[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Jabba said:
Zoo,
- Yeah, but my claim is that we are immortal already, and without any physical intervention.
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There's a flaw there. Have you never noticed graveyards? Are your great-great-great grandparents still alive? Troll on, it's amusing.
 
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godless dave said:
So where do you get those numbers? How did you calculate them?
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Dave,
- I'' start with the easy ones.
- P(SM|k) (the probability of the scientific model being true given existing evidence (before factoring in the implications of my own current existence).) I'm allowing for a 99% probability that the existing model is true -- given the existing considerations. Would you make the probability even larger?
- P(NSM|k) (the probability of the complement of the scientific model being true given existing evidence (before factoring in the implications of my own current existence).) Naturally, that would be 1.00 - 0.99, or 0.01.
- I'll have to get back to you re P(SM|me).
 
I'm allowing for a 99% probability that the existing model is true -- given the existing considerations.
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I have no idea how you would even calculate such a probability.

I'll have to get back to you re P(SM|me).
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Considering that is one of the most important parts of your hypothesis, and has been a key sticking point since you started this thread, I would have thought you would have worked this out already.
 
I have a theory that I am the reincarnation of Seti The First. The probability of my existing, given that I am the reincarnation of Seti The First, is 1 (because I've smuggled my existence into my hypothesis). Now all I have to do is use a bit of Bayes and plug in some *ballpark* numbers and I can prove the whole thing.
 
shuttlt said:
I have a theory that I am the reincarnation of Seti The First. The probability of my existing, given that I am the reincarnation of Seti The First, is 1 (because I've smuggled my existence into my hypothesis). Now all I have to do is use a bit of Bayes and plug in some *ballpark* numbers and I can prove the whole thing.
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Is reincarnation the same as immortality? I would say no. Of course there is no proof of either, but what the hell.
 
dafydd said:
Is reincarnation the same as immortality? I would say no. Of course there is no proof of either, but what the hell.
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It seemed to me, based on the posts I've read so far in the thread to be a similar argument to Jabba's. Maybe I'm wrong.

If we are talking about a hypothesis that is the complement of "we all just have one short life...", or some such, I don't see how one can say much about P(me|NSM) unless you smuggle "me" into your definition of NSM, in which case NSM isn't really the complement of SM.
 
Jabba said:
- P(NSM|k) (the probability of the complement of the scientific model being true given existing evidence (before factoring in the implications of my own current existence).)
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And what do you think this complement actually consists of?
 
abaddon said:
Some tests for you.

Go outside your front door right now and write down the registration of the first car you see. Calculate the odds of seeing that particular registrations possible, ever.

Go to your electricity meter right now and write down the number you see. Calculate the odds of you seeing that particular number at that instant in time.

Take out any random bill from your wallet and write down it's serial. Calculate the odds of you having a bill out of all the bills ever printed bearing that particular serial.

Go out to your yard and look at the stars. Calculate the odds that one of those stars has gone supernova and is no longer there at all.

Report back.
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Still not grasping that difference between the sum of all random events and one preselected random event, I see.

If the "unique brain" hypothesis is true, then your unique brain was the one and only way the light of day would ever appear. That's what I mean by "preselected". And it doesn't get any more preselected than that.

Try this. Start buying lottery tickets every time you have a few bucks to spare. Let us know when you win, go broke, or swear off, whichever comes first.

Oops. Those lottery tickets are preselected, aren't they.

Oh look, it's another lottery winner. Those lottery winners are a dime a dozen, aren't they.
 
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Toontown said:
Still not grasping that difference between the sum of all random events and one preselected event, I see.
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We grasp it, we just don't understand how it's relevant.

If a particular set of individually unlikely occurrences hadn't happened, I wouldn't be here.

But someone else would, thanks to a set of individually unlikely occurrences.
 
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godless dave said:
We grasp it, we just don't understand how it's relevant.

If a particular set of individually unlikely occurrences hadn't happened, I wouldn't be here.

But someone else would, thanks to a set of individually unlikely occurrences.
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But that particular ludicrously extensive set of ludicrously unlikely occurrences did happen, resulting in one unique brain. The only one, you apparently believe, that could have lit up the particular jungle you are currently experiencing.

And yet you still tell me you get it. I don't know what else to tell you except to start buying lots of lottery tickets. Hey, if you don't win someone else will, and the odds against you are way better than the ones you think you've beaten. And don't worry. If you live long enough to cash that magic ticket, it will more than cover your losses.
 
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Toontown said:
But that particular ludicrously extensive set of ludicrously unlikely occurrences did happen, resulting in one unique brain. The only one, you apparently believe, that could have lit up the particular jungle you are currently experiencing.
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So what? What is the significance of that?
 
godless dave said:
So what? What is the significance of that?
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To me, nothing.

To you, everything. Or so you think, which forces you to believe that you have beaten giganogargantuan odds. For the lack of a less ludicrously unlikely alternative.

None of which is my problem.
 
Toontown said:
To me, nothing.

To you, everything. Or so you think, which forces you to believe that you have beaten giganogargantuan odds.
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My existence is emotionally significant to me, but that's not what I was asking.

What is the significance to the discussion in this thread? My existence isn't pre-selected.
 
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