, went to her place, and participated in or overlapped with a murder. If I understand you correctly, the time period about which you are speculating irresponsibly is much later at night than the duodenum-proved time-of-death.

You might as well speculate that a Perugia police officer on motorcycle was on standby to rush Amanda by motorcycle through the narrow streets to her flat and back so that it was a quick trip. Can you speculate about it? Yes. Will a motorcycle fit in the narrow streets of Perugia? Yes. Is there a grain of evidence? No.
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I don't think it was secret. Raffaele dozes off for a minute, Amanda remembers something in her bedroom that she had forgotten, she jimmied the door so it would be easier to get back in, got scared to death by noises behind the door of Meredith's room raced back to Raffaele's house, slips back in and for some strange reason is too scared to tell Raffaele about it.

To me, it's possible, although I do agree it's not highly probable.

The next day, to me anyway, she looks like something like that happened. Raffael not really big time concerned and more relaxed looking than Amanda, comforting her, kissing her, hugging her.

He looks like he doesn't really know, but Amanda does look like she's got a scared feeling something bad is going to happen.

Hearing things behind closed doors sounds more like her confession/ accusation/ statement than anything I've heard anywhere.

there's also a sub-group within the PGP camp that don't necessarily believe they're murderers, but did know something about the murders before they were discovered.

Although improbable, it's still possible, in my opinion,

d

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Old porn joke ALERT

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I have seen several news headlines over the years where a young otherwise-anonymous woman's identity is tied to a sensational event and some pornographer releases a press release saying they are offering her money to be a porn star. It is apparently all about publicity for the porn company's brand, and there is no reason to believe that the young woman has any interest in that sort of thing. In fact, it is quite possible that the porn entity that released the press release has not even succeeded in communicating directly with the woman.

There is some similarity between what the porn entity announces it wants to do and what the Italian guys downstairs did in talking about Meredith and Amanda, where one or several of them, including Rudy who was there once for it, saying they would like to "do" one or both of them.
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like that old porn joke, what's the difference between two guys talking in a locker room in real life and two guys in the same place doing a porn movie. In the second example you actually get to see what the first two guys are talking about,

d

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I don't think it was secret. Raffaele dozes off for a minute, Amanda remembers something in her bedroom that she had forgotten, she jimmied the door so it would be easier to get back in, got scared to death by noises behind the door of Meredith's room raced back to Raffaele's house, slips back in and for some strange reason is too scared to tell Raffaele about it.

first of all you don't mean jimmied the door you mean propped it open -

jim•my (ˈdʒɪm i)

n., pl. -mies, n.
1. a short crowbar.
v.t.
2. to force open with or as if with a jimmy.
To me, it's possible, although I do agree it's not highly probable.

Why would she run out by herself for anything and why wouldn't she tell Raf and why wouldn't she tell the police the next day? It makes no sense.

Raf thinking he was god's gift to women after landing Amanda going to have sex with Meredith makes more sense and fits with Rudy's Skype story. Obviously he wouldn't tell Amanda or anybody else about it. I'll bet donuts to dollars that he had Xanax from his dad.

The next day, to me anyway, she looks like something like that happened. Raffael not really big time concerned and more relaxed looking than Amanda, comforting her, kissing her, hugging her

He looks like he doesn't really know, but Amanda does look like she's got a scared feeling something bad is going to happen.

Are you a graduate of the Peggy Ganong "How to tell what went on from a picture" school?

Hearing things behind closed doors sounds more like her confession/ accusation/ statement than anything I've heard anywhere.

there's also a sub-group within the PGP camp that don't necessarily believe they're murderers, but do know something about the murder beforehand.

Although improbable, it's still possible, in my opinion,

Of course it sounds like the accusation statement because you made it up to fit the statement.

Everything up to her not telling Raf or the cops might be possible, but the silence is impossible.
 
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The faeces was enough to justify hooking Raf back for a second look.

