Continuation Part Six: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[RoseMontague]

That paragraph isn't a description of the film, it's from the blurb for Nadeau's book. I doubt the film will be like that since Winterbottom's already said he's not exploring the question of guilt/innocence.

I'm a fan of Winterbottom's previous work - he's normally quite a thoughtful director - so I'm going to withhold judgment on the film until I actually see it. What I can't work out is why he needed to buy the rights to Nadeau's book. There's nothing in there which he couldn't have easily found from the mass of information already in the public domain. Unless he just wanted the title, I suppose...

Barbie is the main focus of the movie, Kate playing Barbie Nadeau, not Amanda Knox. Barbie is the hero reporter digging up the truth.

 

[RoseMontague]

Kate Beckinsale won't be playing Amanda Knox. That part has been given to Cara Delevingne, according to Deadline. Instead the "Underworld" star will portray a journalist hunting for the truth about the murder of a college student in Italy

.

http://www.csmonitor.com/The-Cultur...te-Beckinsale-joins-cast-of-Amanda-Knox-movie

 

[Chris_Halkides]

alcohol oxidation

The change from zero-order (constant rate) to first-order (rate that depends on the concentration of remaining alcohol) is gradual and it depends on the Michaelis constant K_m. It is possible to calculate a quantity called the elasticity of the velocity with respect to substrate concentration, and it is the apparent order of the reaction. 10-fold above the K_m, one approaches zero-order kinetics, and 10-fold below, one approaches first-order kinetics. The elasticity is the partial derivative of the natural log of velocity of an enzyme over the partial derivative of the log of substrate concentration. Someone whose math skills are less rusty than mine can have some fun with this definition applied to the Michaelis-Menten equation. The enzyme in this case is alcohol dehydrogenase, and the substrate is ethanol.

My source for the following information is the "Drug Abuse Handbook," 2nd edition, Steven B. Karch, editor-in-chief (2007). The rate during the constant phase is between 10-20 mg/dL per hour with a mean of 15. Class 1 alcohol dehydrogenase enzymes have K_m values of about 2-5 mg/dL; therefore, "they become saturated with substrate after one or two drinks." The phase in which the rate is almost constant as shown in Figure 5.2.13 is long, but the rate does indeed slow down after that. Because of various uncertainties, some workers question whether the additional complexity of the Michaelis-Menten model is really a net advantage.

Does this model explain Meredith's measured alcohol levels? Possibly, but I lean slightly against this explanation. The time between when Meredith drank and when she was killed seems a little bit long, unless Meredith were slow to oxidize alcohol.

 

[MDDVS]

You sound more like Dan Quayle.

The point was that Lalli said there was no signs of forced sex. That took rape out of the picture, but they suspected correctly that there had been sexual activity. This may have led to them to some sort of "sex game gone bad."

If she was dying when the sexual assault took place would there be any sign of forced sex?

 

[katy_did]

Barbie is the main focus of the movie, Kate playing Barbie Nadeau, not Amanda Knox. Barbie is the hero reporter digging up the truth.

Still doesn't really explain why he needed to buy the rights to Barbie's book. I think the actual main main character is a film-maker, according to the Telegraph:

The fictional journalist, Simone Ford, is approached by a once-successful but now struggling British film-maker who wants to make a film about the case.

The film-maker has recently separated from his wife in a bitter divorce and left his nine-year-old daughter in Los Angeles.

He will be played by Daniel Bruhl, the German actor, who portrayed the Formula One driver Niki Lauda in the recent film Rush.

The unravelling of the director's personal life, and his involvement in the murder, "drag him down into his own personal hell ... like Dante journeying through the Inferno in the Divine Comedy," according to the official synopsis of the film.

He begins a relationship with a student, played by the British model and actress Cara Delevingne, 21.

As he tries to uncover the truth behind the murder, he becomes "swept up in the media feeding frenzy around the enigmatic lead suspect.

"He sees that the victim has been forgotten, and realises that his own salvation lies in returning to the daughter he has left behind," according to the synopsis.

 

[Grinder]

The luminol was applied to the point of creating puddles, if my interpretation is correct. Colonel Garofano also mentioned this problem. One thing that should be studied experimentally is whether or not overapplication of luminol increases the chances of a false positive. Another thing that should be studied is whether the overapplication of luminol would increase the odds of a TMB test's failing because something in the luminol is incompatible. A correctly applied luminol test should not interfere with a TMB test, however.

