• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

How To Use Bitcoin – The Most Important Creation In The History Of Man

Status
Not open for further replies.
mhaze said:
In this respect we could certainly traceback and comment that long term bitcoin investers (say using cap gains terms, >1 year being 'long term') have UNIFORMLY made out pretty darn well.

Period.
Click to expand...
I would say that the best strategy is to buy your bitcoins and hold on to them until such time that you can really put them to good use. It might take several years but as long as bitcoin continues to gain prominence, you can't lose. (This seems to be the strategy that the majority of bitcoin holders use).

mhaze said:
As for weird day trading and mystical chart readers, I hope they lose every last dime.
Click to expand...
I don't wish them ill will even though they don't do the price stability any good. However, if they come up with smelly arguments about how good they are at doing this ......
 
psionl0 said:
I would say that the best strategy is to buy your bitcoins and hold on to them until such time that you can really put them to good use. It might take several years but as long as bitcoin continues to gain prominence, you can't lose. (This seems to be the strategy that the majority of bitcoin holders use).
Click to expand...


Yeah, I'd say that's some really good "strategy" right there. :rolleyes: Good luck with that.

Also, please define "prominence" in financial terms so we can all understand it.

Good luck to "the majority of Bitcoin holders" if this is your supposed "strategy"...

Looks like you really have no idea what you're talking about. All you're assuming, apparently without reason, is that Bitcoin is going to keep going up, simply based on earlier results.. You have no other fundamental reasons to think so.
 
Last edited:
psionl0 said:
It's been working for the last 5 years no matter when somebody bought in.
Click to expand...


So you're saying previous performance determines future performance?

Yeah, I guess Bitcoin is unlike any other investment opportunity in history, one that only goes up.

Let's wait and see. :)
 
Last edited:
AdMan said:
So you're saying previous performance determines future performance?
Click to expand...
Nothing is certain under the sun but 5 years worth of data is probably more reliable than 5 days worth.

Of course, you can forget about data altogether and just make knowledgeable pronouncements instead.
 
psionl0 said:
Nothing is certain under the sun but 5 years worth of data is probably more reliable than 5 days worth.

Of course, you can forget about data altogether and just make knowledgeable pronouncements instead.
Click to expand...

Except when the data disagrees with you, in which case you can dismiss it. Back down to the $720s now. I don't think it ever got low enough to trigger my phantom order; if I'd made the range $650 to $750 I'd have made $500.*

* - Assuming, that is, I could get it out of the exchanges.
 
jhunter1163 said:
Except when the data disagrees with you, in which case you can dismiss it.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: No doubt AdMan would go along with that. Of course, if a nooby in the CT or paranormal section said something like that I'm sure you know what the reaction would be.

jhunter1163 said:
Back down to the $720s now. I don't think it ever got low enough to trigger my phantom order; if I'd made the range $650 to $750 I'd have made $500.*
Click to expand...
Not so easy to game the system as you thought - eh?
 
psionl0 said:
It's been working for the last 5 years no matter when somebody bought in.
Click to expand...

Bitcoin was effectively worthless before Jan 2013, and utterly worthless before April 2011. There is barely a year of meaningful historical data to work with -- anyone can play with pennies, there's no risk so no inferences can be drawn.

"5 years" is a transparent attempt at spin.

psionl0 said:
I would say that the best strategy is to buy your bitcoins and hold on to them until such time that you can really put them to good use. It might take several years but as long as bitcoin continues to gain prominence, you can't lose
Click to expand...

Unless, of course, some government decides to co-opt the whole thing and creates its own digital currency (pegged to its own currency, of course) while simultaneously outlawing transfers to and from all Bitcoin exchanges as a form of "gambling".

Don't believe me? Look what happened to US users of InTrade... fortunately after the 2012 elections ;)
 
psionl0 said:
I would say that the best strategy is to buy your bitcoins and hold on to them until such time that you can really put them to good use. It might take several years but as long as bitcoin continues to gain prominence, you can't lose. (This seems to be the strategy that the majority of bitcoin holders use).
Click to expand...

And there is your prediction Belz. Let's see how well it holds.
 
Still in the decline channel

But the descending wedge has formed. Some decision will be made here in the next 12 hours. It could go either way at the end of the wedge or drop back down in the channel. The drop is most likely but it could regain it's bullish bent if someone can throw money at it. Like I said before, I don't see anyone foolish enough to do that unless the price is much lower. IN the 15 minute view it looks like the range is getting tighter and may lead to a decision sooner.
 

