The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

and of course I would also still like to see a SINGLE ONE of you try it for yourselves.

because the very fact that I can make any account I focus on go up, whilst all you will manage is a declining negative balance, is actually the other kind of proof here

 

[AdMan]

If you really had "this level of understanding" that you claim you have you would be able to demonstrate it, not just after-the-fact charts.

You've so far demonstrated nothing, beyond that you can mark up your charts after they happen.

And your silly "demo" accounts count for nothing, unless you're playing Monopoly.

 

[kevsta]

If you really had "this level of understanding" that you claim you have you would be able to demonstrate it, not just after-the-fact charts.

You've so far demonstrated nothing, beyond that you can mark up your charts after they happen.

this is just ridiculous. for days and days I have said what trades I will look for in advance, then taken them. those are the facts, you appear to have your own reality.

And your silly "demo" accounts count for nothing, unless you're playing Monopoly.

yes avoid the subject, the correct predictions, the real money testing account account going up imminently that will follow the pattern I just showed you EXACTLY.

you purport to be a professional yet display the most fundamental lack of understanding about the subject, it's pretty funny.

do you know any algorithmic traders? do you know any traders? here is what my broker says about the demo environment.

http://www.fxpro.co.uk/trading/accounts/open-demo-account

Demo forex accounts allows you to trade with unlimited position sizes and maximum leverage so you can test your strategies in real conditions or using our historical data.

Take the opportunity to see how manual or algorithmic strategies would have performed in particular situations, over individual events and chosen timeframes.

Just as with a Trading Account, opening a forex Demo Account gives you access to real-time market news from our London Insights team as well as exclusive trading recommendations from our blue chip banking partners.

Setting up a forex Demo Account only takes a few moments and requires no paperwork. You can be up and trading FX in a Demo environment within minutes

Now because I do understand what I'm talking about I just laugh at your nonsense, but others reading this should understand that demo environment is identical which is WHY testing is valid, and every single algo or system in the world will be proven on demo first, because if it works THERE it will work live.


personally, I also use it to take more aggressive or subjective trades in the meantime while waiting for the best and actual setup to come, on live.

So because I understand the first thing about the subject, I would be more than happy seeing consistent demo wins from ANYBODY. (but I won't)

however I will use REAL money (does the amount matter now lol ) and as I keep telling you, the results will be no different.

If you all think demo is so easy, how about you prove that to me eh?

chuckle chuckle chuckle.

er.. update? as far as Im concerned this is already game over. but some of you are going to have to work out what comes next if the live one is at +25% at end month one and steadily climbing, aren't you?

update update

5% and climbing, if all 3 pushes go upwards now this is one trade is maybe a 20-40% account size win. http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/xlf5n

 

[kevsta]

from the Hindenberg thread, 11th 12th Aug

11th August

4 Hindies in 5 days this week. but it looks highly likely that we are playing out the top of a longish distribution cycle, I do think there's probably some more downside imminent shortly.
and the Hindenberg only needs a 2% drop to be technically verified doesn't it?

if you can't reliably predict that when its been pushing new all time highs for months now anyway, then it's really not much use, is it.

12th August

well at least you got your wish. 1677 currently, and if we get a "floor fall out" day 1631 is entirely possible again in a few hours.

It didnt get to 1631, it bounced about 4 points above my line at 1651 in fact.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

What?! Are you trying to use actual news to help point where stocks are going to go? Are you mad?? Have you learned nothing?! Where are your charts, man?!?

This is a great case of the news media using post hoc rationalization.

Remember, correlation does not equal causation.

IOW, we had good economic news, and then the market went down. That does not mean that the market went down because of the good economic news. The headline could have just as easily been, "Market soars on good economic news!" or "Market shrugs off good economic news to close essentially unchanged".

BTW, 5% a month compounded should result in HUGE gains over a relatively short time span. One million dollars from ten thousand dollars after 96 months, or 8 years, if Excel is informing me correctly. And ignoring taxes and possibly transaction costs, which proponents are often wont to do.

 

[kevsta]

This is a great case of the news media using post hoc rationalization.

Remember, correlation does not equal causation.

IOW, we had good economic news, and then the market went down. That does not mean that the market went down because of the good economic news. The headline could have just as easily been, "Market soars on good economic news!" or "Market shrugs off good economic news to close essentially unchanged".

BTW, 5% a month compounded should result in HUGE gains over a relatively short time span. One million dollars from ten thousand dollars after 96 months, or 8 years, if Excel is informing me correctly. And ignoring taxes and possibly transaction costs, which proponents are often wont to do.

on the subject of tax (once more) I don't know how else to say this, but it will not apply to me. Not unless current legislation changes anyway

because CapGains is only payable on any profit withdrawn over 10k in any one year, and secondly, prior to that ever becoming an issue I would move to a spreadbetting platform (same thing exactly, legal technicality) which as a UK citizen allows me to trade (or gamble, legally) ENTIRELY Cap Gains tax free.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting#Tax_treatment and all transactions costs are inclusive in net trade profit or loss figures.

