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The "Hindenburg Omen" now statistically confirmed, and we just had another one.

Muldar, there is very easy way to convince people.

Make a good sized bet based on that model, post the bet to JREF.

Compare to other models over time, if you don't put skin in the game, then no one is going to take you seriously.
 
All I have to add is that I really like it (in a cinematic sort of way) when obscure and esoteric economic predictions and theories read like they're taken from right out of the Necronomicon itself. :D
 
Nobody else finds this as funny as I do.
I'm left all alone, giggling into my own hand.

Well, at least I can crack myself up, I guess.
 
Fudbucker said:
Not impressed.
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Within a couple of days of me posting that, we had another 1% down day.

We had one again yesterday, and are likely to add to the losses today when all is said and done. Europe lost almost 2% yesterday alone.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-things-know-opening-bell-113542657.html

The most relevent factoids bolded below:

Markets in Asia got slammed in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng fell 2.9%, and the Shanghai Composite fell 2.8%. European markets are in the red across the board, with France and Germany taking it the worst, both down 2.5%. In the United States, futures point to a negative open.

Gold is tanking this morning. The shiny yellow metal is down more than 5% today. It's been falling since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference yesterday, in which he suggested that quantitative easing could be completely finished by mid-2014, but the selling really got started overnight and a lot of the damage has been done this morning in European trading. Right now, it's trading right around $1300, but it hit a low of $1285 earlier.

HSBC's flash China PMI survey revealed that the contraction in Chinese manufacturing accelerated in June. The headline index fell to 48.3 (a 9-month low) from 49.2 in May. Economists predicted just a slight tick down to 49.1.

Markit's flash eurozone PMI survey indicated that business conditions continue to deteriorate in June, albeit at the slowest pace of contraction in 15 months. The headline index rose to 48.9 from 47.7 in May, exceeding consensus estimates for a smaller advance to 48.1. In Germany, however, manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 from last month's 49.4 reading, indicating an accelerating pace of contraction in the eurozone core.

U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 354,000 during the week ended June 15 from 336,000 the week before. Economists were looking for a smaller increase to 340,000. Continuing claims edged down to 2.951 million during the week ended June 8 – below consensus estimates – from 2.991 million the week before.

Markit's flash U.S. PMI survey revealed that the pace of expansion in American manufacturing unexpectedly slowed in June. The headline index fell to 52.2 from May's 52.3 reading, defying consensus estimates for an advance to 52.7.
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How many times do they have to get it right before people listen? 30 for 30 of the last 30 confirmed Hindenbergs. May about to become 31.
 
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IllegalArgument said:
Muldar, there is very easy way to convince people.

Make a good sized bet based on that model, post the bet to JREF.

Compare to other models over time, if you don't put skin in the game, then no one is going to take you seriously.
Click to expand...

The OP article I posted shows the mathematical and historical proof of the calculations. Why should it matter if I "have skin in the game"? I don't need to PLAY football to understand how it is played. And if I DID have investment money, I sure as Hades wouldn't be risking it on a weak, rigged stock market.
 
Wait, the Luciferian Index of Omens and Portents says all hell is breaking loose, but GOLD is DOWN in value?

How does that work?
 
Muldur said:
How many times do they have to get it right before people listen? 30 for 30 of the last 30 confirmed Hindenbergs. May about to become 31.
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The first 30 don't really count unless you can show that the current criteria were known beforehand. It's easy to look at past data and try to find patterns retroactively. It seems in hindsight that presidents elected in a year that ends in a zero are more likely to be assassinated. Do you think that predicts the likelihood of future presidents being assassinated?
 
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there's been another omen today btw, the 7th now.

Hindy's setting himself up for some abuse if nothing happens now.
 
Puppycow said:
The first 30 don't really count unless you can show that the current criteria were known beforehand. It's easy to look at past data and try to find patterns retroactively.
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It's called statistical analysis...perhaps you should look it up.
 
The Central Scrutinizer said:
Which is probably why you don't have investment money.
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The stock market is rigged in favor of institutional investors and manipulative corporations, as any number of exposes have disclosed. The "little guy" has little hope of ever beating Big Finance at its own game.

Furthermore, the stock market has become so decoupled from legitimate economic activity as to be next to useless as a barometer of real economic health.

The real economy is still stuck in the Great Recession/early Great Depression II: high UE, hours cut, offshoring all over the place, government about to legitimize millions of job-stealing illegals and expand H1B program, etc.

Sooner or later, even a decoupled stock market has to come crashing down when the real economy tanks.
 
Muldur said:
The stock market is rigged in favor of institutional investors and manipulative corporations, as any number of exposes have disclosed. The "little guy" has little hope of ever beating Big Finance at its own game.
Click to expand...

Perhaps you could post links to some of these exposes. Or, explain the exact way in which it is rigged. Who are the members of "Big Finance"?

Muldur said:
Furthermore, the stock market has become so decoupled from legitimate economic activity as to be next to useless as a barometer of real economic health.

The real economy is still stuck in the Great Recession/early Great Depression II: high UE, hours cut, offshoring all over the place, government about to legitimize millions of job-stealing illegals and expand H1B program, etc.

Sooner or later, even a decoupled stock market has to come crashing down when the real economy tanks.
Click to expand...

Buy gold!!111!!!!!
 
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