The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

Is "nonsense" the word you were thinking of?

But you're right, it is entertaining and educational. In a "what not to do" kind of way. Didn't Shermer write a book about this sort of thing?

ok, as ever you have nothing of substance, no evidence of any sort, and just your trying-to be-funny one line opinions to add.

you know zero about Forex, zero about trading, and yet you feel you can sling abuse at someone who is willing to make correct predictions beforehand online, and is making money consistently, because er..?

you know better? you are funny. it is very easy to see how you got your fanclub

 

[kevsta]

 

[kevsta]

S&P Futures..

I would like to short this, but if it runs through 1700 it is quite likely to run 20 or 30 points up even if it did then retrace and stoprun 1700 and plunge.

patience required, and take them on demo.

here's one you Americans might be more interested in, Apple. Am sure lots of you own this one way and another.

just looking today for the first time, and lo, it's a short

again, demo only for the moment. I pressed sell "2.00" but I think its blocks of 100 shares.

no surprises as yet, but also might be early and the wrong side of another stoprun yet too.

ideal target where it gapped up from at least, let's see. I would expect it to bash up and down in that triangle on the monthly chart for maybe a while longer yet (a few bars, so months)

 

[kevsta]

EURJPY reverses.

as does USDJPY.

I dont trade this one, just watch it for clues elsewhere.

 

[kevsta]

Euro performs Crazy Ivan. just imagine thinking it was going to break out north first, to be gapped down about 60 pips, then thinking quick get in short

some retail pain was felt here today chaps. muppets got mangled, bigtime.

now that's what we're talking about. in an ideal world price will edge back up to my purple lines again so I can get in more and higher, but with a 60 pip stoprun, the probability is most likely down from here now, watch this space

 

[Almo]

data mining
cherry picking

 

[kevsta]

Now that I know what a "martindale" is, one of those two schools of thought sounds a lot like that - systematically increasing a stake in the hopes of getting back to even..

see here is a perfect example of why a staged entry strategy is a better approach if you turn out to be actually right.

thankfully I had the discipline to wait to see what happened with the first half of the position, before using the second, I got stopped out on the first 2 parts, and then so waited for developments, and still thinking I was right committed the last half at the very top, it would appear.

if I had taken this all in one go, it would be over and a 1.2% loss, it could still be, but now it looks like maybe not after all, and even with this retrace thus far I'm now showing as up more than I lost on the first half.

oh, and it's Martingale, I think you might find. ..this is not the Martingale you seek

For the record chaps, if anybody thinks it's easy to hit the sell button where I did there, this what what it looked like..

fancy your chances having already had it run against you and lost money?

now, it looks like this below, but if you think that's an easy thing to re-train yourself to do, you are sorely mistaken, it takes practice, nerve, and a confidence in your system's overall probabilities and risk:reward.

so the fact that I make mistakes and no system can ever be perfect notwithstanding, this is not exactly guesswork, is it?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

MartinGALE.

I stand corrected!

BTW, your descriptions of what the charts are telling you have lost me completely.

Did you make money today, post commissions, on today's patterns?

 

[kevsta]

MartinGALE.

I stand corrected!

BTW, your descriptions of what the charts are telling you have lost me completely.

lol, apologies, and no worries, please do ask if you'd like more detailed explanations.

edit, after thought, you probably mean "BTFD" and "BTFATH" dont you? "Buy the ******* Dip" is an old trader expression for when things are just going up inexplicably, but of late it has been replaced (it seems on the S&P at least) with "Buy The ******* All Time Highs"

Did you make money today, post commissions, on today's patterns?

cashed out today thus far +1.18% this morning, -0.9% on the EU stopouts = +0.28% portfolio size currently today.

however the second half of the EU trade is currently about +1.3% account size in open float (trade still running) with 0.3% account size at risk.

so in effect, I can be stopped out at about zero NET on the day, cash out now for +1.5%, or wait and see what happens.

and the last is what Im going to do, because at worst I'll be at breakeven today, and at best, if that was the trend exhaustion candle that I shorted the top of today, then we have quite likely a good 3 pushes down coming.

that''s potentially 250-300 pips, or about a 7-10% account size win, so I think it's worth letting it run a while for possibly only another €30 (0.3% acc size) loss.

0.3% : 7-10% is pretty good risk reward, no?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

ok, as ever you have nothing of substance, no evidence of any sort, and just your trying-to be-funny one line opinions to add.

you know zero about Forex, zero about trading, and yet you feel you can sling abuse at someone who is willing to make correct predictions beforehand online, and is making money consistently, because er..?

you know better? you are funny. it is very easy to see how you got your fanclub

You're right, I don't know anything about Forex or "trading", but I know about investing and making money. I also know nonsense when I see it. And I'm seeing it.

data mining
cherry picking

Yep. You forgot witchcraft and mumbo jumbo.

 

[kevsta]

You're right, I don't know anything about Forex or "trading", but I know about investing and making money.

yea right Forbes 400 Warren Buffett Charlie Munger manlove blag blah blah

this thread is called The Markets Charts & Trading Thread" for a reason. its not the "Rubes who buy stocks from brokers thread" -start your own.

