The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

more suggestions from friends, if nobody else wants to play.

"happy to join up as JREF Marketmaking Dept or The Central Scrutinizer's Marketmaking Company"

I would have thought people would be lining up to school me in the finer points of markets, leverage and finance with all your Economics Masters Degrees and wotnot, but it's understandable I suppose.

I wouldn't take the other side of my trades anymore, which is quite ironic really as at about this time last year I had decided that was in fact the only possible way to win, just do exactly the opposite of what you want to.

I even tried that for a while, but still no banana.

 

[kevsta]

interestingly Silver just gapped through the 23% Fib retracement line "resistance" lol

all those "the (down) trend is your friend" lot shorting at "resistance" on a push 3 week just got a shock you can also see the red line at last week's stoprun lows was mysteriously gapped through 5 weeks ago (on a 4hr chart each vertical line is a week) too.

if it wasn't for the rumours of looming threats of the mother of all short squeezes in gold, having hit all those traders short stops now, this is probably a theoretical short from here. but not I.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

OK...

...looking at several of you recent charts, it seems that the blue "1, 2, 3.." lines are somewhat arbitrary, or I'm missing the exact criteria for what a "push" is.

IOW, I could easily put a blue line at smaller "pushes" and come up with different counts.

Are those blue lines being drawn in by a human after the fact, or were they be drawn by an algorithm?

Again, I'm drawn to the old canard of celebrities dying in threes. We can always group things in threes if our criteria are vague as to starting point, stopping point, what counts as a "celebrity", etc. etc.

As far as taking your offer on Apple, just be advised that "buying on a dip" is an alien concept to my class of investors. The price is what it is, and the future value of Apple stock will be determined by the "army" of new products promised by Tim Cook for the fall. If Apple falters, the price will likely begin a long downhill slide. If they come up with something "insanely great", we may watch the price over time surpass its prior highs. The bouncing around in any narrow range is simply considered "noise", and totally uninteresting. If you or anyone else or an algorithm can profit from teasing patterns out if the noise, good for you, but I don't think that affects the broader trajectory that long term investors hope to gain from.

More to follow...

 

[kevsta]

OK...

...looking at several of you recent charts, it seems that the blue "1, 2, 3.." lines are somewhat arbitrary, or I'm missing the exact criteria for what a "push" is.

possibly. it is a distinct and purposeful move upwards, followed by a pause, slight retrace, and then another distinct push.

On Forex that I really focus on primarily, we have very distinct criteria, because the Average Daily Range lines are usually so accurate, we can say that a (daily) SM push should be at least 70 (and probably 90pips depending on the pair) and you will get 3 of them per week, totalling 250-270 pips-ish generally.

If a move doesn't fit that, it's not what we're waiting for. within each daily push, there will also be 3 separate, distinct intraday pushes, visible at 15min chart level, and within each of those.. like a Russian doll, all the way down to the 1min charts.

Obviously as part of this thread, Im now looking at new stuff Im not as familiar with, but I think my eye has settled in relatively well.

IOW, I could easily put a blue line at smaller "pushes" and come up with different counts.

yes, you could, but try it, and trading off them as I've said before, it took me ages to see it, and I was highly motivated, but when the light went on.. talk about hidden in plain sight, it's masterful.

Are those blue lines being drawn in by a human after the fact, or were they be drawn by an algorithm?

just by lil' ol' me. and yes, they are generally drawn in after the fact, however if we are expecting 1,2,3 and it runs as expected, it's not like we didnt know what we were looking for, is it?

Again, I'm drawn to the old canard of celebrities dying in threes. We can always group things in threes if our criteria are vague as to starting point, stopping point, what counts as a "celebrity", etc. etc.

As far as taking your offer on Apple, just be advised that "buying on a dip" is an alien concept to my class of investors. The price is what it is, and the future value of Apple stock will be determined by the "army" of new products promised by Tim Cook for the fall. If Apple falters, the price will likely begin a long downhill slide. If they come up with something "insanely great", we may watch the price over time surpass its prior highs. The bouncing around in any narrow range is simply considered "noise", and totally uninteresting. If you or anyone else or an algorithm can profit from teasing patterns out if the noise, good for you, but I don't think that affects the broader trajectory that long term investors hope to gain from.

More to follow...

I understand all of this, I was just hoping to show you roughly what leveraged games others might be playing with your long term investments in the meanwhile

 

[kevsta]

AAPL question, how many shares are in the "float" ie available for trading?

and is a million share block a lot, would me dropping the whole lot at open move the price, or not? genuine question, anyone have any idea?

ie would I need to distribute them myself slowly into a gently rising market, or is 1m shares ($454million?) insignificant and I wouldn't be selling the last bit at gapped-down prices etc?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

OK...

...looking at several of you recent charts, it seems that the blue "1, 2, 3.." lines are somewhat arbitrary, or I'm missing the exact criteria for what a "push" is.