Agree. As she tells it, she came home to an open front door. Not a big deal, as everyone knew the thing had to be locked and unlocked with a key. M's door was closed. Not a big deal, as that could have meant anything -- M was still asleep and hadn't locked up tight behind herself, or maybe she'd come home and run out for some kind of quick errand. Then she sees a few drops of blood on the sink. Again, not a big deal because after all this is a bathroom in a house shared by young women. It happens.

What does creep Amanda out is the contents of the toilet in the older women's bathroom. That was ugly. And it was completely out of the realm of what she'd come to expect in that house. Yes, enough to get out of there and bring back Raffaele . . . though she's already second-guessing herself as she describes it to him. There's no hurry. It's probably nothing. Let's eat breakfast first.

This is exactly what women do when they don't want to look like ninnies. Get spooked, downplay the reason, distrust their own instincts. I've done it, my grown daughters have done it, and if you ask any hundred women I think you'll find that a majority of them know exactly what I mean.

In that Guardian story published the other day, the writer describes this exact tendency in Amanda, as he's observed it over the past six years. She doesn't want to look weak.

It's ironic, because she's taking shape as one of the strongest people I've ever seen.
 
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you could probably make a good arguement to prove your point and I really wouldn't argue with you much, except Susan Atkins I think might have done it anyway, but that is neither here nor there.

I linked to the Wikipedia about the Bittaker and Norris case in my OP:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Bittaker_and_Roy_Norris

The Manson case just makes the case that it's not impossible for two or more people to psychologically bind in a group murder, but not stranger and in 30 minutes time? The odds, in my opinion, are too astronomical to be considered even remotely probable, but still possible,

d

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Charlie was a shrimp. But Tex Watson was a large imposing man. Charlie was a crazy and charismatic guy and the family was following him. But Tex was crazy and had the physical strength, mean streak and ability to carry out the crimes. It was his physical ability that enabled the entire murder spree.

Susan Atkins blindly followed Charlie's orders, but Tex was there to make the whole thing possible.

I agree with you Amy. But I'd go farther than that. I don't think it would have been possible given their makeups for Raffaele and Amanda to have bound together to a point in a weeks time to murder, let alone adding and bonding enough with Rudy to commit this crime.
 
Agree. As she tells it, she came home to an open front door. Not a big deal, as everyone knew the thing had to be locked and unlocked with a key.

Let me fill you in on what I recall Amanda wrote about the open front door. She was a bit concerned finding it open but knew it didn't lock right. She also thought perhaps one of her housemates had stepped out momentarily to take out the trash or visit the guys' place downstairs.
 
In my opinion...

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first of all you don't mean jimmied the door you mean propped it open -

<SNIP>

Why would she run out by herself for anything and why wouldn't she tell Raf and why wouldn't she tell the police the next day? It makes no sense.

Raf thinking he was god's gift to women after landing Amanda going to have sex with Meredith makes more sense and fits with Rudy's Skype story. Obviously he wouldn't tell Amanda or anybody else about it. I'll bet donuts to dollars that he had Xanax from his dad.

Are you a graduate of the Peggy Ganong "How to tell what went on from a picture" school?
Of course it sounds like the accusation statement because you made it up to fit the statement.

Everything up to her not telling Raf or the cops might be possible, but the silence is impossible.
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Semantics Grinder, really? Ok propped, whatever.

I don't subscribe to anything, I think Amanda looks like she's stressed about something. It's not evidence. I'm not passing judgement here. I am making an observation and SHE LOOKS STRESSED TO ME, but is she really stressed? Most of the pictures I've seen of her since looked stressed and so do some of the older ones. I've come to the conclusion that's her look, but there is nothing wrong (in my opinion) with saying Amanda looked stressed that day. It's a legitimate observation.

I've not kept my observations about Amanda's pictures looking creepy. She looks creepy to me, but THAT definitely make her a murderer.

I never said I didn't make anything up. This is ALL in my head, it's MY theory, and thus the "my opinion" thing that I try to post at the end of everything I post. And anyway, so what if it's made up.

To be honest with you Grinder, and you can believe me or not, but I thought up the sneaking over to her flat theory long before I realized it fit the confession et. al., about two or three months.

