Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Grinder]

The possibility that you may be mistaken never enters your mind?

Sure but about what?

Originally Posted by Grinder View Post
Damn when dealing with the Italian legal system you've taken my core argument off the table. Lalli, the original coroner, stated in court that the time to move into the duodenum is 2 to 4 hours. That would put the very outside time to 10:30 if the dinner was not started until 6:30.

The theory of the late TOD developed well into the case as none of the witnesses came forward until month after the murder. The prosecution seemed to change their own much earlier time frame to fit Curatolo and Nara et al. and perhaps the defense was wary to fight for an obvious earlier time as they feared the prosecution were setting them up. Keep in mind I'm not allowed to use incompetence.

For me and many here EVERY piece of known evidence points to an early TOD. Nothing points to a late TOD except fitting in Curatolo and to a lesser extent the ear witnesses.

I wish that the defense would let us in on why they didn't pound the digestive evidence on top of the phone activity, the only witness that saw something at the time (Formica) even if it wasn't Rudy said it was about 10:20.

Perhaps they thought it was so obvious that the 11:30 TOD was ridiculous they didn't bother. It is inexplicable when incompetence is taken off the table.

 

[NancyS]

Is the defense confused or is it Massei? Massie would be quoting from the defense summary so I would reffer to that transcript to get a more accurate representation of their position. I find even 2-3 hours not to be representitave for T(lag). It's not been uncommon for posters to substitute T(1/2) when talking about gastric emptying time and I wouldn't be surprised to find Lalli had done the same.

If you had a name for this hypothetical expert of the prosecution I could search for his testimony.

I'm fairly confused about this - I've had a look through some of my old physiology books and they seem to suggest that the gastric phase is 3-4 hours long. However, if you google gastric emptying or start of intestinal phase, then you get information on T(lag) T(1/2) - and estimates of much shorter times for chyme to first enter the duodenum.

 

[acbytesla]

It means that Amanda must have never, at any time, been in Meredith's room.

Or you're wrong about Amanda shedding DNA like an old dog shedding hairs on the furniture.

Of course not. My guess is that if Stefanoni had taken more tests in Meredith's room eventually he may have found Amanda's DNA. I've always said that even if they found Amanda's DNA all over and throughout Meredith's bedroom, it would prove that she murdered Meredith, only that she had been in Meredith's room at some time which you can expect since she was Meredith's roommate.

What's significant....to a point...is none was found ais that they found 5 samples of Rudy's DNA who was never to have been known and had no reason at all to be in that bedroom. Frankly, I would discount much of the DNA evidence against Rudy. Far more incriminating his his palm prints and shoe prints in Meredith's blood.

You have Rudy on Skype..not to the police..not under interrogation saying to his friend that he was there during the murder and describing things that he could have only known had he been there..

You also have images of Rudy approaching the cottage right before Meredith.

You also have a history of Rudy breaking into homes.

That's incriminating...

What they have on Amanda and Raffaele are two samples of DNA...both very suspect. No palm or shoe prints in blood. No clothes covered in blood. No camera images of them approaching the cottage. No history of violence or anti social behavior.

 

[kwill]

It's really difficult to know - and I agree that he seems to have acted calmly when caught in other places. I would be interested to know who suggested he had a history of dissociating and fugue states. If this was assessed by a psychiatrist, would it be possible that he had diminished responsibility? Although he seemed to be acting fairly rationally afterwards by locking the door and leaving town - and obviously recalled being at the cottage.

I did a little bit of forensic psychiatry as a student and went to Broadmoor and interviewed a few people who had done horrendous things. I remember commenting to the psychiatrist afterwards how pleasant they had seemed - her thoughts were that in many ways they were 'normal' people, however, if someone made them angry at a time of great stress, they couldn't control their emotions and anger, which led to something horrific happening.

People who dissociate, will likely also experience episodes of hyperarousal - someone may appear calm, but they are like a coiled spring - if I was going to guess what happened, Meredith did something to anger Guede by screaming or resisting and he was unable to control his anger.

This is all a complete guess though and I'm no forensic psychiatrist - although may have some further training in the future and might then offer more insight

Does anyone know if this bit from the Burleigh book as quoted by Nancy is accurate?

Rudy would rise in the middle of the night and, using a dresser as a black board, teach a lesson as though he was a professor, moving seamlessly between Italian and English. The students found this particularly unsettling. When he awoke in the morning he had no memory of the event.

I thought Rudy didn't speak English very well, or not at all.

 

[AmyStrange]

Fairy Tale

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Don't forget the time needed for the clean-up! I think they could have done it the way Kevin Lowe times it (it is somebody else's fantasy) but they had accomplices to get it all done in time to get back to watch Naruto. It was Seal Team 6.

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And don't forget, it had to be planned impromptu, because Amanda originally had to work that night.

And, know exactly when Meredith was suppose to be home. I don't even think Meredith knew exactly when she was going to be home.

Plus Rudy. My understanding is he didn't have a phone, so how did they get all this planned, on the fly obviously, when one person doesn't even have a phone?

Plus, the chance of three psychological strangers having a meeting of the minds (and psychologies) to the point of allowing them to collectively kill someone and then participate in a cleanup and coverup. Even just two people doing that is a stretch, but has happened. I've only heard of this happening with multiple minds (three or more) in war time situations.

Can you imagine the improbability of all that. I mean, my theory that maybe Amanda slipped out later and went to get something over her house for a minute is more probable than the above fairy tale.

I mean, I know crowd psychology is real and can sometimes make people together do something they wouldn't normally do alone, but you need way more than three people for that kind of dynamic to work.

And again, this is just my opinion,

d

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[Grinder]

I thought Rudy didn't speak English very well, or not at all.

My experience is that A person like Rudy would have some English skills in a town like Perugia.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

gatric emptying

I'm fairly confused about this - I've had a look through some of my old physiology books and they seem to suggest that the gastric phase is 3-4 hours long. However, if you google gastric emptying or start of intestinal phase, then you get information on T(lag) T(1/2) - and estimates of much shorter times for chyme to first enter the duodenum.

NancyS,

As others have done elsewhere, I attempted to compile some information about this from the medical literature. The definition of T(lag) might require some further clarification.

 

[Grinder]

PGP hat on

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And don't forget, it had to be planned impromptu, because Amanda originally had to work that night.

She had written about a rape and had planned her revenge against Meredith for days. She had tried to hook up the night before and kill her then.

And, know exactly when Meredith was suppose to be home. I don't even think Meredith knew exactly when she was going to be home.

That's why they were in the plaza watching. Or they went to the cottage and were there when she returned after faking the computer activity. Or they showed up around 9:45 with Rudy and killed her. Or they showed up at 9:45 and Rudy was already there with the drugs.

Plus Rudy. My understanding is he doesn't have a phone, so how did they get all this planned, on the fly obviously, when one person doesn't even have a phone?

Amanda bumped into him on the street after learning she wasn't working but while still thinking Raf would be taking Popovic to the bus station and arranged to meet him at the cottage with drugs and she planned to use rent money to pay for it.

Plus, the chance of three psychological strangers having a meeting of the minds (and psychologies) to the point of allowing them to collectively kill someone and then participate in a cleanup and coverup.

See this NPR story on coincidence. Rudy didn't participate in the cleanup or cover-up.

Can you imagine the improbability of all that. I mean, my theory that maybe Amanda slipped out later and went to get something over her house for a minute is more probable than the above fairy tale.

More likely Raf gave her a Xanax and went over to have sex with Meredith, found Rudy there, was outraged and killed her. Amanda with phones off wouldn't leave the flat without a key.

I mean, I know crowd psychology is real and can sometimes make people together do something they wouldn't normally do alone, but you need way more than three people for that kind of dynamic to work.

Three people and drugs is all you need.

There everything covered except that damn chief of police and the knew it was correct - maybe one of the true guilters could help with that...not.

 

[NancyS]

NancyS,

As others have done elsewhere, I attempted to compile some information about this from the medical literature. The definition of T(lag) might require some further clarification.

Thanks, that is all really interesting

 

[lane99]

Nudge Nudge Wink Wink

Are you saying you think Douglas was paid off by somebody to support the case for innocence?

I doubt that anyone would be so unsophisticated as to be that blunt about it. But at minimum his objectivity is open to debate in at least several cases on that front.

And if you can't see the inherent pitfalls of criminal suspects paying Douglas to produce profiles (which perhaps not surprisingly invariably point away from themselves) you're just not looking hard enough.
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[lane99]

Typo

I googled this and it sounds like ya'll are talking about Billy Wayne Cope, not "Ray".

Correct. I otherwise deliberately provided enough background info so that anyone could google it and find the case if interested. And you'll have had no trouble doing so. Good.

Don't know how I could have made such a typo. It's not as if "Billy Ray" and "Billy Wayne" are any more similiar than "Billy Wayne" and " Billy Ahmadinejad".

BTW, Billy Wayne is as likely to be guilty as Rudy Guede is likely to be innocent. Anyone claiming to have a general interest in wrongful convictions should at least "like" his facebook page. Sadly, few do. His case is simply not nearly as sexy as the Amanda Knox case.

https://www.facebook.com/FreeBillyWayneCope
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[Strozzi]

. . . . And if you can't see the inherent pitfalls of criminal suspects paying Douglas to produce profiles (which perhaps not surprisingly invariably point away from themselves) you're just not looking hard enough...

Wow! If you say so, Lane99.

 

[Desert Fox]

You based your vote on false information? Sad.

No quite that bad. All I had were a couple of ambiguous statements and where they went to college. I voted for the one who did NOT go to Regent University.

 

[Dan O.]

I thought Rudy didn't speak English very well, or not at all.

There was his vampire imitation video "I want to suck your blood". I recall that was English but maybe I'm just remembering the subtitles.

 

[Desert Fox]

No Rudy Guede murdered Meredith after being discovered burglarizing the cottage.

Oh, you mean the stupid, totally moronic theory that Amanda was some kind of femme fatale who managed to get her new boyfriend along with a total stranger to murder her new roommate for no reason whatsoever. And she was able to accomplish this through sex alone since she could barely communicate with either one because she had the vocabulary of a 5 year old.

I am doing a devil's advocate. I was seeing if I could find a more plausible situation than the court

Even if plausible, the evidence still does not fit. Really expect something. Pretty small room, would expect more contact with walls and even tripping over each other.

edit: Of note, Ms Zamora was pretty anti-social, only concentrating on school work. Ms Knox on the other hand is pretty social, had plenty of friends and boyfriends. Completely different personally types from the way it looks.

 

[davefoc]

...

If you had a name for this hypothetical expert of the prosecution I could search for his testimony.

I made him up completely. If it would help I could make up a name for him as well.

 

[Kestrel]

Shouldn't a skeptic examine an expert's report looking for errors in fact and reason rather than fall for a simple ad hominum attack?

 

[AmyStrange]

PGP hat on


She had written about a rape and had planned her revenge against Meredith for days. She had tried to hook up the night before and kill her then.


That's why they were in the plaza watching. Or they went to the cottage and were there when she returned after faking the computer activity. Or they showed up around 9:45 with Rudy and killed her. Or they showed up at 9:45 and Rudy was already there with the drugs.


Amanda bumped into him on the street after learning she wasn't working but while still thinking Raf would be taking Popovic to the bus station and arranged to meet him at the cottage with drugs and she planned to use rent money to pay for it.


See this NPR story on coincidence. Rudy didn't participate in the cleanup or cover-up.


More likely Raf gave her a Xanax and went over to have sex with Meredith, found Rudy there, was outraged and killed her. Amanda with phones off wouldn't leave the flat without a key.



Three people and drugs is all you need.
There everything covered except that damn chief of police and the knew it was correct - maybe one of the true guilters could help with that...not.

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I disagree with your PGP hat analaysis. I don't think it's highly probable (except in war time situations) that three complete strangers meeting up impromptu, and on the fly, and all on drugs, psychologically bonding, killing, covering up (staged break-in), cleaning up (even if it's only two cleaning up their traces), and then continuing this fantasy afterwards for years on end AND ALL OF THIS coming together shortly after 9:05 when Meredith gets home.

Even with two people it's a stretch (but possible as you've described above), and except in a time of war, have I ever heard of three almost complete strangers (psychologically connecting like that in less than thirty minutes, being led by Amanda especially since Rudy doesn't look like the follower type) is way less probable than my 'Amanda maybe sneaking out while Raffaele dozes for a few minutes' theory.

That looks more probable than "Three people and drugs is all you need,"

in my opinion,

d

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[Desert Fox]

The possibility that you may be mistaken never enters your mind?

Question is if it ever does with you?
The only evidence you have a half ass confession and a couple of items of DNA evidence (that the most positive light answer that can be done is that it was contamination)
Even if you think "maybe she is guilty", there is not just reasonable doubt but extreme doubt.

 

[lane99]

Eat your heart out, "Eyes for Lies"

It's true: Douglas is not a psychic and he can't guess who the guilty person is...

Don't tell him that. A quote from an interview with Dateline:

"I sat down across the table from some of the country's greatest liars--in the world, really--and I can sense it and if things just did not fit..."

...Here's some information about Douglas' profile and the role it played:

"A number of these points could not relate to Guy Paul Morin in any way....In summary, it could not reasonably be said that the profile matched or even closely resembled Guy Paul Morin..."

http://netk.net.au/Canada/Morin30.asp

Emphasis mine.

Yes, emphasis yours. De-emphasis yours, too. And not included in what you quoted are elements of Douglas' profile which seem completely random and unrelated to a typical murder of this kind...but, curiously, echo particular idiosyncratic characteristics of Morin. And just how did those elements end up in Douglas' profile is the crux of the matter regards to suspicions he custom fitted the profile to point the finger at an pre-existing suspect (Morin).

But as out of context as the excerpt from the inquiry is regards the specific question you were addressing, it nevertheless highlights other problematic aspects of Douglas' work. For it is quite clear that- when looked at objectively and without the cherry picking- in reality Douglas' profile fits Guy Paul Morin about as well as a speedo fits a sumo wrestler.

Which begs the question, why then does John Douglas like to claim the profile fits like a glove?
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