Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

Status
Not open for further replies.
Jimmying locked front doors

-

PGP hat on

She had written about a rape and had planned her revenge against Meredith for days. She had tried to hook up the night before and kill her then.

That's why they were in the plaza watching. Or they went to the cottage and were there when she returned after faking the computer activity. Or they showed up around 9:45 with Rudy and killed her. Or they showed up at 9:45 and Rudy was already there with the drugs.

Amanda bumped into him on the street after learning she wasn't working but while still thinking Raf would be taking Popovic to the bus station and arranged to meet him at the cottage with drugs and she planned to use rent money to pay for it.

See this NPR story on coincidence. Rudy didn't participate in the cleanup or cover-up.

More likely Raf gave her a Xanax and went over to have sex with Meredith, found Rudy there, was outraged and killed her. Amanda with phones off wouldn't leave the flat without a key.
Three people and drugs is all you need.

There everything covered except that damn chief of police and the knew it was correct - maybe one of the true guilters could help with that...not.
-

I have lived in apartment buildings that have locking front doors. You couldn't do it as easily during the day, but around ten or later, I could easily jimmy the door so it doesn't close and lock. Amanda not having a key is not a good arguement.

It's a better arguement when you are trying to get into an apartment building without a key, but when it's relatively easy enough to jimmy a door when you are leaving a building so you can get back in a few minutes,

but that's me,

d

-
 
Last edited:
PGP hat on

She had written about a rape and had planned her revenge against Meredith for days. She had tried to hook up the night before and kill her then.

That's why they were in the plaza watching. Or they went to the cottage and were there when she returned after faking the computer activity. Or they showed up around 9:45 with Rudy and killed her. Or they showed up at 9:45 and Rudy was already there with the drugs.

Amanda bumped into him on the street after learning she wasn't working but while still thinking Raf would be taking Popovic to the bus station and arranged to meet him at the cottage with drugs and she planned to use rent money to pay for it.

See this NPR story on coincidence. Rudy didn't participate in the cleanup or cover-up.

More likely Raf gave her a Xanax and went over to have sex with Meredith, found Rudy there, was outraged and killed her. Amanda with phones off wouldn't leave the flat without a key.

Three people and drugs is all you need.

There everything covered except that damn chief of police and the knew it was correct - maybe one of the true guilters could help with that...not.

Pretty persuasive, Grinder. But you left out someone. I think Sophie was involved. Maybe to get Meredith back to Meredith's place. Isn't that her in the parking lot video following behind Meredith to make sure Meredith went home as wanted? Sophie was seen dancing with guys at the disco the previous weekend. And she is known to be a heavy abuser of alcohol. Remember, too, Sophie left the country soon after the investigation started before it got hot. Is that her footprint on the bathmat? :rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
Nothing is impossible... just not always probable

-

PGP hat on

<SNIP>

See this NPR story on coincidence. Rudy didn't participate in the cleanup or cover-up.
<SNIP>

-
-

If you look close enough and long enough, you can find coincidences in almost everything that happens.

I'm not saying coincidences are impossible. I don't think anything is impossible, just not always probable, and that's what I try to base most of my arguements on, and to me when you try to put a lot of low probability events together to prove one big low probability event, coincidence becomes less and less probable, but that's just me.

Your mileage may vary,

d

-
 
Last edited:
Get it right

I don't know. They convicted Rafay and Burns in Seattle, and they are innocent, or at least, the only evidence against them is bogus...

He will be very displeased with you if you don't refer to them as "Burns and Rafay". Burns is an evil, narcissistic sociopath, and both are demonstrably guilty. Convicted based on confessions caught on tape, amongst other evidence and eyewitness testimony.

Your poor choice of example does not however invalidate the point it was intended to support.
.
.
 
NancyS,

As others have done elsewhere, I attempted to compile some information about this from the medical literature. The definition of T(lag) might require some further clarification.

Thanks, that is all really interesting

I agree that it was interesting. The discussion on stomach emptying at the injustice Anywhere forum was more detailed than what I recall seeing here and the Halkides article gave a very concise overview of the issue.

I did make an attempt to understand what was being said and I think I succeeded at that. The problem is without the appropriate expertise I didn't know enough to make a useable conclusion or even summary. But I'll attempt it anyway.

1. The facts concerning the time of Meredith's food consumption based on the times testified to by her friends are:
6:00 PM -start eating a pizza meal
6:15 PM - finish eating a pizza meal
7:35 PM - eat an apple crumble
7:45 PM - finish eating an apple crumble

The above times are assumed to be fairly accurate because the start and stop times around the eating of the food seem to have been fairly well known.

