The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[psionl0]

taken to the theoretical extreme, if you could never take any losses at all, even if you never got any wins either, you'd still be away ahead of the other 90%.

The only way to win is not to play?

 

[AdMan]

taken to the theoretical extreme, if you could never take any losses at all, even if you never got any wins either, you'd still be away ahead of the other 90%.

That's no "theoretical extreme", it's just nonsense. So do nothing, and beat the other 90%?

A lot of the decision is also subjective and based on experience, the more used you are to watching the live market action, the more you can get a feel for whether its running the usual kind of rhythm...

Yeah, the more you are like fairground palm readers believing they can actually read people's palms, or amateur cold readers whose "successes" start to fool themselves.

 

[kevsta]

more inane drivel..

why are you even talking about something you dont have the foggiest idea about? I bet you don't barge into military establishments and tell them how to fly their attack helicopters do you? and you have as much clue about that, as this.

Yeah, the more you are like fairground palm readers believing they can actually read people's palms, or amateur cold readers whose "successes" start to fool themselves.

you are projecting, this is your ridiculous financial industry you describe.

"the fleecing of the lambs muppets."

 

[kevsta]

The only way to win is not to play?

probably the safest way.

 

[AdMan]

why are you even talking about something you dont have the foggiest idea about? I bet you don't barge into military establishments and tell them how to fly their attack helicopters do you?

What is with your obsession with attack helicopters?

 

[kevsta]

What is with your obsession with attack helicopters?

its just another example of something that is extremely difficult to do. and as I have a friend who used to fly them, yet can't trade (although can at least see it now) the subject has come up..

the point is that you know as much about either subject, and that is zero.

and whilst I cant fly attack helicopters, my friend wishes he could see this like me.

 

[AdMan]

its just another example of something that is extremely difficult to do. and as I have a friend who used to fly them, yet can't trade (although can at least see it now) the subject has come up..

the point is that you know as much about either subject, and that is zero.

and whilst I cant fly attack helicopters, my friend wishes he could see this like me.

One skill has absolutely nothing to do with the other.

It's bizarre why you keep comparing them.

 

[kevsta]

One skill has absolutely nothing to do with the other.

says the person who has tried neither.

It's bizarre why you keep comparing them.

its bizarre how people comment on things they know nothing about too.

but thats what its like round here

 

[AdMan]

says the person who has tried neither.



its bizarre how people comment on things they know nothing about too.

but thats what its like round here

So go somewhere else where people make as bizarre connections as you do.

 

[AdMan]

"I fly attack helicopters but I can't unclog a toilet!"

Certainly proves unclogging a toilet requires incredibly difficult skill.

 

[kevsta]

So go somewhere else where people make as bizarre connections as you do.

er, make me. would be the usual response.

in this instance however I do think I've probably wasted enough time on this now and am getting very bored of the lack of understanding (or remembering) of very simple stuff.

I don't see there's much point continuing really. I tell you whats going to happen, it happens, you all deny it.. gets a bit dull after a while.

 

[kevsta]

"I fly attack helicopters but I can't unclog a toilet!"

Certainly proves unclogging a toilet requires incredibly difficult skill.

you could possibly manage the second of these I suppose. are you a plumber?

 

[AdMan]

you could possibly manage the second of these I suppose. are you a plumber?

I can unclog a toilet.

Just as I can recognize the BS you are pushing in this thread.

 

[AdMan]

in this instance however I do think I've probably wasted enough time on this now and am getting very bored of the lack of understanding (or remembering) of very simple stuff.

Yeah, you keep repeating this.

Yet you're still hanging around, aren't you? Can't find anyone who'll listen?

 

[kevsta]

Yeah, you keep repeating this.

Yet you're still hanging around, aren't you? Can't find anyone who'll listen?

I keep repeating a lot of things, but to no avail, its true.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I tell you whats going to happen, it happens, you all deny it.. gets a bit dull after a while.

True.

What would liven things up is to demonstrate to us that this really works in real time with real money and that you can make real profits consistently. That's what would make me far more likely to be swayed than your post hoc drawing on charts.

Yes, you sometimes have "called" market moves. But much of the time we're hearing about moves the other way and why that hardly matters, since your "betting scheme" will work even when you're wrong by limiting losses while letting profits run just a tad further. Even if your overall accuracy is only 50%. That part of your strategy is nothing new and has been tried in all sorts of markets (and casinos and OTB sites) for as long as there have been such markets.

In the podcasts I linked to, they speak of computers seeking to find patterns and inefficiencies in the market in real time. BIG computers, whose access to information is measured in nanosecond delays, such that an extra one one meter of cable can can put one computer at a measurable disadvantage to another.

That's what you're up against, trying to find what I guess might be called "higher order" patterns and inefficiencies that those computers just miss somehow - via your superior recognition of 3-push patterns or whatever.

Here is a video I found on the "flash crash". Worth a watch, if only because I learned why they call them "stocks"!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1Ln1UCoEU&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Finally, to help me out, what is a "stop run"? And how are those behemoth computers not catching them before you do? Your 15 to 30 minute time frames must seem an eternity to them.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

That's no "theoretical extreme", it's just nonsense. So do nothing, and beat the other 90%?




Yeah, the more you are like fairground palm readers believing they can actually read people's palms, or amateur cold readers whose "successes" start to fool themselves.

Yep. I believe Richard Feynman had something to say about this. But he wasn't an attack helicopter pilot, so what did he know?

 

[kevsta]

True.

