The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

And would any of those very successful people, unlike you, be able to provide evidence that they're actually making all this money consistently (and in real life) beating the markets over a significant time period?

I'll predict not.

ETA: I do need to add--charting is mostly stupid, and it's self-delusional.

kevsta, charts are nice and colorful, but can you share with us how much (actual) money you've put in and how much (actual) money you've made, after transaction costs, using this system, and over what period of time?

1. there are no significant transaction costs, if a trade is profitable, the figure is NET.
2. figures are peppered through this thread. read it. still matching 2% a week (target) pretty easily.
3. WHAT DONT YOU UNDERSTAND ABOUT 18 MONTHS IN & TESTING SINCE APRIL?!!!!!

I also sent closing statements at end July to 2 people here I trust.

and frankly with everyone elses attitude Im feeling more likely to replace the charts with a load of scat and be done with you.

 

[kevsta]

ETA: I do need to add--charting is mostly stupid, and it's self-delusional.

you need to prove this. and after you've proved anything at all, I might take you vaguely seriously.

I have already given you the opportunity. play marketmaker with me. I'll use my system (and charts) and call trades here, and my wins are your losses yea?

you are all full of waffle and not a single one of you has the confidence to play in public. hilarious.

 

[kevsta]

so yesterday I was talking about the Nikkei from some predictions made the day before

the chart says "due one bounce" (after 3 pushes in one direction, you get a bounce) so for those who can't count to 3, it goes, 1, 2, 3.. 1..

anyone want to guess what happened with the Nikkei last night? #whoevercouldaknown

here was what I was looking for, zero doubt about direction, only whether we would get the stoprun of the lows to allow entry. we didn't so no trade.

 

[kevsta]

Things I Consider Proven With Zero Effective Argument from Anyone

1. There is an independent 3 push cycle in operation.
2. It is possible to foresee "ceilings" and "floors" from which price will turn long in advance
3. Close observation of spread behaviour at the turns is useful.
3. There is an effective way to trade the above observations.

So could anybody start addressing the actual subject matter please?

otherwise, I really am going to decide you are not worth the $30 required to keep the clip2net images up, and just redirect rotating images of my choosing here instead.

 

[kevsta]

day after day, what he says about probabilities the day before, just keep happening. probability is like that though

I thought about just shorting it there and then, but overnight, risky, anything could happen, so didn't. the liklihood from where I closed out is at least the one pullback (inverse bounce) that is now due, down to the 91000 or 90500 ish area, but there's nothing to say it cant stoprun the highs again first.

1, 2, 3, 1
it must be tearing you lot up, but you cannot understand that I have been watching it play out roughly as expected for months and months and months, thousands of times, many many hundreds of trades.

so you can treat me like just another Forex scammer (but without an actual scam, just asking for helpful thoughts in fact) or you can do whatever you want, except, once again, as with the markets are all manipulated thread, the one thing NONE of you can do is challenge the facts and observations I have documented. Everything else, yes, the subject.

(F) FAIL

gee how how I wish I'd had a "proper" education (lmao)

 

[kevsta]

and the bad as well as the good.

this was live and after being in to 120 pips profit, first came back and took me out at zero, stopran the lows again and then went. I missed the entry lastnight, but once again, was I wrong on the probability of a turn at this level?

I think not. early again? yes. so thats an execution fail trade, not a system fail trade. major difference.

ONE simple question, for the second time, somebody step up to the plate please.

IS IT COINCIDENCE THAT PREVIOUS HIGHS OR LOWS ARE ALWAYS BROKEN, BEFORE TREND GOES IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION?

YES OR NO.

 

[kevsta]

and for the Finale, if AAPL gaps past my stoploss set at zero ($470.47) and steals $500k out of the JREF account at open, then I will have also documented the actual robbery

fingers crossed.

 

[kevsta]

haha obviously that should have been 4. I seem to have trouble counting much past 3 these days, as you don't seem to need to very often

Things I Consider Proven With Zero Effective Argument from Anyone

1. There is an independent 3 push cycle in operation.
2. It is possible to foresee "ceilings" and "floors" from which price will turn long in advance
3. Close observation of spread behaviour at the turns is useful.
3. There is an effective way to trade the above observations.

So could anybody start addressing the actual subject matter please?

but seriously, debunk these statements please.

 

[Francesca R]

I really am going to decide you are not worth the $30 required to keep the clip2net images up, and just redirect rotating images of my choosing here instead.

Cool idea you should totally do that. I have been on the stripped-down "mobile" site anyway last 2 weeks so it would still look the same to me.

Let us know how it goes.

 

[kevsta]

Cool idea you should totally do that. I have been on the stripped-down "mobile" site anyway last 2 weeks so it would still look the same to me.

Let us know how it goes.

for a brief hopeful moment there when I saw you had posted, I thought you were about to make me rethink something Francesca, you have done before.

but ha, no, I knew you'd all be more comfortable with lolcats

no wonder no comment on any specifics then huh.

nobody has to read it though do they, and more than 5k views and <..............tumbleweed................>

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

And would any of those very successful people, unlike you, be able to provide evidence that they're actually making all this money consistently (and in real life) beating the markets over a significant time period?

