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How To Use Bitcoin – The Most Important Creation In The History Of Man

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Scopedog said:
Study the charts long enough and they begin to study you.

ETA: I can't believe there's two MDC candidates in this thread (kevsta and wrs)
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I thought it was Wrs and Remirol, with kevsta and jhunter following close behind, but hey, it's hard to keep it all straight.
 
psionl0 said:
What a load of rubbish.
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Yea, given that there were bitcoin millionairs before then.

Belz... said:
A "prediction" that has no set time limit isn't much of a prediction: at no point can you say "here, you were wrong", because the person making the prediction can claim that it's not quite time yet.
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It's not necessary to even constrain it to a time limit, woo is woo.

Fortunately apparently jhunter isn't actively pledging alliance with the chart woo; we'd then be in the position of accusing a JREF moderator of woo. I guess actually that'd be a bit interesting, actually...

Two categories:

  • Person does not like/is skeptical about/does like bitcoin.
  • Person applies woo driven chart reading magic to subject of bitcoin (either likes or dislikes it)
 
bumped up out of the channel

Bitbulls got it going now.
 

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Belz... said:
A "prediction" that has no set time limit isn't much of a prediction: at no point can you say "here, you were wrong", because the person making the prediction can claim that it's not quite time yet.
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If you really want me to make a guess that you can hang me by then I might as well indulge you.

Bitcoin prices will probably follow a similar path to what they did during the Cyprus crisis. After the current kerfuffle settles down, the price will probability hover around the $800 mark for a few weeks before taking off again. It is not unreasonable to suppose that prices would hit the $2000 mark sometime before June next year. Of course, the volatility being what it is, it's anybody's guess what the actual price will be in June.

You can regard this prophecy to be a failure if the price doesn't exceed $1200 some time during the next 6 months, there is no recovery phase, the price hits the $1200 mark but then falls back and for most of the 6 months it doesn't exceed $1000 or if the price has dropped below $500 in June.
 
psionl0 said:
If you really want me to make a guess that you can hang me by then I might as well indulge you.

Bitcoin prices will probably follow a similar path to what they did during the Cyprus crisis. After the current kerfuffle settles down, the price will probability hover around the $800 mark for a few weeks before taking off again. It is not unreasonable to suppose that prices would hit the $2000 mark sometime before June next year. Of course, the volatility being what it is, it's anybody's guess what the actual price will be in June.

You can regard this prophecy to be a failure if the price doesn't exceed $1200 some time during the next 6 months, there is no recovery phase, the price hits the $1200 mark but then falls back and for most of the 6 months it doesn't exceed $1000 or if the price has dropped below $500 in June.
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I guess I'd opine the bitcoin will ignite it's solid rocket price boosters on certain types of events.

  • cyprus like government cofiscatory events, anywhere in the world
  • economic crises
  • currency problems, major like USD or Euro
  • Euro breakup
  • government/socialist takeover of industries/market segments
...And since these events are going to occur, there could be little downside risk in btc. In other words, even the guy that bought at 1264 or whatever the peak of the last game was, he'll be in fat city in 2016.
 
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Bitcoin options arrive http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-08/bitcoin-derivatives-market-has-arrived

Predictious is now bringing this to the next level by offering a new type of derivative contract: option spreads on the price of Bitcoin. In the past couple of weeks, Bitcoin has been extremely volatile, and it is important for traders to be able to reduce risk, and hedge their Bitcoin position. They can now do so in an easy and cost efficient way by using option spreads.

Option spreads are very versatile, while still offering limited risks. A bullish investor can use a vertical spread to benefit from Bitcoin gains, while limiting risks if the price crashes.

On the other hand, bearish investors can use them to short Bitcoin. Predictious is currently one of the most reliable way to do so. Since losses are limited with option spreads, investors are not exposed to counterparty risks, like they would be when trading futures on competing services.

Aside from Bitcoin traders, miners can also use spreads on the Bitcoin difficulty to reduce risks associated with investing in mining hardware.

...

To date, Predictious users have deposited over $300,000 in Bitcoin on the website.

“Traders are obviously very interested in Bitcoin derivatives, but the number of businesses accepting payments in Bitcoin has surged in the past few months”, said Flavien Charlon, Founder of Pixode, “those businesses have expenses in US Dollar, or Euro, and need to hedge their Bitcoin position. The type of derivatives we are offering will be very useful to them as well”.
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The bottom-line is that while we can see the 'use' of such a market to enabling some lower cost hedging of any wealth one might have gathered in Bitcoin, we suspect - just as in the case of many other assets - that the underlying asset will see its volatility rise as the derivative (and levered) markets becomes the tail that wags the dog.
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and it has to be said, for a bursting bubble it's quite resilient in it's reinflation efforts. I thought we would be bouncing off the underside of the rising support line and tracking down the new red down channel now, but the overnight breakout (yellow) is once again quite (unexpectedly?) bullish at this point, looks like we might get another look at $1000 again this week IMO.

if there are Bitwhales defining the tops with open ended sell orders until it rolls over, and then putting in the floor again with unlimited buy orders $4-500 lower, they're doing quite nicely with that every few days.

upchannel.jpg
 
It broke out of that long triangle and the channel at the very end of the triangle so it could run 300 points which would be around 1000 and since it already hit 982, I think it's done. This whole run was on very thin volume. We will see how it goes, this thing is way too expensive for what it is. This is a typical manipulation to try and bring suckers back in but it's too much too soon. Gold and silver made similar moves but not as extreme.

I am sticking with 500 or less by the end of the month, with 150 as the low end of the range.
 
Belz... said:
Your turn, Wrs: give us a timetable for that 150.
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I already did. 500 to 150 by the end of the month. Can't do better than that. I think this is a dead cat bounce on declining volume. It was a near perfect .62 retrace of the 666 point drop from 1242 t0 576. I guess it could still try to move higher but if it's A-B-C down, then we are about to do C and C=A plenty of times so that would be another 666 from around 1000 to 450 or less. Guess we will see if the bitbulls can roll the rock back up the hill or if it rolls back down on them.
 
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wrs said:
It broke out of that long triangle and the channel at the very end of the triangle so it could run 300 points which would be around 1000 and since it already hit 982, I think it's done. This whole run was on very thin volume. We will see how it goes, this thing is way too expensive for what it is. This is a typical manipulation to try and bring suckers back in but it's too much too soon. Gold and silver made similar moves but not as extreme.
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Gold and silver movements were influenced by the birth and propagation of massive amounts of paper gold. Since this is not possible with bitcoin, there is no parallel possible.

Regarding your typical wild assertion in bold above. I will introduce a direct comparable.

In 2002 Ebay bought Paypal for 1.5B. The prior year, Paypal had done 3.1B in payments, about 189,000 per day, and had a user base of 13 million in 39 countries.

The market 101 exercise is to answer the question

"What is the comparable market valuation of BItcoin today?"
 
kevsta said:
.....
if there are Bitwhales defining the tops with open ended sell orders until it rolls over, and then putting in the floor again with unlimited buy orders $4-500 lower, they're doing quite nicely with that every few days.
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You mean that if there are Bitwhales, who are ridiculously wealthy by having invested in bitcoin early, they must have a full time job trying every couple of days to prop the market up? And this full time job costs them money, since they lose every time they act?

So if you are extremely wealthy, you would work every day to lose money.

Got it! Brilliant! (not)....

Tell you what....(satirical, cynical) Let's spend our time babbling about fantasy market manipulators and never, ever actually touch the market ourselves...just try to predict what they will do next, instead of bettering our own position in life.
 
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