IOW, I could easily put a blue line at smaller "pushes" and come up with different counts.

Are those blue lines being drawn in by a human after the fact, or were they be drawn by an algorithm?

Again, I'm drawn to the old canard of celebrities dying in threes. We can always group things in threes if our criteria are vague as to starting point, stopping point, what counts as a "celebrity", etc. etc.

As far as taking your offer on Apple, just be advised that "buying on a dip" is an alien concept to my class of investors. The price is what it is, and the future value of Apple stock will be determined by the "army" of new products promised by Tim Cook for the fall. If Apple falters, the price will likely begin a long downhill slide. If they come up with something "insanely great", we may watch the price over time surpass its prior highs. The bouncing around in any narrow range is simply considered "noise", and totally uninteresting. If you or anyone else or an algorithm can profit from teasing patterns out if the noise, good for you, but I don't think that affects the broader trajectory that long term investors hope to gain from.

More to follow...

Otherwise known as "the ones who actually make money".

 

[kevsta]

Otherwise known as "the ones who actually make money".

that must have been really hard not to mention Wazza B & Charlie Monger there mustn't it?

either that or somebody has seen I have twigged how the bot loops and reprogrammed it with new lines over the weekend.

I will add, that from a logical standpoint this statement is utterly ridiculous.

because Forex is a $1.4 quadrillion per annum market, approaching $5trillion a day is now traded, and what with the whole zero sum game and all that, just because most lose, does not mean nobody is making money.

so you are SO far from reality there that it just has to be a bot. I already sent you to the SEC filing where JPM banked not one but 2 100% winning trading quarters in a row, now please will you set the bot parameters to stick to the jokes section only, because thats all the current comment loop programming seems to have installed.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

What don't you understand about 18 months in? and at which point the evidence strongly suggests Im now maybe way ahead of most of the rest.

I think it only fair to give some indication of what I'm looking for as evidence, beyond a whole bunch of charts.

Maybe a future post from you like this...

"Guys...

I know a lot of you doubted my ability to actually profit from the patterns I was learning about when using real money.

As such, I opened a real trading account with $10,000 on August 1, 2013.

I had some initial gains, reaching about $12,400 before some trades went bad and I watched the account dwindle down to $6,700 by the end of September. That would not have happened if I had had the discipline to follow my own rules, but such is life. From then until now, I've managed to drag the account back to just over my starting amount, and as of July 31, 2014, the one year anniversary, the account stands at $11,752.18, for a net annual gain of 10.7%.

I'm not sure if this validates my predictions or not - I know I had stated that I thought my strategy would produce gains far in excess of that. And if I write off my initial losses as part of my learning curve, I did about double my account size from it's lows in September.

Of note is that my country has a 20% tax on short term capital gains, reducing my actual gain to just over $900. Figuring I spent about 6 hours a day average trading over the last year, I won't even attempt to figure my overall hourly income from trading - it would be too depressing.

In any case, I think I've honed my strategy and have learned from my beginner's mistakes and that next year's gains will validate what I've been saying all along."


Anyway, something like that, or something similar where you had enormous gains would go a long way to giving us some "meat" to see if your strategies actually worked. Much more so that yet another set of charts with lines and triangles and insults about muppets and herds.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I think it only fair to give some indication of what I'm looking for as evidence, beyond a whole bunch of charts.

Maybe a future post from you like this...

"Guys...

I know a lot of you doubted my ability to actually profit from the patterns I was learning about when using real money.

As such, I opened a real trading account with $10,000 on August 1, 2013.

I had some initial gains, reaching about $12,400 before some trades went bad and I watched the account dwindle down to $6,700 by the end of September. That would not have happened if I had had the discipline to follow my own rules, but such is life. From then until now, I've managed to drag the account back to just over my starting amount, and as of July 31, 2014, the one year anniversary, the account stands at $11,752.18, for a net annual gain of 10.7%.

I'm not sure if this validates my predictions or not - I know I had stated that I thought my strategy would produce gains far in excess of that. And If I write off my initial losses as part of my learning curve, I did about double my account size from it's lows in September.

Of note is that my country has a 20% tax on short term capital gains, reducing my actual gain to just over $900. Figuring I spent about 6 hours a day average trading over the last year, I won't even attempt to figure my overall hourly income from trading - it would be to depressing.

In any case, I think I've honed my strategy and have learned from my beginner's mistakes and that next year's gains will validate what I've been saying all along."


Anyway, something like that, or something similar where you had enormous gains would go a long way to giving us some "meat" to see if your strategies actually worked. Much more so that yet another set of charts with lines and triangles and insults about muppets and herds.

Don't hold your breath.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

that must have been really hard not to mention Wazza B & Charlie Monger there mustn't it?

either that or somebody has seen I have twigged how the bot loops and reprogrammed it with new lines over the weekend.