I don't believe anything is impossible, just more improbable. If you don't believe that, fine. To me it just means that we'll have to agree to disagree here.

In my opinion,

d

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Massei on the Glass Breaking

As this has come up again recently, I'd like to repost where Massei describes the prosecution argument for the breaking of the glass. It starts with his argument that Sergent Pasquali's presentation showing how the glass was broken from a rock thrown from outside the cottage was not good enough so he came up with this gem instead. Here it is preserved in glorious wall of text style:


Massei PMF 52 said:
Firstly, it should be observed that Sergeant Pasquali stated that he had never studied stone throwing apart from this case; he also supported the possibility of "making a parallel with investigations of ballistics and firearms"; the same consultant did, however, admit that, whereas ballistics is a science of precise data [dati certi] (p. 39, hearing of July 3, 2009), "here we have an infinity of possible variations" [abbiamo delle variabili che sono infinite](p. 40). Precisely in relation to these variations and to what has been observed above, the assertion and the explanation he offers for the stone having been thrown from outside cannot be shared by the Court. Indeed, if one supposes that the stone was thrown from the inside with the shutters pulled closed (as they must have been according to statements cited above), but with the casement holding the pane somewhat open, with the inner shutter behind it, then here is a situation analogous to that of throwing the stone from the outside (the rock would hit the window in the same place as if it came from the outside), and under the shock of the large stone, because of the resistance of the inner shutter behind the window-pane (the shield effect as one might say), the pieces of glass would necessarily fall down on the windowsill both inside and outside (considering the casement as having being only slightly open, and thus the smashed pane positioned near to the windowsill). The presence of the shutters pulled inwards, as described by Romanelli, would have prevented the pieces of glass from falling to the ground below, as indeed they did not, but as they surely would have had the stone been thrown from the outside. As for the presence of glass in Romanelli's room, the violence of the blow, the characteristics of the glass (which was rather thin as indicated by Romanelli and Pasquali), the large rock used, and finally the shield effect caused by the inner shutter hanging half-open behind the glass pane [41] (a position of the inner shutter which corresponds to the scratch on it visible in the photos) give an adequate explanation of the distribution of the glass.
 
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Semantics Grinder, really? Ok propped, whatever.

Amy it's the definition. Jimmied doesn't mean propped open - it means breaking in - why not say she could have just bombed the front door?

I don't subscribe to anything, I think Amanda looks like she's stressed about something. It's not evidence. I'm not passing judgement here. I am making an observation and SHE LOOKS STRESSED TO ME, but is she really stressed? Most of the pictures I've seen of her since looked stressed and so do some of the older ones. I've come to the conclusion that's her look, but there is nothing wrong (in my opinion) with saying Amanda looked stressed that day. It's a legitimate observation.

Hello, her roommate had just been killed. You didn't just say she looked stressed, you made that look back your assertion that she might of slipped out that night and heard the attack IIRC.

I've not kept my observations about Amanda's pictures looking creepy. She looks creepy to me, but THAT definitely make her a murderer.

Obviously you meant to say doesn't make her a murderer but it's semantics right :p

I never said I didn't make anything up. This is ALL in my head, it's MY theory, and thus the "my opinion" thing that I try to post at the end of everything I post. And anyway, so what if it's made up.

To be honest with you Grinder, and you can believe me or not, but I thought up the sneaking over to her flat theory long before I realized it fit the confession et. al., about two or three months.

Sure I believe you, but why would think of that idea except it fit with the accusation? And it's et al. not et. al. :o

I don't believe anything is impossible, just more improbable. If you don't believe that, fine. To me it just means that we'll have to agree to disagree here.
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As Steve Martin said it's "just impossible to get a Cadillac up your nose"...

but you are free to believe it can be done :p
 
Pluto is closer

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Charlie was a shrimp. But Tex Watson was a large imposing man. Charlie was a crazy and charismatic guy and the family was following him. But Tex was crazy and had the physical strength, mean streak and ability to carry out the crimes. It was his physical ability that enabled the entire murder spree.

Susan Atkins blindly followed Charlie's orders, but Tex was there to make the whole thing possible.

I agree with you Amy. But I'd go farther than that. I don't think it would have been possible given their makeups for Raffaele and Amanda to have bound together to a point in a weeks time to murder, let alone adding and bonding enough with Rudy to commit this crime.
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Yeah if everything said about Tex is true, he's one messed up dude. He was also purportedly the guy that got most of the girls for Charlie. Charlie had a good line. but Tex definitely got things started at the Tate house.

Charlie tied up the LaBianca's, but the Tate murders were definitely all started by Tex. Just to refresh, Tex is the one who killed Steve Parent in his car as he was driving down the driveway.

You might be right about Susan, but if it hadn't happened there, the way she described enjoying the stabbing part was even creepier than you could ever say about Amanda, even if you talked for a million years, it was bound to happen eventually, in my opinion.

Raffael and Amanda bonding like together like that psychologically to kill someone etc etc is a stretch to begin with, especially after only six days, but now put in a third person who neither of them knew even less than slightly is highly improbable.

People who kill, either have had to talk themselves into doing it or just do it. Getting three people together like that, almost at random, are in my opinion, astronomical.

What would anyone here think if someone walked up to them and asked them, how'd you like to kill someone. What would be your first thought?

To me it's like two people on the street fighting and as other people pass by, they would join in to get their licks in too. And, then no one talks about it for six years? What are the odds of three people agreeing to this?

Pluto is closer,

d

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He will be very displeased with you if you don't refer to them as "Burns and Rafay". Burns is an evil, narcissistic sociopath, and both are demonstrably guilty. Convicted based on confessions caught on tape, amongst other evidence and eyewitness testimony.

Your poor choice of example does not however invalidate the point it was intended to support.
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Heh.

"Convicted based on confessions caught on tape."

Now there, boys and girls, is naked sophistry tanning on a beach towel.

Burns may or may not be an "evil, narcissistic sociopath." I am of the view that criminal convictions should be based on credible, reliable evidence rather than glib character assessments.
 
As this has come up again recently, I'd like to repost where Massei describes the prosecution argument for the breaking of the glass. It starts with his argument that Sergent Pasquali's presentation showing how the glass was broken from a rock thrown from outside the cottage was not good enough so he came up with this gem instead. Here it is preserved in glorious wall of text style:

Given that they had 180,000 for the video it would seem that testing the actual window or facsimile would have advanced understanding of how things would have resulted from different theories of how the rock was thrown far more than a cartoon.
 
Pfffffffffffft

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Amy it's the definition. Jimmied doesn't mean propped open - it means breaking in - why not say she could have just bombed the front door?

Hello, her roommate had just been killed. You didn't just say she looked stressed, you made that look back your assertion that she might of slipped out that night and heard the attack IIRC.

Obviously you meant to say doesn't make her a murderer but it's semantics right :p

Sure I believe you, but why would think of that idea except it fit with the accusation? And it's et al. not et. al. :o

As Steve Martin said it's "just impossible to get a Cadillac up your nose"...

but you are free to believe it can be done :p
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You should do stand up comedy, with all those doodle faces you make.

I did say she looked more than just stressed (and many other things), but I don't like typing out everything I have already typed before over and over and over, so I condense.

Sue me. I'm not the one saying Raffaele and Amanda killed Meredith et. al. pffffft,

d

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Can see the judge looking at the last few pages of this thread to see why kind of insane story he can come up with :D

One item though, read the suggestion that because of the town that Rudy should have known some English. . . .Why didn't the cops?

Also, I am curious with cops in general in Europe. Would have been around 1988. I was lost in Toulon France with another crew of my ship. Saw a cop so asked for directions. He litteral fluffed us off onto a passer by. Is that still common?

I was lost within the last couple of year or so locally (within the US) but just an area I never go. The cop escorted me to where I was trying to go.
 
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Sue me. I'm not the one saying Raffaele and Amanda killed Meredith et. al.

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Someone is saying that they killed more people than just Meredith?

Of course Amanda was stressed after her roommate was killed. The idea that she went to the cottage as Raf dozed at 9:15 and "jimmied" the door so she could get back in and turned her phone off and had Raf turn his off leaving no way to reach him if the door was unjimmied by another resident just is a hard sell :eek:
 
Can see the judge looking at the last few pages of this thread to see why kind of insane story he can come up with :D

One item though, read the suggestion that because of the town that Rudy should have known some English. . . .Why didn't the cops?

Also, I am curious with cops in general in Europe. Would have been around 1988. I was lost in Toulon France with another crew of my ship. Saw a cop so asked for directions. He litteral fluffed us off onto a passer by. Is that still common?

I was lost within the last couple of year or so locally (within the US) but just an area I never go. The cop escorted me to where I was trying to go.

My experience in Paris was the same as yours. When I speculated on Rudy speaking English it was because it is a college town that caters to foreigners and Rudy was a guy that liked to hang with the foreign girls. English would be the language that work with more students than any other except Italian. The cops, not so much.
 
What does creep Amanda out is the contents of the toilet in the older women's bathroom. That was ugly. And it was completely out of the realm of what she'd come to expect in that house. Yes, enough to get out of there and bring back Raffaele . . . though she's already second-guessing herself as she describes it to him. There's no hurry. It's probably nothing. Let's eat breakfast first.

This is exactly what women do when they don't want to look like ninnies. Get spooked, downplay the reason, distrust their own instincts. I've done it, my grown daughters have done it, and if you ask any hundred women I think you'll find that a majority of them know exactly what I mean.

In that Guardian story published the other day, the writer describes this exact tendency in Amanda, as he's observed it over the past six years. She doesn't want to look weak.

Good analysis. If the Italian justice system could think this clearly, we would no longer be talking about this case. :D
 
Really?

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Raf thinking he was god's gift to women after landing Amanda going to have sex with Meredith makes more sense and fits with Rudy's Skype story. Obviously he wouldn't tell Amanda or anybody else about it. I'll bet donuts to dollars that he had Xanax from his dad.
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Really Grinder, you think this is more probable than Amanda slipping out for about 15 minutes while Raffaele dozed for a couple minutes?

Xanax is an ok choice, but unless you shoot it up, or snort it, it takes more than just a few minutes to take affect, but it also tends to wipe out your memory for a bit even while you're still conscious; so, that means Raffaele would have had to have given it to her at about or just before 8:28, and a whole pill, unless you've done it before, it can knock you out for anywhere from 2 to 6 to as much as 12 hours.

Plus, your scenario has Raffaele killing Meredith. When did it become fashionable to kill the girl over the guy and then make a deal with the guy to keep quiet? And it also means the break-in was staged and that Meredith did want to have sex with both Rudy and Raffaele.

That is way less probable, in my opinion, than my 'Amanda sneaking out for 15 minutes' theory.

Why didn't she tell Raffaele? I don't know, but once she's committed down that route, there is really no turning back, in my opinion,

d

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Not 9:15

Someone is saying that they killed more people than just Meredith?

Of course Amanda was stressed after her roommate was killed. The idea that she went to the cottage as Raf dozed at 9:15 and "jimmied" the door so she could get back in and turned her phone off and had Raf turn his off leaving no way to reach him if the door was unjimmied by another resident just is a hard sell :eek:
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I never said 9:15. I said after Rudy had gotten rid of phones, coming down from his adrenalin high, thinking he's busted so why not go back and see if he can find some more cash or a little more of the heave and ho and goes back and that's when Amanda comes home and hears scary things behind Meredith's door.

I have posted this theory many times before, and I guess you never read that version.

The luminol and blood mix don't prove anything because maybe they returned late enough so much of the blood footprints had dried so they were able to not leave a trace of going in and out by then.

Remember, the first official sighting I've found of Rudy at the clubs dancing was about 12 midnight.

It's all possible in my opinion, although not exactly probable or provable,

d

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