WYSIWYG

so, IF I am correct, and this is going to continue working, I personally think it is a far superior way forwards to having to commit money long term to things that my trading mates are going to be playing their games with, into my future.

IF I can generate outsized x10 returns from money invested, and leverage only actually affects the amount of margin you need to put up, nothing else unless you don't understand risk:reward/position size, THEN you're in trouble..

IF IF IF.. cant wait. does it show Im confident though? do you think I would be on here doing this in public is if I wasn't relatively certain of what I was talking about, observations-wise, anyway?

as I have said all along I was looking for input/help/thoughts from people who might know more than me, not outright denial of everything shown, including the obvious but permanently treacherous 3 wave cycle that people have been trying to crack since the 1800s.

In that respect, I haven't gotten much out of this thread personally yet.

However, as ever, I am still learning and have learnt quite a bit about stock movement since starting it, so its not all bad.

 

[kevsta]

With regards the whole special pleading thing once more, as it was leveled at the fact I was facing the wrong way on APPL after nearly a whole week trading it very successfully from the very top, to the very bottom of the 3 pushes down, and with daily gaps in line with cycle, as predicted the day before usually.

I then said this with regards a second potential short entry..

edit. clarification on Apple Trade. it is of course not a given that the price continues down, and this is really where the disputed term otherwise known as manipulation comes in, because unless we see that, at an expected point or higher, nobody is taking that second trade, because it could be about to do one of three other things:

a) run up, hit my stoploss at zero and then roll over and plunge
b) stop run the floor hard and reverse up into 3 upwards cycles c) surge up "inexplicably" - or it could gap past my stoploss at zero from here and steal my money anyway. anything can always happen, but the probability over time, is that after push 1 from a reversal top, comes two and three.

that's what we are trading, probability, and only with exact entries signaled by the dirty word.

so as ever, everybody is free to believe what they want to, but these are the facts. from monthly macro charts to 1 minute charts, the same 3 push cycle is running. whether your brain allows you to process the visual input signals correctly to perceive this, does not change the facts.

of course combinations are always possible too, in this case, (b) and (c)

it did stoprun the floor and reverse up into 3 cycles. always a possibility. I never ever said anything otherwise.

so now, at the top of 3 cycles up, we expect to see the same kind of topping behaviour demonstrated by the S&P and at least one good push down.

whether it then reverses and does 3 more up, or the next 2 down is about 65/35% in general, in favour of the 2 more down.

watch and see. if it bursts out upwards from here and just keeps going, that would be a potential system fail trade, so lets see, but I very much doubt it.

this is because I have taken the time to count an analyse a few hundred examples across multiple markets, have any of you?

the system is not perfect, no system ever can be, but if you have general probability on your side, at good risk:reward a 40% win rate is easily enough to make decent money.

 

[kevsta]

Look, I understand everybody's incredulity, I REALLY do. I absolutely promise you that I could not believe what I started to see, and the further down the line I went, the more my metaphorical jaw has dropped, but THESE ARE THE FACTS I have in front of me.

This is the red and blue computer game I play. This cycle has to run in perpetuity, it is trapped within the confines of a 2 dimensional space, time and level.

It has no choice, but to just keep going up and down, and there are only so many ways it can do that. Now given that we know retail traders follow trendlines, and tend to buy/sell as price crosses them, OR they are trying to trade based on fundamentalolz or technicalolz, ad hide their stoplosses in "safety" behind these lines, and we know as absolutely indisputable fact that previous highs or lows are always taken out, this, then is what my daily life is like.

Now I guarantee that it would be a long time before any of you can do this, but my friend used to fly attack helicopters in the army, and he hasn't been able to trade and win consistently, can any of you fly attack helicopters?

so why should I take any of you seriously then? I would really love it if somebody, somewhere eventually saw my point/s here and we could get in to it, but I do fear Im wasting my time.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

In that respect, I haven't gotten much out of this thread personally yet.

Sorry about that.

A lot of us have really tried to articulate an alternate world view to yours.

But you are quite enamored and buoyed by your apparent new skills, so most critiques of them are likely to fall on deaf ears.

Its not like many of us have not heard of similar schemes and strategies in the past. I remember one to buy stocks with a high beta, immediately putting in a stop loss at 5% below the purchase price to limit the loss to 5%. But if the price went up 5%, then bracket up the stop loss 5%. You would only end up selling after a 5% pullback. The idea is that your loss is limited to 5%, but your gains are virtually limitless. That kind of a strategy has, at times, been more or less mirrored in some of your strategies.

Problem is, historically, this kind of simplistic algorithm simply has not been shown to work once transaction costs are considered.

And one might wonder if 3-wave cycles have predictive power, why has not anyone developed a foolproof way to capitalize on them since the 1800's. I think we have pointed you to fundamental paradoxes inherent in finding perfect algorithms, but like the Holy Grail this sort of thing has a VERY powerful draw.

Again, I hope in 8 years you have your million dollars or pounds or euros or whatever. I would much rather say, "COOL! That actually worked!" as opposed to "I told you so".

Really.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

because the very fact that I can make any account I focus on go up, whilst all you will manage is a declining negative balance, is actually the other kind of proof here

My broker just fell out of his chair from laughing too hard.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

This is a great case of the news media using post hoc rationalization.

