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The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

kevsta said:
one should consider, that these charts have time along the X axis and can be drilled into in great depth. and interestingly enough the 3 wave cycles are visible (to me and many others) in every timescale you look at. in the same way the whole weekly cycle from Level 3 to Level 3 appears (to us) as 3 distinct thrusts, and (nearly) always breaks prior lows before going (one exception, the straighaway trade, search it in this thread)

so does each individual primary push consist of 3 waves at 15 minute chart level. and 10. and 5. and 1minute.
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I noticed the same thing.

:crazy:
 
The Central Scrutinizer said:
I noticed the same thing.

:crazy:
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I cant be bothered to do more drawings to school bots with easy pictures any more, if others ask me nicely I might. I think in your instance I will content myself with knowing that if you had 1 million Apple shares I could, with the right resources behind me, in theory have taken currently $1.452million of your money this week, and again, at will :)

if people cant count to 3, given the time axis along the bottom, where its relatively easy to see where it pauses and stops for a while, and then goes again, that's not my problem, its yours, especially if you're a trader.

that move went, over a defined period of time, stopped, then went again.

if you drill into smaller scales, there's another 3 pushes and all the same over-extending through previously defined lines prior to turns, the whole move is like a compressed a spring oscillation through every timescale, with the exact same "hit the stops, hit the stops, pop/drop behaviour. I have no idea how people can really have the faintest idea which way you should be facing, in there. its just the same repetitive, rhythmical, and captivating noise. rather them than me, anyway.

what I have seen though, is advanced traders take live trades at seminars using specialist techniques where once the first interday (during one day only) wave fires, on the retrace they leverage in again extremely heavy aiming at the first 15 or 20 pips of the 2nd push only and can turn a 70 pips overall range trade into 3 or 400 from the one whole push. and it is indeed a high probability set up. because of course, if we see a whole push during the day, then the small scale push 2, obviously worked.

and we see whole pushes every single day, I watch about 20 different "markets" (in the red and blue sense).

risky, yes, but possible to finesse more than one in the 5 times they need, to break even? its definitely possible, at least the one I watched anyway.

and because a savage cant play Playstation right out of the Amazon doesn't mean 8 year olds cant whoop ass at it now, does it?
 
kevsta said:
I think in your instance I will content myself with knowing that if you had 1 million Apple shares I could, with the right resources behind me, in theory have taken currently $1.452million of your money this week, and again, at will :)
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And I'm sure he wouldn't care a damn, because he'd have gotten over $3 million in dividends from Apple this week. And there's nothing theoretical about that.
 
kevsta said:
personally, yes of course. technically?
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Ha ha--So you ask why trading real biggy-levered wonga is different from paper-trades and I exemplify it for ya and your reply amounts to "Well sure I can paper-trade a walk along a 50m high wall as easily as along a 25cm one"

Look hard enough, you may find the answer yourself in that--or maybe that you didn't really ask :-)
 
:) hahaha funniest related message of the week, one of the (trading) board I didnt previously know contacted me after someone told him about this thread. English humor is clearly superior. although he writes like an American, but dryer.

"Hahahaha that's some funny ****

I've been into trading since I lived in France and noticed how extortionate the cross rates were out of a cashpoint compared to spot.

In effect it's like a 5 or 6 pip tax to withdraw your money abroad. I wrote and complained to my bank manager who said it was nothing to do with him and that's how it comes from headquarters. So I went and looked, and Forex was what I found.

One question though, as you're clearly on fire why are you wasting your time with these dweebs?

If it were me I would now pull the clip2net account and replace the images with randomly served pictures of my choosing throughout your threads. but then I would never have gone on there and told them anything anyway."
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sounds like a potential bro :D
 
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Francesca R said:
Ha ha--So you ask why trading real biggy-levered wonga is different from paper-trades and I exemplify it for ya and your reply amounts to "Well sure I can paper-trade a walk along a 50m high wall as easily as along a 25cm one"

Look hard enough, you may find the answer yourself in that--or maybe that you didn't really ask :-)
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no, I am acknowledging completely that human traders tend to plateau and fail as the psychological stresses of big numbers add up. thats what the stats tend to show.

but I've traded on demo from micro to million% and position size numbers is the only difference in the system

what I'm interested in are the theoretical possibilities and limits if you had the perfect (say autistic, my boy is not) trader who was playing for candy bars and felt no emotion. where does the leverage model break down exactly if the genetically perfect emotionless game player is on the controls?

what would happen? platform jams and spikes? I trade on an ECN and although live is a little slower than demo, and slippage etc, it's still fairly quick at low volumes. Obviously if I were trading in bank sized lots, i would have the same liquidity issues that they do, and that our whole system, is in fact based on

so if we take the trade execution as a given for this conversation, what and where are the limits?

dont make me continue to troll you with facts please, I want help not confrontation. :)
 
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timhau said:
And I'm sure he wouldn't care a damn, because he'd have gotten over $3 million in dividends from Apple this week. And there's nothing theoretical about that.
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well, apart from the theoretical wealth required for him to own 1m Apple stocks, obviously ;)

as a thought experiment, perhaps substitute me and my tiny small fry friends, for those whose trading style we seek to emulate, they of the 100% quarters, 2 in a row this year in fact, they with the resources and technology. maybe its not the banks, but the evidence seems to point there to me. and somebody's algorithms are ripping traders at every turn.

it doesnt even matter who. just that they are the unknown winners, while 90% lose. fact.

and substitute Scrut, for all your 401k and investment fund managers.

I don't care if you don't. seriously. I wonder why though.
 