I also know nonsense when I see it. And I'm seeing it.

Yep. You forgot witchcraft and mumbo jumbo.

perhaps you missed the Euro cycle down a couple of weeks back where I pointed out that Goldman;s Stolper had called a long, publicly predicted he would lose, and then having seen the first push down, talked people through the second, and third pushes, traded a couple of them, explained the price wasnt going to reverse just yet, because there would be a final thrust down first (there was) and then I took the reversal trade long again from the very bottom.

very irritatingly I had to go traveling for a bit and the whole 3 cycles ran back up in a single day while I was on the plane.

this happened over the course of about a week or so, no cherry picking, PLUS, the price stopped and reversed, on a line I had drawn in 300 pips higher

TO. THE. PIP.

I already told you, I lied, I'm just psychic, now give me the $million.

or it all could just have been a (weekly, pretty much) coincidence.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

this thread is called The Markets Charts & Trading Thread" for a reason.

And I'm here to laugh at the rubes who believe in it (but not anyone who is a member of this forum). It is a skeptics forum, after all.

 

[kevsta]

And I'm here to laugh at the rubes who believe in it (but not anyone who is a member of this forum). It is a skeptics forum, after all.

so do you think you could manage any kind of coherent argument of any sort?

anything specific you don't believe in? markets? trading? forex? cycles of 3?

what exactly.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

so do you think you could manage any kind of coherent argument of any sort?

anything specific you don't believe in? markets? trading? forex? cycles of 3?

what exactly.

The nonsense this thread is about.

 

[psionl0]

Dumb it down Kevsta. I don't understand your jargon-laden posts or charts.

 

[kevsta]

Dumb it down Kevsta. I don't understand your jargon-laden posts or charts.

lulz, I have and am. if people dont understand jargon, please ask for clarification?

 

[kevsta]

The nonsense this thread is about.

the only nonsense in this thread is coming from your keyboard as usual.

 

[psionl0]

if people dont understand jargon, please ask for clarification?

I'm afraid to ask.

I fear that your idea of a glossary would make wikipedia look like a set of cliff notes in comparison.

 

[kevsta]

no please do, because if you're not understanding, my 2 lurkers wont either?

Euro trade update, approaching 100 pips profit (+3.5% account size) and looking quite likely to run the same again now.

 

[kevsta]

In another thread, I wrote this, it belongs in here really. this is how I approach trading, and have only been successful since doing so.

... it took me ages to "see" them [charts] too. all you need to do to really understand though is to get involved, and see how consistently and efficiently a supposedly random process takes your money.

an approaching 100% first time trader account blowup rate is not random at all, it is very much part of the overall SM strategy.

you're just not thinking about it the right context. for a moment, just forget we are looking at charts of "real" markets, and assume it is just a man-made computer game (like a chess game) that runs the same cycle over and over but with infinite varieties. your opponent is the computer, and it will do everything it can to outwit you (coming back to take your money first, before going, even when you were right, etc)

you have to think about the actual transactions going on all the way through there, put yourself in the position of all the traders who are bullish and are buying as it looks like breaking out upwards, how many times did it fake out at the top, before taking their money?

all the traders who see it falling again and short, only to be whiplashed upwards and stopped out again. those violent moves downwards are SM exiting their longs, but then supporting the price in the ever-narrowing range, to ensure the previous few days traders in either direction are trapped in negative float.

try look past the colors and see the traps the game sets, and how efficiently the cycle always plays out in the end, despite infinite intraday perceived randomness. (added picture to show cycle 1 pushing anyway, even with a crazy news spike fakeout the opposite direction)

then just play the game, learn it's traps as best you can, until you get good enough to win at least as much as, if not more than you lose ( %) because that basically is all it is.

I understand your skepticism, truly I do. I can barely believe that the evidence from all my investigation and testing appears to point to this being the *truth* myself. but it would make total sense of why it's so damn difficult to win though, wouldn't it? how many people can even beat a chess game?

that, and the fact that it does appear to work, make it a reasonably compelling theory worthy of deep investigation, to me.

the point is, that whether or not what is going on behind the scenes to make it work like this, is the kind of thing we suspect or not, if you just treat it like it is, you can win. quite a bit. what I am attempting to do here is discuss all possibilities about why that is, with hopefully some intelligent thought past the same old statistical cliches.

Whether it's manipulation or not is actually immaterial if the observations are correct. ..maybe it's just normal market functioning and I am actually psychic?

But really, once again, is anybody here really actually going to argue that these same old banks would not manipulate things if they could get away with it? In black box systems, that nobody else understands, never mind has any powers to regulate, in a market that isnt a currency exchange at all, it's a virtual contract trading world owned by the big banks, and in the words of Goldman Sachs in a court case about theft of their proprietary marketmaking algorithm code said:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleynikov

On July 3, 2009, he was arrested by FBI agents at Newark Liberty International Airport after Goldman raised the alarm over a suspected security breach. He was accused of improperly copying computer source code that performs "sophisticated, high-speed and high-volume trades on various stock and commodity markets", as described by Goldman. According to Assistant United States Attorney Joseph Facciponti, "the bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways."[6]

give me a break people.