I'm sure there are lots of people on charting forums who can tell us how rich they are.

I mean, really, how much more evidence do you need?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

So could anybody start addressing the actual subject matter please?

I already have, many times. Let me repeat:

 

[kevsta]

Market Correlations - FTSE100 & Cable

these two seemed to have a pretty tight relationship up until 2009. (wonder what the news was)

something fundamental clearly changed anyway. ("bad is good" maybe?)

at intraday level anyway they still seem quite entwined. who thinks that if you were able to successfully predict the next direction of GBPUSD that you couldn't therefore do the same with the index on a short term basis? Goldman Sachs just gave a long FTSE call a couple of weeks ago, what do you reckon? not me.

edit, zoomed as far as it will go too. the correlation seems to switch from positive to negative? or it just entirely all unconnected and everything trades on supply / demand?

 

[kevsta]

I'm sure there are lots of people on charting forums who can tell us how rich they are.

I mean, really, how much more evidence do you need?

we are not ON a charting forum and the charts are only here to show the substance of the discussion that none of you have a single valid idea or response for.

and what with your ridiculous relentless inane trolling, all in all, its a pretty poor show. your lack of intellect to allow you to consider anything outside of a Warren Buffet Forbes Position "how rich are they" sentence is blatantly apparent.

once again, NOBODY makes money in the Forex Market?

lets just say the Bot will have an insert 100x laughing dogs line for rubbish like that.

 

[kevsta]

so if we look at Cable where the cycles have been faultless since the beginning of July.

and zoom into the exact trade where I caught the first push of what then turned out to be (another) three very predictable pushes

it might seem to the casual observer that there was an opportunity here

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I think not. early again? yes. so thats an execution fail trade, not a system fail trade. major difference.

A classic example of "Special Pleading".

When something goes your way, it's confirmation that the system works.

When it doesn't, there's always an excuse to explain it away.

Known logical and psychological errors in thinking.

Which I kinda presaged in my hypothetical "annual kevsta report".

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

A classic example of "Special Pleading".

When something goes your way, it's confirmation that the system works.

When it doesn't, there's always an excuse to explain it away.

Known logical and psychological errors in thinking.

Which I kinda presaged in my hypothetical "annual kevsta report".

I would normally agree with you on this, but even you have to admit that the cycles have been faultless since the beginning of July. Perhaps it's time to stoprun the lows?

 

[kevsta]

GAPPL

and for the Finale, if AAPL gaps past my stoploss set at zero ($470.47) and steals $500k out of the JREF account at open, then I will have also documented the actual robbery

fingers crossed.

lulz, advanced prescience continues. unfortunately however it either didnt gap past my stop but ran into it, or all it proves is that you don't get robbed on demo.

chart shows price gapped to $470.66 (16c past S/L at 470.50) and ran immediately up to about -$350k on the JREF account.

now the only question is retrace or higher, I just took another pop at a retrace, because, just because they get you, doesnt necessarily mean you were wrong.

maybe I am, and that's what demo is for

 

[kevsta]

A classic example of "Special Pleading".

When something goes your way, it's confirmation that the system works.

When it doesn't, there's always an excuse to explain it away.

Known logical and psychological errors in thinking.

Which I kinda presaged in my hypothetical "annual kevsta report".

no its not, that argument is a straw donkey.

as I have continually said, whether or not I can get it right first time every time, has zero relation to whether that was the correct turning point in hindsight.

have I ever said it was easy to do? once? however there is zero doubt that there is a perfect cycle running, whether or not I can hit it every time perfectly just COULD NOT BE less related.

in fact I have gone into GREAT detail to EXPLAIN HOW you lose continually when you were actually ultimately right.

Now, if only real results mean anything to you anyway and you dont want to discuss the ongoing observations because you don't believe any of it, PLEASE dont keep coming back with the same old things all the time?

afterthoughts. because if you dont recognise the difference, between continually facing the right way with hundreds of pips in front of you and occasionally getting entry wrong, and being continually facing the wrong way and mown down by moves of hundreds of pips against your direction, then you're not thinking about this very hard.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

no its not,

Yes, it is.

...that argument is a straw donkey.

No, its not.

Other than you, does anyone else lurking on this thread NOT see "special pleading" at work? "The system works, except when it doesn't, due to X"?

Finally, I really am making an effort to see your patterns as real entities - if they are they will be evidence of something.

Here's my problem:

Look at this chart:

Why could not each of the blue arrows have been counted as an independent "push" upward?

Why could not the red arrow be counted as an independent "push" downward, and why is the "push" up right before it not identified with a blue line as a "push" upwards?

Why are the two downward "pushes" indicated by the yellow arrows not consolidated into one large downward push? If its the little "push" up in the middle that separates them, why is that not identified with a blue line as a "push" upward?

I am still taking the time to peruse this stuff because it would be interesting if there's a "there" there. But to this point, it all seems too subjective and arbitrary to have any real predictive value.