Attachments

  • btchan2.jpg
    btchan2.jpg
    17.1 KB · Views: 6
  • btc15mch.jpg
    btc15mch.jpg
    22.2 KB · Views: 7
Last edited:
AdMan said:
Interestingly, you could also say that about many Ponzi schemes. That is not a very strong argument for Bitcoin.
Click to expand...
There are billions of dollars of infrastructure behind bitcoin, and that is expanding over the years in question.

Tsukasa Buddha said:
As a side note, I have generally read that technical analysis fails empirical verification. Sometimes it looks like it is useful in inefficient and small markets, but I don't know if this market qualifies.
Click to expand...

Yes, a market consists of one or several elastic demand curves on which a random walk is superimposed. And those elastic demand curves can slide back and forth based on value perceptions - but nonetheless, there is a random walk superimposed. This means that your 'prediction' of the market going up or down in the next moment is worthless, equal likelihood both ways. Thus drawing linear projections into the future is worthless (mathematically, not an opinion, just fact). Such projections could be drawn with error bars, of course they'd be huge.

The lines drawn in #3153 are a joke.

Chart reading is woo.
 
Last edited:
AdMan said:
Yeah, I'd say that's some really good "strategy" right there. :rolleyes: Good luck with that...... All you're assuming, apparently without reason, is that Bitcoin is going to keep going up, simply based on earlier results.. You have no other fundamental reasons to think so.
Click to expand...

No, actually the longer range chart has different characteristics. It does not show the random walk behavior of daily charts. As I used the analogy of building a railroad, a several years chart shows the change in the value from initial speculative and promotion phase, to when the first tracks were built, to when a line was completed, to when utilization of the equipment started to occur.

That would should be obvious.

As for valuation, that can be calculated by looking at bitcoin taking a share of paypal transactions away from paypal. Then for those transactions, assume the value to consumers is the reduction of the paypal fees to zero.

Just one example.
 
Last edited:
mhaze said:
There are billions of dollars of infrastructure behind bitcoin, and that is expanding over the years in question.
Click to expand...

Yeah, lot's of pc's like in botnets. That is the joke.


mhaze said:
Yes, a market consists of one or several elastic demand curves on which a random walk is superimposed. And those elastic demand curves can slide back and forth based on value perceptions - but nonetheless, there is a random walk superimposed. This means that your 'prediction' of the market going up or down in the next moment is worthless, equal likelihood both ways. Thus drawing linear projections into the future is worthless (mathematically, not an opinion, just fact). Such projections could be drawn with error bars, of course they'd be huge.
Click to expand...

That is another model and of course it's subject to being extremely wrong in the short term and also in the long term. It's bad enough to make you broke if you follow it.

mhaze said:
The lines drawn in #3153 are a joke.

Chart reading is woo.
Click to expand...

Wow, it doesn't take much to set you off. I am simply drawing lines and you are falling apart. Here is an update, the ascending support has been broken, will it start back down again? There is a defense of 700, if it fails, that is where the bigger drop could materialize. This is actually how markets are traded, players have memory and the process has memory, it's not markov and no one has ever proven it is. The battle for 700 is on.
 

Attachments

  • tbtc15m1.jpg
    tbtc15m1.jpg
    22.3 KB · Views: 7
Last edited:
Bounced back up on the ascending line and out from under the short term decline line. It might try to break up at the end. The dip buyers might be in control here. Anyway, no decision yet. This happens a lot with these continuation patterns. The big drop has exhausted the market and it's still not sure about the future direction.
 

Attachments

  • tbtc15m1.jpg
    tbtc15m1.jpg
    22.4 KB · Views: 7
Belz... said:
A "prediction" that has no set time limit isn't much of a prediction: at no point can you say "here, you were wrong", because the person making the prediction can claim that it's not quite time yet.
Click to expand...

Well I would say that if Bitcoin is never "really put [them] to good use" then his prediction has failed.

Similarly he has said that within a maximum 2 year timeline Bitcoins will 1) Be able to put to good use, and 2) will have a price point higher than the $770 or so when he made the prediction.

So the only vague part is put to good use. Ironically it implies they can't be put to good use now, so it is nice to see Psion admitting it. But I think we can make that assertion more concrete, can we not - assuming psion doesn't go there first.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom