The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

Nikkei Update - Shortin your rallies some more

So lets review our whole Nikkei experience thus far together shall we? I know all the disparate images get confusing, so here is our adventure together since we started.

In the Abenomics thread I first stated that we would be heading lower before it could move significantly higher on 24th July and gave a target zone (yellow) the price promptly dived straight into it, price was 14730 then.

I then predicted the second 2 pushes down and named the floor at 13526 and price stopped about 5 points above that, the first time.

I informed you there would be at least one bounce, but that I wouldnt take it unless I saw my setup, and I didn't, but the bounce came.

I then told you that the floor was not firm at that level and to short the rallies. which I then did, from the very top, to within about 50 points from the bottom. ($1mill+ on JREF account)

This time, prior to the bounce that I told you would come, they did break through the floor, then came the bounce.

which I again told you I would be shorting, and once again, appear to have, at the very top.

so your continual shifting of conversation to irrelevancies and avoiding the unpleasant facts are all getting very obvious now, to be honest.

If any of you think this level of accuracy and relative certainty is available in even subscription analysis, I'd have to say you havent seen very much of it.

 

[kevsta]

I would like to short this, but if it runs through 1700 it is quite likely to run 20 or 30 points up even if it did then retrace and stoprun 1700 and plunge.

[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1375287630-clip-41kb.png[/qimg]

patience required, and take them on demo.

a week or so I was musing about the "perfect entry" S&P short, and it might yet end up being so.

that should say daily not hourly upbars (so 9 straight days) on this pic, and so but lets hope it not the big one, because I do want to be on the end of that when it comes

 

[Fudbucker]

Yes, it is.



No, its not.

Other than you, does anyone else lurking on this thread NOT see "special pleading" at work? "The system works, except when it doesn't, due to X"?

Finally, I really am making an effort to see your patterns as real entities - if they are they will be evidence of something.

Here's my problem:

Look at this chart:

[qimg]http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3693/9500646847_23c1cc548b.jpg[/qimg]

Why could not each of the blue arrows have been counted as an independent "push" upward?

Why could not the red arrow be counted as an independent "push" downward, and why is the "push" up right before it not identified with a blue line as a "push" upwards?

Why are the two downward "pushes" indicated by the yellow arrows not consolidated into one large downward push? If its the little "push" up in the middle that separates them, why is that not identified with a blue line as a "push" upward?

I am still taking the time to peruse this stuff because it would be interesting if there's a "there" there. But to this point, it all seems too subjective and arbitrary to have any real predictive value.

I see a lot of it, and I don't see any predictions being made before the latest bump in silver/gold.

 

[kevsta]

I see a lot of it

Im really getting bored of this, it's ridiculous. none of you appear to be using your brains at all.

I'm not pleading anything from anybody, I am wiping the floor with your toupees in fact because its got nasty unpleasant facts, facts that you don't like, granted, but facts all the same smeared all over it.

again, if you cant count to three, it is your problem, not mine. it is in fact very much my advantage.

and I don't see any predictions being made before the latest bump in silver/gold.

you mean from me? this isnt a gold or silver thread there are others of those, and I'm not supposed to be trading them, but watch anyway, you want me to go all "which way next" on them too then?

 

[kevsta]

hahahaha am I allowed to move my 3rd drawn push 4 hours to the right on the time axis? it is after all impossible to know when, ie whether they all arrive in a rush, or there are delays in between, but we are pretty sure of the number by now.

+2.5% but I just moved the TP up, it could run on. weekly target smashed by Wed again if I cashed out now. I'm growing to like the Aussie I have to say, I think we can be good mates. and I'm actually going to go to the beach tomorrow too.

well if nothing else I think I have thoroughly laid waste to the nonsense that "it is impossible to predict anything from charts", even if you don't like or believe the way I do it, eh.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

well if nothing else I think I have thoroughly laid waste to the nonsense that "it is impossible to predict anything from charts", even if you don't like or believe the way I do it, eh.

Just curious...

...does anyone following this thread agree with the above?


Oh, and I think the tag line, "probably more reliable than Hindenberg" should read "probably more reliable than Heisenberg", though I'm more than a little uncertain on that.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I bet this guy is a lot more successful than you. Just look at all those circles and lines and arrows!!! And words, even!!!

 

[kevsta]

Just curious...

...does anyone following this thread agree with the above?

you obviously dont but I think you are in pure denial, there is 10 (and I dont think I'll be making it to ten) pages full of mostly quite accurate predictions (yet to come at the time) here.

youre starting to sound like the Black Knight in Monty Python.

"No its not! you didn't. no that doesnt count because I cant count. No its not."

lulz indeed.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Fine.

Can you predict your way to real profits using real money?

This has yet to be determined.

I'm only following this thread to see if, in fact, you can. I'm not dismissing your claims out of hand. In fact, I think it would be pretty cool if you could pull this off.

Again, do you have access to $10,000? If so, what's stopping you from "putting your money where your mouth charts are"?

Let's go already! Make believe time is over.

 

[kevsta]

once again the straw donkey. I think this has looped round as many times as I can cope with now.

sorry if the market truths weren't quite what you were expecting, what with news and fundamentals and all that, but yes I think I will just go and get on with it quietly instead.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Well, good luck if and when you try it for real.

I'd be really interested in how it turns out.

