The "Hindenburg Omen" now statistically confirmed, and we just had another one.

[kevsta]

not very bothered about revolutions but a multi-thousand point DOW short would be quite nice at some point.

 

[The Don]

not very bothered about revolutions but a multi-thousand point DOW short would be quite nice at some point.

Unfortunately that's about the level of usefulness of the prediction capability of the Hindenberg Omen - at some point in the future (but we don't know when) the markets will take a significant dive.

 

[timhau]

The day this thread started the S&P 500 closed at 1631.38. Right now it's at 1706 and change. I might actually want to sell some of my shares within the next 6-9 months so... could we have a few more Hindenburg Omens, please?

 

[Weak Kitten]

Is Muldur going to come back and discuss this or is he just going to wait until the laughter dies down and we all forget about this?

 

[jimbob]

If enough people believe it, then it might become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

When enough ppl believe in a risk, then the risk may be avoided - a self-defeating prophesy.

In some cases, yes but in this case it would act to depress prices. Believers would want to sell to get out, or not buy.

 

[Mister Earl]

I prefer the Earlwellian omen. It's statistically correct more than 77.7% of the time. It predicts market variation only on the days of the week ending in -y.

 

[kevsta]

3 more Hindies in the last 4 days. he's going to get lucky via stopped clock syndrome soon anyway.

 

[Corsair 115]

DAMIEN! Oh, the humanity...

 

[timhau]

Now the world is really going to end: famed attention whore financial guru Marc Faber predicts a crash -- and he should know, he's got a 1500% success rate for predicting 30 of the last 2 crashes! The research is very complete and impressive, we're going down, folks!

 

[kevsta]

4 Hindies in 5 days this week. but it looks highly likely that we are playing out the top of a longish distribution cycle, I do think there's probably some more downside imminent shortly.

and the Hindenberg only needs a 2% drop to be technically verified doesn't it?

if you can't reliably predict that when its been pushing new all time highs for months now anyway, then it's really not much use, is it.

 

[timhau]

Anything that predicts a 2% movement in the market is useless, period.

Except if it predicts it within a day with significant accuracy, that is.

 

[kevsta]

Anything that predicts a 2% movement in the market is useless, period.

Except if it predicts it within a day with significant accuracy, that is.

hmm. disagree with your timescales, I have no problem waiting a week for a 2% move as long as I can take it at 0.2% risk, that's fine.

 

[epix]

Anything that predicts a 2% movement in the market is useless, period.

Except if it predicts it within a day with significant accuracy, that is.

That's a mighty lay view of the works. D >= 2% (stock market) is a significant deviation and whoever is able to predict that during the next trading week D occurs is a more than a well-informed person.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

That's a mighty lay view of the works. D >= 2% (stock market) is a significant deviation and whoever is able to predict that during the next trading week D occurs is a more than a well-informed person.

They would also be quite wealthy. Which they're not.

 

[kevsta]

The day this thread started the S&P 500 closed at 1631.38. Right now it's at 1706 and change. I might actually want to sell some of my shares within the next 6-9 months so... could we have a few more Hindenburg Omens, please?

well at least you got your wish. 1677 currently, and if we get a "floor fall out" day 1631 is entirely possible again in a few hours.

presumably you have individual shares rather than S&P index shares though?

..want me to look see which way I think they'll probably be gapping next?

 

[timhau]

Yeah, please do tell me what the heck is going on with Teva. I'm not about to sell that, I'm just wondering what's keeping it from staying above $40. I might actually buy more, if I wasn't trying to hoard cash for home improvement.

 

[AdMan]

3 more Hindies in the last 4 days. he's going to get lucky via stopped clock syndrome soon anyway.

Uhm yeah, "stopped clock syndrome". That's what I thought too.

What nonsense.

 

[kevsta]

sorry wrong thread, go here re S&P rolling over

 

[timhau]

I wonder if Muldur cares to comment on this:

“It’s just a technical signal that is far better for sound bites and articles than it is for investment purposes,” says Adam Grimes, chief investment officer at Waverly Advisors. “It does come around turning points, but it also just comes at random points in the market – a lot.”

…

“If you had shorted the market on each signal, then what we find is that, frankly, like most technical signals, it’s the same as flipping a coin,” says Mr Grimes.

Source

 

[Puppycow]

End of week 7:
NYSE Composite: 9,618.51 up 2.79% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,543.74 up 1.90% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,692.09 up 3.15% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)

All three up again for the week.

Just for the record, after more than 20 weeks since the original prediction was made, the 4-month window in which the hypothesized crash would occur is now over.

Week 20+:
NYSE Composite: 9,982.69 up 6.69% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,392.20 up 0.91% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,744.66 up 6.35% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)

All three still up, but the DJIA is a laggard. The other indices are much broader of course. The famous Dow index only includes 30 stocks, whereas the S&P 500 contains, as its name suggests, 500 stocks and the NYSE composite contains all stocks listed on the NYSE.