2. There's not a lot of exactly on point sources about the time that the stomach begins emptying from the start of the last meal. Sometimes an estimate of the time before the onset of stomach emptying is estimated to be about 1/2 the time it takes for the stomach to empty entirely from a meal. The type of food being digested is one of the things that can effect the time before the partly digested food (chyme) begins to leave the stomach

3. A new issue was brought up at a PGP blog: Perhaps the time at which the food begins to leave the stomach is delayed when additional food (referring in this case to the apple crumble consumed at 7:45) is added to the stomach.

4. There is also the possibility that Meredith's twenty minute walk home from the party might have been stressful enough to delay the onset of the movement of chyme into the duodenum.

5. The stomach is not a simple bag. It has different areas and the new food could move to the upper section (proximal) while the chyme in the lower section (distal) began to move into the duodenum.

6. There was a theory about a second meal from a PGP that seems too unlikely to consider.

7. There are two reasons to believe that stomach emptying had not begun at the time that Kercher was murdered:
a. Chyme was not found in her duodenum
b. The amount of food in her stomach was consistent with the size of the meal that she probably ate.

Conclusions
I do have a conclusion. Unfortunately I think the value of the conclusion is limited to something that is not sufficiently supported because of my lack of expertise and understanding of the subject to make it of much value to anybody else but me.

I suspect that the estimate of half the time to empty the stomach for stomach emptying to begin is right. This number would need to be determined by an expert that took into account the nature of the food that Kercher ate. However I assume that the 4-5 hours put forth in the article linked to above (http://kermit-analysis.wikispaces.com/Empty-Duodenum) is correct. This produces a range of 2 to 2.5 hours for the stomach to begin to empty. Two to 2.5 hours is roughly consistent with the 2-3 hour estimate of the pathologist, Lalli.

This suggests that the stomach might have begun to empty as early as 8:15 and as late as 8:45. Or as late as 9:15 if Lalli's estimate is used.

I also suspect that the apple crumble and the dark walk home did delay the onset of movement of the chyme into the duodenum somewhat.

Altogether this suggests very strongly that Kercher was murdered, as has been suggested many times in this thread, very close to the time she got home at 9:05.

If my conclusion is correct, then AK & RS have a very strong alibi for the time of the murder based on the computer activity on Sollecito's computer at 9:10 and even stronger alibi based on the start of the cartoon at 9:26 if this is a reliable data point.

It also looks like this issue has been poorly understood by the defense and the court. But apparently what I thought was the defense response was a summary of what the defense response was by the Massei court. Is the actual defense response on this point not available?

I hope that Rolfe will comment on this issue. I realize that she has commented on the issue several times, but I didn't understand enough at those times to fully digest what she was saying.
 
Last edited:
Porn alert

-

Porn companies are not known for their taste AFAIK.

Now admittedly offering a convicted sex killer a gig might appear dubious but she has a lot of 'fans'* out there & the bottom line is the bottom line.

Go figure.

* whose interest could hardly be described as tasteful.
-

To send out a speculative proposal (via press release, privately agent to agent, or through the rumour mill), would make good business sense... for the porn industry anyway.

It is the porn industry after all and I could honestly see Hustler doing it. Larry Flynt is no stranger to legal controversy,

d

-
 
Last edited:
I have lived in apartment buildings that have locking front doors. You couldn't do it as easily during the day, but around ten or later, I could easily jimmy the door so it doesn't close and lock. Amanda not having a key is not a good arguement.


You could do it easy because you know the schedule of your neighbors and trust that one won't use that door thus locking you out.

Amanda and the rest of the girls at the cottage are mechanically clueless. Laura's handyman friend apparently jimmy'd their front door in mid October and they all accepted that they just needed to lock the door with their key to keep it from blowing open in the wind.


Has it been asked how Amanda got in when she returned from the cottage that next morning? Her usual routine was that she would go home to shower and change then go to school or Raffaele would meet her at the cottage. I suppose Raffaele could have buzzed her in even if he had to get out of the shower to do it.
 
-


-

If you look close enough and long enough, you can find coincidences in almost everything that happens.

I'm not saying coincidences are impossible. I don't think anything is impossible, just not always probable, and that's what I try to base most of my arguements on, and to me when you try to put a lot of low probability events together to prove one big event, coincidence becomes less and less probable, but that's just me.

