The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

haha News just out, seemed to fit in with the GBP cycle reversal ok that's a 7:1 risk reward at my take profit, or +2.2% account size. it was so violent I was taken out instantly which is irritating as given the chance I would have only partially closed, because I think it will just keep going now, looking to get back in again long given half a chance.

also saw this a little while back and played the game with it.

Zing! once again, cycle has no problem with the news data..

The Euro spike hasnt taken me out at over 133 yet, it might quite likely retrace all the way back down and keep going. that would be nice

as I said, very clever how whatever the news is, is doesnt interrupt the actual day to day business one little bit.

and frankly, if anybody still thinks I cant perform better than chance, I think you're delusional. and let me clarify this, its not because I'm "special" many many others know and see it too, it is because from my watching this day in day out for months, there is definitely *something* going on here.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Well said.

Warren Buffett (a "rube" apparently) has 50 billion. When a chart trader (or gold bug) gets to 50 billion, then I will listen to their advice. Heck, if any of them even manage to make a billion, I'll take note.

 

[kevsta]

kevsta,

A quick note...

I'm not sure if it's something new, or if I just started noticing it more, but...

A lot of condescension and name calling have crept into your posts. ..

Recently, traditional investors are "rubes".

no, please dont you take that personally, it was aimed at one particular poster only, not people with portfolios in general.

I think "muppets" are those attempting to play your game, only not as well. That may be similar to "the herd" that you're so obviously smarter than. I think there are probably others, but the general tone is what I'm referring to.

Goldman Sachs coined the term "Muppets" for their clients. Im just borrowing it to apply to the losing traders. I have nothing against them in particular, except they are part of a group I dont want to be a member of.

What I'm trying to say is there's nothing new in what you're attempting here - it has a long, and I think deservedly sordid history of failure behind it.

Yes, I understand that, and am fairly certain I understand why, too.

I guess this ended up being more than a "quick note". Anyway, just beware when you start to see yourself as superior to or smarter than others. Maybe you are, but pride goeth before a fall.

yes am also well aware of that too, please dont get me wrong, Im not looking to offend anybody (maybe one exception) but I'm trying to be a bit contraversial and make people wonder if the whole world is being ripped off systematically every day in a market that nobody's even heard of, never mind cares about, but affects everybody, everyday, pretty much.

what I'm trying to make people wonder, is how and why price moves like this. this is not intended to be a demonstration of my trading skills, I would liike people to accept that I have a reasonable grasp of the everyday movement of something that I dont understand the works of at all, and would really like to.

however for you to all see anything here, I do need to supply multiple examples to make my case. "evidence" I would prefer I didnt have to back it up with my own money successfully first to even be taken seriously enough to discuss.. but thats what happened, and here we are.

now if we could move past me having to prove I have the faintest idea what Im talking about and onto the observations I have, there's lots more interesting stuff I'd like to talk about.

and I'd be very glad to answer questions on anything Ive posted.

apologies if anybody reading is taking offence, it is unintended, I am only trying to inject humor into otherwise very boring charts.

 

[kevsta]

Well said.

Warren Buffett (a "rube" apparently) has 50 billion. When a chart trader (or gold bug) gets to 50 billion, then I will listen to their advice. Heck, if any of them even manage to make a billion, I'll take note.

[[[[[[[[[[[[[[yawn]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

... I'm trying to be a bit contraversial and make people wonder if the whole world is being ripped off systematically every day in a market that nobody's even heard of, never mind cares about, but affects everybody, everyday, pretty much.

CT forum is thataway ==============>

 

[kevsta]

CT forum is thataway ==============>

please discuss the facts presented otherwise I'm too busy for low class trolling

 

[Fast Eddie B]

this thread is called The Markets Charts & Trading Thread" for a reason. its not the "Rubes who buy stocks from brokers thread" -start your own.

I took it as a general, not as a specific, condemnation.

But its still possible to criticize an investment strategy without the name calling.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

please discuss the facts presented otherwise I'm too busy for low class trolling

Present facts instead of mumbo jumbo and I'll comment.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I took it as a general, not as a specific, condemnation.

