How To Use Bitcoin – The Most Important Creation In The History Of Man

[wrs]

Gold and silver movements were influenced by the birth and propagation of massive amounts of paper gold. Since this is not possible with bitcoin, there is no parallel possible.

What do you think futures and derivatives are? Futures already are traded and kevsta linked a ZH article about option spreads.

Regarding your typical wild assertion in bold above. I will introduce a direct comparable.

In 2002 Ebay bought Paypal for 1.5B. The prior year, Paypal had done 3.1B in payments, about 189,000 per day, and had a user base of 13 million in 39 countries.

The market 101 exercise is to answer the question

"What is the comparable market valuation of BItcoin today?"

I don't see any comparison between bitcoin and paypal. One is a payment service the other is a virtual commodity.

A lot of money was lost in bitcoin last week. I am guessing that those three days represent about $80m loss for the sellers.

 

[Belz...]

I already did. 500 to 150 by the end of the month. Can't do better than that.

That's a pretty mighty margin of error, right there.

 

[jhunter1163]

That's a pretty mighty margin of error, right there.

Given that it's around $850-900 now, it's a pretty doom-and-gloom prediction. Just a question of how doomy and gloomy it is going to get.

 

[jhunter1163]

You mean that if there are Bitwhales, who are ridiculously wealthy on paper by having invested in bitcoin early, they must have a full time job trying every couple of days to prop the market up?

(my bold above)

If they are to have any hope of realizing any of those paper gains, yes.

And this full time job costs them money, since they lose every time they act?

Not acting (i.e. allowing BTC to crash) would cost them much more.

So if you are extremely wealthy, you would work every day to lose money.

As I said before, not working as they are would lose them far more money.

 

[wrs]

That's a pretty mighty margin of error, right there.

That is 350 points, it moves that much back and forth in 24 hours now, what do you expect?

 

[kevsta]

You mean that if there are Bitwhales, who are ridiculously wealthy by having invested in bitcoin early <snip>

there cant be that many of them with a total market cap of 12 billion, er $6billion.. ..er $8 billion.. er..

they must have a full time job trying every couple of days to prop the market up?

ok, say you were the average geek who got into BTC early and accumulated a mere 2000 of them, at $1000 that's $2m you own. and it goes up or down $1m per day. where do you think your attention would be, on your geek job as before?

And this full time job costs them money, since they lose every time they act?

not nearly as much as just sitting there watching day by day.

So if you are extremely wealthy, you would work every day to lose money.

Got it! (not)....

ftfy.

who is talking about "propping up the market"? say I were not a geek with 2 million worth, but I was a whale who had accumulated 10% of the BTC supply, I would simply wait for parabolic spikes up, pick a number to just sell at until the market rolled and tumbled, then pick another number to buy the same BTC back at $400 below a day later. $400 per BTC profit on the downside, and now Im buying again and my new buys are once again rising $4-500 per BTC

losing money my a** in fact at a puny $12bn market capital if the US Treasury arent already meddling with their secret market manipulation dept (the ESF) I bet they soon will be.

Tell you what....(satirical, cynical) Let's spend our time babbling about fantasy market manipulators and never, ever actually touch the market ourselves...just try to predict what they will do next, instead of bettering our own position in life.

whatever turns you on dude.

 

[Belz...]

That is 350 points, it moves that much back and forth in 24 hours now, what do you expect?

Good point, but I'll just arbitrarily decide that your prediction is that it'll drop to 150 by that time.

 

[mhaze]

What do you think futures and derivatives are? Futures already are traded and kevsta linked a ZH article about option spreads..

Paper gold is not options. Paper gold is a pledge to pay gold, a warehouse receipt. Estimates are there is > 20x as much paper gold as real physical gold.

I don't see any comparison between bitcoin and paypal. One is a payment service the other is a virtual commodity.

A lot of money was lost in bitcoin last week. I am guessing that those three days represent about $80m loss for the sellers.

Doesn't matter if you see a relationship or not. You are not the market, and it is what the buyers and sellers think that matter.

As for your guess about loss for sellers, that's completely worthless because you have nothing but your rubbish conspiracy theory as guidance to what the purchase prices were.

 

[mhaze]

....
ok, say you were the average geek who got into BTC early and accumulated a mere 2000 of them, at $1000 that's $2m you own. and it goes up or down $1m per day. where do you think your attention would be, on your geek job as before? .....

Quite likely, yeah, on the job....I'd be waiting for the right moment to tell the ******* boss of though, but maybe I like that job...

The very idea of manipulating a market is called 'spending money'.

Not 'making money'.

