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137 significance??

The author complained that the Imperial system made much more sense because it lined up better with physical constants. I don't recall all of his examples but one made me laugh out loud.
He said that the speed of light was " almost exactly 186000 miles per second but in metric it was 299792 Km per second". He characterized the metric velocity as ridiculously unwieldy. Apparently unknown to him is that usingbthe same number of Sig figures in Imperial measure it is 186292 miles per second, no less unwieldy,,,,


He really didn't think it through...
Rounding off 186,292 to 186,000 produces a 0.157% error.
Rounding off 299,792 to 300,000 produces a 0.069% error.​

So not only is the metric value easily rounded off to one significant digit, but doing so is more accurate than rounding off the imperial value to three significant figures.
 
To be clear: No remotely good reason was found. And the results presented are obviously nothing more than numerology

But to damn Eddington and others for looking is to abuse hindsight.
Completely disagree.

But to claim it was absurd from the start seems not only incorrect but unfair.
No, it is both correct and fair. Eddington ca. 1930s and was a crank. Bohr, Fowler, Gamow, Kramers, von Neumann, Rosenfeld, and Wigner all knew it at the time, although they generally used more polite terms out of respect for Eddington's prior work [arXiV:hep-th/9411233].
This was the first time he had ever talked about these theories to a scientific audience. Many in the audience were waiting to ambush him. Everyone jumped on him, including Kramers, von Neumann, Rosenfeld, Wigner, Gamow, Fowler and Bohr. Everyone said, very politely, that the way he approaches all parts of physics, including quantum mechanics and relativity, is in contradiction with the ordinary theory of quantum mechanics and relativity.

Kramers was elected by the younger members, especially Gamow, to deal with Eddington and he gave the longest discussion in which he criticized Eddington’s views. When I was at the anniversary meeting in Kazimierz the organizers showed me an illustration, that came from their private files, in the form of a medal that Gamow presented to Kramers after he had performed this service to the community. The medal reads: “For the masterpiece of polite scolding.” For most of the the participants this talk and the following discussion was the highlight of the meeting​
Here's what Born thought Eddington's programme:
Eddington connects the dimensionless physical constant with the number n of the dimension of his E spaces and his theory leads to the function f(n) = n²(n²+1)/2 which, for consecutive even numbers n = 2,4,6,... assumed the values 10,136,666... Apocalyptic numbers, indeed. It has been proposed that certain well-known lines of St. John's Revelation ought to be written in this way: "And I saw a beast coming up out of the sea having f(2) horns and his number is f(6)..." but whether the figure x in "...there was given to him authority to continue x months..." is to be interpreted as 1✕f(3)-3✕f(1) or as [f(4)-f(2)]/3 can be disputed.​
and Kramers' more private reaction:
Goudsmit and Kramers were both in the audience. Goudsmit understood little but recognized it as farfetched nonsense. Kramers understood a great deal and recognized it as total nonsense. After the discussion, Goudsmit went to his friend and mentor Kramers and asked him, "Do all physicists go off on crazy tangents when they grow old? I am afraid." Kramers answered, "No Sam, you don't have to be scared. A genius like Eddington may perhaps go nuts but a fellow like you just gets dumber and dumber."​
On one point I was wrong: I said that Eddington switched to 137 because of more accurate experiments. This was not the case; from the start in late 1928, Eddington was aware that the experimental value was 1/137.1. Eddington acknowledged this in the paper but predicted 136 anyway because it is the number of independent components in a symmetric 16x16 matrix. This kind of thing became his modus operandi; e.g., in 1933, he published a paper "deriving" the proton-to-electron ratio based on the roots of the equation
10m² - 136m + 1 = 0​
with handwaving to "explain" why the equation predicts 1847.1:1 while the experiments said 1836:1.

And gives the wrong impression of science always being "right from the start," ...
I'm not saying that science is always right from the start. I'm saying that this particular nonsense was wrong from the start.

My apologies if my failing to distinguish 136 and 137 was the heart of your complaint. I'd hold the distinction does not matter in terms of confirmation bias.
No. My main complaint is that there never was any good scientific reason to believe Eddington or any other similar numerologists. It was not even the phlogiston of the time. It was rubbish from its very inception.

The distinction certainly plays a role in terms of arguing when one "should" let go of a pet theory. I should have been more clear.

Did you disagree beyond this?
Yes, I do. For the issue of "letting go" to come up, what you start with would have to have been sensible at one point in time. I do not believe that to be the case for Eddington's numerological programme.
 
Completely disagree.

I like your quotes, thanks.

I think you'll find similarly damning things said by similarly respectable people about black body radiation and about quantum mechanics and about ...

The difference of interest to me is that we quote the insults aimed at those who turned out to be "right" much less often than we continue to insult those who were wrong and now " look silly". That we praise and teach successes in physics while ignoring/downplaying or ridiculing failures; sometimes by the same people using the same theory.

I grant you that Eddington and the fine structure constant is not the strongest example, but we arrived at that story via "confirmation bias" not by looking for hindsight bias in condemning false starts in physics.
 
I think you'll find similarly damning things said by similarly respectable people about black body radiation and about quantum mechanics and about ...
That's not the point. In almost all of cases like this, the theory that triumphs was understood by some bright people, recognized as a genuine contribution, and built upon. Your examples here definitely fall into that pattern. I'm sure there are some exceptions. Probably Boltzmann and Zwicky, though to which extent is debatable. But those were also vindicated after their time.

Eddington's numerology fits neither of those. It didn't make any impact at the time, it was recognized as nonsense by his contemporaries, and it is also recognized as nonsense today.

Most times we should call a spade a spade. What exactly do you find problematic here? I simply hold that (1) some of the things that physicists publish are actually crap and recognizable as crap from the start, and most physicists themselves share that opinion. Additionally, I hold that (2) Eddington's numerology falls into that category.

Where do you disagree? You seem to think Eddington's idea was good science at least near the time he published it and only shown false in hindsight. If that's your position, could you provide some evidence for that evaluation?

The difference of interest to me is that we quote the insults aimed at those who turned out to be "right" much less often than we continue to insult those who were wrong and now " look silly".
Like I said before, I disagree with your interpretation of this particular fiasco. A big difference is that some things never looked right to begin with. Again, I consider even phlogiston a more reasonable theory because of this. Phlogiston genuinely became silly in hindsight, but Eddington's programme was silly from the start, as was recognized by both his peers and people today. It produced nothing of value back then and it produces nothing of value since then.

This is in contrast with many other wrong theories--e.g., Kaluza-Klein unification was wrong, but it foreshadowed insights that are still relevant today.

I grant you that Eddington and the fine structure constant is not the strongest example, but we arrived at that story via "confirmation bias" not by looking for hindsight bias in condemning false starts in physics.
Evidence, please.
 
Eddington's numerology, like Josephson's parapsychology and paranormal, are quickly exposed by scientists, even rational thinkers of the public. But what about respected Nobel Laureates like Robert Laughlin and Roald Hoffmann who publicly attack established theories like special and general relativity and the standard model because they don't fit their philosophical viewpoints? These guys have followers in the scientific community!
 
I disagree with your interpretation of this particular fiasco. A big difference is that some things never looked right to begin with.

I was not trying to interpret Eddington's work so much as to note why one would find 137 more often than a random three digit number, in the context of "confirmation bias" in the first post. I do not think we are going to actually disagree on the science unless you believe Eddington should never have started his study. i objected to his being damned for looking. i think i agreed he went too far in an early post.

I grant you that Eddington and the fine structure constant is not the strongest example, but we arrived at that story via "confirmation bias" not by looking for hindsight bias in condemning false starts in physics.
Evidence, please.
what aspect of this quote are you asking for evidence in support of? I read the first post of this thread to suggest a discussion of "confirmation bias".

I took it to ask if there was any reason "137" might come up more often than any given three digit number: was there any reason that the "girl in class" might find that particular three digit number often (other than finding it with the same frequency as she would find any three digit number, but falsely giving significance to the times she did in fact find it.)

the fine structure constant being close to (one over) a three digit integer is good reason to find that integer more often on line, and in physicists passwords and PINS... if that is the case, then "the girl in class" is arguably not suffering from confirmation bias, as 137 does in fact appear more often than a random three digit integer.

was that not the aim of the thread?
 