Your mileage may vary,

d

-

The point isn't that "anything is possible" It's about probabilities and the available evidence.

I mean if they had found Amanda's clothes covered in Meredith's blood in a dumpster a block away or the CCTV camera of Amanda and Raffaele entering the cottage at 9:15, then you have to ignore that this is an absurd scenario. It clearly happened, But that's not the reality in this case. The evidence is very suspect and the scenario is absurd and unknown in the the annals of criminal history.

If you prescribe to Occam's razor, then you accept the prosaic, common burglary scenario every day and twice on Sunday. Add in the available evidence and it's a slam dunk.
 
Last edited:
You could do it easy because you know the schedule of your neighbors and trust that one won't use that door thus locking you out.

Amanda and the rest of the girls at the cottage are mechanically clueless. Laura's handyman friend apparently jimmy'd their front door in mid October and they all accepted that they just needed to lock the door with their key to keep it from blowing open in the wind.


Has it been asked how Amanda got in when she returned from the cottage that next morning? Her usual routine was that she would go home to shower and change then go to school or Raffaele would meet her at the cottage. I suppose Raffaele could have buzzed her in even if he had to get out of the shower to do it.

Your post prompts a question. What is the guilter explanation for Amanda claiming to have found the front door unlocked? I mean, they must have locked the door when they left. Or maybe not. Maybe they were so freaked they just headed back to Raf's.

Either way, as it was open to Amanda to claim the door was open or not, why did she choose the former when everybody thinks it so suspicious that this was something that would have put an innocent person on their guard?
 
Porn alert II

-

To send out a speculative proposal (via press release, privately agent to agent, or through the rumour mill), would make good business sense... for the porn industry anyway.

It is the porn industry after all and I could honestly see Hustler doing it. Larry Flynt is no stranger to legal controversy,

d

-
-

Plus there's a whole sub-level of cartoon (anime, hentai, graphic novels etc.) and parody (Simpsons, Family Guy, I Dream of Jeannie, Sarah Palin etc.) porn out there and let's not forget John Bobbitt or the whole "Paris Hilton - Sex Tape" incident,

d

-
 
Last edited:
And they also need to be seen in the square by Curatolo at 9:28, meet Guede and go back to the cottage - and allow Guede time to do a poo. It gets more and more unlikely, unless you start disregarding prosecution evidence as well as defence evidence

Hmm. Maybe Rudy Guede goes back to Raffaele's to watch Naruto while Amanda and Raffaele hang out in the plaza all night pointing at Amanda's house? But then we need Amanda and Raffaele to get home again and take over the computer while Rudy disposes of the phones, dances at Domus and so on. We need a fourth accomplice! I say we draft Kokomani.

Plus someone has to stage the break-in at some point, and it has to be Amanda and Raffaele who do that or else it's no fun for pro-guilt posters. Given Curatolo's testimony and the car that broke down outside the murder house it's kind of hard to fit that in but I guess we can say Curatolo took his eye off them for ten minutes so they could rush in, stage a break-in, clean up their bloody footprints and DNA with the magical mystery mop and rush back out to stand in the plaza some more before Curatolo even noticed they were gone.

It's a bit silly even by Agatha Christie standards but it might rise to the level of "maybe not totally impossible". That's good enough, right?

Or we could throw Curatolo under the bus, and pretend that this isn't a problem even though without Curatolo there is literally nothing placing Amanda and Raffaele outside Raffaele's house on the night of the murder. Why not? At this stage we're making up a Hail Mary story about how Raffaele and Amanda's involvement isn't physically impossible, so worrying about proof beyond reasonable doubt at this stage is silly.
 
But as out of context as the excerpt from the inquiry is regards the specific question you were addressing, it nevertheless highlights other problematic aspects of Douglas' work. For it is quite clear that- when looked at objectively and without the cherry picking- in reality Douglas' profile fits Guy Paul Morin about as well as a speedo fits a sumo wrestler.

Which begs the question, why then does John Douglas like to claim the profile fits like a glove?
.
.

For my money, this is a complete misunderstanding of what Douglas does, and how it fits into the larger picture.

Profilers like him have the ability to limit a suspect pool, particularly in cases where it is not always obvious who should be suspected.

Can Douglas get it wrong? Of course he can. However, profilers are not the investigative body, they are one tool among many that investigators use. The final call is with someone else, not Douglas.

I just don't get it. For my money, the ONLY reason to try to discredit Douglas in this thread is because he's expressed an opinion about this case. It is an expert opinion.
 
The point isn't that "anything is possible" It's about probabilities and the available evidence.

