Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd
The coldest weather in years will be making its presence known from the
Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region for the beginning of the work
week. The polar vortex, a mid-upper level cyclonic feature normally
present over northern Canada, will be displaced unusually far to the south
over the northern Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Owing to the deep
layer of the cold air mass, this will provide for an incredibly strong
surge of bitterly cold Arctic Air along with gusty winds. The Upper
Midwest will be affected first by Saturday night, and the brutal
conditions will continue pushing southeastward to the Ohio Valley and
Mid-South by Monday, and to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.
Particularly noteworthy will be the extreme wind chills and nearly
unheard-of daytime highs that are forecast.
Wind chill warnings are in
effect for many areas with wind chills on the order of -30 to -50 degrees
expected! Afternoon highs on Monday for parts of the Midwest states and
the Ohio Valley will fail to reach zero degrees!
 
How Solar Cycles Impact Our Weather Here On Earth
http://www.redorbit.com/education/r...olar-cycles-impact-our-weather-here-on-earth/

In an April 2, 2009 article, retired U.S. Navy physicist and engineer James A. Marusek writes: “The sun has gone very quiet as it transitions to Solar Cycle 24…. We are now at a crossroad. Two paths lie before us. Both are marked with a signpost that reads “Danger”! Down one path lies monstrous solar storms. Down the other path lies several decades of crushing cold temperatures and global famine.” “A quiet sun will cause temperatures globally to take a nose-dive. We will experience temperatures that we have not seen in over 200 years, during the time of the early pioneers.
http://www.examiner.com/article/sol...-crushing-cold-temperatures-and-global-famine

Sun's 11-year cycle means we're in for Arctic freeze this winter, say scientists
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-cycle-shows-Arctic-freeze-return-winter.html

Are You Prepared For An Extremely Bitterly Cold Winter? Solar Activity Is At A 100 Year Low
By Michael Snyder, on September 23rd, 2013
http://thetruthwins.com/archives/ar...ld-winter-solar-activity-is-at-a-100-year-low
 
I have what is probably a stupid question but maybe one that can honestly be answered here.

We have roughly 18 bazillion satellites in orbit carrying every imaginable manner of scientific instrument. We have to have dozens if not hundreds of incredibly precise thermometers outside of our atmosphere at this very moment.

Surely we have a good grasp on the temperature outside our atmosphere. If increased solar output was changing the Earth's temperature... we would know right?

ETA: Hey would you look at that.

http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/1997/essd06oct97_1/

Unlike the surface-based temperatures, global temperature measurements of the Earth's lower atmosphere obtained from satellites reveal no definitive warming trend over the past two decades. The slight trend that is in the data actually appears to be downward.
 
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“There are no grounds to claim that global warming will continue till the end of this century,” said academician Vladimir Kotlyakov, head of the Institute of Geography at the Russian Academy of Sciences. “Early signs of cooling are already there and the trend may pick up in coming years.” “Human activity and industrial discharges do have a great impact on environment, but forces of nature are far more powerful,” said the scientist, who has studied Antarctic ice cores that are hundreds of thousand years old. “Climate moves in natural cycles of warmer and colder, drier and more humid times.” –Vladimir Radyuhin,
http://sppiblog.org/news/russian-scientists-we-could-face-cooling-period-for-200-250-years

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. –The Voice of Russia, 22 April 2013
 
Hi MacDoc

Spain is a perfect example of what happens when the governments try to save the planet

After the Global warming scare Spain promoted Solar panels to generate electricity

The solar industry was subsidized by tax dollars to the tune of $10.6 billion

Government now going broke subsidizing solar energy

Government now heavily taxing people who use solar panels to generate their own electricity

This is a socialists dream, tax everybody to death and then tax the sun

We end up exchanging big oil for big government

Care to support these inaccurate assertions?
 
I have what is probably a stupid question but maybe one that can honestly be answered here.