I have read that luminol can impact other tests. The luminol was glowing on the booties of the CSI guys which adds to the spreading of blood residue theory or that the cops couldn't have read anything into the glow

 

[Grinder]

That paragraph isn't a description of the film, it's from the blurb for Nadeau's book. I doubt the film will be like that since Winterbottom's already said he's not exploring the question of guilt/innocence.

I'm a fan of Winterbottom's previous work - he's normally quite a thoughtful director - so I'm going to withhold judgment on the film until I actually see it. What I can't work out is why he needed to buy the rights to Nadeau's book. There's nothing in there which he couldn't have easily found from the mass of information already in the public domain. Unless he just wanted the title, I suppose...

Hard to understand the need to buy any book to make this movie.

 

[LondonJohn]

If she was dying when the sexual assault took place would there be any sign of forced sex?

This is exactly my contention. I believe that the most likely scenario which fits the known evidence is that Guede signalled his intention to perform some form of sexual assault on Meredith while he was controlling her at knifepoint. In my opinion, this probably consisted of Guede starting to remove Meredith's jeans (and possibly her top/bra too). I think that this is the trigger that caused Meredith to start to struggle and call out, and in turn this is what precipitated the fatal knife wounds.

I think that, horrible as it is, Guede then continued with his intention once Meredith was lying dying and incapacitated. I think that this is exactly why there are no marks or bruising that would be otherwise associated with forced sexual contact by a man on a woman.

 

[RoseMontague]

Still doesn't really explain why he needed to buy the rights to Barbie's book. I think the actual main main character is a film-maker, according to the Telegraph:

Interesting. Many branches on the same tree.

 

[katy_did]

From a common sense point of view it's obvious that while signs of violence can indicate a rape or sexual assault, lack of those signs can't rule it out. To think otherwise would be dangerous. Women might comply with the demands of the rapist to avoid getting hurt, especially if they're being threatened with a knife, or for whatever reason there may just not be any obvious signs. Especially if it wasn't 'rape' in the sense of intercourse, as appears to be the case here. That obviously doesn't mean to say that whatever happened must have been consensual.

If the police or prosecution took Lalli's assessment that there weren't any clear indications of sexual violence to mean any sexual contact must have been consensual, that just shows their ignorance.

 

[LondonJohn]

The luminol was applied to the point of creating puddles, if my interpretation is correct. Colonel Garofano also mentioned this problem. One thing that should be studied experimentally is whether or not overapplication of luminol increases the chances of a false positive. Another thing that should be studied is whether the overapplication of luminol would increase the odds of a TMB test's failing because something in the luminol is incompatible. A correctly applied luminol test should not interfere with a TMB test, however.

Not only that, but the police photos clearly show that they pushed the exposure settings well beyond normal recommended levels, perhaps in an attempt to "push" the results. A look at the photos themselves shows significant levels of "light noise" that could not possibly have been crime-related (they are mainly in the form of a galaxy of tiny speck of apparent luminescence, in areas where there could not have been any blood misting).

I believe from memory that one or more of the police Luminol photos actually showed the exposure settings, but I can't be bothered to check back right now. However, I feel confident to assert that these photos were significantly overexposed, and that therefore the results are immediately questionable.

 

[LondonJohn]

From a common sense point of view it's obvious that while signs of violence can indicate a rape or sexual assault, lack of those signs can't rule it out. To think otherwise would be dangerous. Women might comply with the demands of the rapist to avoid getting hurt, especially if they're being threatened with a knife, or for whatever reason there may just not be any obvious signs. Especially if it wasn't 'rape' in the sense of intercourse, as appears to be the case here. That obviously doesn't mean to say that whatever happened must have been consensual.

If the police or prosecution took Lalli's assessment that there weren't any clear indications of sexual violence to mean any sexual contact must have been consensual, that just shows their ignorance.

True. I might perhaps add the potentially-important point that Meredith's trousers were totally removed by her killer. My own belief is that if Guede had wanted to do no more than digitally penetrate her, it would have been both unnecessary and cumbersome to go to the trouble of completely removing her jeans - pulling them down to below the crotch would have given Guede all the access he would have needed.

I personally think that Guede did in fact rape Meredith (in the full sense of vaginal penetration with the penis). I think he withdrew before ejaculation, and that perhaps the Stefanoni-destroyed towels and/or the pillowcase might have given us more evidence in this regard. Bear in mind also that the epithelial cells of Guede's found inside Meredith's vagina could just have easily come from the surface of his penis than from his finger.