What would liven things up is to demonstrate to us that this really works in real time with real money and that you can make real profits consistently. That's what would make me far more likely to be swayed than your post hoc drawing on charts.

thing is, I called it the

"Markets Charts & Trading Thread"

for a specific reason, because that is the subject

as opposed to:

"Kevsta's Live Trading Results Reported Online Continually To a Bunch of Trading-Illiterate Strangers Who Dont Read, Understand, or Remember Anything Anyway"

you know? and so being as what would make you happy will not be forthcoming, I wont be offended if you don't follow on any more, ok?

Yes, you sometimes have "called" market moves.

well thank you for that much acknowledgement at least.

But much of the time we're hearing about moves the other way and why that hardly matters, since your "betting scheme" will work even when you're wrong by limiting losses while letting profits run just a tad further.

well, yes? its a multi-faceted system that is primarily down to a human's implementation as to actual results, however there is zero doubt that the system market turning points *could* be traded perfectly. the human limitations however means that doesnt happen very often, and so damage limitation and stacking the odds in your favor are obviously desirable if possible?

Even if your overall accuracy is only 50%. That part of your strategy is nothing new and has been tried in all sorts of markets (and casinos and OTB sites) for as long as there have been such markets.

"tried"? it's like you haven't heard of the risk:reward concept before? it's only been an integral part of trading from the very beginning, as far as I'm aware? risk:reward is a very simple concept, it just means you simply need more movement in the direction of your win, than you allow to lose. YOU set these points on every trade. then price fills in the gap, and you either win or lose, but I can set stops at 3 pips and take profits at 300 pips if I want and only need to win 1 in 100 trades.

of course obscene leverage is a more recent development and needs factoring in, but this is all just factual, "how it is", when trading on margin, and is not up for debate.

the ONLY variable here is can you take the trades in the right place at the right time, to ever achieve your risk:reward targets.

and yes, such is life. there are few truly original ideas, only successful or otherwise implementation of them. in this case however I want to discuss a few definite phenomena, only.

In the podcasts I linked to, they speak of computers seeking to find patterns and inefficiencies in the market in real time. BIG computers, whose access to information is measured in nanosecond delays, such that an extra one one meter of cable can can put one computer at a measurable disadvantage to another.

That's what you're up against, trying to find what I guess might be called "higher order" patterns and inefficiencies that those computers just miss somehow - via your superior recognition of 3-push patterns or whatever.

Yes, interesting though it was, it was fairly basic information, speaking primarily about the quote-stuffing (front running) high frequency traders scalping pennies off minute transactions. I am as you might possibly expect fairly well versed in various algorithmic trading activity already.

However while microsecond speed advantages to skim sub pennies from trades in an instant can never be competed against by the likes of me, those are not the moves we are looking for.

We are looking for the 80ish pip moves that happen mostly daily, and we are looking to get in right after the stoprun where all the early longs lose, because then, and only then, will that move start.

Here is a video I found on the "flash crash". Worth a watch, if only because I learned why they call them "stocks"!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1Ln1UCoEU&feature=youtube_gdata_player

seen it before, and interesting comments below I thought

Many hackers have disapeared of the web-hacking scene these last years. Now i know what they are doing ...

interesting day too, the flash crash threw a huge great single push back down in response to the 3 up, then rebounded to where push 1 should have stopped, then calmly ran the next 2 cycles down like normal.

note, the elusive 4th push line (up) sighted here is just the extended 3rd push, being as it subsequently pivoted and reversed around the L3 zone - had it gone up another level, that would indeed have been a 4th push. ..like 4 leave clovers they are.

note yet again, system unfazed and even had us pointing the right way before the crash. wish I had been on the top of that one, but even if you missed it, you could just take it again a week later.

and a larger (weekly chart) 3 push view is shown by the red lines, looks like just a particularly forceful push 1 here, like gold.

Finally, to help me out, what is a "stop run"? And how are those behemoth computers not catching them before you do? Your 15 to 30 minute time frames must seem an eternity to them.

this, is a stoprun

ie, the last thing that happens before a new upward trend begins, is a violent spike downwards through the previous "floor" level, and an immediate reversal.

the reason it is called a "stop run" is because whether it is intentional or not, anybody (traders) who had bought prior to it, have their stops hit and now have to sell back at a loss, and so instead of having a winning trade, sold their due-to-be successful position to the ultimate winners, right before the real move starts

there is not even the most beginner trader in the world who does not know what a stoprun is. not after 2 or 3 trades anyway, although they are possibly still attributing it to "bad luck" at this point.

the majority of them dont seem to appreciate their positional significance, although as they do only matter, in the right place, at the right time, yet appear everywhere all the time at every timescale, its fairly obvious why those not familiar with cycle don't understand their importance at specific times only.

this chart shows 2 stopruns, Friday's and today's[/URL], note the last thing that happens before the big upspike is a drive downwards, and rapid reversal (leaving pins facing downwards) which does hit many trader's stoplosses. this is absolutely indisputable.

THAT RIGHT THERE IS WHERE RETAIL TRADERS LOSE EN MASSE & IS THE "IN" SIGNAL FOR US.
It is not a "Stoprun" if the price moves in the opposite direction and keeps going, only if it first takes you (retail world) out at a loss, and then goes where they bet anyway.

Once again "Robbed, and then the train goes without you"

"Hit the stops, hit the stops, *POP* "

so to assume that the perpetual winner's algorithms are not involved in this perpetual cycle is probably a tad naive or has not been properly thought out at least, IMO.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

THAT RIGHT THERE IS WHERE RETAIL TRADERS LOSE EN MASSE & IS THE "IN" SIGNAL FOR US.[/URL][/B]

Where US = People who are playing with pretend money.

 

[kevsta]

Where US = People who are playing with pretend money.

what dont you understand about a $5trillion a day market where to every loser there is a winner?

this is the simplest concept in this entire thread and you are purely delusional if you think the $5 trillion a day traded is "pretend" money.

..in the infantile way you think about it anyway.