I will add, that from a logical standpoint this statement is utterly ridiculous.

because Forex is a $1.4 quadrillion per annum market, approaching $5trillion a day is now traded, and what with the whole zero sum game and all that, just because most lose, does not mean nobody is making money.

so you are SO far from reality there that it just has to be a bot. I already sent you to the SEC filing where JPM banked not one but 2 100% winning trading quarters in a row, now please will you set the bot parameters to stick to the jokes section only, because thats all the current comment loop programming seems to have installed.

Perhaps you can point to which members of the Forbes 400 employ your brand of nonsense "investing". I bet you won't!

 

[kevsta]

Perhaps you can point to which members of the Forbes 400 employ your brand of nonsense "investing". I bet you won't!

lulz, the ol' Forbes 400 line survived the reprogramming then.

once again, trading is not investing, you inhabit a parallel universe, and are most definitely in the wrong thread.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

lulz, the ol' Forbes 400 line survived the reprogramming then.

once again, trading is not investing, you inhabit a parallel universe, and are most definitely in the wrong thread.

But one engages in both to make money. Theoretically, in the case of traders and goldbugs.

So, since it's such a great way to make money, surely someone has gotten fabulously wealthy off it, no? (Hint: I just gave you the answer)

 

[kevsta]

I think it only fair to give some indication of what I'm looking for as evidence, beyond a whole bunch of charts.

Maybe a future post from you like this...

"Guys...

Anyway, something like that, or something similar where you had enormous gains would go a long way to giving us some "meat" to see if your strategies actually worked. Much more so that yet another set of charts with lines and triangles and insults about muppets and herds.

ok, no problem. I understand only real counts for you, and that's fine. it is true, only time will tell. although I have to note that not once has there been a single reference or acknowledgement to my at-times stunning accuracy. (I have been stunned myself, but because I know what I'm looking at I suppose) Noted.

you will hopefully note I have toned down the muppetry and taken to labeling my opposition Retail Traders instead? ..as we all seem to be a bit touchy I might be referring to you individually as such. although as I said, if I am correct here, then we are all muppets to the Forex market.

but for the purposes of my thread, I am not referring to you as muppets or herd, unless you are the specific traders whose accounts I am taking money from. so can we move past that do you think? I think I've probably made the point I intended to.

 

[kevsta]

But one engages in both to make money. Theoretically, in the case of traders and goldbugs.

So, since it's such a great way to make money, surely someone has gotten fabulously wealthy off it, no? (Hint: I just gave you the answer)

this programmer is quite good. I love the way the autoquote deftly sidesteps the unassailable ZERO SUM FACTS and re-loops once again with a gold reference inserted too.

lots of new ideas for the Bot, you can get them made on Fiverr you know and just plug your phrases in and you're away. Twitter account and preliminary testing this week hopefully

 

[kevsta]

Apple some more. so this is a probability challenge, and I can lose.

this could easily run back up and hit my stoploss at zero and go higher from here. easy $million come, easy $million go..

but I think the more likely probability is another large push down (comprised of smaller ones like here) on this chart its easy to see the daily pushes, basically the days high to the days lows. and of course, 3 pushes completed, bounce, like clockwork.

and is that higher spreads I see before me again?

once again any retail shorting the bottom there are smarting with a gap straight past their likely stoploss levels.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

this programmer is quite good. I love the way the autoquote deftly sidesteps the unassailable ZERO SUM FACTS and re-loops once again with a gold reference inserted too.

lots of new ideas for the Bot, you can get them made on Fiverr you know and just plug your phrases in and you're away. Twitter account and preliminary testing this week hopefully

Evasion noted.

 

[kevsta]

Evasion noted.

yes, I know, that's what I said..

"nobody makes money in the Forex markets.."

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

 

[DrDave]

I think I understand almost all of your method now.

1. Put arrows on graph
2. ???
3. Pretend profit

Now if I could just crack step 2, I can play make-believe that I'm a millionaire trader

 

[kevsta]

I think I understand almost all of your method now.

1. Put arrows on graph
2. ???
3. Pretend profit

Now if I could just crack step 2, I can play make-believe that I'm a millionaire trader

haha I'd have to say from your comment Doctor, that you probably don't.

and for your desired purposes step 2 wouldn't be essential either would it?

I've said a few times, its not even "my" method, and there are a lot of people using it more successfully than I.

 

[AdMan]

haha I'd have to say from your comment Doctor, that you probably don't.

and for your desired purposes step 2 wouldn't be essential either would it?

I've said a few times, its not even "my" method, and there are a lot of people using it more successfully than I.

And would any of those very successful people, unlike you, be able to provide evidence that they're actually making all this money consistently (and in real life) beating the markets over a significant time period?

I'll predict not.

ETA: I do need to add--charting is mostly stupid, and it's self-delusional.

kevsta, charts are nice and colorful, but can you share with us how much (actual) money you've put in and how much (actual) money you've made, after transaction costs, using this system, and over what period of time?