 

[katy_did]

This is exactly my contention. I believe that the most likely scenario which fits the known evidence is that Guede signalled his intention to perform some form of sexual assault on Meredith while he was controlling her at knifepoint. In my opinion, this probably consisted of Guede starting to remove Meredith's jeans (and possibly her top/bra too). I think that this is the trigger that caused Meredith to start to struggle and call out, and in turn this is what precipitated the fatal knife wounds.

I think that, horrible as it is, Guede then continued with his intention once Meredith was lying dying and incapacitated. I think that this is exactly why there are no marks or bruising that would be otherwise associated with forced sexual contact by a man on a woman.

That's a somewhat circular argument. Guede assaulted Meredith (quite possibly leaving his DNA at this point) which caused Meredith to fight back. The reason there are no further signs of a sexual assault is because she was incapacitated at the time it happened. But if in your own scenario the DNA could have been left earlier, what's your reason for thinking the assault continued at all? The lack of signs that it did?

I think in any case this is a red herring - as I said above, lack of obvious signs of a sexual assault can never rule out the possibility that it happened.

 

[LondonJohn]

That's a somewhat circular argument. Guede assaulted Meredith (quite possibly leaving his DNA at this point) which caused Meredith to fight back. The reason there are no further signs of a sexual assault is because she was incapacitated at the time it happened. But if in your own scenario the DNA could have been left earlier, what's your reason for thinking the assault continued at all? The lack of signs that it did?

I think in any case this is a red herring - as I said above, lack of obvious signs of a sexual assault can never rule out the possibility that it happened.

The total removal of Meredith's jeans.

ETA: Plus, in my opinion, there's a vast difference for a woman between being controlled and subdued at knifepoint (perhaps thinking that you may be robbed and/or tied up), and being sexually violated. My own personal opinion (and that's ALL it is, remember...) is that Meredith could very well have been successfully controlled by Guede when she believed that the worst of his intentions was robbery and a successful escape. I believe that this all changed when Guede signalled that his intentions were also sexual in nature. Just. My. Opinion.

 

[katy_did]

True. I might perhaps add the potentially-important point that Meredith's trousers were totally removed by her killer. My own belief is that if Guede had wanted to do no more than digitally penetrate her, it would have been both unnecessary and cumbersome to go to the trouble of completely removing her jeans - pulling them down to below the crotch would have given Guede all the access he would have needed.

Sorry, we cross-posted. Well, this just gets back to the question of when her jeans were removed I guess - before or after. Personally I can't see how she can possibly have been wearing them while being dragged through that pool of blood in the corner, not without leaving very obvious bloodstains.

He may certainly have intended more, but that doesn't necessarily mean it happened.

TrueI personally think that Guede did in fact rape Meredith (in the full sense of vaginal penetration with the penis). I think he withdrew before ejaculation, and that perhaps the Stefanoni-destroyed towels and/or the pillowcase might have given us more evidence in this regard. Bear in mind also that the epithelial cells of Guede's found inside Meredith's vagina could just have easily come from the surface of his penis than from his finger.

Well, perhaps. I still think he'd have made up a story to account for a rape (in the sense you use it) if it had happened - I doubt Guede's all that knowledgeable about DNA testing to have worked out exactly what they could and couldn't tell from the evidence he left.

 

[katy_did]

The total removal of Meredith's jeans.

Evidence it happened after?

(You're probably replying to my last post as I type this )

 

[katy_did]

ETA: Plus, in my opinion, there's a vast difference for a woman between being controlled and subdued at knifepoint (perhaps thinking that you may be robbed and/or tied up), and being sexually violated. My own personal opinion (and that's ALL it is, remember...) is that Meredith could very well have been successfully controlled by Guede when she believed that the worst of his intentions was robbery and a successful escape. I believe that this all changed when Guede signalled that his intentions were also sexual in nature. Just. My. Opinion.

Hmmm. We'll have to agree to disagree on that one I think. I don't dispute at all that it could have been a trigger - actually I probably agree, I just disagree about the jeans thing - but I certainly don't think this is necessarily true at all. There are cases where women have asked the rapist to wear a condom, for example, but that certainly doesn't mean the sex was consensual.