Indeed. Because just about all investors buy shares fom brokers. Therefore, all those investors are rubes.

 

[kevsta]

Indeed. Because just about all investors buy shares fom brokers. Therefore, all those investors are rubes.

this is pretty funny, the massive "rubes" bite going on here it's ok for you to do it, along with everything else but doesn't like it back much, does he?

if you would stop talking nonsense in a thread that demands the vaguest knowledge of the subject past Warren Buffet's Forbes # position, I might not have addressed you (amongst other boiler-room fed Rubes obviously) as such.

but you have made a 40k post career out of it.

 

[kevsta]

So back to the subject matter if that's alright?

the commonly held belief is that markets are all seeing all knowing and random. and that they are random because news etc is unpredictable. However, as I have shown, this is partially true on an intraday basis, there are indeed wild swings, however, as this chart shows (and it really is everywhere) they either fit the whole months news to the cycle with much pre-planning required obviously, or should we assume that's realistically impossible?

because if we do, then we have a market cycle here that is independent of all the noise we hear and are told. and people think this "Forex" thing doesn't affect them?

yea, right, FX is in no way connected to anything (or everything) else, is it? you dont think this kind of correlation applies to all your investments, all the time?

 

[lomiller]

lomiller, do you remember you saying people couldn't sell the yen and buy the Nikkei?

What I remember is you claiming the Nikkei was being driven up by investors outside Japan who were also selling Yen. I explained that this was impossible, and you tried to shift the goalpost to bets for/against the Nikkei on other exchanges rather than purchases which would have impacted Japanese stock prices.

The possibility of such trades is of course irrelevant to your claim that the downward pressure on the yen and upward pressure on the Nikkei were caused by “foreign smart money investors buying the Nikkei and selling yen”

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

What I remember is you claiming the Nikkei was being driven up by investors outside Japan who were also selling Yen. I explained that this was impossible, and you tried to shift the goalpost to bets for/against the Nikkei on other exchanges rather than purchases which would have impacted Japanese stock prices.

The possibility of such trades is of course irrelevant to your claim that the downward pressure on the yen and upward pressure on the Nikkei were caused by “foreign smart money investors buying the Nikkei and selling yen”

You just need to draw more circles and lines on your charts and it will become apparent.

 

[kevsta]

What I remember is you claiming the Nikkei was being driven up by investors outside Japan who were also selling Yen. I explained that this was impossible, and you tried to shift the goalpost to bets for/against the Nikkei on other exchanges rather than purchases which would have impacted Japanese stock prices.

lets not quibble about who said what, I think you misunderstood what I meant, at worst. I also dont think you'd thought very seriously about actual mechanics rather than economic theory, but that's ok too.

The possibility of such trades is of course irrelevant to your claim that the downward pressure on the yen and upward pressure on the Nikkei were caused by “foreign smart money investors buying the Nikkei and selling yen”

well I stand by that, unless you have a better explanation for this? as the post above shows the direct correlation between the USDJPY & the Nikkei, and my relatively successful trading system calls this the "Smart Money Cycle", and, as you can see there is the exact same long trade setup on a weekly chart, exactly the same thing I have been trading publicly for the last few days..?

otherwise, if you have a better theory, I'm all ears? I will of course require you to trade based on it successfully first for a while before I consider it, the same as was applied to me..

 

[kevsta]

I bet you can also find patterns in clouds and faces on Mars.

I missed this. want to bet me money I couldn't find and trade them ?

I just got stopped out of Apple (demo) thing gaps around like a crazy horse, there's really something dubious about the way stocks trade IMO.

You'd have to pick something from my platform though. how about you suggest a random off the wall wierd currency pair and I school you on trading it right here?

