Question for Bitcoin skeptics: How high would the price of Bitcoin have to get before you admit that you are wrong and Bitcoin really is The Most Important Creation In The History Of Man?
The exact height of the price is largely irrelevant, since BTC is trying to become a currency and thus a reliable store of value -- should it become that, it will have an established exchange rate in USD/GBP/RMB.
For BTC to be anything other than a speculator's toy (which it currently is), the value would have to remain stable and nonzero for a good, long period of time. (The value was, of course, stable and effectively-zero for plenty of time at its inception, but that does nobody any good). Then, for it to actually gain widespread acceptance, real vendors will have to start accepting it in BTC form.
Right now almost no vendors accept BTC, and that is the second largest reason it's nothing more than a toy right now -- mhaze is spending a lot of effort and spin trying to pretend that you can buy things with BTC, but when you have to use an intermediary to convert it to USD first, that's nothing more than buying things with USD and paying an extra charge to the middleman.
When I can pay my utility bills or mortgage with BTC, _then_ i'll consider it to have arrived. I'll consider it to be on its way when I can do something as simple as order from a major online retailer and pay in BTC
to that retailer. That means "Amazon, Papa John's, etc. accepting BTC directly". Of course, no retailers worth their salt are doing this because the price spike over the last month would ruin them -- the minute one of those top 100 BTC holders decides to cash out any significant part of their holdings, all hell will break loose, and anyone who sold a good or service for .1 BTC (equivalent of what, $100 right now?) is going to be really pissed when those BTC are suddenly only worth, say, $25. $75 dollar loss soaked by the merchant? I don't think so -- and that's why you can't buy anything other than drugs or CP with Bitcoin.
Oh, and finally: Tippit posted an interesting article I alluded to, and I wanted to point out something above -- Not a single one of those top 100 BTC holders has made a transaction after May 7, 2013. Bitcoin prices around that time (between 5/1 and 5/14) ranged from between 80 to 140 USD. None of the Bitwhales are involved in this bubble, and that's not at all surprising in the least bit. But it does mean that everyone who's not a Bitwhale and is purchasing coins right now is at great risk from one of those same whales deciding to dectuple (it's a word now, dammit) his investment and cashing out while it's on the current ludicrous spike.
I don't buy into the $20/40 table with only $1000 for a reason -- a lot of amateur speculators are about to learn the same lesson.