I mean if they had found Amanda's clothes covered in Meredith's blood in a dumpster a block away or the CCTV camera of Amanda and Raffaele entering the cottage at 9:15, then you have to ignore that this is an absurd scenario. It clearly happened, But that's not the reality in this case. The evidence is very suspect and the scenario is absurd and unknown in the the annals of criminal history.

If you prescribe to Occam's razor, then you accept the prosaic, common burglary scenario every day and twice on Sunday. Add in the available evidence and it's a slam dunk.
-

I don't subscribe to "Occums Razor" exactly, but it's definitely a good place to start, and except for the highlighted part above, I couldn't agree more with your statement, but still, for me, it's all about probabilities.

Statistics can be made to argue anything you want them to, but that doesn't mean that you should never argue them, that would really b e absurd. We need to start somewhere when critically analyzing something and probability is as good as anything. It's actually how prosecutors (at least in the US) organize cases, DNA evidence is based on probabilities and so is ALL circumstantial evidence.

If you ever read about the Bittaker and Norris case (Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy L. Norris), not to mention the Charles Manson case, you can see how two or more people could (against all odds, although lifestyles did lower the odds a bit) possibly find the perfect psychological partners with which to share the joy of killing, but what makes this scenario so absurd and improbable is that Amanda, Raffaele and Rudy are strangers and really only have 30 minutes to agree psychologically to first kill someone, but then also cover it up, (or whatever) and to not say anything about this for years, even be willing to go to jail for it (Raffaele), and that is what makes it truly absurd, in my opinion,

d

-
 
Last edited:
-

You could do it easy because you know the schedule of your neighbors and trust that one won't use that door thus locking you out.

Amanda and the rest of the girls at the cottage are mechanically clueless. Laura's handyman friend apparently jimmy'd their front door in mid October and they all accepted that they just needed to lock the door with their key to keep it from blowing open in the wind.

Has it been asked how Amanda got in when she returned from the cottage that next morning? Her usual routine was that she would go home to shower and change then go to school or Raffaele would meet her at the cottage. I suppose Raffaele could have buzzed her in even if he had to get out of the shower to do it.
-

All good points, but even then, if the door is unjimmied that means more traffic which means someone else could let you in who was returning home, using a lot of excuses, garbage, Raffaele's my boyfriend, forgot my key, blah blah, or the renter might even recognize Amanda.

A jimmied door with a note about "moving furniture" has let me keep the door open a couple times, plus hitting all the call buttons, chances are one person might let you in.

And THE MOST IMPORTANT THING since she didn't go out to kill anyone, even if the door was locked when she got back, there was no evil intent or forethought to commit evil, so she didn't care if someone unjimmied the door or closed it, she knew she could get back in. It would just be faster to get back in after getting something she forgot while Raffaele dozed for a minute.

It was no big deal when she left, but hearing those things behind Meredith's door scared her and for some reason she didn't tell Raffaele about it and luckily she didn't have to because the door was still jimmied when she got back,

d

-
 
Last edited:
-

I don't subscribe to "Occums Razor" exactly, but it's definitely a good place to start, and except for the highlighted part above, I couldn't agree more with your statement, but still, for me, it's all about probabilities.

Statistics can be made to argue anyway you want them go, but that doesn't mean that you should never argue them, that really is absurd. We need to start somewhere when critically analyzing something and probability is as good as anything. It's actually how prosecutors (at least in the US) organize cases, DNA evidence is based on probabilities and so is ALL circumstantial evidence.

If you ever read about the Bittaker and Norris case (Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy L. Norris), not to mention the Charles Manson case, you can see how two or more people could possibly (against all odds) find the perfect psychological partners with which to share the joy of killing, but what makes this scenario so absurd and improbable is that Amanda, Raffaele and Rudy are strangers and really only have 30 minutes to agree psychologically to first kill someone, but then also cover it up, (or whatever) and to not say anything about this for years, even be willing to go to jail for it (Raffaele), and that is what makes it absurd,

d

-

I'm not familiar with Bittaker and Norris case..I'll look into that. But I''m very familiar with the Manson case. I read Bugliosi's "Helter Skelter" twenty years ago. The Manson Family was about as dysfunctional a group that you will ever want to meet. Charlie and Tex Watson had both spent long stretches in jail and prison. Their was the combination of long spells of drug abuse and addiction and an escalation of crimes. They had committed burglaries and the girls were having sex with Spahn so they could stay at the ranch .