 

[mhaze]

(my bold above)

If they are to have any hope of realizing any of those paper gains, yes.

Not acting (i.e. allowing BTC to crash) would cost them much more.

As I said before, not working as they are would lose them far more money.

Wow, so someone who'd watched btc gradually rise from $2 to $10 to $30 to $100 to $1264 to $800 would be scared into playing stupid little day trader games?

The ones I know would just laugh at your ideas. Because just by waiting they expect more orders of magnitude gain.

 

[kevsta]

Quite likely, yeah, on the job....I'd be waiting for the right moment to tell the ******* boss of though, but maybe I like that job...

The very idea of manipulating a market is called 'spending money'.

Not 'making money'.

not if or when you are the market, quite the opposite. but you are right, technically I would be making more and more bitcoins, so, not really money

 

[ideogram]

The very idea of manipulating a market is called 'spending money'.

People make a lot of money manipulating markets. This should not even be debatable.

 

[jhunter1163]

Wow, so someone who'd watched btc gradually rise from $2 to $10 to $30 to $100 to $1264 to $800 would be scared into playing stupid little day trader games?

How would they feel if they watched it go from $2 to $10 to $30 to $100 to $1264 to $800 to $100 to $30 to $10 to $2?

 

[wrs]

Paper gold is not options. Paper gold is a pledge to pay gold, a warehouse receipt. Estimates are there is > 20x as much paper gold as real physical gold.

Actually you are wrong. Paper gold is options and futures. A gold option is delivered as a gold futures contract if it expires in the money.

As for your guess about loss for sellers, that's completely worthless because you have nothing but your rubbish conspiracy theory as guidance to what the purchase prices were.

No, the chart gives a good estimate of what it might have been, it's probably worse but I was being kind in my estimate. The previous 6 days to the big collapse of the Dec 5,6,7 there were 240,000 BTC bought at a median of $1100. All that heavy selling on those three days took place well below $1000. In fact on Dec 7 there was 100,000 BTC dumped at an average price of $700. Based on a purchase price of over $1100, that is $40m minimum loss on that day alone. On the other two days it was $25m and $10m. That is of course assuming an $1100 price and we know there were plenty of chumps buying up there above that.

Anyway, the losses to the johnny come lately is staggering this time. Not like when it dumped from $250 to $90. Those were trivial by comparison here. This is the reason things collapse, the numbers just get too big and here they were too big too fast. It needs to come back down to a reasonable level much closer to where it started than where it ended.

 

[The Don]

People make a lot of money manipulating markets. This should not even be debatable.

Especially small illiquid markets like bitcoin.

 

[Belz...]

Bitcoin's all about speculation right now. Doesn't seem to have any substantial utility at this point.

 

[Doubt]

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-seizes-bitcoin-operator-accounts-183044356.html

Well, this might get a bit sticky.

 

[jhunter1163]

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-seizes-bitcoin-operator-accounts-183044356.html

Well, this might get a bit sticky.

That was from May, but it just goes to show you that BTC isn't as far beyond the long arm of the law as it's purported to be.

 

[Belz...]

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-seizes-bitcoin-operator-accounts-183044356.html

Well, this might get a bit sticky.

Bit old for news, don't you think ?

 

[mhaze]

Actually you are wrong. Paper gold is options and futures. A gold option is delivered as a gold futures contract if it expires in the money. .....

I'm not discussing options or futures. I'm talking about massive amounts of paper gold backing the claims of the likes of GLD.

https://www.igolder.com/glossary/paper-gold/
The term paper gold means you have a piece of paper acting as a substitute for the physical gold. With paper gold, you don't own the gold; you own a promise to receive physical gold. In plain English, it means you are a creditor of the corporation issuing the paper gold certificate, thus subject to counterparty risks. Owning the physical gold has no counterparty risk and is fully under your control.

No, the chart gives a good estimate of what it might have been, it's probably worse but I was being kind in my estimate. The previous 6 days to the big collapse of the Dec 5,6,7 there were 240,000 BTC bought at a median of $1100. All that heavy selling on those three days took place well below $1000. In fact on Dec 7 there was 100,000 BTC dumped at an average price of $700. Based on a purchase price of over $1100, that is $40m minimum loss on that day alone. On the other two days it was $25m and $10m. That is of course assuming an $1100 price and we know there were plenty of chumps buying up there above that.
.....

I've highlighted the ridiculous presumption with no factual basis on which you create a fantasy that, somehow, prices going up is "bad" and people "lose money".

I'd read it and surmise a cost basis for the sellers at the average price of the last three years. You pick a cost basis that supposes the prejudice you started with.