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chuckle chuckle. from Wednesdays analysis

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which bears no relation to this, except as I said before they tried to bore me out of the trade, and a slower descent with wider spreads was required. and we got 4 small gaps instead of one big one. impatience is one of my weaknesses.

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the other trade mentioned in that link, the Nikkei, finally stopran the floor at 13526. you know, the one Ive consistently said. if this accuracy continues I will be renaming my lines to

"virtually certain and until they do, do not trade lines"
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a push below the line I have consistently described as the floor, followed by immediate buying back into the zone and reversal ON the line with the next 28 hours (7x4hr bars) above it again, touching it to. the. pip. once and bouncing.

more chance. I am one lucky dude, innit.

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definitely no 3's here, either. 3 officer? not me, no.. no 3's.. :rolleyes:

close up

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deeper and deeper into the structure they went. close up anatomy of a stoprun.

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How lo u wanna go? this is it, 1 minute per bar

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kevsta said:
I would like to short this, but if it runs through 1700 it is quite likely to run 20 or 30 points up even if it did then retrace and stoprun 1700 and plunge.
[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1375287630-clip-41kb.png[/qimg]

patience required, and take them on demo.
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which is exactly, what it did, it didn't go as high as I thought it might, but it did retrace, then stoprun 1700 again, and drop. thus far, pretty bang on eh? foresaw the possibility of a further fakeout up, that would most likely come back again? :)

There is another clue here to the sharp eyed, a while back in another thread I explained how it is unusual or "unnatural" to see more than 5 or 6 blue or red in a row, and how it becomes exponentially more unusual to see 7, then 8 etc. please count the number of blue bars up into the final highs, and the matching number of reds back down.

that, is "unnatural market action" defined. if you combine it with "enhanced" spreads (on forex anyway) and you think you are at the top of a defined cycle, the probability is, that you going to be right.

Can you get in safely without being robbed? ..is another question entirely. "The Perfect Entry" - I didnt take it, but the perfect entry is defined as the exact place to take the trade at the beginning of the push, where it immediately runs into profit and you never have to sit in negative float waiting for it to go, or watching your stoploss.

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kevsta said:
here's one you Americans might be more interested in, Apple. Am sure lots of you own this one way and another.

[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1375282806-clip-18kb.png[/qimg]

just looking today for the first time, and lo, it's a short :)

[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1375283352-clip-28kb.png[/qimg]

no surprises as yet, but also might be early and the wrong side of another stoprun yet too.
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there was a mild surprise here, I was on the wrong side of another few days distribution at higher prices and stopped. not exactly rare for your first ever demo trade on something though lol. and I am perenially too early.

kevsta said:
ideal target where it gapped up from at least, let's see. I would expect it to bash up and down in that triangle on the monthly chart for maybe a while longer yet (a few bars, so months)
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the second one however, is going a bit better. moving forwards after the basing up and down resolves, these are the probabilities, IMO

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and this is what's going on inside that tiny, tiny monthly pin. just very much business as usual.

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edit. clarification on Apple Trade. it is of course not a given that the price continues down, and this is really where the disputed term otherwise known as manipulation comes in, because unless we see that, at an expected point or higher, nobody is taking that second trade, because it could be about to do one of three other things:

a) run up, hit my stoploss at zero and then roll over and plunge
b) stop run the floor hard and reverse up into 3 upwards cycles
c) surge up "inexplicably" - or it could gap past my stoploss at zero from here and steal my money anyway.

anything can always happen, but the probability over time, is that after push 1 from a reversal top, comes two and three.

that's what we are trading, probability, and only with exact entries signaled by the dirty word.

so as ever, everybody is free to believe what they want to, but these are the facts. from monthly macro charts to 1 minute charts, the same 3 push cycle is running. whether your brain allows you to process the visual input signals correctly to perceive this, does not change the facts.
 
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does anybody actually want me to continue this, or should I just take my mate's advice and replace all the charts with LOLcats instead? :D

on the whole building the perfect human emotionless trader thing, the child has distinct possibilities I think.

I'll start him at age 3 on PacMan which is almost exactly the same thing in fact and when he is sufficiently skilled at that we will move on.

I'm thinking to start with, not even talk about numbers, just drill him on "which way next" based on cycle until that's just instinctive, and we'll start in the very centre on one minute charts which are fast moving and exciting to gamble on, and gradually bring it out to the big picture over time.

then by maybe 6 or so, we'll bring in the numbers and tell him they dont matter, but every time it goes up that's another puppy saved. then just incubate for a couple of years, with "when you've doubled the account 5 times in a row, you can have a puppy.."

what do you reckon? :)
 
Bitcoin

No banks here. and doesn't really look like what Im used to at all. bit lost to be honest. you could start from the line here and count 4 distinct pushes not 5, but its still not my magic number.

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the 15min kind of looks like buying meeting selling at market prices. what a novel idea.

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you can kind of see it a bit in places but then it turns into a shambles again soon after. that site is here http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/

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I need better charts to see this properly but it at this stage it looks like no "market" I ever looked in detail at.

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and some more charts i found and doodled on

http://clip2net.com/s/5xHgYQ

http://clip2net.com/s/5xHlIK

my genuine opinion is that it looks similar in some timescales, you can find pushes of three, but also 2, 4 and more.

maybe its liquidity issues or something, I have no idea, but its way too random to play my game on :)
 
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I doubt more charts are going to help anyone. I actually attempted to comprehend them but got nothing.

That said, I do think it is possible for the little guy to move around big funds and take profits.
 
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