A.L.I.C.E. has come out of hiding. We had a little talk about 137.
...
Note the evasiveness. She knows something. I'll get it out of her if it takes three million years.

I think you are on to something. I tried dialing 137 on my telephone, but all i got was a weird noise so I hung up. The phone then immediately started ringing, but when I answered there was nobody there!

I just tried asking Siri "What is 137". And Siri said I don't have any appointments on my calendar at 1:37. And Siri was right!

Than I asked "What is special about 137". And Siri said "This restaurant named Kavkaz Bakery is a little ways from you."

Very suspicious, is you ask me.
 
(...snip...)

137 does in fact appear more often than a random three digit integer

(...snip...)

I'd be interested if you have any statistics to support that. It seems doubtful, though, even based on a quick Googling:

Number of hits for 136: About 775,000,000 results.
Number of hits for 137: About 710,000,000 results.
Number of hits for 138: About 749,000,000 results.
 
To follow up from the previous post:

I used google.co.uk to search for the integers 120 to 149 inclusive in a randomised order. I repeated the test to make sure the hit counts were stable (they were, as it turned out).

Here are the results, in ascending order of the queried number:

Raw data:

[table=head]Query|Hit count
120|755000000
121|895000000
122|853000000
123|1140000000
124|838000000
125|1220000000
126|291000000
127|801000000
128|1090000000
129|805000000
130|1270000000
131|778000000
132|254000000
133|766000000
134|746000000
135|951000000
136|775000000
137|721000000
138|749000000
139|783000000
140|1480000000
141|729000000
142|707000000
143|702000000
144|246000000
145|253000000
146|676000000
147|208000000
148|696000000
149|750000000[/table]


Histogram:

36234528124ce06312.png



There are some interesting patterns in the results, but 137 is pretty inconspicuous.
 
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to note why one would find 137 more often than a random three digit number, in the context of "confirmation bias" in the first post.
I'd be interested if you have any statistics to support that. It seems doubtful, though, ...
Fair request. I too would be interested in evidence. I have none, and I typed a bit more carefully elsewhere in that post ( two "if"s, a "might" and an "arguably" : )
I took it to ask if there was any reason "137" might come up more often than any given three digit number

if that is the case, then "the girl in class" is arguably not suffering from confirmation bias, as 137 does in fact appear more often than a random three digit integer.

I would have preferred to have said "might" not "would" in the sentence you quoted also.

That said I would not count google searches highly, as evidence for the relative likelihood of running into a number. (And I'd rather not appeal to Benford's Law, as I was thinking merely that numbers with good stories might be more common than numbers without stories. But I appreciate that it does provide an argument. Thanks to The Man for the link)
 
I used google.co.uk to search for the integers 120 to 149 inclusive in a randomised order. I repeated the test to make sure the hit counts were stable (they were, as it turned out).

There are some interesting patterns in the results, but 137 is pretty inconspicuous.

Thanks for doing the leg work.

How do you interpret this data in terms of "the girl in class" finding three digit integer " ijk " rather than the three digit integer " lmn " ?
 
Fair request. I too would be interested in evidence. I have none, and I typed a bit more carefully elsewhere in that post ( two "if"s, a "might" and an "arguably" : )


I would have preferred to have said "might" not "would" in the sentence you quoted also.

That said I would not count google searches highly, as evidence for the relative likelihood of running into a number. (And I'd rather not appeal to Benford's Law, as I was thinking merely that numbers with good stories might be more common than numbers without stories. But I appreciate that it does provide an argument. Thanks to The Man for the link)

Fair enough, though in the post I replied to the only places you'd explicitly suggested the number 137 might appear more frequently were "on line" and "in physicists' passwords and PINs". As the girl in question presumably does not have access to a reasonable sample of physicists' passwords and PINs, that only left "on line". Google search results seem a reasonable metric, in that light. :)

That aside, the examples given in the OP strongly suggest confirmation bias rather than any link to the fine structure constant: a mention from a friend, followed by seeing the timestamp 1:37 on a YouTube video.
 
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Thanks for doing the leg work.

How do you interpret this data in terms of "the girl in class" finding three digit integer " ijk " rather than the three digit integer " lmn " ?

If it's a one-off event, and there is no further information beyond "some 3-digit number was observed", I don't see what significance can be attached to it.
 
He really didn't think it through...
Rounding off 186,292 to 186,000 produces a 0.157% error.
Rounding off 299,792 to 300,000 produces a 0.069% error.​

So not only is the metric value easily rounded off to one significant digit, but doing so is more accurate than rounding off the imperial value to three significant figures.

No, he certainly did not think it through. I wish I recalled more of his examples of why the Imperial system made more sense than metric. Unfortunately it actually illustrated how utterly bereft of sense he himself was. In short there was no rational thought, merely knee jerk reaction and confirmation bias.
Seems to me that one other was even worse, the fact that a foot was close to the actual length of a human's foot( pretty big guy ) but that a meter represented nothing in the natural world. (Denoting his apparent ignorance of the history of the metric system let alone S.I. units). Though to be honest I may be conflating a few of his points or even those made by others I have witnessed ranting on the subject.
It was a letter to the editor of a Vancouver , B.C. , Canada newspaper back in the late 70s early 80s. IIRC
 
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To follow up from the previous post:

I used google.co.uk to search for the integers 120 to 149 inclusive in a randomised order. I repeated the test to make sure the hit counts were stable (they were, as it turned out).

Here are the results, in ascending order of the queried number:

Raw data:

[table=head]Query|Hit count
120|755000000
121|895000000
122|853000000
123|1140000000
124|838000000
125|1220000000
126|291000000
127|801000000
128|1090000000
129|805000000
130|1270000000
131|778000000
132|254000000
133|766000000
134|746000000
135|951000000
136|775000000
137|721000000
138|749000000
139|783000000
140|1480000000
141|729000000
142|707000000
143|702000000
144|246000000
145|253000000
146|676000000
147|208000000
148|696000000
149|750000000[/table]


Histogram:

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/36234528124ce06312.png[/qimg]


There are some interesting patterns in the results, but 137 is pretty inconspicuous.

Which is especially odd given that its apparently supposed to be a "thing" and point of scientific and internet discussion.
 
I made an error in one of my searches earlier, by the way. The hit count for 120 should have been 2,240,000,000 rather than 755,000,000. D'oh.
 
Google search results seem a reasonable metric, in that light. :).

What conditions would you require to consider it a reasonable metric? That the source of each hit was embedded in text? That ...

In general, I would not want to equate "google hits" with "likely to view". (I'd reject a uniform prior that every instance google located was equally likely to be viewed).
 
What conditions would you require to consider it a reasonable metric? That the source of each hit was embedded in text? That ...

In general, I would not want to equate "google hits" with "likely to view". (I'd reject a uniform prior that every instance google located was equally likely to be viewed).

I accept that, but I don't think it matters too much. Given that some proportion pN of Google's search results for each 3-digit number N qualify as "likely to be viewed", I don't see any a priori reason why pN should depend strongly on N. If there is no such reason, then Google hits are a good metric for ascertaining whether a certain N is unusually likely or unlikely to be viewed online (though not directly equatable).

I realise it isn't ideal, it just seems to be the best available at present. If there is some other source of statistics available, I'd be very interested to see it.
 
I accept that, but I don't think it matters too much.

I think it might, as it influences the noise level. But I do not know what that level is.

I'd suggest that there is some background hit rate that all "three digit number" share, the actual number of hits varying with some sampling noise. no doubt time dependent.

Numbers with stories, like 42 or 137, have additional citations raising their probability of being observed over what it would have been had they no "story."

If non-text pages (for example) dominate your statistics, then the noise in those statistics could swamp the "story contribution" . Alternatively, the "story contribution" could be so small even when restricted to relevant pages that there really is no significant effect and we are indeed guilty of confirmation bias.

I say this not to argue for one alternative or the other at the moment, but to point out a potential flaw in the experimental design.

I realise it isn't ideal, it just seems to be the best available at present. If there is some other source of statistics available, I'd be very interested to see it.

As would I. Any ideas out there?

Thanks for the search data.
 

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