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Upcoming parliamentary elections in Germany

bonncaruso1 said:
Yes, I have encountered Westerwelle on a number of occasions, I have sung concerts for him twice now. When he comes to ritzy parties, he comes with an entourange of about 15 young men, between 20-25, all with very, very big shoe sizes.. :)
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So, you are suggesting he engages in afterhours gay orgies?

I would think as foreign minister he has already be subject to blackmail by the Russians and Israelis.
 
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Francesca R said:
(FWIW I know a ton of Germans and they almost all never discuss politics)

I have never heard anyone describe the FDP (or any electable German party) as to the right of the GOP. I don't think you will hear much agreement on that. I believe that currently an issue for Merkel is that the FDP may fail to get 5% of the vote which would rule it out as a coalition partner for the CDU. Or even if it does pass 5% the Bundestag numbers may still not work. In which case the next likely outcome would be CDU-SPD as in 2005-09. Except that Peer Steinbrueck (SPD leader) has stated he is "not available" for this, so presumably has to find some way to climb down from that.

In any case, I tentatively expect (renewed) fireworks around the EMU debt crisis--which has been in abatement since a few months ago--after the federal election is over.
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It seems the FDP is a really messed up party. Its current chairman is Vietnamese.
 
MaGZ said:
These anti-nationalist thugs who show up against the NDP are usually communists: a very small minority needing attention.
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As opposed to the No-Really-We-Swear-We're-Not-Nazis NDP, eh?


In the early days, the NSDAP was received with similar derision.
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Should've received more.
 
MaGZ said:
So, you are suggesting he engages in afterhours gay orgies?

I would think as foreign minister he has already be subject to blackmail by the Russians and Israelis.
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MaGZ, pulling our leg since 2007.
 
The NPD exists since 1964 and in all their time they have never managed to influence policy in any way. Say what you want about the NSDAP, but they were a lot more effective ;)
 
MaGZ said:
What are the chances of the NDP making gains in the next election?
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Forget about it. We are not morons. You and your intellectual ancestors had your chance, and once more would be twice too often.
 
MaGZ said:
What are the chances of the NDP making gains in the next election?
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None. The most influence the NDP has had in German federal elections was in 2005 when their candidate in district Dresden-I died and the elections there had to be postponed for two weeks. The possible tactical voting due to the intricate German election system gave the CDU an extra Bundestag seat.
 
MaGZ said:
What are the chances of the NDP making gains in the next election?
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Very, very slim. The NPD essentially reached it's high water mark in 2002-2003, again in 2005 in Dresden (Sachsen) and in Dessau (Sachsen-Anhalt). Since then, the NPD, a bunch of loser wanna-be nazis, has lost the interest even of many extreme right-wing Germans. More dangerous could be a party that is every bit as Right-Wing, but has packaged itself better, to look more friendly, like Pro-Köln.
 
MaGZ said:
So, you are suggesting he engages in afterhours gay orgies?

I would think as foreign minister he has already be subject to blackmail by the Russians and Israelis.
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I am suggesting nothing. Mr. Westerwelle is a very intelligent man and a good politician. What he does in his bedroom does not interest me. I just noted that he likes to travel with entourage. Nothing more.
 
Francesca R said:
Shame that Intrade shut down but below are the odds of various emergent coalitions from Paddy Power

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I see four possibilites, in order of probability:

CDU (CSU) / FDP - 49%

CDU / SPD - over 60%

CDU (CSU) / FDP / Greens - 58% (this pretty unlikely coalition is called the Jamaica-coalition, because it has the same colors as the Jamaican flag)

SPD / Greens / FDP - unlikely to get to 48.6%, would be called the "Streetlight Coalition" because of the RED-YELLOW-GREEN colors.

And the feared coalition that no one really wants:

SPD / Greens / Die Linke (Red, Red, Green) - could theoretically get to 48.6%, if the CDU suddenly sinks. Schröder could have pressed with this coalition in 2005 and maybe, with recounts, come in at 48.6%, but even he was not willing to get in bed with the ultra-reds.

Gotta tell you two things:

EMNID is a very good, very reliable national pollster. They usually put out pretty darned good numbers, within the MoE.

Germans can be just as fickle as Americans vis-a-vis voting. But historically, in most cases, the CDU tends to ever so slightly outperform it's polling values, ditto FDP.
 
EMNID puts out what is called the Sunday-Question :) (Sonntagsfrage)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

Take a look at the values.

The CDU is generally about 14 points ahead of the SPD. It has been hanging steadily at around 40-42%.

The SPD has sunk from 28 to 24 since January.

The Greens are hanging in at around 12%. This is actually better than in past years.

The FDP at between 5-6%.

Right now, if these values absolutely hold, then neither CDU/FDP nor SPD/Greens will be able to build a coalition.

Who is the Pirate-Party (Die Piraten)? Well, in a sort of way, I am tempted to call them the Tea Party of Germany. The are stirring up all kinds of trouble in many towns and cities, encouraging recall elections of issues (called Bürgerbegehren or Bürgerbescheid), they are especially hostile to the arts in any way. The Pirate party is just under the 5% hurdle, I don't believe they are likely to get there, but it could happen.

Which leaves us with the Linkies - the extreme-left, the old worn out communists from the past who are now calling themselves socialists, holding at 8%.

So, let's do the numbers, assuming that the election would be exactly as this current poll is showing, just for demostration purposes:

CDU (CSU) 40 / FDP 6 = 46 - not enough.

SPD 24 / Grüne 12 = 36 - definitely not enough
SPD 24 / Grüne 12 / Linke 8 = 44 - not enough

CDU (CSU) 40 / FDP 6 / Greens 12 = 58 - possible coalition

CDU (CSU) 40 / SPD 24 (Grand Coalition) = 64, a strong possibility, just as in 2005.
 
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