We have roughly 18 bazillion satellites in orbit carrying every imaginable manner of scientific instrument. We have to have dozens if not hundreds of incredibly precise thermometers outside of our atmosphere at this very moment.

Surely we have a good grasp on the temperature outside our atmosphere. If increased solar output was changing the Earth's temperature... we would know right?

ETA: Hey would you look at that.

http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/1997/essd06oct97_1/

Aside from the fact that your link points to outdated and incorrect information that was refuted and discredited long ago.

That we have measured the temp. and solar radiation precisely from orbit is exactly the point.

"Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts and Choices"
National Research Council of the National Academies of Science
(http://dels.nas.edu/resources/stati...booklets/Climate-Change-Lines-of-Evidence.pdf)

Measures of the Sun’s Energy
Satellite measurements of the Sun’s energy incident on Earth, available since
1979, show no net increase in solar forcing during the past 30 years. They
show only small periodic variations associated with the 11-year solar cycle.
Source: National Research Council, 2010a

(Oh, for an updated and accurate feel for NASA's considerations regarding climate change, try - http://climate.nasa.gov/causes)
 
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Now isn't this remarkable?

4 years later, minus much of the hype, minus much of the fear-based profiteering, and things have shifted even more towards a more balanced, realistic view of the situation.

This article for the NY Times has come to my attention today, and though it's a few months old, I'm rather puzzled by the duplicity of it. It's the one where they talk about how global warming has been flat for the past 15 years. Maybe this has been covered in the forums before?

Anyways, here's a paragraph I don't get:

Now, here is a crucial piece of background: It turns out we had an earlier plateau in global warming, from roughly the 1950s to the 1970s, and scientists do not fully understand that one either. A lot of evidence suggests that sunlight-blocking pollution from dirty factories may have played a role, as did natural variability in ocean circulation. The pollution was ultimately reduced by stronger clean-air laws in the West.

So, they are saying that more pollution stabilized the world's temperature, but then when pollution was reduced, global warming increased over a 20 year period (mid 70's to late 90's) -- before becoming flat again for the past 15 years. That doesn't make any sense, does it? Unless you admit that AGW is a shaky concept (though certainly it isn't completely void, and does very likely exist, don't get me wrong!) Here's the link.

I also notice that they're using the rebranding of global warming and calling it climate change instead -- and yet they're using it exclusively to talk about global warming. The rebranding thing has been around for a few years now. It's fuzzy enough to be convenient, and a lot less difficult to discredit than global warming, as the whole history of the Earth is one of climate change, sometimes quite rapid, and that certainly isn't going to change.

I'm all for cutting out real pollution. And any thinking person is. However, reading this nonsense might give cause to wonder if it is a good idea for China and India and Russia to cut their air pollution nightmare as the West did decades ago. After all, if the global warming carbon connection is to be believed, and if the actual history is anything to go by, won't this spell a rapid rise in global temperature? After all, that's what happened according to the NY Times article.

But as somebody who uses logic and critical thinking no matter what the prevailing social consensus and pressure might be, I recognize that the only right course of action is to concentrate any efforts to clean up emissions right to its current offending source. We must all focus on pressuring China, India, Russia and the other leading growing sources of emissions to clean up their act. As the facts show, the AGW conspirators have no real idea of what they're talking about, can't predict anything, and make money only through fear mongering. However, that doesn't change the fact that China, India, Russia and friends are ruining the air quality not only for their own citizens, but with more and more spill over to the rest of us who have our act together.

Hey, wait a second, I just remembered that China, India, and Russia were the primary movers behind such UN legislation as the Kyoto Accord (and the infamous fudged UN report) and were to be the primary beneficiaries of all those carbon taxes! And now they're the biggest polluters. Gee willikers, that's probably all our faults for not signing on to the Kyoto scam.

Let me state that again: We who live in the so-called "first world" must all focus any and all effort on cutting emissions on China, India, and Russia. Any other approach is a foolish waste of time, and the most foolish thing of all would be for us to "carbon tax" ourselves for their carbon sins. That's reality.
 
