Ed Madeleine McCann Mystery

[Tomtomkent]

Me too. Particularly interested in my own apparent lack of critical thinking skills - I'm afraid I find it all too easy to be convinced that an appallingly badly argued proposition is wrong, when of course someone else arguing it incredibly well could still convince me.

I really must work on this.

Yes. It is a shame that the chap seemed to be taking things so personally, as the questions raised about his argument were done so from genuine interest, not as an attack. That the argument was flawed is not to say the theory itself was not worth discussing. Had the questions been answered, and issues with the evidence considered, the theory may have been restated more convincingly.

 

[malicus]

Yes. It is a shame that the chap seemed to be taking things so personally, as the questions raised about his argument were done so from genuine interest, not as an attack. That the argument was flawed is not to say the theory itself was not worth discussing. Had the questions been answered, and issues with the evidence considered, the theory may have been restated more convincingly.

It was Mushy. There was no discussion to be had there.

 

[Rolfe]

Malicius, I don't know what your information is on this one, but as I understand it these dogs aren't nearly as good as they're cracked up to be. Drug-search dogs have been shown to be pretty damn good at the Clever Hans trick more than actually smelling drugs. And I understand this "cadaver" thing is even more hit and miss. The dogs could have been reacting to the suspicions of their handlers.

It seems to have been the alleged reactions of the dogs that started or reinforced the idea that the McCanns had sedated Madeleine (by the way, she was never called Maddie or Maddy - it seems very disrespectful to shorten her name when she may be dead, to something she was never called in life). But I don't believe there was ever any evidence they did that.

I'm with the posters who give credence to the idea that medical professionals might do this. I don't know what Benadryl is, but I'd put money on temazepam being the drug of choice. I did meet a Dutch doctor once who told me he sometimes gave his year-old baby a bit of a nitrazepam tablet to make him sleep, and temazepam is the current version of that. It's effective, and it's very difficult to overdose with it.

However, there's no evidence at all the McCanns actually did this. And the idea they came home and found her dead, then decided to dispose of the body in case traces of benzodiazepine were found at post mortem - well, I'd need some actual evidence before I started thinking that, and as far as I can see there isn't any.

Rolfe.

 

[catsmate]

Actually in cases of missing children in these circumstances, its more likely the parents are involved.

Untrue.

In your opinion.

An opinion based on good process, reason and logic.

Show me how its a misinterpretation to say the dogs found a cadaver odor in the apartment and stop assuming its my wishful thinking, address the argument not me or i will report you.

A dog reacted to a potential odour, that's not evidence, that'd barely justify issuing a warrant to search.

The PJ.

So a well respected sniffer dog, which has helped in over 200 cases, finding evidence of a cadaver odor is not evidence? Got any proof of this, or is it your opinion

As has been pointed out it's not evidence.

The dog is trained to react to a cadaver smell.

Untrue.

Its got a well established history of being right.

Citation for this claim?

Are you aware that the chemicals (cadaverine and putrescine) which these dogs are trained to detect are also produced by living beings and, in the case of putrescine, on an industrial scale by biotechnological methods?

Yep. In fact cadaver dogs aren't usually trained using actual putrefying human tissue but synthetic mixes intended to mimic the odours or human tissue fragments in mixed state of decomposition. Hence the problem with false positives from decaying blood spills, sperm, et cetera along with bacterial breakdown within the body (bad breath and bacterial vaginosis).
[Thanks to some dog people¹ in the US who helped me with info on scent dogs]

Damn and blast. I wanted answers to my questions!

I wonder if we'll see another newbie with a McCann obsession soon.
However I don't think you'll be getting your answers.



OT but while we're on malodourous chemicals has anyone read A Novel and Efficient Synthesis of Cadaverine? A good mystery with chemical synthesis, academic infighting, an assassination, nasty goings-on in the basement.


¹ No, not furries.

 

[pakeha]

Whatever else this thread may have accomplished, I've learned about cadaver sniffer dogs and their training, thanks to all who've posted up on the subject.

 

[Nessie]

Me too. Particularly interested in my own apparent lack of critical thinking skills - I'm afraid I find it all too easy to be convinced that an appallingly badly argued proposition is wrong, when of course someone else arguing it incredibly well could still convince me.

I really must work on this.

This could help you to understand why that happens

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

An unskilled person with lots of confidence can be persuasive when they really should not be.