Remember, correlation does not equal causation.

IOW, we had good economic news, and then the market went down. That does not mean that the market went down because of the good economic news. The headline could have just as easily been, "Market soars on good economic news!" or "Market shrugs off good economic news to close essentially unchanged".

Yep. Media analysis of financial news is generally pretty useless. My favorite is when they report that "the market dropped 180 points today over renewed fears of inflation", then the next day it rises 200 points "over news of a potential merger between Apple and IBM", and I'm thinking "Wait a minute. I thought we were all worried about inflation"?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Yep. Media analysis of financial news is generally pretty useless. My favorite is when they report that "the market dropped 180 points today over renewed fears of inflation", then the next day it rises 200 points "over news of a potential merger between Apple and IBM", and I'm thinking "Wait a minute. I thought we were all worried about inflation"?

That's just stupid.

It's obviously all about uncertainty over events in Egypt!

 

[kevsta]

Sorry about that.

A lot of us have really tried to articulate an alternate world view to yours.

But you are quite enamored and buoyed by your apparent new skills, so most critiques of them are likely to fall on deaf ears.

If you really genuinely believed you *might* have achieved the impossible, backed up by continually accelerating performance as you get better and better, would you not be somewhat excited at the prospect?

as such, and as the conversations were moving more that route anyway with my burgeoning pictures I decided to start a specific thread about it rather than waylay every other conversation.

I wanted to show everybody in fullness with complete explanations of what I have discovered, and have people critique or comment on the possibilities. Maybe I expected too much in the way of understanding very basic charting, seriously, if you see what most traders screens look like this is kiddy school.

Its not like many of us have not heard of similar schemes and strategies in the past. I remember one to buy stocks with a high beta, immediately putting in a stop loss at 5% below the purchase price to limit the loss to 5%. But if the price went up 5%, then bracket up the stop loss 5%. You would only end up selling after a 5% pullback. The idea is that your loss is limited to 5%, but your gains are virtually limitless. That kind of a strategy has, at times, been more or less mirrored in some of your strategies.

no, not really? how does the risk reward work on your example? its not locked in rock solid, like on mine, is it?

Problem is, historically, this kind of simplistic algorithm simply has not been shown to work once transaction costs are considered.

yes, I know. but once again, Forex is a zero sum game and a $5trillion per day market, who is winning, and much more importantly how?

And one might wonder if 3-wave cycles have predictive power, why has not anyone developed a foolproof way to capitalize on them since the 1800's. I think we have pointed you to fundamental paradoxes inherent in finding perfect algorithms, but like the Holy Grail this sort of thing has a VERY powerful draw.

definitely if ongoing figures point to you really being onto something, yes, it does

Again, I hope in 8 years you have your million dollars or pounds or euros or whatever. I would much rather say, "COOL! That actually worked!" as opposed to "I told you so".

Really.

Thank you. For my part, I totally understand that here I am going:

"this time it's different"

and the probabilities of that being the case. but just sometimes, it is possible..

but I would really like intelligent critique of the observations, because of those, and everything posted here apart from the speculation about "who" and "why", of the "what", I am absolutely certain.

 

[kevsta]

My broker just fell out of his chair from laughing too hard.

this is aimed at YOU personally if hooked up to the hypnotic cycles on Metatrader4, however if you let me know which stocks your broker trades, the probability is that he is in the losers and I'll try and take some money off him personally

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

this is aimed at YOU personally if hooked up to the hypnotic cycles on Metatrader4, however if you let me know which stocks your broker trades, the probability is that he is in the losers and I'll try and take some money off him personally

We don't "trade" any stocks. We buy them, and rarely sell.

 

[AdMan]

Now I guarantee that it would be a long time before any of you can do this, but my friend used to fly attack helicopters in the army, and he hasn't been able to trade and win consistently, can any of you fly attack helicopters?

so why should I take any of you seriously then? I would really love it if somebody, somewhere eventually saw my point/s here and we could get in to it, but I do fear Im wasting my time.

What the hell does being able to fly attack helicopters have to do with investing?

 

[kevsta]

what the hell does investing have to do with trading? wrong thread bud.

 

[kevsta]

here's today's other highlights

if you people seriously dont get it that the only difference between this and real is when I get my bank (in another country) to make a payment to a bank in Cyprus, you aren't paying attention, +6.6% currently in 24 hours.

go on, somebody try it yourselves please, as being eaten alive a few times will also tend to back up what Im telling you I think

 

[AdMan]

what the hell does investing have to do with trading? wrong thread bud.

Investing: Expend money with the expectation of achieving a profit or material result by putting it into financial schemes, shares, or property...

Yes, I see how that wouldn't apply in your case.

 

[kevsta]

no, you are correct, it would be more like expend just a tiny tiny proportion of what is required by an investor, and then systematically skim money out of their accounts into perpetuity at 500x leverage.

As none of you have Forex accounts and I don't see myself dabbling in trading your dubious (in the trading sense, at least) investments much (exceptions could be made) this won't be your money, directly anyway, so you can all relax