Everyone remembers just how crazy Charlie was, but people forget. Charlie wasn't at either the Tate or the LaBianca Murders. I'm convinced that if Tex Watson wasn't there, the girls wouldn't have killed anyone.

Nothing compares from the Manson murders to the scenario to this case. You didn't need a medical degree to recognize that there were serious psychological problems with that group of people.
 
Last edited:
Your post prompts a question. What is the guilter explanation for Amanda claiming to have found the front door unlocked? I mean, they must have locked the door when they left. Or maybe not. Maybe they were so freaked they just headed back to Raf's.

Either way, as it was open to Amanda to claim the door was open or not, why did she choose the former when everybody thinks it so suspicious that this was something that would have put an innocent person on their guard?

From what I have read from oro guilt posters, the believe Amanda lied about finding the door open. As everyone knows, people should immediately assume murder, rape and mayhem upon finding a door open instead of something implausible like your flatmate not locking the deadbolt.
 
-

To send out a speculative proposal (via press release, privately agent to agent, or through the rumour mill), would make good business sense... for the porn industry anyway.

It is the porn industry after all and I could honestly see Hustler doing it. Larry Flynt is no stranger to legal controversy,

d

I have seen several news headlines over the years where a young otherwise-anonymous woman's identity is tied to a sensational event and some pornographer releases a press release saying they are offering her money to be a porn star. It is apparently all about publicity for the porn company's brand, and there is no reason to believe that the young woman has any interest in that sort of thing. In fact, it is quite possible that the porn entity that released the press release has not even succeeded in communicating directly with the woman.

There is some similarity between what the porn entity announces it wants to do and what the Italian guys downstairs did in talking about Meredith and Amanda, where one or several of them, including Rudy who was there once for it, saying they would like to "do" one or both of them.
 
-


-

All good points, but even then, if the door is unjimmied that means more traffic which means someone else could let you in who was returning home, using a lot of excuses, garbage, Raffaele's my boyfriend, forgot my key, blah blah, or the renter might even recognize Amanda.

A jimmied door with a note about "moving furniture" has let me keep the door open a couple times, plus hitting all the call buttons, chances are one person might let you in.

And THE MOST IMPORTANT THING since she didn't go out to kill anyone, even if the door was locked when she got back, there was no evil intent or forethought to commit evil, so she didn't care if someone unjimmied the door or closed it, she knew she could get back in. It would just be faster to get back in after getting something she forgot while Raffaele dozed for a minute.

It was no big deal when she left, but hearing those things behind Meredith's door scared her and for some reason she didn't tell Raffaele about it and luckily she didn't have to because the door was still jimmied when she got back,

d

-

I am perplexed why you and others speculate in this way? There is no evidence that Amanda secretly left Raffaele's flat, went to her place, and participated in or overlapped with a murder. If I understand you correctly, the time period about which you are speculating irresponsibly is much later at night than the duodenum-proved time-of-death.

You might as well speculate that a Perugia police officer on motorcycle was on standby to rush Amanda by motorcycle through the narrow streets to her flat and back so that it was a quick trip. Can you speculate about it? Yes. Will a motorcycle fit in the narrow streets of Perugia? Yes. Is there a grain of evidence? No.
 
Astronomy

-

I'm not familiar with Bittaker and Norris case..I'll look into that. But I''m very familiar with the Manson case. I read Bugliosi's "Helter Skelter" twenty years ago. The Manson Family was about as dysfunctional a group that you will ever want to meet. Charlie and Tex Watson had both spent long stretches in jail and prison. Their was the combination of long spells of drug abuse and addiction and an escalation of crimes. They had committed burglaries and the girls were having sex with Spahn so they could stay at the ranch .

Everyone remembers just how crazy Charlie was, but people forget. Charlie wasn't at either the Tate or the LaBianca Murders. I'm convinced that if Tex Watson wasn't there, the girls wouldn't have killed anyone.
Nothing compares from the Manson murders to the scenario to this case. You didn't need a medical degree to recognize that there were serious psychological problems with that group of people.
-

you could probably make a good arguement to prove your point and I really wouldn't argue with you much, except Susan Atkins I think might have done it anyway, but that is neither here nor there.

I linked to the Wikipedia about the Bittaker and Norris case in my OP:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Bittaker_and_Roy_Norris

The Manson case just makes the case that it's not impossible for two or more people to psychologically bind in a group murder, but not strangers, and in 30 minutes time? The odds, in my opinion, are too astronomical to be considered even remotely probable, but still possible,

d

-
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom