Merged New telepathy test: which number did I write ?

[Dan O.]

A hit is a hit. Get the right order of digits and you are a step closer to proving telepathy. You must make the test deliberately hard and random to eliminate guesses bases purely on chance. If he had a hundred test subjects and only four choices, when, by chance, the number he picks is guessed by the group 30 times, he can claim telepathy. If the number is much harder to guess, three correct hits out of 100 is significant.

The question is: "Is the order of the symbols preserved in the transmission?"

Since your position is that the mechanism for the transmission does not exist, you cannot jump in with assumptions about how it works. Take for example a hypothetical transmission that sends syllables in parallel without the timing information. When the selection of targets is limited, it is still easy to distinguish between them. But with multi-digit targets you get lots of collisions where multiple targets are indistinguishable. What you may think is an insignificant change to the task could be the equivalent of handing a telepathists a pair of dowsing rods and asking him to find water to prove his claim.

He has clearly stated that if they are wrong and they do not produce the number he "broadcast," they are lying. This presumes they have some sort of ability to hear his thoughts. I presume Michel has tested for this.

This is one of those things we refer to as Confirmation Bias. He said that there were multiple possibilities, they might not have heard him or they are lying. Because of your position, you only heard the bid about lying.

Fine, use ten subjects. Use more than six. Use a thousand if you can get them. My point was, set up the test beforehand with an agreed upon, willing, and cooperative group. Further, repeat the test, as many times as you can. This still hasn't been done.

A defined protocol is essential for good science. The highlighted part is a problem though. Have you ever heard the expression: "Let's make it 2 out of 3"?

When Michel provides the method he used to determine he is telepathic, I'll use that method to find someone who is not.

Isn't it Michel's position that everyone is telepathic, they just don't know it. Also, he ones that know it could be lying when they say they don't

You asked for people to try to help him create a hardened test, then you pounce on anyone who tries. Where's your ideas to improve the test?

I only pounce on the ones that are wrong. I've left several useful hints along the way. I don't know why I bother because nobody seems to be listening.

 

[ComfySlippers]

Troll. Alarm Bells

 

[kid meatball]

The question is: "Is the order of the symbols preserved in the transmission?"

Since your position is that the mechanism for the transmission does not exist, you cannot jump in with assumptions about how it works. Take for example a hypothetical transmission that sends syllables in parallel without the timing information. When the selection of targets is limited, it is still easy to distinguish between them. But with multi-digit targets you get lots of collisions where multiple targets are indistinguishable. What you may think is an insignificant change to the task could be the equivalent of handing a telepathists a pair of dowsing rods and asking him to find water to prove his claim.





This is one of those things we refer to as Confirmation Bias. He said that there were multiple possibilities, they might not have heard him or they are lying. Because of your position, you only heard the bid about lying.





A defined protocol is essential for good science. The highlighted part is a problem though. Have you ever heard the expression: "Let's make it 2 out of 3"?





Isn't it Michel's position that everyone is telepathic, they just don't know it. Also, he ones that know it could be lying when they say they don't





I only pounce on the ones that are wrong. I've left several useful hints along the way. I don't know why I bother because nobody seems to be listening.

You didn't pounce on Michel. Is he right?

 

[Dan O.]

You didn't pounce on Michel. Is he right?

My very first post in this thread was pouncing on an error he made in the improved protocol. I've pointed out several problems with his protocol, one that may be unredeemable. But I have specifically not pounced on his claim. The topic of this thread is the testing of that claim, not the claim itself. I shall in this thread remain neutral on that point.

 

[AdMan]

Just what is your position in apparently encouraging the delusions of someone who believes voices are telling him to kill himself and clearly needs medical attention?

Are you a medical doctor? Have you examined him? Are you even aware of his history which he has posted here and elsewhere?

I know what he's posted in this thread. Unless you have some information that he's not being honest when he talks about voices he's hearing that tell him to kill himself, I know enough about mental illness to tell him that he needs to seek medical attention.

Maybe you can direct us to where in his history he's said something that would indicate otherwise.

Dan O., this is an important question, and I'd appreciate an answer.

 

[Dan O.]

Dan O., this is an important question, and I'd appreciate an answer.

Here are some links for you to start your review:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=9643061#post9643061
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=9621838#post9621838
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=9632833#post9632833

There is more information in the yahoo thread that has been mentioned by other posters. I found it quite easily before but don't have time to search right now.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

If I began to suspect that everyone could hear my thoughts, well, that would be horribly embarrassing but putting that to one side for the moment, I'd want to test my suspicions.



I think I'd buy a cheap phone and think about the number, and invite everyone to ring me. When nobody did, I might raise the stakes and think about the £100 I would give to the first person to ring the number I'm thinking of and state the 4 digit PIN I'm thinking of. Still no takers? Shall we call it £1,000?

 

[dafydd]

Troll. Alarm Bells

I agree. Do not feed.

 

[Michel H]

... It was only yesterday, when the OP finally revealed that he had heard voices telling him to kill himself, that ...

It's related to the fact that he wants the voices he is apparently receiving himself to be from actual independent entities.

I understand that desire, but ...

The people who seem to speak in my head seem to be unhappy and concerned, because of some violent events, sometimes reported in the news, which seem to be related to my thoughts (or to myself), although I am not personally the author of these actions. One of these events may have affected a member of this forum very recently. I believe that such events really exist, and, in this sense, I partly understand the point of view of these voices (although I disagree with their conclusion, of course). They say: "You kill, so kill yourself!". That's their very simple logic (sometimes, they say more complicated things also). Also, these voices are not always hostile. Recently, I heard one of the voices saying (in French, as usual): "What do we get, if we help you being successful in your telepathy tests?". I think that I replied to them "perhaps, mitigating circumstances", or something like that. On another occasion, I was feeling somewhat depressed, because of some stuff I had read on the internet, and the most usual voice (which sounds like a middle-aged lady, resembling a little my own mother, although my mother is 80 years old now) told me "Sew!". I felt she was displaying some sympathy to me, and I didn't feel this was hostile. I try to talk to the voices politely, and with a minimum of respect. I think this is necessary for me, as I hear them so often.

I also have read some of you saying that I should see a doctor, about my voices. But I think that medical doctors and psychiatrists have not really been trained to deal with a case like mine, involving telepathy (?), so I suspect it really is a little embarrassing to them. In addition, standard medications used to treat (what psychiatrists call) "schizophrenia" may have some negative effects on patient health. In 1999, I consulted a psychiatrist in the emergency department of the large hospital near my home, who asked me to "show compassion" to him (!). I also, in that year, filed a complaint within the Belgian Justice system, following a suggestion by that psychiatrist who asked me to "show compassion" (another psychiatrist had made a similar suggestion), but, when I called them one or two months (?) later, a gentleman told me that my complaint was "premature". My GPs did not seem to be against my "research" in telepathy. One of them, Dr. H. D. once told me "As to telepathy, I let you take care of that". Another GP, that I saw more recently, asked me if I was "a telepathic genius" (note that this was a question asked). I don't see myself as a genius.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I think that medical doctors and psychiatrists have not really been trained to deal with a case like mine, involving telepathy (?), so I suspect it really is a little embarrassing to them. In addition, standard medications used to treat (what psychiatrists call) "schizophrenia" may have some negative effects on patient health.

I'm surprised to hear you say that about telepathy. I thought that the sensation that one is telepathic was very commonly associated with (what psychiatrists call) "schizophrenia".

 

[Michel H]

I'm surprised to hear you say that about telepathy. I thought that the sensation that one is telepathic was very commonly associated with (what psychiatrists call) "schizophrenia".

I think that, during their studies, (future) psychiatrists have not been taught to deal with genuine telepathy cases. The idea that the patient is a deluded, psychotic individual, probably seems more pleasant, more comfortable to many. Learning to accept reality may be hard, including for some on "skeptical forums". The Copernican idea that the Earth revolves around the sun also met strong resistance in the seventeenth century, and now it seems obvious.
I just read some old notes, from 1998, which remind me that Dr. M., a psychiatrist from the emergency department of the large hospital near my home, told me that (and I hope to quote him correctly):
There exists (with respect to telepathy) an attitude of refusal of the truth, of lying, and of concealment, on the part of the scientific community.

 

[Dan O.]

That's really what this is all about isn't it. You are hearing voices in your head and have rationalized that there are two possibilities: The voices are real and therefore telepathy is real. Or, the voices are just in your head and therefore you are a lunatic. Since you don't feel like a lunatic you choose to believe the former. But you still express that the second option is possible otherwise you wouldn't be seeking a test.

In seeking to test your own belief, you must be prepared for the consequence of what that test shows. Have you considered what it means if the test is positive? What if the test is negative? What if the test is inconclusive? At a minimum, you should at least have the names of a financial planner and a psychiatrist handy. If the test is positive you'll want someone you can trust to help you invest that $Million. If the test is negative you'll still have those voices to deal with though they will then be easier to ignore.


Apart form all that though, there is still the difficult problem of designing a valid test. In order for the test to be valid, it must be possible for the test to prove that the theory being tested is false (remember Albert). This is tricky because you cannot allow for the answer "the theory was false or the test was invalid".

We can start by examining the test in the OP. What is the theory being tested, what test result would support that theory and what test result would disprove that theory?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I think that, during their studies, (future) psychiatrists have not been taught to deal with genuine telepathy cases.

I'm sure you are correct. That situation might change if there is ever shown to be such a thing as genuine telepathy.

 

[Tomtomkent]

Would it not be wise to seek medical help to discount mental health issues as a cause? Every other possibility eliminated would strengthen your claim. See a doctor.

 

[dafydd]

We can start by examining the test in the OP. What is the theory being tested, what test result would support that theory and what test result would disprove that theory?

You really didn't understand it?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Would it not be wise to seek medical help to discount mental health issues as a cause?

Yes, it would.

But there again, Michel is fully convinced that he is psychic and I imagine he would have great difficulty in finding a doctor sufficiently sympathetic to that idea that they would not immediately assume that he was not really psychic and that his belief that he was is probably a symptom of an illness.

I suppose what Michel would like is either to prove he is psychic or, failing that, to find a doctor who does not take his belief in his psychic ability as prima facie evidence of illness.

Candidly, my own view is that there is no such thing as psychic abilities and the best purpose this thread can serve is if it can demonstate to Michel his abilities don't work and so convince him to go to a doctor anyway.

 

[dafydd]

Yes, it would.

But there again, Michel is fully convinced that he is psychic and I imagine he would have great difficulty in finding a doctor sufficiently sympathetic to that idea that they would not immediately assume that he was not really psychic and that his belief that he was is probably a symptom of an illness.

I suppose what Michel would like is either to prove he is psychic or, failing that, to find a doctor who does not take his belief in his psychic ability as prima facie evidence of illness.

Candidly, my own view is that there is no such thing as psychic abilities and the best purpose this thread can serve is if it can demonstate to Michel his abilities don't work and so convince him to go to a doctor anyway.

He failed.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

He failed.

Unfortunately, though perhaps inevitably, he doesn't accept that he failed.

 

[Michel H]

Would it not be wise to seek medical help to discount mental health issues as a cause? Every other possibility eliminated would strengthen your claim. See a doctor.

You only go consult a doctor when you think they will provide you with reliable information, and not try to impose a "society view" on some phenomena. You don't consult a person when you suspect this person might lie to you, deceive you, or criminally "prescribe" to you dangerous and inappropriate medication.

 

[dafydd]

You only go consult a doctor when you think they will provide you with reliable information, and not try to impose a "society view" on some phenomena. You don't consult a person when you suspect this person might lie to you, deceive you, or criminally "prescribe" to you dangerous and inappropriate medication.

You would be misleading the doctor when you tell him that you are telepathic.