 

[LondonJohn]

That's a somewhat circular argument. Guede assaulted Meredith (quite possibly leaving his DNA at this point) which caused Meredith to fight back. The reason there are no further signs of a sexual assault is because she was incapacitated at the time it happened. But if in your own scenario the DNA could have been left earlier, what's your reason for thinking the assault continued at all? The lack of signs that it did?

I think in any case this is a red herring - as I said above, lack of obvious signs of a sexual assault can never rule out the possibility that it happened.

I've also just realised that you've misread (or at least misinterpreted) my post. My hypothesis is that Guede INITIATED HIS INTENTION TO PERFORM a sexual assault, by (perhaps) unbuttoning and starting to pull down Meredith's jeans. And that this is what caused Meredith to fight back. Long before Guede made any contact (digital or otherwise) with her actual genital region.

 

[Grinder]

What would make you think finding blood in a very diluted state was related to the murder? What is the source of the dilution in the murder room?

You need to reread what I wrote. I said that blood could be there in a very diluted state and it could even be from long ago because blood is very hard to get rid of.

I don't think there's any reason to suppose those luminol hits all happened at the same time either, what would indicate that, especially being as it's not like they form a coherent trail or anything?

You mean the cause of the hits need not have occurred at the same. Sure.

I know what you mean about 'spottier,' I was suggesting that in the process of all those people walking in that hall, some of whom came directly from outside without care to preserve a crime scene, someone tracked in moisture either from outside or the bathroom and (perhaps another person and/or at a different time) someone tracked over the bloody shoeprints Rudy left.[/quote[

Seems unlikely to me but I do think Amanda could have transferred the blood from the mat.

What I need to do is show you what the floor looked like once the three (adorable!) little rugrats my brother owns got home from the pumpkin patch and corn maze yesterday, each of whose shoes had been carefully cleaned before they went inside. However one (at least) still had some dirt somewhere on their shoes or found some, another (at least) found moisture from elsewhere, and despite the best laid plans the floor ended up with faint little brown shoeprints in numerous locations. Next time they get carried in by their ankles!

My latest idea is to have a corn maze at night with zombies!

How would that matter to what CD says? Do you expect her to use textspeak like Amanda does in her e-mail or spell testimony and murderer like she does in her note as well? {/quote]

Just addressing how I used met. It wasn't a text it was a convo.

It doesn't have to do with not wanting to deal with it, at least not in my case, it just so happens that residual alcohol is a plausible explanation. In another thread (here) there's a story about a girl who still had a .012 BAC seven hours after imbibing, she was 13 and not a regular drinker. That was not the case with Meredith and by the account I read when she came in ~4 AM she was having her own set of problems and no doubt had a significantly higher tolerance than a 13 year-old light drinker.

Well the numbers don't add up. Candace says 5:30 btw but let's say 5 am - and that TOD was 9:30 that's 16 and half hours. At the scientifically established .015 per hour of processing alcohol that would mean she had about .26 in her system when she arrived home. If you wish to believe that fine. What set of problems was she having?

What's relevant here is the tolerance of a regularly drinking college student who spends all night drinking and whether high amounts of alcohol can allow the very last amounts to linger a little longer than the 0.016 depletion rate would suggest. I know you can link a dozen charts saying that rate is an absolute, but were a yacht to be placed on it I'd say that curve might just level out a little at the very end and some of the last vestiges don't go 'gently into that good night.'

Although I'm low in yachts right now I would bet that the vast majority of alcohol processes at .015-6. In an earlier back and forth I said that some small slowdown would surprise me. Rose has a chart that shows number of hours to get to zero (no source IIRC) but Meredith had a full drink in her system not just a trace. I didn't cherry pick the sites they were the first ones under search of something like "how long to process alcohol"

If Meredith didn't drink with the English girls and it wasn't residual alcohol, then it would pretty much have to be she drank when she came home or with Rudy Guede.

Whoa cowboy! I think it's possible but there are other possibilities such as the girl covering for their friend.

I doubt the latter as he would have included it in his story as there ought to be some evidence of it. It would certainly help with his contention they had a date if they had a drink together, there's no reason for him to hide it that I can see. It could be that glass on her desk (nightstand?) held a shot she took when she came home before she filled it with water as a chaser, possibly they had a bottle in the house I never heard of. That would explain it, but does it really matter one way or another?

I agree with your analysis generally here. She did buy Giacomo a bottle for his birthday and she did have access to the lower flat.

I don't know if it matters, but I think it could.