 

[Information Analyst]

The Ben Needham disappearence recently attracted publicity when a collapsed wall was excavated as it was pointed out he could have been there when it collapsed. There was no trace which further suggests he was taken.

Reporter who actually visited the scene disagrees. (2007 article - interesting in retrospect).

 

[pakeha]

^
An excellent article, thanks for posting it.
"As I say, accident is an unpopular conclusion, so much so that no infrared body-tracking device was flown over Ben's bleak hillside and nor was it in Portugal."

 

[Information Analyst]

It's actually been quite disturbing that the find of "Maria" with Greek Roma has been directly held up by Nedham's family as "proving" that he could still be alive, even more than the McCanns saying the same of Madeleine.

 

[gtm]

It's actually been quite disturbing that the find of "Maria" with Greek Roma has been directly held up by Nedham's family as "proving" that he could still be alive, even more than the McCanns saying the same of Madeleine.

Why is it disturbing?

For want of a better term 'child theft' is one possible scenario for what happened to both of these children.

 

[Information Analyst]

Why is it disturbing?

For want of a better term 'child theft' is one possible scenario for what happened to both of these children.

On the contrary, as noted in the article I linked to, there is literally no evidence that Ben Needham was abducted in the first place. I can sort of undertsnad why the family might want to "read" the finding of "Maria" the way they have, but it's desperate straw-clutching of the most self-delusional type.

 

[gtm]

On the contrary, as noted in the article I linked to, there is literally no evidence that Ben Needham was abducted in the first place. I can sort of undertsnad why the family might want to "read" the finding of "Maria" the way they have, but it's desperate straw-clutching of the most self-delusional type.

What would you consider to be evidence of an abduction? To my mind a child that to all intents & purposes seems to vanished into thin air is a pretty good start.

 

[Information Analyst]

What would you consider to be evidence of an abduction? To my mind a child that to all intents & purposes seems to vanished into thin air is a pretty good start.

If you think that, you obviously haven't read the article.

Meanwhile, desperation gets more desperate:

Mirror: Is 'Maria' related to Ben Needham? Sister wants DNA tested against girl found in gypsy camp

"Ben's sister Leighanna Needham wants the test on the off-chance that the little blonde girl found in Greece is relating to her missing brother"

I mean... seriously?!?!

 

[Nessie]

Reporter who actually visited the scene disagrees. (2007 article - interesting in retrospect).

Could you show me which part of that report disagrees with what I said.

 

[Information Analyst]

Could you show me which part of that report disagrees with what I said.

The entire article is contrary to your claim that:

There was no trace which further suggests he was taken.

There is no evidence that he was "taken" in the first place, unless you always and only assume that a disappearance is an abduction.

 

[Skepticemea]

There is no evidence that he was "taken" in the first place, unless you always and only assume that a disappearance is an abduction.

Why do you think they aren't they calling it a murder?

 

[Nessie]

The entire article is contrary to your claim that:

There is no evidence that he was "taken" in the first place, unless you always and only assume that a disappearance is an abduction.

I said that not finding Ben Needham's remains further SUGGESTS he was taken. By process of elimination if abduction becomes the most likely scenario, it would be odd not to proceed with abduction in mind for any investigation into a missing person. So I was clearly not assuming a missing person has been abducted.

 

[Information Analyst]

Why do you think they aren't they calling it a murder?

Because the family are desperately clinging to the idea that he's still alive?

 

[Skepticemea]

Because the family are desperately clinging to the idea that he's still alive?

What evidence is there that he was murdered?

 

[Information Analyst]

I said that not finding Ben Needham's remains further SUGGESTS he was taken. By process of elimination if abduction becomes the most likely scenario, it would be odd not to proceed with abduction in mind for any investigation into a missing person. So I was clearly not assuming a missing person has been abducted.

Searching in one particular place and finding nothing in an area that was hardly searched at all in the first place? The whole point is that abduction is highly unlikely due to the location. A car approaching the farmhouse would have been a) heard, and/or b) seen by the departing brother/uncle, and the latter would also apply to anyone approaching on foot. This is even apart from the unliklihood of any supposed abductor speculatively targetting a relatively isolated farmhouse with such intent.

When it was realised Ben was missing, the family only searched in a specific direction, and the police did not search the area that was not covered (i.e. most of it) retrospectively. The next ferry was not due to leave until five hours are Ben disappeared, so any supposed abductor would not have attempted to leave by it, as they would have assumed the alarm would have been raised by then.