Let us know, won or lose, will you?

 

[AdMan]

Can you predict your way to real profits using real money?

No, he cannot.

 

[Fudbucker]

you obviously dont but I think you are in pure denial, there is 10 (and I dont think I'll be making it to ten) pages full of mostly quite accurate predictions (yet to come at the time) here.

youre starting to sound like the Black Knight in Monty Python.



lulz indeed.

You sound like certain people I've known who were convinced they had a system that could beat the casinos. They would even snicker at "rubes" who didn't follow their system. But they all came back empty handed.

To make a long story short, nothing to see here, folks.

 

[psionl0]

I'm sorry to say this Kevsta but you will never make money by writing "Investing for Dummies".

The simplest way to silence your critics is to put 100 Euros in a JREF Demo account. Then you make posts like this:

I sold 500 USD for 373.22 Euros*

* You can skip all the boring bits about margins and shorts

Sometime later:

3rd Push: bought the 500 USD back. Cost including fees was 371.24 Euros.
Profit was 1.98 Euros.
Current balance is 101.98 Euros. Made a 2% profit so far.

You can even include a chart showing when you bought and sold the USD

If you can make enough posts like this you will have the skeptics queuing up to buy shares in the Kevsta Investment Fund.

 

[Puppycow]

Oh noes! Good economic news!

Stocks go weak following strong economic reports

U.S. stocks stumbled Thursday after a series of strong economic reports raised investor concerns that the Federal Reserve could begin to withdraw some of its economic stimulus next month.

Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to the lowest level in almost six years, signaling a continued recovery in the employment market. Confidence among U.S. home builders rose this month, reaching its highest level since 2005. Consumer prices, a reflection of inflation, rose 0.2 percent last month.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Oh noes! Good economic news!

Stocks go weak following strong economic reports

My charts predicted this. There were three push limits this past week, and people were selling into the Hindenburg crosswalk. Couple that with millions of shares being shorted ahead of drop zones, and it was obvious what was going to happen.

 

[AdMan]

Oh noes! Good economic news!

Stocks go weak following strong economic reports

What?! Are you trying to use actual news to help point where stocks are going to go? Are you mad?? Have you learned nothing?! Where are your charts, man?!?

 

[kevsta]

lulz, US stocks tumbled because their 23 day distribution period was finally over, as signaled by the shift bar moving the zone below 1676

Oh, and I think the tag line, "probably more reliable than Hindenberg" should read "probably more reliable than Heisenberg", though I'm more than a little uncertain on that.

dunno, doesnt seem so far off really. dont think Hindy gives specific floor break tips on the morning does he?

lets see how it runs, I said this on page one of the thread

"I would like to short this.."

there is a bounce due first, but if we get 3 downwards cycles were aiming at 1616 area next, I just bought the dip too. after seeing Apple close on the lows and then gap up, when the S&P did it I took a pop, as need to train myself to be able to go long on that anyway.

 

[AdMan]

lulz, US stocks tumbled because their 23 day distribution period was finally over, as signaled by the shift bar moving the zone below 1676

"Lulz" (are you pretending to be 13?), no, they didn't.

Claiming that's so demonstrates you're not much better than a typical Nostradamus interpreter.

ETA: if you could actually predict movements like this based on your analysis of the "23 day distribution period" or other such BS, not only could you win the MDC, but you would be astronomically rich.

But you're not.

It's all bullcrap.

 

[kevsta]

"Lulz", no, they didn't.

Claiming that's so demonstrates you're not much better than a typical Nostradamus interpreter.

ETA: if you could actually predict movements like this based on your analysis of the "23 day distribution period" or other such BS, not only could you win the MDC, but you could be astronomically rich.

But you're not.

It's all bullcrap.

so I didn't say all these things prior, mark out the perfect short points in public, and it didnt then roll over and play just out as I was expecting ? I even told you where it would break from. DE NILE.

havent I also said all along that IMO the market is always just going to do what it was going to do, financial "news" is a primarily smokescreen for the gullible, is all.

and for the last time, this "you would be rich" argument is THOROUGHLY RIDICULOUS. I have been at this level of understanding for a few months only now, and it's like me standing there saying

"Look at that pack of Migs!"

and the entire JREF posse replying with a looped line of

"show me your fighter pilot's licence!"

so the only way to settle this being as I am not prepared to share my personal financial details ongoing live with the whole internet, nor put my real trading under any kind of extra performance pressures than it already comes with, is as psionlo suggested I think, with a brand new small but very high leverage account, which I will plug into one of these online verification services so it can be permanently inspected by anybody at any time.

If, instead of using €10k @ 100x leverage and 1% per trade risk, I use €1000 and 500x leverage at 2% per trade risk, for the exact same trade strategy I should be able to replicate the same kind of figures as with 10k @ 100x leverage?

after all why commit extra cash for margin if not required, leverage is very much your friend if you win more than you lose, and if it's successful I will start winding up the leverage everywhere. You will have to give me a week or two to get it set up as my other job is pressing at the moment, but I actually opened a new 500x demo one whilst at a mates having lunch by the beach yesterday, and this is the simplest way I have to explain the very simple math of this system

2 trades, 50/50 win rate, -2% +4% = +2% day 1.

I think 5% per week is perfectly achievable and will be looking to way outperform that really, will let you know when it's up and running, ok?