 

[Supernaut]

Well, I dont know who "most everyone" is actually. Are you saying these people have direct evidence about the nature of the relationship between Knox and Guede? Because I would love to see the proof of this. But if there is no proof then what CD claims is at least as truthful as what you or most everyone else says.

I think Knox was questioned about this. IIRC she said one meeting in the street that was continued in the boys downstairs place. And possibly Guede may have come into LeChic once where she may or may not have served him.

To this point I think the most valuable evidence is the fact that Knox could not recall Guedes name when listing men who had visited either upstairs or downstairs while being questioned that first or second day. She never did come up with the name...only a description. But then again she is a sly genius idiot savant who smells bad so...????

I have no dog in this fight but I find it distracting to more important details about this case. CD book was one of the first books I read after Marks book and after Barbies...I thought it was good. I couldn't get past Barbies sweeping generalizations regarding college life in 2007 and the title bothered me since it assumed guilt. Marks book was very good as were Bruce Fishers two books. For the PGP side I enjoyed Paul Russell book Darkness Descending. Of course I already understood that I needed to watch that one closely since the author was allegedly fired from the production of a documentary on the Kercher case for a British TV Channel in which he may have failed to submit a balanced story...And yet he was in court often and others have described him as someone who could only parrot Migninis story. To me this helped confirm the suspicion that the TV firing might actually be true. So he wrote a book and he hired Garafano to give him creditably and then he presented Migninis case in book form. It is quite apparent he continues to be blindly obsessed with just the one side of the case.

Finally I think when someone who brings to the various forums information and who contends to be closely involved inside the case should not be coddled and hidden when clear conflicts of interest are discovered. For example a public person was revealed on another site as a moderator on a PGP site and also they revealed his identity along with his real life web page where we could read that this man not only thinks of himself as a GOD but is also someone who claims to treat children with a cure for Autism for X amount of dollars. For me this seems like fraud abusing suffering peoples hopes for whatever the size of their bankroll is. 25 thousand IIRC. At least now posters interacting with this "God" can have an idea of who they are discussing this case with. I think this is fair and in fact it is dishonest to keep such extremely held views and ideas secreted behind an alias.

SO we have Paul Russell a person from a theater background who also produces TV documentaries with a production partner named Andrea Vogt.

The same Paul Russell allegedly fired from the production of a Kercher Murder documentary for presenting unbalanced submissions that were too prosecution friendly but who then certainly went on to author the book about the Kercher murder called Darkness Descending.

On his web site he speaks of professional integrity and the need to present a balanced story like for the Costa Concordia case that he and Vogt are making into a documentary and which he hopes to sell to the likes of The Discovery Channel. He goes on to explain how trust must be earned in order to gain access to the places and people who control the situation...hummm. I wonder who could grant such inner access? And at what cost?

No matter...not my concern. What is my concern is that someone pretending to be someone else... say an Italian legal expert or heck just an Italian (did I mention Russell is a Brit) could visit various sites and pollute the story by pretending to be close to the heart of the case and meanwhile is clearly only a talking head who is making payment on access formally granted perhaps? Or assistance on some access in the future? Who could order these things?Well as far as Costa Concordia it is irrelevant...this is a clear case of murder and cowardice...no matter who tries to spin it any other way. The AK and RS case OTOH is different. A case where two innocent persons are clearly being railroaded and abused by the judicial system of Italy. Someone pretending to be a key player should reveal his true self and motivations or else stop lying to the newer and more easily influenced...and those who think they are learning new things from this poster are wrong... they are hearing the same record of 5 years now. Not one new thing and not even one fact...forget new.

OT, but today I studied the web to find the perfect never fail pie crust recipe. The trees in my yard are loaded this year after being barren for the previous 3. So apple pies will be made and also made and frozen for winter.
Yummi!!!!

I just had a thought;

what would happen if you google-translated good English into Italian and then back into English?

Maybe, with a little re-editing, something very like "machiavelli's" prose, which never seems to improve?

It is a little odd, when you think about it - no real improvement in his English in over FOUR YEARS of posting (and, presumably, reading), what must amount to several hundred-thousands of words by now.

You could almost keep up to speed on a forum by using voice-recognition software to create the initial English, and then spend a few minutes editing the translated / reverse-translated text into something vaguely intelligible (if that's not too flattering to mach's stuff).

Voila! Cod-English with lot's of long words used in odd contexts, and generally very odd syntax and grammar, even for a 2nd-language English speaker.