 

[kevsta]

kevsta,

to chase after pips and hope, at the end of any given day, that you've managed to tease out a gain, jockeying around in the "noise" to maybe get a percent here and a percent there.

and this. I'm not sure you really understand this properly, the concept of leverage, risk:reward and profit. you're making out like it's pennies, but you dont seem to understand that it is proportional to the stake?

for example, how much did your portfolio go up last year? (and when was the last time you banked 2% before breakfast, while we're at it? )

say, you had given me a $1 million trading account, and I had applied these same series of trades to that, then this (which is screenshot of the program on one of the big screens I trade from rather than laptop for analysis work and forums) would mean that I earnt $120,000 since June 24th.

Im happy to send you the link to the whole statement for verification via PM

so does your superior (to all this penny scratching) portfolio return at that rate annualized? never mind in 5 weeks? and does it give you the safety of knowing the money is banked and can't be hurt by a market crash tomorrow?

I think that you both underestimate the potential, and the advantages (if it can be made to work, obviously, big if, or in fact for most people, it can't, lets be honest.)

but I wouldnt dismiss it offhand like you seem to, 20 pips a day recurring with a compounding account will make you fabulously wealthy in a decade.

 

[kevsta]

and so back to events, dont worry im not going to chronicle all my trades, only the funny ones are of interest. this, fired up into profit, retraced all the way back and stopped me out, with a proper stoprun this time. how many retail traders do you think didn't get out and got hit in one direction or the other too? quite a few I would wager

if you were live in that you had to be quick, or be wiped out. unless you were long from where I was in the right direction, obviously, but then they still got me anyway, its highly likely, with the board now cleared of orders, this runs off up again

how many of the retail traders laughed at the utter cheek of the game and calmly took it again immediately, because they recognize the game move? not many, I would also wager?

the point is, that I have high confidence in the high probabilities of these trades, over time. this has not come from their teachings really, I deviate quite a lot from their very conservative strategy, but I have made it mine, and can see it myself now and have my own rules.

this confidence has been building steadily with my skill, and with realizing that "yes, it's quite possibly really real"

you might not win all of them, but who cares, like sales, its a numbers game, and if you take 100 of even this (one, there are many trade entries) I've shown you properly, you will win more than you lose (win/loss ratio)

and if you do that, at 2;1 risk reward, you could get quite rich, quite quickly.

I have €20 at stake on the Aussie, and I have more than enough faith in this cycle, (through my own work and observation) that might be €250 tomorrow, that I can't wait to get back into the trade AUD has also slid a long way lately, so if I have called the reversal (and hopefully you'd have to admit I have at least a 50:50 chance of doing that now?) ..it might just carry on going.

so once again, is this really technical analysis as you know it? come on, its not is it?

I would venture to say there are very few traders playing the red and blue game quite like me, and that has to be a good thing.

 

[psionl0]

amigo, you might not have grasped the full extent of my immersion into this since I saw the potential nearly a year ago, 16-18hr days 7am-3am quite often, watching markets and price action, testing testing testing and attempting to internalize the strategy with what you see all the time. I think I am almost there now.

Man, making money the easy way sure is a lot of work!

If I am reading you correctly, you are basing your buy/sell decisions on the price history as revealed in the charts. Before I gave up my day job, I would like to know a little more about the underlying factors behind the price changes since any change in these factors would render the patterns you have observed moot.

 

[kevsta]

Man, making money the easy way sure is a lot of work!

nobody said it was the easy way, far from it. what it is though, is potentially access to more money than most could dream of for what people perceive would be an easy job, which is why the lure is so strong, to the lazy ..

If I am reading you correctly, you are basing your buy/sell decisions on the price history as revealed in the charts. Before I gave up my day job, I would like to know a little more about the underlying factors behind the price changes since any change in these factors would render the patterns you have observed moot.

man, me too..

what I've got to work with though, is the facts that a few large players process orders for hundreds of billions in minutes for clients sometimes, on their own proprietary marketmaking software and trade their own accounts simultaneously. they also regularly pull off 100% trading quarters. so in all liklihood, IMO, they probably have something to do with it lol

the cycles also run back years, certainly clearly since there has been electronic charts, I've looked.

from what i can see fundamentals only affect long term movement and intraday movement is pretty much cyclical

and actually so is the long term too, fundamentals or not

 

[kevsta]