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[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Jabba said:
Pixel,
- Superficially at least, I think that you have also identified the heart of the matter... As I now see the discussion, a lot of you have... I think that while I was trying to be "methodical," you guys had cut to the chase, and I just didn't realize what was happening until now... We'll see.
- In order for my thesis to work, I need to be "special." If I am just "anyone," the likelihood of my current existence, given "X," is (I suppose) 1.00.
- If I'm currently right about this, I'm sorry for my tardiness.
Click to expand...

Given that this was pointed out to you on page 3 of this thread (and, in fact, earlier than that in the Shroud thread) and repeatedly by many people since, and that it was explicitly stated to be the heart of the matter, I hope that from this realisation you take on board the fact that you don't seem to read other people's posts properly and endeavour to start actually doing so. Start from the premise that perhaps other people might have points which are worth listening to, rather than that you're necessarily right and if people disagree with you then they just don't understand what you're saying.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Given that this was pointed out to you on page 3 of this thread (and, in fact, earlier than that in the Shroud thread) and repeatedly by many people since, and that it was explicitly stated to be the heart of the matter, I hope that from this realisation you take on board the fact that you don't seem to read other people's posts properly and endeavour to start actually doing so. Start from the premise that perhaps other people might have points which are worth listening to, rather than that you're necessarily right and if people disagree with you then they just don't understand what you're saying.
Click to expand...

^Excellent rejoinder^, but I expect the OP to be repeated again any day now by the same poster. Isn't that the definition of a fringe reset?
 
Jabba said:
Pixel,
- Superficially at least, I think that you have also identified the heart of the matter... As I now see the discussion, a lot of you have... I think that while I was trying to be "methodical," you guys had cut to the chase, and I just didn't realize what was happening until now... We'll see.
- In order for my thesis to work, I need to be "special." If I am just "anyone," the likelihood of my current existence, given "X," is (I suppose) 1.00.
- If I'm currently right about this, I'm sorry for my tardiness.

- I do think that I'm special in the necessary sense (as are you) -- and, in the posts to follow, I'll try to show you why I think that. I need to organize my argument, but I wanted to let you know that I think I finally discovered an important point that I had been missing all along...
Click to expand...

Once again, you post about what you intend to post at some undefined future time.

How about a change of pace. Instead of posting about what you want to post, just post whatever it is that you want to post.
 
Jabba said:
Pixel,
- Superficially at least, I think that you have also identified the heart of the matter... As I now see the discussion, a lot of you have... I think that while I was trying to be "methodical," you guys had cut to the chase, and I just didn't realize what was happening until now... We'll see.
- In order for my thesis to work, I need to be "special." If I am just "anyone," the likelihood of my current existence, given "X," is (I suppose) 1.00.
- If I'm currently right about this, I'm sorry for my tardiness.

- I do think that I'm special in the necessary sense (as are you) -- and, in the posts to follow, I'll try to show you why I think that. I need to organize my argument, but I wanted to let you know that I think I finally discovered an important point that I had been missing all along...
Click to expand...

Yo.

The likelihood of your current existence, given the fact of your current existence, is 1.
 
Slowvehicle said:
Yo.

The likelihood of your current existence, given the fact of your current existence, is 1.
Click to expand...

Even if it were 0, as he seems to be implying, the likelihood of a soul or God is also 0 due to lack of evidence. Therefore, according to his reasoning, we would need something else to explain God.

It's zeroes all the way down.
 
The Chase/My Need to be Special

- So. The basic issue is, "What makes me special -- what separates me from the crowd?
- That's the issue because if I am not somehow special, if I am not separated from the crowd, the "likelihood" of my current existence, according to the scientific opinion to which I've been referring, is not one over infinity (or, one over some unimaginably large number); it is 1.00.
- If I'm not separated from the crowd, my likelihood of existence is the likelihood of someone -- anyone -- existing. I take on the likelihood that any of the potential selves would currently exist...
- Remember that in Bayesian Statistics, "likelihood" means the probability of something happening, before it happens.

- Does anyone not understand, or disagree, with that?
 
I think we all agree with that, since that's what multiple posters have been saying to you for over 12 months.
 
Dave,
- I expected some to say that they didn't understand the way I said it -- or, even disagree with the way I said it.
 
That's what we've been saying, Jabba. That each of us is just as special as any other. You, me, everyone here, seven billion of us - we are special in our own subjective solipsist minds, but no more special than any other person when looked at objectively.

We've also said that working out the probability of a 'self' existing, prior to that existence, has nothing to do with immortality.

And that there was no Y in your formula.
 
Jabba said:
- So. The basic issue is, "What makes me special -- what separates me from the crowd?
- That's the issue because if I am not somehow special, if I am not separated from the crowd, the "likelihood" of my current existence, according to the scientific opinion to which I've been referring, is not one over infinity (or, one over some unimaginably large number); it is 1.00.
- If I'm not separated from the crowd, my likelihood of existence is the likelihood of someone -- anyone -- existing. I take on the likelihood that any of the potential selves would currently exist...
- Remember that in Bayesian Statistics, "likelihood" means the probability of something happening, before it happens.

- Does anyone not understand, or disagree, with that?
Click to expand...

I take it you mean anyone other than you, right?

Because you are still not on board with this concept. Or have you changed your opinion?
 
Jabba said:
- So. The basic issue is, "What makes me special -- what separates me from the crowd?
Click to expand...


A complete and irremedial inability to get to the point.



Jabba said:
- That's the issue because if I am not somehow special, if I am not separated from the crowd, the "likelihood" of my current existence, according to the scientific opinion to which I've been referring, is not one over infinity (or, one over some unimaginably large number); it is 1.00.
Click to expand...


The scientific opinion to which you've been referring doesn't exist.



Jabba said:
- If I'm not separated from the crowd, my likelihood of existence is the likelihood of someone -- anyone -- existing. I take on the likelihood that any of the potential selves would currently exist...
Click to expand...


So bloody what?



Jabba said:
- Remember that in Bayesian Statistics, "likelihood" means the probability of something happening, before it happens.
Click to expand...


That's what likelihood means in everyday English, Jabba.

You remind me of Lord Percy in Blackadder believing that he's about to shake the world with his discovery of "green"


​



Jabba said:
- Does anyone not understand, or disagree, with that?
Click to expand...


A better question might be "Does anyone care?"
 
Jabba said:
Pixel,
I do think that I'm special in the necessary sense (as are you) -- and, in the posts to follow, I'll try to show you why I think that. I need to organize my argument, but I wanted to let you know that I think I finally discovered an important point that I had been missing all along...
Click to expand...

Three days now. Are you there, Jabba?
 
In the Beginning

Humots,
- Yeah. I'm here. My grand kids have been sick.
- But also, I've been trying to put it all together at once, and have just now given up on that idea...

Anybody,
- As I understand it, the only explanation for the Anthropic Principle -- besides an amazing coincidence -- is multiverses. Is that correct?
 
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