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A bit more on Spain's Solar Issues

I believe Spain generates over 50% of electricity via solar panels renewables and now the government wants to tax it heavily.


(from the article)

On 1 August protesters, many of which were wearing solar panels, arrived outside a prison in Barcelona to “turn themselves in” for being supporters of solar energy that they claim the government’s hefty fines would effectively criminalise.

Spain’s draft laws that would make self-generated solar more expensive than regular grid electricity could expose the country’s banks to a €20 billion (US$26.6 billion) bubble, according to analysts NPD Solarbuzz.

Proposed new laws would fine those with solar panels making use of the old off-grid, self-consumption programme (known as “autoconsumo”) by as much as €30 million (US$39.9 million) if they did not connect to the grid.


http://www.pv-tech.org/news/npd_solarbuzz_spains_solar_u_turn_could_expose_20_billion_pv_bubble_5647
 
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Arizona Mulls Solar 'Tax'

SustainableBusiness.com News

The future of solar net metering in Arizona is under attack, with the state's largest utility Arizona Public Service (APS) proposing changes that undermine cost benefits for residential solar installations.

Under a plan submitted in July with the state's public utility commission, APS proposes two options for future residential solar customers – both of which will reduce potential financial returns homeowners would receive on their investment.

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/25103
 
What is worse .... Global Warming .... Big Oil .... Or Big Government .... ?????

Broken promises
This is just the latest in a series of setbacks for the renewable energy sector.
The government has gradually lowered a feed-in tariff - a scheme that paid people to produce their own "green electricity" - first reducing the period over which it was paid, then limiting it to already existing installations and finally an energy reform in July opened up the possibility of withdrawing it retroactively

"Many of these people are going to lose their houses (that they used as collateral to buy solar panels). They are unable to pay back at the bank. They can't sell the installations, because the government has made them toxic assets," Mr Holtrop says.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24272061
 
What is worse .... Global Warming .... Big Oil .... Or Big Government .... ?????

Broken promises
This is just the latest in a series of setbacks for the renewable energy sector.
The government has gradually lowered a feed-in tariff - a scheme that paid people to produce their own "green electricity" - first reducing the period over which it was paid, then limiting it to already existing installations and finally an energy reform in July opened up the possibility of withdrawing it retroactively

"Many of these people are going to lose their houses (that they used as collateral to buy solar panels). They are unable to pay back at the bank. They can't sell the installations, because the government has made them toxic assets," Mr Holtrop says.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24272061

Sovereign Risk is not something that Governments should be playing with. Spains problems are not because of the solar industry, but a speculation bubble in real estate and oil prices. A viable solar industry will actually help reduce reliance on oil.

The 2008–2013 Spanish financial crisis began as part of the world Late-2000s financial crisis and continued as part of the European sovereign debt crisis, which has affected primarily the southern European states and Ireland. In Spain, the crisis was generated by long-term loans (commonly issued for 40 years), the building market crash, which included the bankruptcy of major companies, and a particularly severe increase in unemployment, which rose to 29.16% by April 2013.[1]
Spain continued the path of economic growth when the ruling party changed in 2004, keeping robust GDP growth during the first term of prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, even though some fundamental problems in the Spanish economy were already evident. Among these, according to the Financial Times, there was Spain's huge trade deficit (which reached a staggering 10% of the country's GDP by the summer of 2008),[2] the "loss of competitiveness against its main trading partners" and, also, as a part of the latter, an inflation rate which had been traditionally higher than those of its European partners, back then especially affected by house price increases of 150% from 1998 and a growing family indebtedness (115%) chiefly related to the Spanish Real Estate boom and rocketing oil prices.[3]
 

Yes, the solar cycles will come and go, CO2 in the atmosphere is there for much longer. I don't know why the 'skeptics' have such a fixation on solar cycles. They are something that are completely independent of AGW cause by increased CO2.

The solar output has actually been declining already, but temperatures have still been rising. :eek:
 
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